Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for April 02, 2014




We expect this pair to continue to consolidate with the possibility of a breakout or breakdown after Friday's numbers, but until then it is going to be very difficult to imagine the market doing anything of substance as the area has been so well-defined. The pair behavior is very sensitive to these particular announcement. Because of this, we feel that this is one that we can only buy at this moment time, at least until we see what the job numbers (US-non farm payroll, CAD-employment data) are.
The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.1279 and it has been consolidating near 1.1 levels. RSI is supporting for pull back view in the H4 & H1 charts. For hourly basis, the pair is facing resistance at 1.0380. One can enter longs above this level for targets at 1.0469 immediately. Above this, 1.1070 and 1.10917 are the resistance levels. On the downside, 1.1 is the strong support.
On an intraday basis, the pair is facing resistance at 1.105. If the pair crosses the purple line, it will fly up to 1.1081 (200EMA) and 1.1123 (50SMA). This view is valid until it breaks the 1.1 support levels. On the down side, if the pair breaks the 1.1 levels, the pair will move up to 1.0955 (March 06 low) and 1.0910 (February's low) and 1.08 levels. Until it holds the 1.1 levels, we can see a bit of pullback and bear attack will be possible, once the pair starts trading below 1.1 levels.
In fact, it's not until we get below 1.09 that we could possibly think about shorting this market. It obviously looks very supportive, and as a result, we simply will not sell until we are well below that level. In the meantime, even a pullback from here should be a nice buying opportunity as far as we can say, and with that we are in somewhat of a buy only mode".


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