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  1. #1781
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 20, 2022

    The euro rose slightly on Monday, supporting the strong resistance of the target level of 1.0032 and the MACD indicator line coinciding with it. This morning the resistance was pierced, but it is unlikely that speculators will decide to develop the movement before tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting.

    But the Fed meeting should be "soft" so that the counter-dollar market shifts to growth, and we do not expect a soft meeting, since the rate will be raised by 0.75%, according to the FOMC members themselves, and the committee's forecasts on inflation and future rates in light of the current situation is unlikely to be weak.

    We are waiting for the price to reverse from the achieved resistance to the nearest support at 0.9950. Next, we are waiting for the price to decline to the support of 0.9850. The Marlin Oscillator has penetrated into the growth zone, but this movement seems to be false so far.

    The price is trying to consolidate above 1.0032 on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. Formally, the technical situation favors the euro's further growth, but before the Fed meeting, we will refrain from both buying and premature selling. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on September 21, 2022

    On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair added 54 points amid an overall strengthening of the dollar by 0.53%. The US stock market lost more than 1% of capitalization yesterday (S&P 500 -1.13%, Russell 2000 -1.36%), but investors are still guided by the situation with the dollar. We believe that after the hype subsides after the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the yen may strengthen under the pressure of stock indices.

    While we are waiting for the price to rise to the nearest target of 145.10 - to the embedded line of the global price channel, if it is overcome, the growth will continue to the next line at 147.10. A price divergence with the Marlin Oscillator is possible in the area of the second target. This will be a sign of a trend reversal. The price is consolidating under the MACD line (143.83) on the four-hour chart. Consolidating above it, as an initial success, will push the price to storm 145.10. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways in the positive area. We are waiting for the Fed's decision and the dollar's growth against the yen

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 22, 2022

    After the euro's decline by 134 points yesterday, the price continues to decline under the target level of 0.9850 in today's Asian session. The inertial decline may continue to the level of 0.9752, from which we expect a reversal into a correction.

    Correction from 0.9752 on the technical side may be due to the emerging extended convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. It also appears on the weekly chart. If the price still manages to consolidate under 0.9752, then the euro is waiting for the underlying levels of 0.9692 and 0.9625.

    In the long term, we look at the euro's fall to the levels of the winter 2002 area, to the 0.8600 area, which would correspond to a Fibonacci reaction level of 200.0% on the monthly scale chart.

    The price has consolidated below 0.9850 on the 4-hour chart, Marlin is in the negative area, but is already making the first attempts to slow down this decline. We are waiting for the price at the target level of 0.9752.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 23, 2022

    Yesterday, the euro closed the day at the opening level. The closure occurred under the resistance of 0.9850 and formally this means consolidating under the level. But since there is practically no body of the candle, the consolidation itself is formless, weak. At the same time, convergence is also formed with the Marlin Oscillator.

    A slight increase in the price is visible this morning, with the intention to go above 0.9850. Consolidating above the level opens the way to 0.9950. It is possible to continue growth to the 1.0032 level. All this growth will occur in the general direction of the downward trend. Upon completion of the correction, a new wave of medium-term decline will begin to develop. In this case, the key level of 0.9752 that we noted will be overcome with more energy, the price will try to settle at 0.9692 and go below (0.9625).

    The strong growth of the Marlin Oscillator indicates the beginning of the correction on the four-hour chart. Consolidating above 0.9850, and with it the transition of Marlin to a positive area will create a technical basis for further growth to the target level of 0.9950. A little below the 1.0032 level is the MACD line. If the price rises, this line will turn up, press against the linear level, strengthen it and create tension by the end of the correction. It will also turn out that in the area of 1.0032, the MACD lines of both scales will coincide, which will also strengthen the resistance. A puncture of this level is possible to 1.0051, to the high of September 20, but this puncture will already be false. This is the main scenario. An alternative scenario allows the price to rise to the upper area of a prolonged and broad consolidation of August-September at 1.0150.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 26, 2022

    The British pound fell by an incredible 417 points (-3.65%) on Friday, reaching strong support from the 1.0830 price level and price channel line of the monthly timeframe. This morning, during the first four hours of the trading session, the price fell by another 490 points in the moment, winning back half of the fall in the next half hour.

    Now the price is between the target levels of 1.0310 and 1.0535. The Marlin Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the ultra-high volatility of the pound indicates its potential correction in the near future. The optimal strategy in this situation would be to wait for the correction to be completed and then open new short positions. The nearest target at 1.0310, formed by the embedded line of the price channel, remains unworked out. Leaving the area under it opens the 1.0140 target.

    On a four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is already headed for a correction - the price is consolidating under the level of 1.0535. We are waiting for the correction to be completed, the market to be calm, and the price to move down further.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 27, 2022

    Yesterday, the pound fell on Friday's example, but this time, after a decline of 487 points, there was a strong rebound of 570 points. The day was still closed with a black candle.

    The lower shadow still did not reach the target level of 1.0310. Now there is a consolidation under the level of 1.0830. Upon completion of the consolidation, we are waiting for a new wave of decline to 1.0310. Intermediate level of 1.0535.

    On the four-hour chart, the price reverses before the resistance level of 1.0830, and the Marlin Oscillator also reverses. If the price does not change its mind and decreases from the current levels (without re-working out 1.0830), then we are waiting for it at the first target of 1.0535.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 29, 2022

    Yesterday there was a sharp and strong correction in the yields of US government bonds. Yields on 5-year bonds fell from 4.19% to 3.97%, returning to levels of the 23rd. Following the yields, the stock market also corrected the S&P 500 grew by 1.97%. Oil and gold rose. The euro added 143 points. The price reached the target level of 0.9752, reversed from it and is now breaking through the support at 0.9695.

    We believe that the correction has ended due to the large price growth and strong resistance. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down. We are waiting for the price to overcome the supports 0.9625, 0.9520 and reach the level 0.9404. We expect a longer correction from this level. It is close to the February 2000 low (0.9399), which, taking into account the error in the 22-year history, can be taken as coinciding levels. On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate below the level of 0.9695. The Marlin Oscillator is trying to move back into negative territory. We also note that yesterday's growth occurred under the balance indicator line (red), which indicates a purely corrective nature of this movement.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for October 4, 2022

    EUR/USD still needs to break clearly above minor resistance at 0.9851 to add confidence in our preferred scenario that a long-term corrective bottom is in place at 0.9536. A break above minor resistance at 0,9851 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.0051 will confirm the low being in place and that a new impulsive rally in wave 3 or C is unfolding. Ultimately, this impulsive rally will break above the peak of wave 1 or A at 1.6038. However, for now, let's take the rally from 0.9536 in baby steps and look for a break above minor resistance at 0.9851 as the first good indication that the corrective decline from 1.6038 has been completed.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 5, 2022

    The euro rose 160 points yesterday on the back of continued risk appetite in the stock markets. The US S&P 500 added 3.06%. Yields on government bonds also fell - on 5-year bonds from 4.06% to 3.88%. The level of accumulation of stop losses in the area of 1.9870 was overcome and the euro was able to overcome the technical resistance - the level of 0.9950 we defined and the MACD line of the daily scale.



    The price stuck in the range of monthly consolidation on August 22-September 20 at 0.9950-1.0050. Yesterday's surge in the stock markets is unlikely to repeat today, and on Friday there will be data on labor in the US for September. The forecast for new jobs in the non-farm sector is 250,000, which is very good and could add to the worries about the rate. At the upper border of the specified range (1.0050), the price will most likely reverse downwards, with the price returning below 0.9855. The price may not reach 1.0050. The main sign of a reversal will be consolidation under 0.9950.

    Divergence is already visible on the four-hour timescale. It can be smoothed out in the next 24 hours, but this is a visual indication of further difficulties for the bulls in the monthly price consolidation zone. Albeit with difficulty, but the price can still consolidate under the level of 0.9950. We are waiting for the development of events.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 6, 2022

    The euro fell by 100 points yesterday, returning below the target level of 0.9950 and under the MACD indicator line of the daily scale. The lower shadow of the daily candle worked out the support of 0.9855. We also note that the price reversal occurred from the balance indicator line (moving red), which separates the interests of strategic bulls and bears.

    From the standpoint of this indicator, it can be seen that the entire growth of 4.5 figures of the last week had a corrective nature of the medium and long-term trends. Now, after the price goes under the nearest support of 0.9855, the next target level at 0.9724 will become available. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the positive area, the market is gathering strength to overcome the support of 0.9855.

    On the H4 chart, the price divergence with the Marlin Oscillator turned out to be effective. The signal line of the oscillator touched the zero line and lingered for some time in front of it. Leaving the price under 0.9855 will give new strength to the euro to move down.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 7, 2022

    Yesterday the euro successfully overcame the support of 0.9855 and rushed towards the support of 0.9724. The euro is declining even faster than its growth in recent days. Consolidation under 0.9724 opens the 0.9520 target. Marlin Oscillator fixed in negative territory.



    Employment data for September will be released today. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 250,000, which is a very good indicator with an unemployment rate of 3.7%. The markets are seriously tuned in to such data, as yesterday all dollar assets fell in price, including commodities and stocks.



    The price is preparing to attack the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The MACD line itself is approaching the target level of 0.9724, so the price level is of key importance. The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the downward trend area.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  12. #1792
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 11, 2022

    Yesterday, the euro overcame the support of 0.9724, but has not yet consolidated below the level. To settle below this area, you need to close today's candle below this level. Of course, there is such a possibility, but the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is turning up, which already calls into question the further vigorous price decline.

    In case of reverse consolidation above the level of 0.9724, a corrective growth from the previous 4-day decline to the level of 0.9855 is possible. The condition for the continuation of the decline is to overcome yesterday's low of 0.9682.

    The price consolidated under the MACD line and under the price level of 0.9724 on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator is in negative territory. The overall situation is down, and unless there is some very positive news for the eurozone, the decline may continue. Aim for 0.9520.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 12, 2022

    Yesterday, the euro traded in a solid range of 103 points, but the closing of the day was almost at the opening level and in fact the price settled on the daily chart, under the key level of 0.9724. As a result, now we are waiting for a more confident price decline to the level of 0.9520.

    Eurozone industrial production data for August will be released today. An increase of 0.6% and an improvement in the annual rate from -2.4% to 1.2% y/y are expected. Market participants will be drawn to today's release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting - investors need to find out if their federal funds rates are justified in the 78% probability of a 0.75% rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting on November 2.

    On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated under the MACD line and under the level of 0.9724 now after a false exit above these lines. We look forward to continuing the chosen course. Not far from the target level of 0.9520 is an intermediate target of 0.9554 the low of September 26th. The level is strong, so the target of the movement can be defined as a range of 0.9520/54.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 13, 2022

    Yesterday's publication of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed a rather hawkish mood of the members of the monetary policy committee, but the markets practically did not react to it, if we do not take into account a brief revival at the time of the immediate release.

    Today the focus will be on US inflation data for September. Core CPI is projected to rise from 6.3% y/y to 6.5% y/y, headline CPI is expected to decline to 8.1% y/y from 8.3% y/y in August. If we add to these mixed forecasts the expected increase in initial jobless claims, which is expected to increase from 219,000 to 225,000, that is, with a jump above the one and a half month data, then preferences for long positions on the dollar will prevail. The price is still consolidating below the 0.9724 level on the daily chart. The Marlin Oscillator is growing, so it is undesirable for the bears to delay pushing through the euro, as the bulls can become more active and consolidate above the specified key level. And the 0.9855 target opens above it. The main scenario assumes a decline to support 0.9520.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is generally consolidating under the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator shows the intention to reverse down from the zero line. We are waiting for the price in the target range of 0.9520/54.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 14, 2022

    Yesterday was another day of high volatility. The euro traded in the range of 176 points, closing the day with an increase of 74 points. The price has moved above the resistance level of 0.9724, now the 0.9855 target is just ahead. The daily-scale MACD indicator line is approaching the level.

    According to the first version of the correction, the growth may end in this area. According to the second option, the growth may continue to the level of 0.9955 - to the low of July 14, which will create a false exit of the price above the MACD line. If later the price returns and settles under the MACD line, then the subsequent decline may be below 0.9520.

    The media cite arguments for the euro's growth: the market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's November rate hike of 0.75% and even the "ceiling" of the rate of 4.85% in March next year. We allow such an interpretation and quote the euro at current levels at a rate of 4.85%, but then political factors should be removed from the components, including the latest event - sabotage at the Druzhba oil pipeline in Poland. Oil rose by 2.44% yesterday, the stock index S&P 500 by 2.60%. That is, there is a short-term return of market players to risk. At the same time, yields on US government bonds are not declining. So far, we are seeing a "shake-up" of the market on US inflation data. Yesterday, the core CPI for September showed an increase from 6.3% y/y to 6.6% y/y, while the overall CPI fell from 8.3% y/y to 8.2% y/y.

    On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the level of 0.9724 and MACD line. Growth stopped at the balance line, which shows the consolidation of the "bulls" for a short-term turning point in their favor. Marlin Oscillator is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the end of the correction either at the nearest level of 0.9855 or at 0.9950, which is more likely due to the nature of yesterday's reversal.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Analytische Bewertungen Forex: Forecast for GBP/USD on October 17, 2022

    The pound returned to the support of 1.1170 on Friday after British Prime Minister Liz Truss sacked Treasury Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who had been in office for just 38 days.

    And since the sell-off of the pound was emotional (-148 points), today's opening was with a rising gap. The gap tells us that the market will try to close it, which will mean that the price will go under the support level of 1.1170, and then it may continue to decline to the support of 1.0815 - to the green price channel line.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 19, 2022

    The euro stalled on the strong price level resistance at 0.9864 (September 6 low) in line with the daily MACD indicator line.

    The Marlin Oscillator is growing in the positive area, which means that the price is preparing to exit above the resistance. If this attempt turns out to be successful, then the increase may last up to 0.9950/52, the low of July 14th. In order for the price to turn towards 0.9724, it needs to overcome the cluster of peaks on October 13-14 near the level of 0.9806.

    The situation is similar on the lower timeframe; consolidating above 0.9864 will allow the euro to rise to the target level of 0.9950, consolidating under 0.9806 will again direct the quote in a downward direction to the target level of 0.9724.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 21, 2022

    The euro bulls did not want to give up easily yesterday - the trading range was 92 points and the day closed with a white candle of 15 points. On the technical side, the price took advantage of the confusion of the Marlin Oscillator at the zero neutral line.

    But already in the Pacific session, yesterday's growth was blocked, the price again rushed to the nearest support of 0.9724, the Marlin Oscillator is pushing through the support of this zero line. A decline below 0.9724 opens the next target at 0.9520.

    On the four-hour chart, the price makes a second attack on the support of the MACD line. The price also moved under the balance indicator line, which shows us the shift in the players' mood to sell. The Marlin Oscillator is moving deeper into the downward trend.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Litecoin for October 25, 2022

    Our preferred scenario for Litecoin shows that wave 2/ completed at 48.41 but we need a break above resistance at 55.94 to confirm the low and a rally to the neckline resistance near 65.10. Only a break above here will confirm a long-term corrective low being in place for the next strong rally higher to 97.38 and likely even closer to 116.85.

    In the longer term, a break above the neckline resistance will indicate a new impulsive rally towards the former peaks in the 375 - 400 area.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Litecoin for October 26, 2022

    Litecoin has now broken above resistance at 56.43 which will be calling for more upside towards the S/H/S bottoms neckline near 65.00. A break above here will activate the bottom formation for a rally towards the S/H/S-target at 97.38 and possibly even the extension target at 116.85. However, in the longer term, we expect a much stronger rally and Litecoin to continue higher towards its all-time high near 400. Ultimately, the all-time high peak at 413.60 should be broken too, but it could be far out in the future. So, let's work with the data we have and take it in baby steps as always and look for a test of the neckline resistance at 65.00 as the next upside target.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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