Brent: in war as in war

When pursuing many goals, you need to be prepared for the fact that they will begin to contradict each other. With a statement about raising tariffs from 10% to 25% for $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from May 10, Donald Trump brought Brent and WTI down by more than 2%, but at the same time strengthened the dollar (safe-haven asset) against currencies of developing countries (risky assets) . The risks of escalating the trade conflict between the United States and China, the two countries, which account for one-third of global oil consumption, led to a swift attack on black gold, but information about the United States sending bombers and aircraft carriers to the Middle East messed up all the cards.

The White House wants to punish Iran by reducing its oil exports to zero, but is unhappy with the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. Threats to Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, which will create serious supply disruptions, force Americans to demonstrate military force. At the same time, the growth of geopolitical tensions is a "bullish" factor for black gold. Try to make both goals accomplished at the same time!

In my opinion, the further fate of Brent and WTI will depend on two factors: a trade war and a prolongation of the agreement between OPEC and other producing countries on reducing production. The signing of an agreement on the contract of trade friction between Washington and Beijing, as well as the extension of the terms of the obligations of the cartel and Russia will make it possible for oil to continue the rally. On the contrary, the escalation of the conflict between the largest economies of the world and the increase in world production will launch a serious correction in the oil market. Technically, this can be expressed in the growth of quotations of futures for the North Sea variety above the resistance by $72.75 and $75.65, or in their fall below the support by $68.45 per barrel as part of the transformation of the "Shark" pattern in 5-0.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex