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  1. #1941
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    Forecast for GBP/USD on June 5, 2023

    GBP/USD: On Friday, the pound fell by 75 pips amid mixed but not exactly weak US employment data. This morning, upon the news of President Biden signing a bill to lift the debt ceiling on Saturday, the pound lost another 20 pips, entering the range of the May 31 candle.

    The nearest target at 1.2403, the MACD daily line, is now open. Breaking below this line opens up the target of 1.2273, which is both the April 3 low and the February 14 high. The Marlin oscillator is moving deeper into the downtrend area, and it may reach the oversold zone when the price approaches the target range of 1.2125/53.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is moving between two target levels while the Marlin oscillator remains negative. It is likely that the price will attempt to break 1.2403. If successful, the pound will aim for the MACD line on the four-hour chart around 1.2370. Breaking below this support, the British pound will be aiming for 1.2273.

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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 6, 2023

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair had reversed sharply lower after the technical resistance level seen at 1.2550 was too strong to be broken. The bears moved below all of the MA levels, but eventually the market bounced from the short-term trend line support seen at the level of 1.2367. The momentum reversed sharply from the extremely overbought conditions on the H4 time frame as well and is currently moving testing the level of fifty. There is still a room for a momentum and price to move lower, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.25080
    WR2 - 1.24565
    WR1 - 1.24223
    Weekly Pivot - 1.24050
    WS1 - 1.23708
    WS2 - 1.23535
    WS3 - 1.23020

    Trading Outlook:
    A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.

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    Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Asset, Wednesday, June 07 2023



    With the appearance of Deviation between price movement of Silver commodity asset with osMA indicator on its 4 hour chart, then it can be confirmed that if in the neareast future Silver will go down up to the level 23,204, and if this level successfully broken below, then Silver has the opportunity to continue its downside up to the level 22,875. But, if there is a quite significant upward correction, especially if it go up to the level 23,920, then the downward scenario which has been described below will become invalid and will cancel itself.

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  4. #1944
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    USDCHF, H4 | Break above the resistance?

    The USD/CHF chart exhibits bullish momentum as the price remains above a significant ascending trend line, suggesting further potential for upward movement.

    There is a possibility of continued bullishness towards the first resistance level at 0.9117, identified as an overlap resistance.

    Support levels at 0.9023 and 0.8954, the latter coinciding with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, serve as significant levels of potential support.

    An intermediate resistance level at 0.9091 is recognized as a multi-swing high resistance, highlighting its importance.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 12, 2023

    EUR/USD
    The euro is approaching the support level at 1.0738. The Marlin oscillator has backed off from attacking the zero line and has turned around as it approaches it. On the euro's path towards the target at 1.0600, there are at least three strong support levels: the nearest ones are at 1.0738, 1.0716, and 1.0692. There are no major macroeconomic news today, but tomorrow's important event will be the release of the May CPI in the US, and forecasts already suggest a slowdown in inflation (4.9-5.0% YoY compared to April's 4.9% YoY, although the range of forecasts varies depending on the analytical agency and individual groups of economists).

    The yield on US government bonds is not decreasing and remains at the peaks of June 7-9, technically leaning towards growth. This sentiment is also felt in gold, which has declined in value for the second consecutive day. The market probability of a rate hike on Wednesday has slightly increased from 25.3% to 29.9%. If tomorrow's CPI data does exhibit growth, investors will significantly raise this probability, and the markets will psychologically be prepared for an actual rate hike. Today, the volatility is likely to be low, and the day's close will be slightly lower.

    On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is approaching the zero line and may meet it when the price touches 1.0738. Afterwards, we expect the price to move sideways.

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    Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Crude Oil Commodity Asset, Wednesday June 14, 2023

    With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart - Crude Oil commodity assets, in the near future #CL has the potential to appreciate corrected rally upwards to test the Bearish Orderblock level at 70.62 as the main target and if the momentum and volatility are sufficiently supportive, it is not impossible that the 200 EMA will be the next target to aim for provided that on the way to these targets it does not occur #CL returns to its initial bias again especially not to break below the 67.92 level because if this level is successfully broken then the scenario of an upward correction above that has been described will become invalid and cancel by itself.

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    Forecast for GBP/USD on June 16, 2023

    GBP/USD:
    On Thursday, the pound rose by 120 pips, reaching the target level of 1.2785. Consolidation above this level will make it possible for the pair to reach the next target at 1.2870. The subsequent targets are at 1.2980/90, and so on, every hundred pips. Yesterday, the pair surpassed the peak of May 10, which marked the highest point of growth since September 2022. As a result, the market has started a trend, and the decline observed from May 10 to May 25 was merely a correction within this annual uptrend.

    Considering the fundamental factors and the disbelief in the pound's long-term growth, the current year-long growth can be interpreted as a correction from a more significant decline between May 2021 and September 2022 (69 weeks). Currently, this is the 37th week of growth. It may continue for another three weeks and the pound can reach the level of 1.3160, the December 2021 low.

    We are extremely cautious about the prospect of such growth. Right now the Marlin oscillator is already showing signs of a reversal from the overbought territory.

    On the 4-hour chart, there are no clear reversal signals, although the oscillator is in the overbought territory. The pound has a good chance of surpassing the 1.2785 level, and it will try to reach the 1.2870 target.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2023

    EUR/USD:
    On Friday, the euro fell by 5 pips, reaching the upper shadow of the April 4th peak. This level is not very strong, but after testing the stronger target range of 1.0910/30, a reversal could occur from a weaker level. If the price surpasses Friday's high (1.0971), the price will try to test the upper limit of the price channel around 1.1013. The daily Marlin oscillator is turning downward, indicating that the euro will likely try to return below the range of 1.0910/30. Consolidation below this range would allow for a bearish push towards the lower embedded line of the price channel around 1.0840.

    On the four-hour chart, there is a price consolidation above the target range of 1.0910/30, indicating a desire for further upward movement. The Marlin oscillator will also turn upward, easing the oversold condition. However, if the euro has no intention of rising, once the price falls below the mentioned range, it will consolidate below the zero line along with the oscillator, as its decline is quite rapid. The support level at 1.0840 approximately corresponds to the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The same indicator line on the daily chart is also approaching this area.

    The support is becoming stronger, and its significance is increasing day by day. Therefore, breaking below this level would be a definitive signal for the development of medium-term downward movement (1.0580).

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  9. #1949
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 20, 2023

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro fell by 18 pips, marking the lower limit of the target range at 1.0910/30 with its lower shadow. Consolidation below the range will allow for an advance towards the lower line of the price channel around the 1.0840 mark. However, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling sluggishly, indicating that the euro still has a potential to rise. At the same time, the price is above the balance indicator line (which also halted its decline yesterday), indicating a maintained upward potential along with Marlin.

    The situation could be reversed by a strong downward movement surpassing yesterday's level. This is possible if the US construction data turns out to be good and today's speeches by James Bullard and John Williams demonstrate firmness, hinting at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's stance in his key speech in the House of Representatives tomorrow.

    On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply declines in a straight line. This often indicates a reversal of the price upwards. If the price finds the strength to break below the MACD line, the upward reversal is either postponed until the completion of a deep correction or canceled. The price is about 65 pips away from the MACD line, and an additional 15-20 pips would be needed for confirmation below it, which may prove to be an unattainable task for today. Powell's speech will take place in 9 four-hour candles (green vertical line). If the price does not deviate from its plan, it will only need to cover 50 pips since the MACD line is rising and approaching the price. The ultimate signal level is the peak on June 14 at 1.0865. The task is achievable, but the first impulse is necessary. The main plan will be canceled if the price breaks above the peak on June 16, allowing the price to continue rising towards 1.1007.

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    Forecast for USD/JPY on June 26, 2023

    USD/JPY:
    Last Friday, the Japanese yen entered the 143.20/80 range and has been consolidating within it until this morning. On the daily chart, a divergence has not yet formed between the price and the Marlin oscillator. Keeping the price within the current range increases the chances of a subsequent decline. If the dollar continues to rise, then after surpassing 143.80, the 144.73 target will just be within reach.

    Falling below 143.20 would indicate that the dollar cannot continue to rise without a corrective pause, and the 142.30 target will open up. Moreover, if the price breaches the support level, it would mean a break below the embedded line of the price channel, potentially leading to sideways movement for a few days before further upward movement.

    On the four-hour chart, the pair is accelerating its growth. The Marlin oscillator is not yet in the overbought zone, so there is a good chance for the price to reach 144.73 in the near future before the growth loses momentum. As the probability of further growth and correction is roughly equal, the key levels to watch are 143.20 and 143.80.

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  11. #1951
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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 27, 2023

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of 1.2698 and the bulls keeps trying to bounce higher to resume the up trend. The local low was made a few pips lower at 1.2684 and will act as the intraday technical support. The 50 MA will provide the dynamic resistance for bulls around the level of 1.2766 when the up trend is resumed. The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart support short-term bearish outlook for GBP, but the bulls keep trying to move up. The pull-back might evolve into a full-blown correction if the level of 1.2684 is broken.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.27656
    WR2 - 1.27471
    WR1 - 1.27367
    Weekly Pivot - 1.27286
    WS1 - 1.27182
    WS2 - 1.27101
    WS3 - 1.26916

    Trading Outlook:
    The 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 has been hit, but it does not indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout above this level and a weekly candle close above it is needed to change the long-term outlook to bullish. The key long term level of technical support is seen at 1.2444. The next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3160.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 30, 2023

    EUR/USD: Yesterday, thanks to the report on the final estimate of US GDP for the first quarter, which turned out to be better than expected, the US dollar strengthened by 0.35%. The euro lost 47 pips. On the daily chart, the price settled below the range of 1.0910/30. Now the price can reach the target range of 1.0789-1.0804.

    The MACD line is approaching this range, increasing its importance. Consolidating below this range will be a key indicator of the euro's medium-term uptrend. Around the same time, the Marlin oscillator will move into negative territory.

    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line stayed within the downtrend area yesterday. The price briefly moved above the range and the balance line. We expect further developments within the support range of 1.0789-1.0804.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on July 3, 2023

    GBP/USD
    On Friday, the GBP/USD pair rose above the target level of 1.2678. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards from the zero line. Now, if the pair closes the day above this level, it will continue to rise towards the next resistance level at 1.2785. Closing the day below 1.2678 will extend the period of uncertainty since the US will be celebrating a holiday tomorrow.

    According to the main scenario, the price is trading towards the target support level at 1.2520, where the MACD line is currently located. This would automatically lead to a break below the embedded green price channel line (1.2572), which is a sign of medium-term decline. The pair will likely go through light trading today and tomorrow, due to the US holiday, and major events will unfold on Wednesday.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is staying above 1.2678, and the first resistance it encounters is the balance indicator line. Marlin is rising in the positive territory. There is a possibility of further growth towards the MACD line (1.2760) and then 1.2785. Currently, time is working in favor of the bears. If the price fails to firmly establish above 1.2678 or reverses downwards, it may lead to a two-day period of uncertainty (range).

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on July 4, 2023

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro showed a range of 60 points, closing the day at the opening level. The upper shadow tested the 1.0930 level, and this morning the price is headed towards this mark again, not giving up hope of reaching the upper band of the green descending price channel around 1.0990. This is possible if the euro follows the stock market and employment data turn out worse than expected. For now, the price needs to consolidate above 1.0930. Surpassing yesterday's low at 1.0871 will be a signal for a decline.

    On the 4-hour chart, the price could not consolidate below the balance indicator line and returned to the 1.0910/30 range. Here, it can linger for a while and try to overcome the MACD line around 1.0952. The Marlin oscillator in the positive area is ready to join the growth at any moment.

    Given that we accept the bearish scenario for the euro as the main plan, the price may not overcome the MACD line and return below the range. Like yesterday, uncertainty persists in the short-term perspective.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2023

    EUR/USD
    The euro lost more than 30 points yesterday, finding resistance at 1.0910/30 quite strong. The Marlin oscillator is not resisting this decline, it is approaching the border of the downtrend territory. Crossing this border will accelerate the pair's decline. There are two nearby targets: the MACD line (1.0820) and the target range under it at 1.0789-1.0804.

    An alternative scenario will unfold with the price breaking above the resistance range of 1.0910/30, making the next target as 1.0984. On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is also in decline territory. We are watching the development of the current downtrend.

    Today, the eurozone services PMI for May will be published - a decline from 55.1 to 52.4 is forecasted. In the US, the volume of industrial orders for May will be released, with growth of 0.8% expected.

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    Forecast for USD/JPY on July 6, 2023

    USD/JPY
    For the sixth session, the yen has done nothing but move to the right. Such consolidation, however, increases the chances of an upward breakout, first to the target of 145.68, then to 147.40. The price's divergence with the Marlin oscillator is gradually losing strength due to inactivity.

    Now, even if the price falls to one of the support levels (143.80, 143.20), there will be a quick reversal. If the Marlin oscillator enters negative territory, which will not happen today, the price may fuel the corrective decline to the embedded line of the price channel around the 142.70 mark.

    On the four-hour chart, the price fell under the balance and MACD indicator lines during the sideways movement. The price delay under these lines increases the chances of a decline. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating below the zero line – also a sign of a possible decline in the near future. Under the influence of external circumstances, the price may consolidate above 144.73 and this would point to upward movement.

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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 11, 2023

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The EUR/USD pair has broken above the intraday technical resistance seen at the level of 1.0974 and made a new swing high at the level of 1.1023 (at the time of writing the analysis). The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0974. Please notice, the momentum has hit the extremely overbought conditions again, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. In a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0901 and 1.0876. Only a sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.09927
    WR2 - 1.09761
    WR1 - 1.09665
    Weekly Pivot - 1.09595
    WS1 - 1.09499
    WS2 - 1.09429
    WS3 - 1.09263

    Trading Outlook:
    Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2023

    EUR/USD
    The euro has reached the target resistance of 1.1028. The pair has crossed the peak of June 22, and along with it, the primary conditions for forming divergence with the Marlin oscillator have been prepared. If a divergence is formed, it will mean the end of the entire corrective growth since May 31. If the price consolidates above 1.1028, it could extend this correction to 1.1085, that is, to its limit as a correction. But if the pair surpasses this level, it will mean the continuation of the entire uptrend from September 25, 2022. However, this growth also has a small chance of a build-up, its first resistance level is 1.1155.

    Today, the June CPI data will be published in the United States. The total CPI is forecasted to fall from 4.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y, and the core CPI is expected to decrease from 5.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. As the previous rise from July 6 was purely speculative, the market reaction to the data could even be against the data. This means that if the current market logic implies a softening of the Federal Reserve's policy in connection with forecasts for today's data, then the actual reaction could be the opposite (falling euro), as a cumulative view on the deterioration of the European economy and the resilience of the American one. It is also notable that the market ignored yesterday's drop in the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July from -10.0 to -12.2.

    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is developing sideways movement in its own range. This is a sign of increasing potential for a downward movement. All we have to do is wait for the US inflation report and look at the market reaction.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on July 13, 2023

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday's US inflation data came out better than forecasts; the core CPI for June fell from 5.3% YoY to 4.8% YoY, the overall CPI fell by 1.0% - from 4.0% YoY to 3.0% YoY. The euro surpassed the April peak and closely approached the target level of 1.1155. Now the price has revived the uptrend from September 25, 2022. After overcoming 1.1155, the next target will be 1.1222 (the support level from December 7-15, 2022).

    The pair may not surpass the 1.1155 mark today, but after a slight pullback to the nearest support level of 1.1085. The reason may be the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production in the eurozone - the forecast for May is -1.1% YoY against 0.2% YoY in April.

    On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the consolidation and moved upwards, and immediately into the overbought territory. This is also a sign of an impending pullback before the price rises further.

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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 14, 2023

    EUR/USD continues to rally higher towards the next upside target at 1.1444. In the longer term, we are looking for EUR/USD to move closer to the 1.2007 target as a minimum.

    Short-term support is seen near 1.1130 with solid support placed at 1.1033, which previously acted as resistance, but now, has shifted character to support after the clear break on Wednesday. In the short term, we could see the pace of the rally settle down, but the bias will remain towards the upside.

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