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  1. #1621
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 10, 2022

    Last Friday, after optimistic data on employment in the US, the euro grew by 64 points by the end of the day, on volumes smaller than on Tuesday-Thursday. The euro's growth occurred against the backdrop of rising yields on government bonds and a fall in the stock market. In general, a picture is being created of the withdrawal of capital from US assets, it is likely that there is a reduction in carry-trade operations, and if this is the case, then the euro's growth will be short-term.

    Today's opening of the market with a falling gap shows investors' uncertainty about further purchases of the European currency. The euro bulls have two technical levels: 1.1383 - the upper limit of the free-roaming range, 1.1415 - the high of June 2019 and June 2020. We can only consider a medium-term growth of the EUR/USD pair to the target level of 1.1570 after the price breaks above 1.1415. But now we can speak of a decline only after the price returns under the MACD indicator line on the daily scale, below 1.1312.

    On the H4 chart, the price is in a growing position - it is above both indicator lines. Growth is supported by the Marlin Oscillator, which is in the positive area. There are no noticeable barriers to the price on the way to 1.1383 (1.1415), especially if today's data on employment in the euro area meet expectations (the forecast for unemployment for November 7.2% versus 7.3% in October), but the price may also return to its original positions Friday on new data on the epidemic, if they show deterioration. We are waiting for the development of events.

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  2. #1622
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2022

    Data on unemployment in the euro area for November was published on Monday, they were in line with the forecast - 7.2% against 7.3% in October. But during the day, stock indices fell across the eurozone and the US, and only recovered slightly closer to the close. The euro followed these trends and eventually closed the day with a black candle, but above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, which it had already overcome.

    In general, the technical situation does not change; the price is between the support at 1.1310 (MACD line) and the resistances at 1.1383 and slightly above 1.1415. The 1.1383 level is the upper border of the one and a half month sideways trend, the 1.1415 level is a signal for further price growth to 1.1570. Consolidating below 1.1310 will give it the opportunity to first work out the lower border of the range (1.1222), and then attack the support at 1.1170.

    On the four-hour scale, at first glance, the situation seems to be ascending - the price is above both indicator lines and the Marlin Oscillator is in the growing trend zone, but this situation has been changing regularly for a month and a half. We are waiting for the price to settle above 1.1383, or below 1.1310 on a daily scale.

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  3. #1623
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2022

    On Tuesday, the following happened: from the opening of the day, the euro's price increased by 30 points, then it fell to the MACD line of the daily scale (-40 p) and, rebounding from it, closed the day with an increase of 43 points. The rebound from the MACD line indicates the desire to reach a target level, it can be either the nearest 1.1383 or just above 1.1415. The Marlin Oscillator is close to divergence with the price, and this moment indicates a probable overcoming of the signal level of 1.1383, and also a price reversal without reaching the target 1.1415.

    But if the price can settle above 1.1415, then the divergence with the oscillator will not take place and the euro will continue to strengthen in the medium term (target 1.1570).

    The price is rising across all indicators on the four-hour chart, but Marlin is growing at a slower pace. Probably, a technical basis is being prepared for a downward price reversal. This is the main scenario.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 13, 2022

    Yesterday the euro crossed the area above the nearest bullish target level of 1.1415, showing a total rise of 75 points. The growth, however, did not occur at very high volumes, although at above average. This suggests that the withdrawal of bears' stops - short positions, gained during the period of consolidation since December last year, has not yet happened, these stops are located higher. And if there was an attack on the nearest orders, it will most likely continue. In this case, the euro's target is 1.1570 - the peak of January 2019.

    On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the target level of 1.1415. The Marlin Oscillator is in the overbought zone, showing an intention to exit it. The price is likely to sag a little before further growth, it will be supported by the level 1.1415, while Marlin will get a release and later continue to move upward.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  5. #1625
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2022

    On Thursday, the euro rose a little more after a strong impulse on Wednesday. The price has settled above the target level of 1.1415, now it becomes a support for the bulls, pushing the price to the target level of 1.1570 – the high of January 2019. Successfully breaking this level opens a higher target - the 1.1700/22 range. The Marlin Oscillator is slightly tilting down, perhaps the further upward movement will not be so fast.

    Investors have not been paying attention to macroeconomic statistics in recent days, but today there may be a divergence of data in favor of the euro: in the UK, industrial production in October may show an increase of 0.2%, France's CPI in November may show an increase of 0.2%, CPI Spain +1.3% m/m, the euro area trade balance for November is expected to increase to 7.6 billion euros from 3.6 billion in October, and in the US retail sales for December are forecast to decline by 0.1%. Industrial production in the US for December may show an increase of 0.3%, but for the big picture this is not very convincing.

    On the four-hour chart, Marlin has discharged from the overbought zone, and now it is ready to resume growth.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  6. #1626
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 17, 2022

    The corrective consolidation is now complete and the underlying impulsive rally higher to our first target level of 160.54 is taking place. If bulls assert strength, GBP/JPY may go higher to our second target level of 163.39.

    Keep the focus on the upside and a break above minor resistance at 157.69 for a continuation towards 160.54 and maybe even higher.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  7. #1627
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 18, 2022

    Yesterday, the quote of the European currency did not break down from the target level of 1.1415 (the June 2019 high), lingered on it, and this morning it shows the intention to rise with the Marlin Oscillator turning up on the daily scale chart. The main scenario - growth to the target level of 1.1570 (the January 2019 high) has been preserved.

    The price was supported by the balance indicator line (red) on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways. It can enter the positive area with the price crossing yesterday's high (1.1434). Thus, the level of 1.1434 becomes a confirming level of further growth. Consolidating below the MACD line, below 1.1386, may push the price to the daily MACD line to the area of 1.1310.

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  8. #1628
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 19, 2022

    The euro fell by 85 points on Tuesday and came close to the support of the MACD indicator line on the daily chart (1.1305). Crossing this support will mean opening the way to the target of 1.1170 and below (1.1050). The Marlin Oscillator has reached the zero line - the border with the territory of the downward trend, which, along with the proximity of the price to the MACD line, indicates a high probability of an upward reversal - to overcome the target level of 1.1415 and further advance to 1.1570. Moreover, today the price may not choose a further direction, since after yesterday's strong fall, there is a high probability of consolidation. The 1.1305 level is near the August 2018 low, that is, it is quite strong.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is below both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator shows a weak desire to reverse. We are waiting for the formation of consolidation before the support of 1.1305 and the subsequent choice by the European currency of the further medium-term direction.

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  9. #1629
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 20, 2022

    Yesterday, the euro did not reach the support of the MACD daily indicator line (1.1300). The upward movement from yesterday and this morning looks more like a reversal to the upside than a consolidation before support. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned up from its own zero line, from the border with the downward trend. All these signs suggest that the euro intends to overcome the target level of 1.1415 and continue to grow towards 1.1570.

    The departure of the price under the MACD line, under the mark of 1.1300 will naturally open the door to a further decrease to the level of 1.1170.

    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is in a hurry to leave the negative territory, the price is approaching the MACD indicator line at 1.1387, the transition above which visually coincides with Marlin's transition to the positive area. Such a synchronous signal will increase the growth potential.

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  10. #1630
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 21, 2022

    Yesterday, the euro was hit by a sell-off as investors withdrew from risky assets. The US stock index S&P 500 fell by 1.10%. The price has reached the support of the MACD indicator line on the daily scale chart. The oscillator is in the downward trend zone. But, despite the increased pressure on the quotes of the single currency, the question of an upward reversal looks sharper than yesterday, since touching the MACD line from above looks like testing it before medium-term growth. The first growth target is 1.1415, then 1.1570. Consolidating below the MACD line will open a bearish target of 1.1170.

    The price converges with the Marlin Oscillator on the four-hour chart. Actually, this circumstance is the main sign of a price reversal to the upside. But the euro remains under pressure, you need to wait at least two more white candles for the divergence to take place, so that there is a visual price reversal. In the meantime, we are waiting for the development of the situation.

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  11. #1631
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 24, 2022

    Last Friday, the euro bounced up from MACD's indicator line, blocking Thursday's decline. The probability of the price rising to the nearest target level 1.1415 (June 2019 high) has slightly increased.

    The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator went sideways along the neutral zero line. Consolidation is not long, so there may well be a reversal to the upside. Long-term horizontal movements of the oscillator after the signal line exits the overbought zone mainly precede the subsequent decline.

    Consolidating below 1.1300 opens the way for the price to 1.1170 (June 2020 support).

    The price converged with the Marlin Oscillator on the four-hour chart. The exit above Friday's high (1.1360) will be a signal to attack the price of the MACD line (1.1385). After the price crosses the indicated level, it is likely that the price will consolidate to break through 1.1415. By this time, the Federal Reserve will have announced its decision on monetary policy.

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  12. #1632
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis. EUR/USD daily review on January 25, 2022

    Trend analysis (Fig. 1) EUR/USD is likely to decline on Tuesday, from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1299, which is the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). After that it will return to the 14.6% retracement level at 1.1327 (yellow dotted line), then go further upwards.

    Fig. 1 (daily chart)
    Comprehensive analysis:
    Indicator analysis - downtrend
    Fibonacci levels - downtrend
    Volumes - downtrend
    Candlestick analysis - downtrend
    Trend analysis - uptrend
    Bollinger bands - downtrend
    Weekly chart - uptrend

    Conclusion: EUR/USD will dip from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1299 (red dotted line), then go to 1.1327, which is the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). It may go further up after reaching that level.

    Alternatively, the pair could move from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the lower fractal at 1.1290 (daily candle from 01/24/2022), then climb further to 1.1327, which is the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line).

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  13. #1633
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Gold for January 26, 2022

    Gold is testing the symmetrical triangle resistance-line and a break above here and more importantly a break above 1,877 will confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 towards 2,700 is in motion. As long as the triangle resistance-line is able to cap the upside we could see gold move a little lower to 1,812, but the downside should be limited and it should just be a matter of time before resistance at 1,877 is conquered and the rally towards 2,700 is in motion.

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  14. #1634
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 27, 2022

    So, at yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve made it clear that the conditions for a rate hike are ripe, that rates can rise without a negative impact on the labor market, and the first increase will be in March. As a result of the day, the dollar index strengthened by 0.51%, the euro lost 60 points. The yield on 5-year US government bonds increased from 1.564% to 1.678%.

    On the whole, the Fed's decision, like any thesis of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, was expected. But the fall of the euro shows that the markets have not yet taken into account the beginning of the US rate hike cycle, as is sometimes expressed in the media. And, perhaps, this is the main idea that has matured as a result of yesterday.

    The price settled under both indicator lines on the daily chart – under the balance line and the MACD line. The price is approaching the first bearish target (1.1170) as planned. Consolidation below the level will open the second target (1.1050).

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 28, 2022

    In line with the general weakening of regional currencies (the US dollar index rose 0.77% yesterday), the Australian dollar fell 81 points yesterday, overcame the first target level of 0.7065 and paused before the target level of 0.7007 this morning. The price drop below this level opens the next target at 0.6950.

    On the four-hour chart, by this morning, a weak price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator has formed. The aussie will probably rest a bit under the level of 0.7065 before it declines further.

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  16. #1636
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2022

    Last Friday, the euro consolidated under the target resistance level of 1.1170. We expected that this consolidation would precede a further decline towards 1.1050. And in order for the emerging price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator not to take place, otherwise there will be a price reversal upwards, a decrease, at least a small one, already by today.

    On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator rose high enough to reverse again. This signal line may still enter the consolidation range, marked with a gray area, but we expect a quick downward reversal from it.

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  17. #1637
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 3, 2022

    The euro ended Wednesday with a growth of 30 points, and the price even settled above the MACD indicator line of the daily scale. Price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is developing. Of course, at first glance, a reversal situation has been created and the target level of 1.1450 is open, but there are several factors hindering growth. The strongest of them is an emerging reversal in adjacent markets - technical signs of a fall have developed in oil and stock indices. A weak factor, but developing in the future, is the reversal of the Marlin Oscillator before the border with the growth territory, which, together with the presence of the balance indicator line (red) above the price, indicates that the euro has grown over the past four days as a correction.

    Thus, there is a possibility of the price returning under the MACD line and its subsequent fall to the target level of 1.1060. To confirm the growth, one more day must pass above the MACD line so that Marlin can move into the positive area and confirm this growth.

    On the H4 chart, the price is above both indicator lines, Marlin is in growth territory, but is turning down from the overbought zone. The departure of the price under the MACD line, below 1.1250, will confirm the corrective nature of the growth of the euro over the past four days.

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  18. #1638
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2022

    Last Friday, despite strong data on employment in the US, the euro was traded at the target level of 1.1450, having reached the high of the day, the peak on January 14th. Consolidating below this level will be the first sign of a price reversal into a deep correction, back to the MACD line, to the level of 1.1300. Along with a consolidation below 1.1450, a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator may be completed. Let's also assume a growth to 1.1496, which looks stronger than 1.1450 as it is the top of stronger reversals in March 2020 and October 2015. The divergence in this case will become more significant. Consolidating above 1.1496 will become a condition for growth to the target range of 1.1700/22.

    The Marlin Oscillator is falling sharply on the four-hour chart. The probability of a reversal scenario is 60%. But this reversal is likely only for a correction to the 1.1300 area, from which the euro may turn upward. Consolidating under the MACD line of the daily scale (below 1.1300), further medium-term weakening of the European currency is possible.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2022

    As of this morning, the growth situation looks unambiguous for the Australian dollar. The price turned up from the target level of 0.7065 supported by a strong price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale chart. The first growth target is 0.7190, the second target is 0.7227, the third target is 0.7291 – the low of July 2021. A price delay is likely in the 0.7190-0.7227 range, since the MACD line is located in it.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is above both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the upward trend zone. It is interesting to note here that the targets at 0.7190 and 0.7291 coincide with the 110.0% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels. The 0.7291 target will probably be fulfilled. It is likely to be corrected.

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  20. #1640
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 9, 2022

    The Australian dollar's growth by 20 points from yesterday confirmed its main scenario of moving into the range of 0.7190-0.7227. The MACD indicator line is located in this range, and here the main question will be decided - whether the price will settle above it and continue its medium-term growth, or turn into a medium-term fall, possibly with the formation of a double convergence.

    Growth continues without a hitch on the four-hour scale. The price is growing above the balance and MACD lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. We are waiting for the price to enter the specified range of 0.7190-0.7227 and follow its further behavior.

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