Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 11-06-21, 07:47

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on June 11, 2021

GBP/USD
The British pound took advantage of the euro's uncertain state after the ECB meeting and gained 59 points. On the daily chart, it looks like a rebound from the balance indicator line.

But all is not lost for the bears: the Marlin oscillator is not growing, as it remains in the zone of negative values, and in the afternoon, as expected, weak data on the UK will be released. GDP for the first quarter is forecasted at -1.5% (-6.1% y/y), trade balance for April at 12.1 billion pounds against 11.7 billion in March, industrial production growth in April 1.2% against 1.6% a month earlier. Perhaps the price will return to the MACD line (1.4105), that is, to yesterday's opening. Growth, in case of good indicators, is possible, and it could reach a target level like 1.4244 and even further to 1.4277.

The price settled above both indicator lines on the H4 chart, Marlin is in a growing position. The short-term trend is on the rise. If the price returns below the MACD line (1.4150), then the movement will continue to 1.4105.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 18-06-21, 09:22

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURNZD approaching descending trendline resistance! Drop Incoming!

Price is approaching 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. A short term drop below our 1st resistance at 1.70255 towards 1st support at 1.69560 could be possible. Stochastic is testing resistance where price pulledback in the past.

Trading Recommendation
Entry: 1.70255
Reason for Entry:
78.6% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance
Take Profit: 1.69560
Reason for Take Profit:
-27.2% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical overlap support
Stop Loss: 1.70583
Reason for Stop Loss:
Graphical swing high resistance

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 21-06-21, 09:03

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June!

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has been seen going lower again after the breakout to the downside from the consolidation zone. The next target for bears is the long term trend line support around the level of 1.1795 (marked as orange line on the daily time frame chart). Any violation below this line would trigger another wave down towards the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1704. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.1986.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2305
WR2 - 1.2222
WR1 - 1.2007
Weekly Pivot - 1.1927
WS1 - 1.1702
WS2 - 1.1620
WS3 - 1.1401

Trading Recommendations:
The distribution cycle had been completed and now the market is on the move down. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-06-21, 08:48

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro gained 55 points from the target level it achieved on Monday and is currently showing a decline this morning. Perhaps,it might surpass the first price support on the way to the mid-term decline of 1.1855 by today or tomorrow and then the euro will continue to decline. The next target is 1.1705 - the March 31 low. The Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart seems to have fallen deep enough that the rate of decline might slow down.

On a four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn around from its own zero line, which characterizes yesterday's growth as a moderate correction. Exit above Friday's high at 1.1926 will bring the oscillator into the zone of positive values. This pattern will allow the price to strengthen the corrective growth, possibly even to the MACD line to the level of 1.1990, where the H4 shows a micro consolidation from the 17th.

The continuation of the decline is considered as the main option, as it has a 55% probability. The deepening of the correction to 1.1990 is accepted as an alternative, but it provides the opportunity to enter the market with short positions at the best price.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 24-06-21, 09:02

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on June 24, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar took on higher commitments yesterday and bravely stepped out of the embedded price channel line. The Marlin oscillator keeps the market interest in buying yesterday and today in a growing position.

Our main scenario is a downward one, but if the price overcomes yesterday's high, it is possible that the growth will continue to the level of 0.7647 - to the low on June 3. A price return below the price channel line below 0.7552 will return the price to a downward mood. The closest target will be the level 0.7490.

On the four-hour chart, the price met an obstacle to growth from the side of the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is flat, but declining. We are waiting for the price to settle below the level of 0.7552 and a further decline to 0.7490.

According to the alternative scenario, after consolidation above 0.7600, growth to 0.7647 is possible.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 28-06-21, 08:51

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas for June 28, 2021

Natural Gas just complete a cup with handle bottom calling for a rally towards 5.26. We currently see support at the cup with handle neckline at 3.40 and key support that should be able to protect the downside is seen at 3.13.

Longer term we will be looking for much higher levels, but expect resistance in the 4.92 - 5.26 zone should spark a period of consolidation before the next push higher towards 6.13 - 6.49 as the next target zone

Trading recommendation:
Buy Natural Gas or UNG to get exposure and place you stop at 3.10 for the rally to the 4.92 - 5.26 target-zone

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 30-06-21, 08:24

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on June 30, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 54 points on Tuesday and so it settled below the line of the descending price channel (0.7542). The Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative area, the price has 25 points left before moving below the nearest target level of 0.7490. After that, the target range 0.7400/10 had become active.

The price settled below the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, below the level of the price channel at 0.7542, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative area with no signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the price to move down even further.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 01-07-21, 09:18

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for June 30, 2021

Technical outlook:
EURUSD is still testing its support trend line since March 2020 lows around 1.1885/90 today. It needs to break into the sell zone to accelerate further lower towards 1.1700 going forward. A bullish bounce here might produce a pullback rally towards 1.2030 levels before reversing lower again. Overall structure continues to remain bearish until prices stay below 1.2266 levels.

EURUSD is trading near the intraday low around 1.1885/88 at this point in writing and is expected to break lower towards 1.1730/40 soon. Immediate support is seen through 1.1700 while resistance is fixed at 1.2266 levels respectively. In case of a gartley being produced here, the counter trend rally could reach 1.2000 handle, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent down swing.

EURUSD potential remains to drop towards 1.1300 at least in the next few weeks time. It could further extend lower through 1.0636 mark and attempt a break below its March 2020 lows.

Trade plan:
Remain short for now, stop @ 1.2266, target is @ 1.1300.

Good luck!

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 02-07-21, 09:04

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 2, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, as expected, the euro spent the whole day at the target level of 1.1855 in anticipation of today's data on US employment. The data is expected to be good: the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change (new jobs in the non-agricultural sector) for June is 700,000, the unemployment rate may drop to 5.7% from the latest data of 5.8%. Also, the volume of industrial orders for May is forecast to grow by 1.6%. We are waiting for the price to fall even further and reach the target level of 1.1705.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the H4 chart was flat yesterday. The short-term exit above the MACD line once again showed the falsity of such an intention and strengthened the downward trend. We are waiting for the development of events.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 05-07-21, 07:20

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 5, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar appears to have overreacted to the weakness in the US dollar on the day the US employment data was released. AUD/USD gained 57 points. The embedded price channel line at 0.7540 is close to a retest.

The general trend for the pair, of course, remains downward, but settling above 0.7540 can still fuel the correction. Under favorable circumstances, it is possible for the aussie to rise to the June 25 high at 0.7618.

But external circumstances are not yet favorable. Last Friday, different brands of oil closed mixed, iron ore fell 0.6%, and this morning, Pacific stock indexes show mixed dynamics. In such a situation, we should wait until Tuesday, when US investors return to work, and track their further intentions.

The price settled above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator, after its own consolidation, went up into the zone of positive values. Today, the aussie might move sideways.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 06-07-21, 08:08

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 6, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro showed a symbolic decline by 2 points on Monday, as US players were absent on the market. Technically, this highlighted the weakness of convergence on the daily chart, which could easily be transformed into any other formation.

On the other hand, the price has also formally settled above the target level of 1.1855, and if the price rises steadily today, the convergence may change its appearance into a more readable one. If the gain is not strong, then the Marlin oscillator may form a sideways range, as shown by the gray area on the chart.

Marlin is already on the horizon, and on the zero line on the four-hour chart. The price settled above the MACD line, but below the balance line (red indicator).

In general, the probability of price growth is 55%. With the price moving below the MACD line at H4 (1.1845), the probability of a further decline to the target level 1.1705 will increase to 65%. One can speak of a confident decline from the euro only after the price has surpassed the July 2 low of 1.1806.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 07-07-21, 08:03

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 7, 2021

EUR/JPY has seen a deep correction in red wave ii, but should stay above the low of red wave i at 130.04 for the next rally higher towards the long-term target at 135.41 where wave 3/ will be 161.8% the length of wave 1/.

Short-term we would like to see a break above minor resistance at 131.66 as a confirmation that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii higher towards 135.41 is in motion.

Under this count support at 130.04 can't be broken or a revision of our bullish count will be needed.

Trading recommendation:
Buy EUR and place you stop at 130.00 for a rally towards 135.41

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-07-21, 08:19

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro was declining during the day, in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC minutes and at the time it took place, the single currency practically already took into account the expected tonality in the price. There were no surprises, the Federal Reserve expects further improvement in the labor market and does not show any worries about inflation.

As a result, the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart continues to form (in the event of a stronger fall in the price, Marlin would go down more clearly). Nevertheless, the main scenario remains the development of the 1.1705 target level, and the slowness of the oscillator indicates the potential for a larger decline in the euro - to the second target level of 1.1640.

On a four-hour scale, the price reversed to the downside from the MACD indicator line. Here, too, there is still an opportunity to further the formation of convergence. But similar to the situation on the daily chart, the slowness of the oscillator towards a reversal preserves the potential for a deeper decline into the oversold zone.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 09-07-21, 08:43

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for July 09, 2021

Technical outlook:
EURUSD still remains vulnerable for a drop to the 1.1700/20 levels before pulling back for a meaningful counter trend rally. Until prices break above 1.1975 interim high, bears remain in a position to drag lower towards 1.1700 in the short term. As discussed yesterday, long term traders might hold short positions while short term traders might want to take profits around 1.1700.

EURUSD is seen to be trading around the 1.1832 level at this point in writing and is expected to turn lower towards yet another low below 1.1750 mark. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1975 while support comes in around the 1.1700 level respectively. Also note that prices are breaking below its 15 month old trend line support, which is quite bearish.

EURUSD medium term potential remains to the 1.1300 and 1.0636 level respectively. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of past rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 is also seen to be passing through 1.1300 levels hence probabilities for a bullish bounce remains high. At the moment, we shall watch out for a temporary pullback rally around the 1.1700 mark.

Trading plan:
Remain short, stop @ 1.2350, target @ 1.1300 and lower.

Good luck!

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 12-07-21, 08:25

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 12, 2021

USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair correctively rose after it reached the target level. This rise was preceded by a five-day decline. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has slowed down and is ready to resume falling in case the price weakens.

The dollar, of course, still has room for growth. The main resistance on the daily chart is the embedded price channel line and the MACD indicator line (110.70). A reversal into a new wave of decline may occur before these lines are reached.

On the four-hour scale chart, the first resistance and the target of the correction is the nearest local extremum at 110.40. Above it is the MACD line, and in approximately the same area where it is located on the daily scale - 110.70. This circumstance also indicates the correction limit. Rising above the level, and settling above it, breaks the main scenario of a medium-term decline.

Moving below the target level of 109.80 (high on May 13) will trigger a move towards the target level of 109.20 (low on June 8).

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 13-07-21, 08:02

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 13, 2021

USD/JPY
The yen remains the most difficult currency in the last month, its fluctuations occur with a periodic change of drivers - it is the stock market, then the fluctuations of the US dollar. As a result, the yen has been trading in a wide range of 109.55-111.65 for a month and a half. Yesterday, the S&P 500 gained 0.35%, the dollar index rose 0.14%, which has already consistently pulled the USD/JPY pair up 23 points.

Now the price faces the task of rising above the daily MACD line at 110.74, then the way to the target level 111.39 will open. This mark (110.74) also coincides with the central line of the growing lilac price channel, so the subsequent growth may be above the first target level.

The price is struggling with the local target level of 110.40 on the H4 chart. Surpassing it will indicate an attack on the MACD line at 110.64. Consolidating above this indicator line will be a preparation for an attack on the daily MACD line (110.74). To restore the downward movement, the price needs to go below the level of 109.80, which is more difficult to do at the moment.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 14-07-21, 08:12

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 14, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 32 points yesterday, which nevertheless showed an inclination towards a downward scenario.

The Marlin oscillator is still inside its own wedge, but the intention to get out of it (to the downside) is indicated by yesterday's movement. The first target at 0.7410 is the July 9th low, then the embedded price channel line at 0.7370.

The price settled below both balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator consolidated in the downward trend area on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for development according to the main scenario. Consolidating above the MACD line, above 0.7470, may once again encourage the price to test the price channel line in the 0.7517 area. Consolidating above it will cancel the main descending scenario.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-07-21, 08:51

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of the S&P 500 for July 15, 2021

The S&P 500 index is now within striking distance of our long-term target at 4,444. At the same time we are seeing a clear loss of upside momentum indicating that continued upside progress will prove difficult. Short-term it will take a break below support at 4,139 to indicate that a top is in place and a larger corrective decline is in motion. A break below support at 4,035 will confirm that a five wave rally from the March 2020 low at 2,182 has completed and at least this rally now needs to be corrected. We do think that the ongoing wave 5 completes an even larger five wave rally back from March 2009 indicating an even larger corrective decline.

However, for now and as long as minor support at 4,139 is able to protect the downside we should look for a final pop to 4,444 to complete the ongoing impulsive rally from 2,182.

Trading recommendation:

Consider selling the S&P 500 index near 4,444 or upon a break below 4,139. If you are long the S&P 500 index tighten you stop to 4,139

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 16-07-21, 08:34

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 23 points on Thursday, having not decided to retest the target level of 1.1855. The growth of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator inside its own channel has stopped, now it is possible to reduce it and exit the channel downwards. The first target of the euro is 1.1705 - the low on March 31.

The price has settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is declining in the negative zone – in the declining trend area. We are waiting for the price to fall further towards the specified goal.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-07-21, 08:16

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2021

EUR/USD
Friday's report on retail sales in the United States for June exceeded expectations: the total volume showed an increase of 0.6% against the forecast of -0.4%, the core index added 1.3% (forecast 0.4%). The dollar index strengthened by 0.14%, but the euro fell by only 7 points. But the mood kept falling, technical indicators support it.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slowly moving to the lower border of its own local rising channel. Exit from it to the downside will accelerate the euro's decline. The first target at 1.1705 is the March low.

The price and oscillator have formed triangles on the 4-hour chart. The synchronous output of the price and the oscillator from the triangles down can also set momentum for a downward movement. The signal level is Friday's low at 1.1792.

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