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  1. #1421
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 18, 2021

    USD/JPY
    The Japanese yen did not react strongly to the sharp weakening of the dollar yesterday after the announcement of the Fed's optimistic economic forecasts. The yen preferred to extend the consolidation and look around. This morning, the dollar stopped falling, and stock indexes continued to rise. This situation once again favors the USD/JPY pair in continuing to grow towards the target of 110.35. A weak divergence with the Marlin oscillator, as we noted yesterday, takes on the character of a discharge of the indicator before further growth.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is still below the MACD indicator line, the Marlin is formally in the growth zone, but continues to move sideways in its own range. The signal to buy will be the exit price above yesterday's top, 109.34.

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  2. #1422
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 22, 2021

    USD/JPY
    The USD/JPY pair was in a neutral state last Friday, closing the day almost at the opening level, this morning the market opened with a falling gap of 22 points, closed in the next half hour of trading. Conditions have been created in order for the price to move up to the embedded line of the rising price channel of the higher timeframe (110.37), but the Marlin oscillator is descending along a steep trajectory, which is more likely to prolong the price consolidation of the last five sessions. A reversal of the indicator and a breakout of the price to the upside is likely tomorrow on Tuesday.

    The price, with the gap closing, returned to last week's consolidation range highlighted by the gray rectangle on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator did not leave its own range. With the dollar's strength, and the price going over the MACD line in the area of 109.35, it is likely that the price will move to the upside.

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  3. #1423
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 23, 2021

    EUR/USD
    In yesterday's correction by closing the gap from the opening of trades, the euro overdid it a little, forming a white candlestick of 50 points, while other currencies were limited only to closing the gap. The price decided to work out the resistance set by the February 5 low and the correction was 62% from the March 18 high. The Marlin oscillator is developing in the negative area on the daily chart. Now we are waiting for the euro to fall to the first target level of 1.1800 - to the low on November 23, 2020.

    The balance indicator line kept the price growing on the four-hour chart. Marlin slightly went into the growth zone, but with general reversal moods, it can quickly return back to the negative half. The MACD indicator line looks loose, playing the role of a technical shaft, on which the price is wound. Nevertheless, being able to settle below it, under 1.1880, may become a working signal of the consolidated downward trend in the short term.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 24, 2021

    AUD/USD
    This morning, the Australian dollar reached its first target set at 0.7615, after losing 114 points yesterday. The main impulse was the New Zealand dollar, which declined by 150 points due to the introduction of budgetary measures to curb the growth of real estate prices.

    On the daily chart, Marlin Oscillator's signal line began to slightly turn. This suggests that the correction can be either from the reached level of 0.7615 or from the lower target level of 0.7565 (low of February 2). Regardless, the downward trend has already started, so we will wait for the price at the levels of 0.7500 and 0.7375.

    The price in the H4 chart is making an attempt to break through the support level of 0.7615, with the Marlin oscillator moving down. A consolidation below which will lead the quote to the 0.7565 mark. After that, we can expect a fair correction to eliminate the oscillator from the oversold zone.

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  5. #1425
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 25, 2021

    USD/JPY
    The USD/JPY currency pair managed once again to overcome the circumstances and refrained from a deeper correction, the goals of which were 108.16 and 107.35/50. The price turned around from the upper limit of support on March 10 to 11 and it resumed growth towards the target of 110.37 in the Asian session today, with the Marlin oscillator turned up. The target is determined by the nested line of the growing price channel of the monthly time frame.

    Based on the four-hour scale chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator now seeks to exit its own consolidation going up. The price overcame the resistance level of the balance indicator line, which shifted the priority to the pair's purchases. The nearest growth target, intermediate before 110.37 will be at 109.34 the Kruzenshtern line unfolding upwards.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  6. #1426
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2021

    EUR/USD
    In previous reviews, we counted on a correction based on erroneous information about Catholic Easter. The holiday was designated on March 26-29 in a number of economic calendars, while in reality it falls on April 2-5. The error in the calendars was corrected, and our inaccurate forecast, unfortunately, remained, for which we apologize.

    Meanwhile, the euro successfully passed the 1.1800 target level (now this level has been updated to 1.1810) and has moved to the 1.1745 target level.

    Now, either from the 1.1745 level, or from the current one, we expect a correction based on a more pronounced double convergence of price with the Marlin oscillator. The correction may still not be deep, limited from the top by the 1.1810 level, but it can continue in this range on Monday due to the lack of planned news.

    A reversal of the Marlin oscillator indicates a reversal from the current levels on the H4 chart. The 1.1810 level, as you can see, corresponds to a slight consolidation on March 24th.

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  7. #1427
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/ USD currency pair 03/26/21

    Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market is moving up from the level of 1.1768 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), and will try to reach the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.1849 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.1890-at the resistance line (the red bold line).

    Figure 1 (daily chart).
    Comprehensive Analysis:
    - Indicator Analysis up
    - Fibonacci Levels up
    - Volumes up
    - Candle Analysis up
    - Trend Analysis up
    - Bollinger Bands up
    - Weekly Chart up

    General Conclusion:
    Today, the price is moving up from the level of 1.1768 (closing yesterday's daily candle) and will try to reach the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.1849 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.1890 at the resistance line (the red bold line).

    Alternative scenario: the price will move down from the level of 1.1768 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) and will try to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.1711 (the red dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to continue working downwards with the target of 1.1691 at the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (the black dotted line).

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  8. #1428
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro slipped by 29 points yesterday, blocking Friday's gains, a sign of the price's sentiment to continue moving down against the pressure of the double convergence with the Marlin oscillator.

    But the question of yesterday's event has not yet been resolved - will the price stop in the struggle against convergence at the 1.1745 level, or will it continue to decline to the 1.1688-1.1700 range? There is a third option - the collapse of convergence and the price falling even deeper (after all, double convergence has not yet been fully formed), and there are fundamental prerequisites for this. Yesterday, investment ideas that have become traditional in the last month appeared in the media on the difference in the speed of recovery of the US and European economies.

    The Marlin oscillator approached the border of the growth area on the four-hour chart and is most likely to turn down from it. The oscillator's exit into the zone of positive values in this short-term situation does not carry a high level of information, it may also be a reaction to the way that the price will continue to consolidate sideways or on either side, not above the MACD line, which coincides with the target level of 1.1810.

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  9. #1429
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 31, 2021

    AUD/USD Yesterday, the Australian dollar broke through the signal level of 0.7641 with its upper shadow and closed the day with a decline of 37 points. The Marlin oscillator has been repeating its price movements for the last five days, unfortunately losing its leading main function. Nevertheless, it still has a large margin to decline before entering the oversold zone. We have a downward trend on the daily chart and the targets are set at 0.7565 and 0.7500.

    The price consolidated under the indicator's red balance line and the MACD line in the H4 chart. The Marlin Oscillator is at its zero neutral line and is ready to fall again. In this case, the first target level of 0.7565 is expected to be broken through, with 60% probability.

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  10. #1430
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2021

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the price of the lower shadow of the daily candle almost reached the upper border of the target range of 1.1688-1.1700. The upper limit can still be taken, the October 19, 2021 low at 1.1703, then the range will correspond to the extremes of October 15-19, and in this case it will be reached with an accuracy of point (1.1704).

    Today's US report on the ISM manufacturing PMI for March is expected to grow from 60.8 to 61.3, weekly applications for unemployment benefits are expected to decline from 684,000 to 680,000, and tomorrow the unemployment data will be released, in which new jobs in the non-agricultural sector are expected to reach 647,000(!) against 379,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 6.2% to 6.0%.

    All these circumstances make us think that the development of the Marlin oscillator in its own triangle will follow the option with the lower output (dashed line on the chart), and the current double convergence will be abolished. The euro will aim for 1.1560, the area of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

    The convergence flared up and went out on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after entering the growth area, found itself in negative territory again. The price may stay in the range of 1.1700/4-1.1745 for some time, but tonight or tomorrow it will go down, especially since the market will be thin due to the Catholic Easter holidays.

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  11. #1431
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 2, 2021

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3834 and made a local high at the level of 1.3850. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.3867 (61% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, if bulls fail to do so, the next target for bears is located at 1.3669 (recent swing low) and then at 1.3557 (weekly low from February 2021). The next technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3850. Please notice the momentum is neutral and can turn again into negative territory any time now.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.4089
    WR2 - 1.3984
    WR1 - 1.3884
    Weekly Pivot - 1.3780
    WS1 - 1.3675
    WS2 - 1.3568
    WS3 - 1.3466

    Trading Recommendations:
    The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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  12. #1432
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021

    EUR/USD

    A strong US employment report came out last Friday: 916,000 new jobs were created in March, the revision for February and January added another 156,000, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, while the share of the labor force increased from 61.4% to 61.5%. Another similar release, and ideas for an earlier rate hike may resurface. Perhaps this is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Moreover, we suspect that the labor report was regarded, because the Nonfarm is traditionally a manipulative tool, and the most radical forecasts were waiting for an increase above 2 million. But later on it will be clear how the government has seriously taken the improvement.

    However, due to the Easter holidays, the dollar was not redeemed intensively, and today Europe is also resting. The index of business activity in the US services sector according to the ISM for March is expected to grow from 55.3 to 58.5. New data can still push the euro down deeper, to the range of 1.1688-1.1700.

    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses from the upper boundary of its own wedge. As a result, we are waiting for the oscillator to go deep down. We are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.1560 - the approximate level of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

    The price turns down from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour scale. If the price moves below the nearest target level of 1.1745, the target range is 1.1688-1.1700.

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  13. #1433
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 6, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro gained 51 points in yesterday's US session. In related markets, government bond yields declined, stock indices rose (S&P 500 1.44%), while oil prices fell (-4.0%). So far, it seems that the dollar is more sensitive to increased expectations of a rate hike following the strong employment data on Friday, rather than due to increased risk appetite. The ISM Service PMI for March showed an increase from 55.3 to 63.7 against the forecast of 58.3, but factory orders slipped by -0.8% against expectations of -0.5%. In the current situation, there is no risk of the euro reversal upward, visually it is still the same correction.

    On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the triangle in the opposite direction to our expectations. Now the triangle is abolished and the double convergence remains, which carries the risk that the correction would reach the target level of 1.1950, the MACD indicator line is aiming for this level. But for this, Marlin must settle in the zone of positive values, the price must settle above the 1.1836 level - this is the March 9 low. The price rarely overcomes double convergences and divergences, creating a false signal, but now, with strong fundamental pressure on the euro, it can do so, so the best tactic today, and possibly tomorrow, will be to watch the market from the outside.

    Nothing to add to what has been said on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines and, being at strong price levels, looks for market reasons for a reversal or continued growth.

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  14. #1434
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2021

    GBP/USD
    The British pound did not follow the euro, the general weakening of the dollar, but turned downward from the area where the MACD indicator line coincided with the 38.2% correction level. The Marlin oscillator also turned down from the zero line. This simultaneous reversal of the price and the oscillator creates a strong downward signal. The target of this decline is the 1.3625 level.

    The price has settled below the signal-target level of 1.3845 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone, the price is visually preparing to overcome the support of the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3801.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021

    XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.

    Black lines - Fibonacci support levels
    Blue line - short-term support trend line

    XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 12, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The eurozone reports that were released last Friday came out weak: Germany's trade balance reached 19.1 billion euros in February against expectations of 23.4 billion and 21.3 billion in January, German industrial production fell by 1.6% against expectations of growth by 1.6%, industrial production in France fell by 4.7% (forecast + 0.5%). The euro fell by only 12 points due to the reports. Perhaps the euro has become attached to the yields on government bonds, which slightly grew on Friday. But both bonds and the dollar are still ahead...

    The Marlin oscillator is turning around its own resistance level at 0.0092. Let's consider the current moment on the four-hour chart:

    The divergence works out its influence to the full extent- the signal line of the oscillator is embedded into the zone of negative values. After surpassing the April 8 low at 1.1861, the first target level (1.1810) opens. The second target (1.1745) opens behind it.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 13, 2021

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair bounce has been capped at 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3763. The market reversed as the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market conditions are still quite oversold, so if the level of 1.3763 is violated, then the bulls might extend the bounce towards 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at 1.3792. Please notice, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the bears are still in control of the market and all the bounces are so far the counter-trend corrective in nature.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.4080
    WR2 - 1.4000
    WR1 - 1.3827
    Weekly Pivot - 1.3750
    WS1 - 1.3579
    WS2 - 1.3494
    WS3 - 1.3340

    Trading Recommendations:
    The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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  18. #1438
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2021

    EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro rose against macroeconomic data. The index of sentiment in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW for the current month decreased from 74.0 to 66.3 while expecting growth to 77.2, the consumer price index in the US increased by 0.6% in March against the expectation of 0.5%. Obviously, the reason lies in the decline in government bond yields. So 5-year US securities yield fell from 0.89% to 0.84%. The yield is falling for the second week in a row, and is now in the consolidation range of March 12-26, and this introduces an intrigue: will there be an upward reversal from it or a breakthrough to the downside?

    The technical situation for the euro has become more uncertain than in the last two days. The price went above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, shifting the market's interest in buying, possibly with the intention to overcome the resistance of the MACD line at the levels of the highs on March 18 and 11 - 1.1990. Getting the pair to settle above the level may push it to rise to 1.2025, then to 1.2105 - to the correction levels of 50.0% and 61.8% of the movement from the January high to the March low. The Marlin oscillator has gone above its own resistance at 0.0092 and is now strengthening in growth. It is still far from the overbought zone.

    The price moved up from the consolidation range on a four-hour timescale. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. The price clearly intends to test the first resistance at 1.1990 for strength. A reversal is possible only when the price has finally settled below the MACD line, approximately below the 1.1895 level.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2021

    EUR/USD
    The euro's growth from yesterday, since the dollar weakened, correlated with the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the economic club in Washington, where he spoke about the practice of reducing purchases of government bonds before raising rates. But the euro showed most of yesterday's growth even before Powell's speech, and his thesis itself did not make it clear exactly when the Fed would start to reduce its balance sheet.

    Yields on government bonds slightly grew: from 0.84% to 0.86% for 5-year bonds, from 1.62% to 1.63% for 10-year bonds. Perhaps there was a correction in bond yields, which caused the euro to strengthen in recent days. There is still no strict correlation between the dynamics of the euro and yields, the growth was caused, rather, by the loss of investment interest in the dollar, because the euro's growth in April took place at the lowest volumes over the past 12 months. Investment growth against the dollar will increase in the new cycle of attracting capital under the "Biden plan" and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. The placement of bonds under the Biden plan will begin next week (announcements of the auctions have not yet been published).

    On the daily chart, the price reached a strong resistance - the coincidence of the 1.1990 level and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has outlined a reversal, albeit not from the overbought zone, but with a fairly high value. A correction from current prices can be expected.

    A price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. If the euro continues to grow in the medium term, then we expect a correction to the MACD line in the 1.1990 area. If the euro turns into a new medium-term decline, then the price should settle below this MACD line.

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    EUR/USD
    The dollar stopped weakening yesterday. US retail sales in March showed an increase of 9.8% against the forecast of 5.0-5.8%. In addition, the weekly report of the Ministry of Labor on claims for unemployment benefits showed a decline from 769,000 to 576,000 (the forecast was 703,000) and industrial production grew by 1.4% in March with an increase in capacity utilization from 73.8% to 74.4%. The desire (or forecast) of a number of investment companies to see an increase in risk appetite is still not materialized. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.11%, but gold rose in price by 1.61%, the yield on 5-year government bonds fell from 0.86% to 0.81%. In the next week, the United States is placing debt obligations worth $227 billion, which will still increase the demand for the dollar.

    On the daily chart, the price confirmed the reversal from the strong level (1.1990) at the point of its intersection with the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is turning down more clearly. At the very least, we are now waiting for a deep correction from the growth from March 31, possibly to the target level of 1.1810 (61.8% of this entire growing movement). At the most, we are waiting to recover the downward movement with targets below 1.1700.

    The divergence has been confirmed on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone. If the price moves under the MACD line, below 1.1914, the price will confirm its intention to decline in the medium term.

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