Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-02-21, 06:38

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2021

AUD / USD
The Australian dollar rose by 77 points last Friday, breaking the level of 0.7641. Now, you should wait for the price to go back under this level so that you can start selling again. Today, the important macroeconomic data are not released, and the weakened indicators on the trade balance in Germany are expected tomorrow, which can move European currencies going down even more and along with them the "Australian" will weaken.

As we can see on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has almost reached the upper limit of its own descending channel, and here the indicator may linger.

Based on the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above the indicator lines of the balance and the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin is at the top but it is turning slightly. It is quite possible that the AUD/USD pair will have enough potential to stay here for a day.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 09-02-21, 08:19

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 9, 2021

AUD / USD
On the back of yesterday's pronounced increase in risk appetites given by the large-scale growth of cryptocurrencies - the value of this market for the day increased by 143 billion dollars, which led by bitcoin with a trading volume of 120 billion dollars, and the total capitalization of this market yesterday was 1.316 trillion dollars. Dollars, increased to 1.363 trillion, which strongly affected the market of real national currencies and stock markets: the Australian dollar rose by 26 points, the S & P500 added 0.74%.

As we can see on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the descending channel up and is currently preparing to enter the zone of positive values. The price itself went to the target range of 0.7765 / 83 (defined by the peaks of January 21 and 13), after which it can go to storm the January high of January 6, the target of which is slightly higher - 0.7830.

Based on a four-hour scale, the situation is completely growing: the price rises above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator rises without signs of a reversal. So, the nearest target of the Australian dollar is 0.7765/83.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 10-02-21, 06:59

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 10, 2021

AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar rose by 36 points. There is still much time left to go to work out the target range of 0.7765 / 83. Thus, it is already becoming much more difficult for the "Australian". The Marlin oscillator outlines a reversal from the border with the territory of growth. The price can work out the target range with a declining oscillator, but the growth should slow down, respectively, the goal will be reached only tomorrow.

Based on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is not pronounced but it is only discharged perhaps before the further growth. But be that as it may, the time for purchases is not suitable, it is only possible to hold previously opened positions.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 11-02-21, 07:40

NEW ZEALAND ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS SLIP 0.4% IN JANUARY

The total value of electronic card transactions in New Zealand was down a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on month or NZ$24 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - following the 19.2 percent spike in December.

Spending in the core retail industries slipped 0.7 percent on month or NZ$39 million.

On a yearly basis, electronic retail card spending was up 1.9 percent - slowing from 3.5 percent in the previous month.

By industry, the movements were: durables, up NZ$34 million (2.1 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$3 million (1.7 percent); fuel, down NZ$1 million (0.3 percent); apparel, down NZ$7 million (2.0 percent); and consumables, down NZ$31 million (1.3 percent).

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 11-02-21, 07:51

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2021

USD/JPY
The yen has been lingering suspiciously long at 104.62, forming a new consolidation on it. Such consolidation indicates the intention of the market to continue the decline, in this case, the target is to support the embedded line of the price channel in the area of 104.02. The signal for such a breakthrough will be the transition of the price under yesterday's low of 104.42.

If the price still intends to continue to grow, then it must do it today, overcoming the top of yesterday's 104.85. The Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chat is turning up, this sign preserves the probability of price growth.

But before reaching the main target of 105.33, the price will need to overcome two previous levels: the already specified 104.85 and 105.05 along the MACD line on H4. It is the MACD line that is now of the greatest importance; if the price cannot overcome it, then a trend reversal will occur with the intention of working out 104.02.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-02-21, 08:49

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/15/2021

We can absolutely calmly say that the single European currency has actually stood still for several days in a row. Of course it gradually decreased for nearly the entirety of Friday, and it completely won back all these losses closer to the end of the US session. But the scale of these movements, at best, can be called extremely modest. Something in the region of thirty points one way and the other. Which, in general, is not surprising, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty on Friday. So there was simply nothing for investors to grab onto.

Today the situation is somewhat different, as data on retail sales will be published in Europe, which should show zero growth. More precisely, they can show no change in annual terms. And oddly enough, this can be perceived as an extremely positive factor, since the European industry has been declining for twenty-five consecutive months. That is, it has been decreasing since November 2018. The data for December last year will be published today. In general, despite the depressing state of affairs in the European industry, the fact that the recession has stopped already seems like incredible growth, which will contribute to the euro's appreciation. Industrial production (Europe):

After a short pullback from the resistance point of 1.2150, the EURUSD pair returned to the area of last week's high, while showing interest in growth.

The market dynamics is below average, while local jumps are slipping in the market, which indicates that speculators are on it.

Based on the quote's current location, it is clear that market participants are already practically touching the resistance level of 1.2150, where, given the recent pullback, a regrouping of trading forces could have occurred, which will positively affect the volume of long positions.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the quote follows in the structure of the corrective move from the high of the medium-term trend of 1.2349, where, taking into account the recovery, we are about halfway from the high of the trend.

We can assume that the recovery process relative to the corrective move may continue to be present in the market, but in order to do so, the quote needs to stay above 1.2155, which will open the way in the direction of 1.2190, this is the first point of a possible move.

In case the price does not surpass the 1.2155 level on a four-hour period, then a fluctuation along the 1.2110/1.2160 range is not excluded.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a buy, since the quote can be found in the 1.2150 region.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 16-02-21, 08:19

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elon Musk continues to manipulate the currency market

Once again, news from Elon Musk, who has recently become extremely interested in the cryptocurrency market, comes out. Recall that at first, his comment on the social network led to an increase in bitcoin by $5 thousand, and then his company Tesla announced the purchase of bitcoin in the amount of $1.5 billion, which provoked an increase of another $5,000. Thus, in principle, only Elon Musk is responsible for a fifth of the cost of the "cue ball" at this time. It's scary to imagine what will happen if Musk or other similar businessmen comment on cryptocurrencies every couple of days. However, Musk decided to give bitcoin a break and switched to the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. In the social network Twitter, Musk made a post in which he supports the potential solution of large holders of the Dogecoin. According to Musk, the problem with the token is that it is concentrated in too narrow a circle of owners. After this statement, Dogecoin fell by 19%. Earlier, the same Elon Musk commented on the same cryptocurrency Dogecoin (wrote that it is undervalued) and then followed a powerful growth. Thus, only one owner of Tesla is responsible for four powerful jumps in the cryptocurrency market and this is only in the last 7-10 days. Well, traders can once again personally observe what is happening in the cryptocurrency market and what are the reasons for this. Bitcoin, by the way, this night again rose in price and is already worth almost $50,000 per coin. At the same time, it is still extremely difficult to name at least one fundamental reason why the cryptocurrency has grown 5 times in a few months. And it's not just Bitcoin that's growing! Other cryptocurrencies are also being pulled up, ergo, the entire cryptocurrency market is growing. The more news of this nature from Elon Musk or other major investors and companies we will receive, the more likely it is that cryptocurrencies will continue to grow in price. We continue to insist that sooner or later there will be a collapse. There will not be a scenario in which bitcoin will grow to $100,000 per coin, and then adjust to $80,000 and remain at this level in the medium term. No, when large investors start taking profits on long positions, then the "domino effect" will begin, everyone will immediately rush to sell bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies at the maximum value, which will lead to the collapse of the entire cryptocurrency market, as it was already in 2017. Therefore, we still believe that bitcoin is a great tool to make money, but we need to be prepared for its collapse.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 18-02-21, 08:11

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 18

The situation with COVID-19 is stabilizing. There is a strong decline in incidence in both United States and Europe. In fact, the US steadily recorded new cases below 100,000.

Vaccinations are also starting to progress rapidly, but only in the US and Britain.

EUR/USD is trading downwards. Primarily, this is because of strong economic data from the US.

Open short positions from 1.2080 to 1.2125.

Price will continue to decline if employment data (in the US) also comes out better than expected.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-02-21, 05:26

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 19, 2021

AUD/USD
The support of the balance indicator line has confirmed its impact on the price. After reaching the lower shadow, the price successfully broke through the entire range of 0.7765/83 and closed the day inside it. However, it is now trying to leave it in order to decline. In this case, the price should consolidate below yesterday's low, and move below the balance indicator line. If so, we can expect the downward trend to extend to the target range of 0.7625/41. The Marlin Oscillator is in the area of positive levels, and thus, we should get ready to break through this today.

In the H4 chart, yesterday's low of 0.7732 is located below the MACD line (blue moving average). This level can be a good pivot point to determine the price's intention to continue its decline. Here, the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative trend zone. It is possible that an attack on the signal level of 0.7732 will be made today, but the development can only be expected next week.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-02-21, 06:59

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2021

GBP/USD

The pound was trying to reach the target level of 1.4070 on the reversing Marlin oscillator last Friday and also this morning. The price, especially with the support from the growth of other world currencies, still has the opportunity not only to reach this level, but also to rise above it. But if there is no such support, the price will return to the 1.3950/65 range and, after settling below it, will go further down to the target level of 1.3835.

The four-hour chart shows that the probability of forming a divergence with the Marlin oscillator still remains, only it will be weaker. The divergence will not be broken if the price rises to the 1.4070 level. To open short positions, you are advised to wait for the price to settle under the range of 1.3950/65.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 24-02-21, 07:07

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 24, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro stopped rising on its way to the nearest target of 1.2190, but it is still determined to reach not only this target, but also 1.2272. Drifting under the MACD line, below 1.2105, will return the euro to a downward trend.

The price rises on the four-hour timescale, while the Marlin oscillator turns up. We are waiting for the price to overcome the first target at 1.2190.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 25-02-21, 06:05

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 25, 2021

USD/JPY
The US dollar showed a significant increase against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. Thus, it is now possible not only to reach the target range of 106.50/65 in the near future, but also to break through it, with the aim to rise further towards the target range of 107.35/50.

The price consolidated above both the balance indicator (red) and MACD lines in the H4 chart. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator is in the upper zone. The upward trend is likely to strengthen after the price managed to break through the February 17 high set at 106.23.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 26-02-21, 07:32

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 26, 2021

GBP/USD
The technical spike, that the British pound formed on Thursday, completely worked out yesterday - the pair dropped 128 points. The price reached the target range of 1.3950/65 this morning. Falling below the lower border of this range opens the next target at 1.3830 - the low on February 17. A correction is likely from this level, since by this time the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will reach the border with the territory of the downtrend and, most likely, will not overcome it on the first attempt.

The price settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - balance and MACD, while Marlin is deeply in the negative zone. The trend is completely downward.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 02-03-21, 07:30

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 2, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro traded in a range of 74 points, closing the day with a decline and consolidation below the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The balance line shows the market mood within the trend, the MACD line determines the trend itself. Now the price is approaching the target level of 1.2023, identified at the February 17 low. Getting the price to settle below it opens targets like 1.1915, then 1.1870. The Marlin oscillator is in a downward trend zone.

The price continues to fall without signs of a reversal on the four-hour chart:

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 03-03-21, 07:01

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 3, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar moved higher yesterday with the support of the Marlin oscillator, which has penetrated the area of the rising trend on the daily chart. But since this is a correctional growth, we do not expect a succeeding significant growth in price. There is an increase in prices on the commodity market and AUD/USD will feel a little better than European currencies, albeit without a pronounced growth.

The correction continues on the four-hour chart, the growth limit is seen in the area of the MACD line, near the level of 0.7875. After getting the price to settle below the target range of 0.7765/83, we expect it to fall to the range of 0.7625/41 (peak on December 17, 2020).

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-03-21, 07:21

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 8, 2021

USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair continued its intensive growth, reaching above the target level of 108.16. Visually, the price will close today with a white candle, but the Marlin oscillator has already reached the overbought zone and is planning a reversal from the upper limit of its own growing channel. This morning came the data on Japan's balance of payments for January, which showed a deterioration in the indicator: 0.647 trillion yen versus December 1.166 trillion and forecasted 1.23 trillion yen. The data, of course, does not contribute to risk appetite (Nikkei 225 adds 0.2% against the background of the Australian S&P/ASX 200 1.20%). But nevertheless, stock indexes are growing and keeping the dollar from a deep correction. It is possible that the correction will not go even under the overcome level of 108.16 (the top of July 1, 2020), so today can be closed with a small black candle. And tomorrow, the growth will continue to the previously defined target of 109.10. From this level, a deeper correction is already likely and the exit of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the growing channel will become false, it will return to it later.

There are no reversal signs on the four-hour chart, only the Marlin slightly decreases with the last three candles growing, but this is still not a trend and not a signal for a reversal. We are waiting for developments. Today, the main factor is time.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 09-03-21, 07:26

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 9, 2021

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro decided to go down from its local price channel. Now the following target levels are ahead: 1.1800 (low of November 23, 2020), 1.1745 (low of November 11), 1.1688-1.1700. The main target is the last one- the 1.1688-1.1700 range, which is referenced by the low on October 15, 2020.

The price divergence with the oscillator develops on the four-hour scale, but if it is not broken today, then only a nominal correction is expected, to the lower border of the price channel, from which the price left yesterday (1.1880).

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 10-03-21, 07:04

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 10, 2021

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 68 points. And although it did not try to break through the support level of 0.7615, it managed to work out the resistance of the MACD line on the daily time frame. This morning, the price is declining again, so we should still expect it to fall further towards the 0.7615 mark. Meanwhile, commodity markets have outlined a decline, which supports the currency pair. In this case, a prolonged decline can be expected tomorrow, when the ECB announces its monetary policy guidelines. The targets remains at 0.7565 and 0.7500.

The Marlin Oscillator slightly went above the neutral line in the four-hour chart, but it is going to return along it. Otherwise, the situation will remain unchanged, that is, moving downwards.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 12-03-21, 08:14

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 12, 2021

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen continued to adhere to its target yesterday to exit the declining price channel, that is, above the 109.17 mark, move towards the target level of 110.34, and possibly further rise. If we analyze the pair's growth amid the confusing ECB meeting on Thursday, there is a high probability that the price will reach the specified target level. The Marlin Oscillator signal line is also directed upwards.

The price in the H4 chart is supported by the balance indicator line. On the other hand, the Marlin is approaching the border within the growth area. Thus, the price is expected at the nested line of the upward price channel in the area of 110.34.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-03-21, 07:18

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on March 15, 2021

GBP/USD Last Thursday and Friday, the pound went above the target level of 1.3950 for a short time and is now preparing to attack the support of the MACD line (1.3800). Success will lead the pound to advance to deeper targets: 1.3630 and 1.3460. The same maneuver with a short-term exit above the neutral level was made by the Marlin oscillator and now it is in the downward trend zone.

The price is between the MACD line and the 1.3950 target level on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is formally in the growth zone, but it still moves horizontally along the border. A more probable development of the situation will be the price drift under the opening of the week (and under the MACD line on H4) and advance to the first target of 1.3800.

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