Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 16-01-24, 07:24

XAU/USD H4 | Falling to support

The XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) chart suggests a potential bearish scenario with a focus on continuing towards the support levels. Here are the key support and resistance levels:

Resistance Levels:

The 1st resistance level at 2058.27 is identified as "An Overlap resistance." This level may act as a significant barrier to further upward movement in the price of gold.

The 2nd resistance level at 2077.23 is also labeled as "An Overlap resistance." It represents another level where selling pressure could potentially emerge and limit any bullish momentum.

Support Levels:

The 1st support level at 2038.74 is marked as "Pullback support." This level could attract buying interest and serve as a potential area of price reversal or consolidation.

The 2nd support level at 2016.85 is identified as "An Overlap support." It represents another important support zone where traders might consider entering long positions.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 17-01-24, 04:06

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 17, 2024

AUD/USD
The pair lost 75 pips yesterday and broke the support levels of the target level of 0.6612 and the MACD line. The next target will be 0.6547. However, risk appetite may surge after the release of inflation data from the eurozone, and retail sales and industrial production reports from the US.

The dip below the supports may turn out to be false, and growth may continue above 0.6693. If upcoming data also turns out weaker than expected, AUD/USD will head towards 0.6514/47.

On the four-hour chart, no clear signs could be seen of either a continuation of the decline or a reversal. Usually, the pair would continue to fall, but market sentiment appears to be changing. Commodities and stock indices may also grow.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 18-01-24, 05:37

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 18, 2024

USD/JPY
The pair demonstrated strong growth in the past three days and even reached the target level of 148.35 yesterday. At this point, the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart indicated a reversal.

It remains uncertain whether the pair will fall into a correction or a medium-term decline. Nevertheless, growth will halt at 149.30 (price channel line on the weekly chart) and 149.72 (target level determined by the peaks of November 22-24). In the case of a correction, the pair will find support at the MACD line and the level of 146.24. Consolidation below this level will lead to a decline towards the target levels indicated on the chart.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows the beginning of a reversal, while the MACD line, which the price must overcome to confirm its intention, remains downward. The decline of the pair will not be rapid (in the form of a triangle), and this will allow the MACD line to approach the price.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-01-24, 06:51

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 19, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, on the daily chart, the British pound opened and closed the day above the balance indicator line (red). This indicates that the balance of power has shifted towards buying, and the price has settled above this line.

The Marlin oscillator is still in the downtrend territory, but it is getting weaker, and the price still needs to overcome the resistance level at 1.2745 to decisively defeat the bears. It is likely that a break above 1.2745 and the oscillator transitioning into the positive territory will occur simultaneously. Exchange Rates 19.01.2024 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Marlin has already entered the growth territory. It is important for the price to break above the resistance of the MACD line (1.2715), which is currently being held back by the balance line. Considering these factors, the price may be able to overcome visible obstacles and continue to rise. The target is 1.2826, which is the high from December 28th.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-01-24, 06:01

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 22, 2024

EUR/USD
The markets reaffirmed their commitment to risk-taking on Friday, with the S&P 500 setting a new all-time high, a level not seen since January 2022. The US dollar index fell by 0.24%, while the euro gained a modest 22 pips. However, we do not expect risk appetite to persist, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Taiwan. A market downturn could occur suddenly and significantly at that.

At the moment, the euro is trying to break through the resistance at 1.0905 and along with it the balance indicator line, which would open the way for the price to reach the target levels of 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the high from April 14, 2023). The Marlin oscillator has gained strength on the daily timeframe, moving towards the border of the uptrend territory.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the bullish territory. The only thing left to do is for the price to settle above 1.0905, which would also be a move above the MACD indicator line, and then the price could continue to rise.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 23-01-24, 06:02

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 23, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the main event was that traders saw a higher probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rate at the March meeting to 58.4%. The speeches of FOMC representatives finally had an effect. As a result, the dollar index increased by 0.08%, and the euro fell by 15 points.

The price rebound occurred at the intersection point of the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe with the target level of 1.0905. The local decline is supported by the MACD line around the level of 1.0853 on the daily timeframe. A consolidation below this level will allow the price to move towards 1.0825 and even 1.0730, which is the embedded price channel line and the target level.

A consolidation above 1.0905 will open the way towards the target of 1.1033. This is the main scenario. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in a sideways neutral movement. Tomorrow, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8 compared to December's 44.4. The US Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise, reaching 48.0 compared to 47.9 in December. This likely indicates a recovery in risk appetite.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 30-01-24, 05:30

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 30, 2024

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair once again tested the resistance level at 148.35 and forcefully moved downwards toward the support level at 146.24, just below which lies the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is decreasing. If the price consolidates below 146.24, it will signal the start of a medium-term decline in the pair, possibly below 140.27.

US government bond yields turned lower on Monday.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance indicator line, and the MACD line is turning downwards.

We are seeing signs of a new downward trend being formed. The Marlin oscillator made a false breakout into the positive territory (marked by a rectangle), afterwards it returned to the downtrend territory. We are awaiting the price at the first target level of 146.24.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 05-02-24, 04:57

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 5, 2024

EUR/USD
Last Friday, the US employment data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the currency market. US nonfarm payroll employment far exceeded expectations of 157,000, with an increase of 353,000 in January. Not only that, but December's figures were revised upward by 117,000. According to federal funds rates, the market probability of maintaining the current Federal Reserve rate at 5.50% in the March meeting has increased from 62% to 80%, and the likelihood of a rate cut in May rose from 58% to 60%. The yield on 5-year US government bonds rose from 3.82% to 3.98%. The S&P 500 stock index jumped by 1.07%, but the euro lacked the decisiveness to follow suit, dropping by 85 pips. Oil and gold also fell.

The euro still has a chance to turn higher, but it needs to rebound from the support level. The nearest support is the price channel line on the daily chart at 1.0748. Just below it is the level of 1.0730. If the price does not turn from there, the price could aim for 1.0632. There is also support at the lower boundary of the wedge, which has already been tested this morning but appears weak.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Probably a short-term continuation of the downward movement.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 06-02-24, 07:43

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2024

EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro fell by 44 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0730 with the lower shadow of the daily candle. The price surpassed the lower border of the green price channel, and the channel is no longer relevant.

Now, after overcoming the level of 1.0730, which the price has reached, the euro may continue to fall to the next target at 1.0632. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly bent upwards, which may indicate a minor correction from the support it reached before it falls further.

On the 4-hour chart, the price consolidates above the support level. Marlin is discharging before a possible new wave of decline. We are waiting for the price to consolidate below 1.0730 and move towards the designated level of 1.0632 – the low of September 14, 2023, and the low of May 31.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 07-02-24, 06:14

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2024

EUR/USD
The market started a corrective move on Tuesday. Even the S&P 500, which lost 0.32% on Monday, rebounded by 0.23% yesterday. We do not expect a strong correction since this week's economic calendar does not include any significant economic data. The euro's correction will look like a consolidation above the level of 1.0730, approaching the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel on the daily timeframe. If the price settles below 1.0730, it will open the target at 1.0632.

The price needs to do a lot to reverse the entire movement, including breaking above the MACD line, i.e., approaching 1.0905. Therefore, in the current situation, we are simply waiting for the sideways movement to end. The price could rise above 1.0905 if the stock market continues to set new historical records. However, this will eventually stop.

On the 4-hour chart, a small convergence has formed. The bullish target is the MACD line around the 1.0790 mark. Staying above the line will make it possible for the price to rise to 1.0825.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-02-24, 10:51

USD/CHF H4 | Bearish Drop

For USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc), there's a potential bearish reversal scenario indicated by the following key levels:

Resistance Levels:

The 1st resistance level at 0.87435 is identified as "An Overlap resistance," suggesting a significant barrier where selling pressure could intensify, potentially leading to a reversal in the price trend.

The 2nd resistance level at 0.88069 is described as "Multi-swing high resistance," indicating another level where sellers might be active, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Support Levels:

The 1st support level at 0.86865 is recognized as "An Overlap support," implying a level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing a floor for the price decline.

The 2nd support level at 0.86399 is noted as "Pullback support," suggesting another area where buyers could enter the market, potentially limiting further downward movement.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 09-02-24, 07:20

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 9, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro attempted a bearish breakthrough but quickly returned to the initial positions, ending the day with a 5-point gain. We're waiting for progress, probably until the 13th, which is when the US inflation data for January will be released.

Technically, the waiting mode is working in a downward vector, as it brings it closer to the upper boundary of the descending price channel. With the Marlin oscillator in negative territory, there is a higher chance that the price could fall from this level. Overcoming the support at 1.0724 will be a crucial condition for such a decline. The nearest target is 1.0632.

On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's downturn occurred from the MACD line. This line stopped the price from returning. Marlin is currently in the positive territory, but this may not last long. For a bullish breakthrough, the price must consolidate with yesterday's high at 1.0789, which is also slightly above the MACD line. The bulls are aiming for 1.0825.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 12-02-24, 05:19

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 12, 2024

EUR/USD
After a reversal from the support at 1.0724, the euro continues to rise for the 5th day towards the target level of 1.0825, which is near the upper band of the local descending channel on the daily scale.

The bodies of the observed white candles are small, indicating an apparent corrective nature of this growth. If the price manages to consolidate above the MACD line (1.0876), the bulls will have a basis to support a stronger rise, for instance, into the range of 1.0966-1.1001. The Marlin oscillator is still developing in negative territory, although its rise is fast.

We are also keeping an eye on the S&P 500 stock index, which reached the target level of 5028 on Friday, and there is a risk of a reversal from this level. If it continues to rise, the next target will be the upper boundary of the global hyperchannel in the target range of 5101.50-5120.00, where the risk of a reversal will increase significantly.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 13-02-24, 07:36

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 13, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro did not reach its target of 1.0825, hindered by investors' flight from risk in the broader market; the S&P 500 lost 0.09% (although overall, stock markets closed mixed), and the yield on US government bonds edged down slightly.

Perhaps the single currency will not rise further, say, to 1.10. Currently, the euro is falling within a medium-term descending channel, staying below the balance and MACD indicator lines with a declining Marlin oscillator. If the price hits the nearest target of 1.0724, consolidates below it, then the euro will continue to fall to the second target of 1.0632 – to the low of September 14, 2023. We expect the pair to continue its downward movement.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD line but currently feels uncertain there, as the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the growth territory. Perhaps it will do so when the price surpasses yesterday's low of 1.0757.

Today, the US will release figures for its February's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the main agenda of the day, as this may influence the Federal Reserve's attitude toward monetary policy.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-02-24, 06:20

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2024

EUR/USD
The euro continues to closely follow the movements of the stock market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index corrected from Tuesday's decline, showing a 0.96% increase. We outlined our main points in yesterday's review, so today, we are taking a wait-and-see position.

On the daily chart, the euro has shown moderate growth in the upper half of the descending price channel both yesterday and this morning. A small convergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator. Apparently, traders are not in a hurry to anticipate events, so the convergence will guide the euro into sideways movement, slightly above the support at 1.0724, where the price may gather strength to show a firm downward movement.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has already managed to consolidate above the level of 1.0724, but it is noticeably below the MACD indicator line (1.0768). Overcoming this line will allow the price to test the upper boundary of the daily price channel (1.0790). Only a break above the channel will postpone the euro's decline for an indefinite period.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 16-02-24, 06:51

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 16, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, under the influence of the stock market (S&P 500 0.58%) and its own convergence, the euro rose by 44 pips. The upper boundary of the descending price channel at 1.0790 is nearby. A break above the channel will open the nearest target level at 1.0825. Then, assuming that the stock market will continue to rise, the euro may attempt to reach the MACD indicator line at 1.0868 on the daily chart.

The stock market needs to rise by 0.39% to reach its record high set on February 12. If it manages to do so, it may rise by another 1.04% to reach the upper boundary of the global growing price channel since 2009. But we wouldn't count on the euro's growth until the S&P sets a new record high. If the euro breaks the support at 1.0724, the bears may try to bring the quote to the target level of 1.0632. We are waiting for progress.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has risen above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has settled on its rising half. However, the main obstacle is the upper boundary of the price channel (1.0790), and it is quite difficult to overcome this while we're facing a downward trend. Perhaps the main events will unfold next week. And if you look at such a tool as cyclic lines on the daily chart, you can see a reversal moment on Monday.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-02-24, 06:23

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 19, 2024

EUR/USD
Last Friday, due to the decline in the stock market, the euro failed to develop a full-fledged upward movement, closing the day up by 5 pips. This morning, the euro is trying to rise without external influence, but technically, the price has reached the intersection point of the upper boundary of the descending price channel and the cyclical line, from which a bearish trend reversal is expected. Also, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the border of the uptrend territory, and a reversal may occur from this line.

Thus, the main scenario is the euro will fall through the nearest support at 1.0724 to the target level of 1.0632. Possibly even lower, to the lower boundary of the price channel, around the target level of 1.0440 (the 2023 low). If the price breaks above the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.0793, the channel will be invalidated, and the price will continue to rise to the nearest target level of 1.0825 with the goal of attacking the MACD line around the 1.0870 mark.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and Marlin is growing in the positive territory after bouncing off the zero line. The growth seems deceptive, especially since the stock market has not yet come into play. If the price returns below the MACD line (1.0763), this may bring back the bearish scenario. Today, the US and Canadian markets are closed for a holiday.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 20-02-24, 06:50

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 20, 2024

EUR/USD
The euro is starting to form a bearish reversal exactly along the cyclical line with a period of 9 daily bars. The upper line of the descending price channel is still undeveloped, but this option is also acceptable during reversals.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is also turning down without reaching the zero line, but at the same time it is sensitive to the upper resistance line. The final confirmation that the euro will fall is when the price breaches the support at 1.0724. After that, the target will be 1.0632.

On the 4-hour chart, the first signal for a downward movement is when the price falls below the MACD line (1.0763). It is very likely that at this moment, the Marlin oscillator will enter the downtrend territory. This will be a good pattern for creating the momentum to reach the support at 1.0724.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 21-02-24, 06:11

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 21, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the price surpassed the resistance of the target level at 1.2610, as well as both indicator lines. Afterward, it retreated, and the pound closed the day with a 29-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator entered the growth territory.

However, as long as the price doesn't settle above the MACD line (1.2640), there is a high probability of a reversal from the resistance levels it reached. Marlin can also turn down from the zero line. If the price consolidates below 1.2610, the target will be 1.2524. Consolidating above 1.2640 will allow the price to rise to the level of 1.2745 – the peak of August 30, 2023.

The price has covered a distance of 50 pips from yesterday's high to its current quote, approaching the support at 1.2610. A break below will make it possible to attack the MACD line in the 4-hour chart (1.2590). Consolidating below it opens the target level at 1.2524.

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- - - Updated - - -

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 21, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the price surpassed the resistance of the target level at 1.2610, as well as both indicator lines. Afterward, it retreated, and the pound closed the day with a 29-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator entered the growth territory.

However, as long as the price doesn't settle above the MACD line (1.2640), there is a high probability of a reversal from the resistance levels it reached. Marlin can also turn down from the zero line. If the price consolidates below 1.2610, the target will be 1.2524. Consolidating above 1.2640 will allow the price to rise to the level of 1.2745 – the peak of August 30, 2023.

The price has covered a distance of 50 pips from yesterday's high to its current quote, approaching the support at 1.2610. A break below will make it possible to attack the MACD line in the 4-hour chart (1.2590). Consolidating below it opens the target level at 1.2524.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-02-24, 06:50

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound only rose by 15 pips, but it accomplished an important task for the bulls - it consolidated above the level of 1.2610. So now it is much easier to overcome the MACD line. It will succeed once the price overcomes the February 20th peak (1.2667). After that, the next target will be 1.2745.

The Marlin oscillator is stable in the uptrend territory and it continues to rise further. A reversal below 1.2610 will be a sign of the bulls' weakness, despite all the positive signs that it received.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see a consolidation above 1.2610 while the price is struggling with the MACD line on the daily timeframe. The Marlin oscillator moved up in the bullish territory. But once the price overcomes the support of the MACD line (1.2592), this will confirm a bearish breakthrough and it will mark the bears' victory in the current situation.

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