Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 25, 2015


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.5% to 13.26, S&P 500 closed 0.74% lower at 2,108.58 overnight) on renewed worries over Greece's debt crisis. After a list of economic measures, Greece said it was willing to undertake in exchange for financial aid, was rejected. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.7 bps to 2.372% Wednesday) and Japan's exports. But USD sentiment is soothed as the US Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from previous estimate of -0.7%. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is rising from oversold levels but the MACD is bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 125. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.95. The pivot point is at 124.15.

Resistance levels: 124.60 125 125.45
Support levels: 122.30 122.95 122.55

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