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  1. #1501
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 14, 2021

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar dropped 32 points yesterday, which nevertheless showed an inclination towards a downward scenario.

    The Marlin oscillator is still inside its own wedge, but the intention to get out of it (to the downside) is indicated by yesterday's movement. The first target at 0.7410 is the July 9th low, then the embedded price channel line at 0.7370.

    The price settled below both balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator consolidated in the downward trend area on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for development according to the main scenario. Consolidating above the MACD line, above 0.7470, may once again encourage the price to test the price channel line in the 0.7517 area. Consolidating above it will cancel the main descending scenario.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of the S&P 500 for July 15, 2021

    The S&P 500 index is now within striking distance of our long-term target at 4,444. At the same time we are seeing a clear loss of upside momentum indicating that continued upside progress will prove difficult. Short-term it will take a break below support at 4,139 to indicate that a top is in place and a larger corrective decline is in motion. A break below support at 4,035 will confirm that a five wave rally from the March 2020 low at 2,182 has completed and at least this rally now needs to be corrected. We do think that the ongoing wave 5 completes an even larger five wave rally back from March 2009 indicating an even larger corrective decline.

    However, for now and as long as minor support at 4,139 is able to protect the downside we should look for a final pop to 4,444 to complete the ongoing impulsive rally from 2,182.

    Trading recommendation:

    Consider selling the S&P 500 index near 4,444 or upon a break below 4,139. If you are long the S&P 500 index tighten you stop to 4,139

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro fell by 23 points on Thursday, having not decided to retest the target level of 1.1855. The growth of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator inside its own channel has stopped, now it is possible to reduce it and exit the channel downwards. The first target of the euro is 1.1705 - the low on March 31.

    The price has settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is declining in the negative zone – in the declining trend area. We are waiting for the price to fall further towards the specified goal.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Friday's report on retail sales in the United States for June exceeded expectations: the total volume showed an increase of 0.6% against the forecast of -0.4%, the core index added 1.3% (forecast 0.4%). The dollar index strengthened by 0.14%, but the euro fell by only 7 points. But the mood kept falling, technical indicators support it.

    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slowly moving to the lower border of its own local rising channel. Exit from it to the downside will accelerate the euro's decline. The first target at 1.1705 is the March low.

    The price and oscillator have formed triangles on the 4-hour chart. The synchronous output of the price and the oscillator from the triangles down can also set momentum for a downward movement. The signal level is Friday's low at 1.1792.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 20, 2021

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar hit its first bearish target at 0.7344 yesterday. Further supports and targets are close: 0.7295, 0.7244 (high on October 9, 2020), but such a move is also indirectly due to the potential convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily timescale (dashed line), which slows down movement and increases intraday volatility.

    The price is holding on to the reached level on a four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is turning up, and today a slight correction is likely after the previous three-day decline.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 21, 2021

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar is slowly declining amid technical constraints - the price fluctuates between the adjacent price channel lines and below the target level of 0.7344, which is also located between these lines.

    Overcoming yesterday's low at 0.7301 opens the nearest target at 0.7244. A price reversal from this level to the upside is possible under the influence of the emerging convergence with the Marlin oscillator. Potential correction may continue up to the MACD line. At 0.7500, it intersects with the embedded price channel line.

    The price shows an intention to break through support at 0.7301 on the four-hour chart. The impetus for this was set by weak retail sales in Australia in May, which showed a decrease of -1.8%. The Marlin oscillator is turning down in the downward trend area. We are waiting for the aussie to move towards the specified goal.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 26, 2021

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The EUR/USD pair volatility is subdued, which is typical for a Falling Wedge pattern in progress. The strong technical support had been established at the level of 1.1761 and the bears had failed to break through it many times. In a case of a breakout ot the upside, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1820 (the key short-term resistance) and 1.1850. The corrective cycle can be terminated if the level of 1.1883 is clearly broken. The rising momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.1888
    WR2 - 1.1859
    WR1 - 1.1808
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1781
    WS1 - 1.1732
    WS2 - 1.1699
    WS3 - 1.1653

    Trading Recommendations:
    The down trend continues with a new swing low being made around the level of 1.1761. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704 and the Falling Wedge pattern is being made around this level. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 27, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro rose by 33 points, while the Marlin oscillator entered the growth zone on the daily chart. Now the price can boldly attack the nearest target level of 1.1850. Consolidating above it will mean that the price is ready to attack the MACD line, moreover, at the point of its intersection with the target level of 1.1925. Consolidating above the level opens the prospect of growth at 1.2050 - to the low on May 13. It could possibly decline after the price breaks through the July 21 low at1.1752. In this case, the Marlin Oscillator will be able to exit the rising channel and move down.

    The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Consolidating below it, below the level of 1.1800, introduces the price into the uncertainty zone up to the level of 1.1752. This uncertainty can be set by the expectations of market participants regarding the results of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. With the price breaking through yesterday's peak at 1.1817, it could continue to rise to 1.1850.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 28, 2021

    EUR/USD Before today's Federal Reserve meeting, the euro strengthened the reversal trend. Yesterday, another such sign of a reversal was a wide-range day of 71 points with a final rising close. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in positive territory within its own channel. The price's exit above the target level of 1.1850 will confirm the reversal and send the price to the target level of 1.1925, which is approaching the MACD indicator line.

    It is very likely that investors strongly doubt the tightening of the Fed's rhetoric even after good economic data. The main reason for such doubts is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the United States. Also on the agenda is a new problem for the United States – the completion of the legally approved deadline for increasing the national debt. Last week, the Minister of Finance, Janet Yellen, has already submitted a letter to Congress asking for an early resolution of this issue due to increased economic uncertainty (due to the pandemic) and a high proportion of retiring public sector workers. As usual, raising the national debt limit is a favorite object for trading between the chambers of Congress and this is not good for the dollar.

    On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance and MACD lines after a false short-term departure under them. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in this struggle turned exactly from the zero line up. We are waiting for the development of the upward movement.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday's economic data played into the hands of strategic buyers of the euro - even on average volumes, the single currency gained 43 points - this is the largest daily growth of the week. Unemployment in Germany in July decreased from 5.9% to 5.7%, the index of manufacturing sentiment in the euro area for the current month increased from 12.8 to 14.6, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany increased from 2.1% y/y up to 3.1% y/y. And in the US, GDP for the second quarter showed an increase of 6.5% against the forecast of 8.5% and the previous figure was revised down from 6.4% to 6.3%. US reports were even summed up by applications for unemployment benefits - the weekly figure was 400,000 against the forecast of 380,000. Today there are data on expenses and income of individuals for June. Revenues are forecast to decline 0.3% after the previous -2.0%, expenses may increase 0.7% versus the previous 0.9%. Such data is able to push for the euro's growth.

    The price stopped at the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left its own channel upwards, now, after a short break, the price will attack the important resistance at 1.1925, consolidating above which opens the target at 1.2050.

    The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator has turned down, but this appears as a discharge of the indicator before further growth. The correction limit is seen at the level 1.1850.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 2, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro fell 18 points last Friday, likely on partial closings since the start of the week, as trading volumes were above average. On the daily scale chart, the price found the indicator line of the balance with rather strong resistance in the current situation, the decline reached the target level 1.1850.

    The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is on the upper channel line. If this signal line returns to the channel, the previous exit will become false, and then the lower channel line may be reached, which will lead the euro to return to last month's high. Now this option seems unlikely, but for sustainable growth, investors still have to switch from risk aversion to risk buying, which means buying back the euro against positive US data and following the stock markets, if, of course, their growth continues. In this regard, today will be an indicative day. US construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in June, while the July ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 60.6 to 60.9. If on the positive data the euro shows growth, then overcoming the target level of 1.1925 will be a matter of the near future, and then the price will go to the target level of 1.2050 - to the low on May 13.

    On a four-hour scale chart, the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator begins to reverse from the zero line upward after the last session has been discharged. The upward trend is not broken.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 3, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the US PMIs came out mixed, not very convincing, and failed to provide the indicator of investor risk sentiment that we expected. The final Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was raised from 63.1 to 63.4, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI was even worse: 59.5 versus 60.6 in June. As a result, the euro ended the day at the close of Friday - no price change. The next event that can show the risk sentiment of the big players will be Friday's employment release from the Labor Department. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 880-920,000, the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.9% to 5.7%. The euro's growth at such powerful indicators will undoubtedly set a medium-term weakening of the dollar in all markets, the fall of the euro will show the resilience of investors to the expectation of a tightening of monetary policy.

    The price does not dare to go beyond the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart, which will lead it to fight the resistance of the MACD line (1.1925 and higher). Also, the price is still hesitating to overcome the lower level of 1.1847 (low on June 18), so that, after consolidating below it, returns to the downward track. This is hindered by the growing Marlin oscillator.

    The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero neutral line on the four-hour scale. The MACD line (1.1834) is below the level of 1.1847, so consolidating below the price level without settling below the MACD line will not be enough for a confident bearish signal.

    Thus, the euro is in a neutral situation, investors went into standby mode. Although, if they still have an intention to take risks, then the unhurried growth of the euro may last until the very release of data on US employment. Doubt in the presence of such sentiments is caused by yesterday's drop in stock indices (S&P 500 -0.19%), however, this may just be a reaction to vague PMI.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 4, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro situation has not changed over the past day, the technical picture has been preserved in all its details. On a daily scale, the price is below the balance indicator line and slightly above the target level of 1.1847.

    The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways in an upward trend area. Consolidating below 1.1847 will put the euro back on track for medium-term weakening. For the growth to develop, the price needs to settle above the MACD line and the target level of 1.1925. Market participants are awaiting Friday's US employment data.

    The price is above both indicator lines on the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone, the overall situation is neutral. For the development of a downward movement, the price must go below the MACD line (1.1837), that is, even below the level of 1.1847.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on August 5, 2021

    AUD/USD
    Yesterday, the Australian dollar fell 15 points under pressure from the US dollar, which gained 0.22%. The aussie has not lost the upward sentiment - the Marlin oscillator has settled in the upward trend zone.

    Reaching the target level of 0.7474 in the area of the trend line of the price channel is still the main scenario. A lot of work needs to be done to restore the decline - to go down below the level of the lower line of the price channel at 0.7333.

    The price managed to stay above the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is currently attacking the border of the growth area, the trend is upward.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 6, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the stock and foreign exchange markets did not take any action in anticipation of today's data on US employment. The euro, being under technical pressure, dropped slightly, consolidating below the target level of 1.1847. The euro is preventing the euro from working out the bearish target of 1.1705 by the Marlin Oscillator, which is reluctantly declining, being in the zone of the rising trend.

    The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is wide: 780-895,000, but this is not so much an optimistic factor as negative - if the indicator is closer to the lower bound of forecasts, even such an optimistic one, will have a negative impact on the dollar - resistance at 1.1925 can be overcome. Strong non-farms will send the euro to the lower target of 1.1705.

    The price has settled below the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the zone of negative values, the current moment is decreasing. But today fundamental factors prevail, so only the data release will set the direction of the European currency.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 9, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Last Friday, the euro fell by 73 points (-0.60%) due to strong data on employment in the US, but not at very high volumes. They were approximately equal to the volume of Wednesday, when the weak report on employment in the private sector was released. Nevertheless, the market's reaction was qualitative: the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 0.678% to 0.774%, the market expectation for the rate in December dropped from the likely holding of the rate at the current level from 100% to 90%, oil lost 1.39% , gold -2.51%.

    This market effect allows us to consider the dollar's appreciation in the perspective of several days. The target of the movement is the level 1.1705 - the March low. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is currently pushing through the border with the territory of decline.

    On the four-hour chart, there is a suspension after a sharp Friday movement, the Marlin oscillator turns up a little, perhaps today there will be a consolidation of prices before continuing to decline on Tuesday.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 10, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro was down 25 points. There are 30 points left to the target level of 1.1705, but the euro is already showing signs of an upward reversal. On a daily scale, the Marlin Oscillator has penetrated into the downward trend zone; there is still a possibility of reaching the target level.

    If we accept the version about yesterday's decline in counterdollar currencies due to a strong fall in gold, which fell 4.4% in the Asian session and closed the day by -1.89%, then its expected recovery today may prevent the euro from continuing to decline.

    On a four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is turning upward, forming a slight convergence with the price:

    Now the euro is in the consolidated wandering zone - the lower border of this zone is defined by the target level of 1.1705, the upper border is formally the MACD line, but it is quite high, therefore, most likely, the euro's exit from such uncertainty will largely depend on the time factor, that is the market needs to wait about a day for the MACD line to go down. Consolidating above it will return the euro to growth. Settling below 1.1705 opens the target at 1.1640.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 11, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the euro continued its inertial decline and almost reached the target level of 1.1705. Consolidating below the level may extend the decline to the second target at 1.1640, but the price has little chance of that, as the reversal signals are getting stronger. The Marlin Oscillator is planning an upward reversal on the daily scale in order to leave the downward trend.

    The convergence of the price and the oscillator is forming on the four-hour chart:

    But it won't be soon before the fixed reversal signal - the price has moved away from the MACD line and the reverse transition above it will take place no earlier than two days. At the moment it is 1.1775. Until this moment, the price can swing freely in the shaded area.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on August 12, 2021

    GBP/USD
    Yesterday, the British pound made its first attempt to overcome the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart. The trading range was wide, more than 80 points, so the price was limited only to testing this line.

    Today the pound started the Asian session with growth, so there is a good chance that today the MACD line (1.3887) will be overcome. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turns up from the lower border of the channel. We anticipate the pound's rise to 1.4069.

    The price is consolidating in front of the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin has settled in a growing trend. We are waiting for another upward price surge.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on August 13, 2021

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar was down 39 points yesterday, and this movement was enough for the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator to work out the neutral zero line on the daily scale.

    Now an upward reversal is planned from this border (arrow). But the aussie has not enough strength to grow, in general the price is decreasing along the line of the price channel, and if the price moves below the August 10 low (0.7317), it may drop to the target level of 0.7244. Growth may develop to target levels 0.7520 and 0.7590 only when the price rises above the MACD line, above 0.7405.

    The situation for the pair is even weaker on the four-hour chart. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator returned to negative territory yesterday. At the moment, the price is at an equal distance from the bearish signal level of 0.7317 and from the MACD line (0.7360), the transition above which will be a signal to attack the MACD line of the higher timeframe at 0.7405. We can only wait for the development of the situation.

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