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  1. #1361
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 16, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar took advantage once again of the delay in the offensive of the US currency (or does not believe in it) and went up to 26 points yesterday. But this growth in technical terms has not changed anything, the price divergence with the Marlin oscillator remains, the upper and the lower targets remain unchanged. Today, the Fed's FOMC is more likely to announce a reduction in the QE program or at least an intention to do so in January. Such a statement should cool the ardor of speculators. We are waiting for the decline of the Australian to the nearest support of 0.7500 (low of December 2017), then to 0.7440.

    Based on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator does not reduce confidence in the downward trend section, declining in its own channel. The Kruzenshtern line is approaching the target level of 0.7500, this level is of particular importance and its overcoming can provoke an accelerated fall in the price.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold

    Gold price is once again moving higher above the key resistance of $1,850. If bulls manage to hold above $1,850 and break above recent highs at $1,874, we should then expect a move towards $1,900 and higher.

    Gold price has made an important higher low at $1,820 and is now breaking above the Ichimoku cloud once again. This is a bullish sign. Support is at $1,847 and next at $1,820. Gold bulls need to defend these two levels. Breaking below $1,820 will bring Gold price below $1,800. However so far this is not the most probable scenario. The most probable scenario for now is a move above $1,874 towards $1,913-31. Both tenkan-sen (Red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) are below price. The Chikou span (black line indicator) is above the candlestick body. This is also bullish. All signs in the 4 hour chart support the bullish case.

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  3. #1363
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 18, 2020

    USD/JPY
    Yesterday, the yen moved under the target level of 103.18, but failed to settle below it. This morning the price is already above this level and it may not fall towards the target of 102.35. In order to move to the first target along the MACD line in the 104.10 area, there are still no conditions on the lower timeframe. The situation is neutral.

    The growth rates are higher, and being able to settle above the embedded price channel line (104.42), paves the way for the price to reach the upper line of the price channel in the 105.70 area, but it is too early to talk about it. There is a 60% probability that the price can return to the area under 103.18 and continue to decline to the target of 102.35.

    The four-hour chart shows that the first reversal signal will appear when the signal line of the Marlin oscillator goes into the positive area, and in order to do so the price needs to rise by about 30 points, which will correspond to the price of 103.60, and this is already close to the MACD line (107.75). When making a decision to buy, we recommend that you wait until the price goes above this indicator line. The current situation is not trading.

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  4. #1364
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for December 21, 2020


    Crypto Industry News:
    A recently released US Department of Justice audit of the practices of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in relation to Darknet criminal investigations found law enforcement in a mess - with an overarching "cryptocurrency support strategy."

    According to the public version of the audit released on Thursday, the FBI's current efforts to investigate the Dark Web are - perhaps ironically - hampered by a "decentralized" set of practices, policies and training programs, and fragmented intelligence leading to "redundant" efforts.


    Technical Market Outlook:
    After the ETH/USD pair had made a new swing high at the level of $673.52, the bulls experienced slight problems with momentum. The market has made a Pin Bar candle at the top of the rally at the H4 time frame chart, so now the local pull-back is in progress. The bearish have managed to push the price to the level of $620.52 before the bounce. The momentum has declined, but is still strong and positive, so the bulls might attack the level of $700 again soon. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $673.52 and the technical support is located at $635.46 and $620.52.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $777.02
    WR2 - $722.62
    WR1 - $678.76
    Weekly Pivot - $626.41
    WS1 - $580.02
    WS2 - $527.98
    WS3 - $482.35

    Trading Recommendations:
    The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $700, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Nevertheless, the momentum has decreased recently on the lower time frames and volatility is not that great either. The bulls has hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $587.87 on the weekly time frame chart, but the current up trend is still active. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $360 is broken.

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  5. #1365
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 22, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro fell by 126 points on Monday and by the end of the day it practically won back the entire fall. The fall was bought out in large volumes by the largest players in order to avoid an uncontrolled collapse. All this happened on the news about the readiness of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to back down in the fishing dispute with the EU, setting the quota at 66% of the current volume.

    The daily chart shows that the reversal divergence of the price and the oscillator remains. Marlin continued to move down, trying to get out of the growth zone. The downside target at 1.2040 that was formed by the price channel line is still present. However, there is a possibility of forming a double divergence. At the same time, the price will try to rush to the target level of 1.2330 and only then will it reverse into a medium-term decline.

    The four-hour chart shows that the price fell below the MACD line, then went back above it, and is currently preparing to move below it. Also, the Marlin oscillator, after the signal line went into the negative area, returned to the growth area and intends to fall again. The condition for accomplishing this move is for the price to fall below the MACD line, under 1.2205. If this condition is not met, then the double divergence option is implemented.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2020

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the single European currency fell by 80 pips. Trading volumes were above average, which can already indicate direct sales of the euro. The option with double divergence, which we allowed yesterday, is canceled, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already come close to the border with a negative trend and the transition beyond it will give a new impetus to the decline. The target of the decline is determined by the range 1.1985-1.2040, it is determined by the indicator line of the MACD and the embedded line of the price channel of the weekly timeframe. Breaking the range opens the target of 1.1885 (October 21 high).

    On the four-hour scale, the price is fixed under the lines of the balance indicator (red) and MACD (blue) indicator, the Marlin oscillator is declining. We are waiting for the development of a downward trend in the target area.

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  7. #1367
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    JAPAN'S HOUSING STARTS FALL AT SLOWER PACE

    Japan's housing starts continued to decline in November albeit at a slower pace, data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism showed on Friday.

    Housing starts were down 3.7 percent on year, following October's 8.3 percent decline. This was also better than the expected decrease of 4.9 percent.

    Annualized housing starts rose to 820,000 in November from 802,000 in the previous month.

    Further, data showed that construction orders received by the big 50 contractors decreased 4.7 percent on a yearly basis, bigger than the 0.1 percent fall posted in October.

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  8. #1368
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 25, 2020

    USD/JPY
    USD/JPY gained 13 points within the trading range of the last three days. Today the Japanese trading floors are open, at the moment the pair is quoted at 103.54, that is, it is already 14 points lower than yesterday's close. Japanese investors seem to be preparing for a negative turn of events from the opening of the new week. We keep our previous forecast that the price will move under the 103.18 level and its successive decline to 102.35.

    The four-hour chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already reached the top of its own wedge. Exit from the wedge, respectively, we wait downward, the oscillator will soon leave the negative zone and accelerate the fall.

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  9. #1369
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 28, 2020

    EUR/USD
    No significant changes in the market over the past four holidays. The market is thin, and after tense expectations about Brexit, investors want to be compensated for their efforts. Therefore, the price breakdown, which we expected earlier, is possible. If there is no breakout, then we are waiting for calmer movement to the first target of 1.1995 - this is the support of the MACD line on the daily chart. For a more stable decline in price, the transition of the Marlin oscillator to the zone of negative values is not enough. This may happen after the quotes drop below 1.2150.



    The four-hour chart shows that the euro's general sentiment is for it to fall, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is bent up suspiciously strongly, indicating an intention to enter the positive zone. If this happens, then the price will also surpass the MACD indicator line to the upside, which will entail some more growth in the free roaming area, because the market remains thin. Until it ceases to freely roam around (which will not be long), we are waiting for the downward trend to resume for all indicators.



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  10. #1370
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 29, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro gained 32 points on Monday, staying in the range of December 22nd. There are fewer signs of a downside breakout. Perhaps there won't be one, the price will spend the final days of 2020 in the range of 18-21. The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator is still present, the first significant target is determined by the MACD line at 1.1990.

    The four-hour chart shows that the price winds up on the MACD line, which is also a sign that the price is in the range. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is similarly curved around the zero neutral line. If the price moves below 1.2180, it will be a sign of the first attempt to break through.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 30, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar added 30 points yesterday as the US dollar slightly weakened. Visually, the price shows an intention to reach the target range of 0.7660/75, but the Marlin oscillator is below the lower boundary of its own channel and this factor warns of a high degree of change with this unattainable target.



    The four-hour chart shows that there is an increase above the MACD indicator line, which speaks in favor of growth, but the Marlin oscillator has practically fallen into a horizontal trend, which indicates the weakness of the trend, thereby confirming the technical uncertainty of the daily timeframe.



    In this situation, it is advisable to wait for clear signs of a trend reversal. Or, to settle above the 0.7675 level when the alternative scenario has been implemented.

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  12. #1372
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 31, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro decided to leave the final days of the outgoing year more beautifully than expected. It continues to grow throughout the week, very little is left to the target level of 1.2330, afterwards a double divergence will be formed on the daily chart and the euro will go into the unknown in 2021.



    The first task in the new year is to reach the consolidation range of August-November at 1.1750-1.1885. The first target in order to fall to 1.2035 is the MACD line.



    Growth continues on the four-hour chart. There is a possibility of forming a divergence, due to which the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has clearly slowed down its growth and lies a little in the horizon.

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  13. #1373
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 4, 2021

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The EUR/USD pair has made new swing high at the level of 1.2309, but the Monday open was below the level of 1.2250 and the price pulled-back towards the trend line support. The Broadening Wedge price pattern is still in progress, so please notice that this particular pattern is a trend reversal pattern, which indicates a possible major correction on the EUR/USD soon. For now, the zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177 remains the key demand zone for bulls. The positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook as long as the demand zone is not clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2555, but this might be the last push up for EUR/USD before the correction. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 invalidates this scenario.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2419
    WR2 - 1.2360
    WR1 - 1.2290
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2236
    WS1 - 1.2163
    WS2 - 1.2103
    WS3 - 1.2035

    Trading Recommendations:
    Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market might be making the Broadening Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 5, 2021

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar lost around 40 points yesterday, stopping exactly at the December 17 high of 0.7641. We took this level in the last review as a signal to switch to a downward short-term trend with the target of 0.7465. Testing this level confirms its significance.

    The signal line of the Marlin oscillator stopped at the lower border of its own downward channel. Obviously, the market did not have enough strength to continue yesterday's trend. Buyers, albeit short-term speculators, still believe in the positive development of risky and commodity currencies, although oil fell by 1.74% (CL) yesterday . We expect the price to drop below the signal level and move towards the target of 0.7465 (December 21 low).

    The four-hour chart shows that the price slightly pierced the MACD line and rebounded off the signal level of 0.7641. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone and is staying there this morning. We are waiting for the price's second attempt to overcome support at 0.7641.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 6, 2021

    GBP/USD
    During yesterday's growth of the British Pound against the background of the general temporary weakening of the Dollar, there was an attempt to get above the target level of 1.3624. The attempt failed and there was only a minor puncture of resistance. Today, in the Asian session, the price played back half of yesterday's growth. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the line forming the divergence. The target of the Pound's decline is 1.3325 which is the Kruzenshtern line on the daily chart.

    On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. With the price fixing under the Kruzenshtern line at 1.3578, the road to the marked target of 1.3325 opens to gain more confidence with the departure under the minimum on January 4 (1.3540).

    The four-hour chart shows that the price slightly pierced the MACD line and rebounded off the signal level of 0.7641. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone and is staying there this morning. We are waiting for the price's second attempt to overcome support at 0.7641.

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  16. #1376
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 7, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro, as a risk currency, grew yesterday as a response to the information that the Democrats had won a seat in the upper house of the US Congress. At the same time, the latest macroeconomic report from ADP showed disappointing results on new jobs in the private sector - the index showed a decrease by 123,000 in December against expectations of an increase of 60,000 and an increase of 304,000 in November. Some believe that the upcoming data on unemployment will come out even worse; the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 98,000 against 344,000 in November, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from 6.7% in November.

    It is difficult to determine where the euro will go with such data, since the January-April 2018 range is very wide (1.2206-1.2555), there are potential reversal levels within it in increments of 40 points. But at the same time, rising by another 70-100 points will not break the divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart, which will preserve the euro's potential for a reversal. In this section, we will define the 1.2397-1.2414 range as the target, taken at the extremes on April 11 and 17, 2018.

    The short-term price decline was stopped by the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The price divergence with the oscillator is held. We are waiting for the euro to rise to the specified target range of 1.2397-1.2414, but we do not recommend opening longs. Getting the price to settle below the MACD line (1.2268) will signal an attack on support at 1.2215.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 8, 2021

    AUD/USD
    Against the background of yesterday's large-scale strengthening of the dollar (only oil did not follow the dollar's growth), the Australian currency lost 34 points; it returned to the target level of 0.7770, the Marlin oscillator returned to its own downward channel, leaving the exit from it on the 6th as false, which we assumed in yesterday's review. Now, we are waiting for the signal line of the oscillator to exit the channel down, go into the zone of negative values, and further advance the price to the targets of 0.7641, 0.7465.

    The price on the four-hour scale is still above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but Marlin is already in the territory of a declining trend, dragging the market sentiment to a further decline. In order to consolidate this trend, the price will need to go under the MACD line, below 0.7220. This is the main scenario.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The US employment report from last Friday had mixed results; the non-agricultural sector lost 140,000 jobs against expectations of growth by 60,000, but at the same time the November figure was revised up from 245,000 to 336,000, the share of the economically active population remained at 61.5%, while the unemployment rate was at 6.7%. But the structure of labor data acquired a qualitative positive shift: the broad unemployment index fell from 12.0% to 11.7%, while 38,000 jobs were added in the manufacturing industry against the forecast of 20,000. But even if the data was not enough, it conveniently fits into the idea of the new administration of President Biden to adopt a plan for new budget expenditures worth several trillion dollars, and he will elaborate on the topic this week. In anticipation of this news, as well as at the beginning of the next cycle of attracting new debts by the US Treasury, the dollar was actively being purchased both yesterday and this morning. This week it is expected to raise 60 billion of net debt through government bonds.

    The daily chart shows that the euro is initially aiming for 1.2050 - the MACD indicator line. If the price moves below the line, the second target will be 1.1885. But first, the price must overcome the 1.2152/77 range that was created by the extremes on December 23 and 4. There may be a slight correction from it. The Marlin Oscillator is in the downward trend zone, where it entered very decisively.

    The four-hour chart shows that the price began to accelerate to the downside, from the area where the balance and MACD indicator lines coincide. The short-term trend is decreasing.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro fell by almost 70 points on Monday, stopping in the designated range of 1.2152/77. Consolidation is observed in the range this morning. With the exit from the consolidation to the downside, more precisely, with the price moving below yesterday's low of 1.2132, we expect the quote to fall towards the target along the MACD line at 1.2045.

    The four-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating in a narrow range of 1.2152/77, but the corrective reversal of the Marlin oscillator warns of a possible exit from this range, just slightly above it. The signal to sustain the fall will be when the price crosses the area under yesterday's low of 1.2132.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 13, 2021

    AUD/USD
    On Tuesday, the growth of the Australian dollar covered the fall on Monday. Perhaps this is the intention of the price to set a new high with the formation of another divergence with the oscillator. However, a price reversal into a new branch of decline is also possible; for this purpose, there should be a consolidation under 0.7770, which will take another day, since the current candle should close below this level. Today, the situation is not trading.

    The price on the four-hour chart is fixed above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. There are signs of continued growth, but false signals often appear on trend breaks. A more reliable signal will look like fixing the price under the MACD line (0.7735 / 40), after which the target level of 0.7641 can be expected to work out.

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