Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 04-01-21, 09:18

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 4, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has made new swing high at the level of 1.2309, but the Monday open was below the level of 1.2250 and the price pulled-back towards the trend line support. The Broadening Wedge price pattern is still in progress, so please notice that this particular pattern is a trend reversal pattern, which indicates a possible major correction on the EUR/USD soon. For now, the zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177 remains the key demand zone for bulls. The positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook as long as the demand zone is not clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2555, but this might be the last push up for EUR/USD before the correction. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 invalidates this scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2419
WR2 - 1.2360
WR1 - 1.2290
Weekly Pivot - 1.2236
WS1 - 1.2163
WS2 - 1.2103
WS3 - 1.2035

Trading Recommendations:
Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market might be making the Broadening Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 05-01-21, 08:25

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 5, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar lost around 40 points yesterday, stopping exactly at the December 17 high of 0.7641. We took this level in the last review as a signal to switch to a downward short-term trend with the target of 0.7465. Testing this level confirms its significance.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator stopped at the lower border of its own downward channel. Obviously, the market did not have enough strength to continue yesterday's trend. Buyers, albeit short-term speculators, still believe in the positive development of risky and commodity currencies, although oil fell by 1.74% (CL) yesterday . We expect the price to drop below the signal level and move towards the target of 0.7465 (December 21 low).

The four-hour chart shows that the price slightly pierced the MACD line and rebounded off the signal level of 0.7641. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone and is staying there this morning. We are waiting for the price's second attempt to overcome support at 0.7641.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 06-01-21, 08:53

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 6, 2021

GBP/USD
During yesterday's growth of the British Pound against the background of the general temporary weakening of the Dollar, there was an attempt to get above the target level of 1.3624. The attempt failed and there was only a minor puncture of resistance. Today, in the Asian session, the price played back half of yesterday's growth. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the line forming the divergence. The target of the Pound's decline is 1.3325 which is the Kruzenshtern line on the daily chart.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. With the price fixing under the Kruzenshtern line at 1.3578, the road to the marked target of 1.3325 opens to gain more confidence with the departure under the minimum on January 4 (1.3540).

The four-hour chart shows that the price slightly pierced the MACD line and rebounded off the signal level of 0.7641. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone and is staying there this morning. We are waiting for the price's second attempt to overcome support at 0.7641.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 07-01-21, 08:51

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 7, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro, as a risk currency, grew yesterday as a response to the information that the Democrats had won a seat in the upper house of the US Congress. At the same time, the latest macroeconomic report from ADP showed disappointing results on new jobs in the private sector - the index showed a decrease by 123,000 in December against expectations of an increase of 60,000 and an increase of 304,000 in November. Some believe that the upcoming data on unemployment will come out even worse; the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 98,000 against 344,000 in November, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from 6.7% in November.

It is difficult to determine where the euro will go with such data, since the January-April 2018 range is very wide (1.2206-1.2555), there are potential reversal levels within it in increments of 40 points. But at the same time, rising by another 70-100 points will not break the divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart, which will preserve the euro's potential for a reversal. In this section, we will define the 1.2397-1.2414 range as the target, taken at the extremes on April 11 and 17, 2018.

The short-term price decline was stopped by the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The price divergence with the oscillator is held. We are waiting for the euro to rise to the specified target range of 1.2397-1.2414, but we do not recommend opening longs. Getting the price to settle below the MACD line (1.2268) will signal an attack on support at 1.2215.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-01-21, 08:33

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 8, 2021

AUD/USD
Against the background of yesterday's large-scale strengthening of the dollar (only oil did not follow the dollar's growth), the Australian currency lost 34 points; it returned to the target level of 0.7770, the Marlin oscillator returned to its own downward channel, leaving the exit from it on the 6th as false, which we assumed in yesterday's review. Now, we are waiting for the signal line of the oscillator to exit the channel down, go into the zone of negative values, and further advance the price to the targets of 0.7641, 0.7465.

The price on the four-hour scale is still above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but Marlin is already in the territory of a declining trend, dragging the market sentiment to a further decline. In order to consolidate this trend, the price will need to go under the MACD line, below 0.7220. This is the main scenario.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 11-01-21, 07:55

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2021

EUR/USD
The US employment report from last Friday had mixed results; the non-agricultural sector lost 140,000 jobs against expectations of growth by 60,000, but at the same time the November figure was revised up from 245,000 to 336,000, the share of the economically active population remained at 61.5%, while the unemployment rate was at 6.7%. But the structure of labor data acquired a qualitative positive shift: the broad unemployment index fell from 12.0% to 11.7%, while 38,000 jobs were added in the manufacturing industry against the forecast of 20,000. But even if the data was not enough, it conveniently fits into the idea of the new administration of President Biden to adopt a plan for new budget expenditures worth several trillion dollars, and he will elaborate on the topic this week. In anticipation of this news, as well as at the beginning of the next cycle of attracting new debts by the US Treasury, the dollar was actively being purchased both yesterday and this morning. This week it is expected to raise 60 billion of net debt through government bonds.

The daily chart shows that the euro is initially aiming for 1.2050 - the MACD indicator line. If the price moves below the line, the second target will be 1.1885. But first, the price must overcome the 1.2152/77 range that was created by the extremes on December 23 and 4. There may be a slight correction from it. The Marlin Oscillator is in the downward trend zone, where it entered very decisively.

The four-hour chart shows that the price began to accelerate to the downside, from the area where the balance and MACD indicator lines coincide. The short-term trend is decreasing.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 12-01-21, 08:43

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro fell by almost 70 points on Monday, stopping in the designated range of 1.2152/77. Consolidation is observed in the range this morning. With the exit from the consolidation to the downside, more precisely, with the price moving below yesterday's low of 1.2132, we expect the quote to fall towards the target along the MACD line at 1.2045.

The four-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating in a narrow range of 1.2152/77, but the corrective reversal of the Marlin oscillator warns of a possible exit from this range, just slightly above it. The signal to sustain the fall will be when the price crosses the area under yesterday's low of 1.2132.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 13-01-21, 08:09

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 13, 2021

AUD/USD
On Tuesday, the growth of the Australian dollar covered the fall on Monday. Perhaps this is the intention of the price to set a new high with the formation of another divergence with the oscillator. However, a price reversal into a new branch of decline is also possible; for this purpose, there should be a consolidation under 0.7770, which will take another day, since the current candle should close below this level. Today, the situation is not trading.

The price on the four-hour chart is fixed above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. There are signs of continued growth, but false signals often appear on trend breaks. A more reliable signal will look like fixing the price under the MACD line (0.7735 / 40), after which the target level of 0.7641 can be expected to work out.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 14-01-21, 08:08

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro dropped 48 points and returned to the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. Leaving the range for growth can be mistaken for a false movement when the price falls below the lower border of the range, and this will boost traders' confidence for an attack not only on the nearest target of 1.2050 along the MACD line on the daily chart, but also below, to the target level of 1.1920 ( high on November 9 and September 10).

The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator operates on the zero neutral line, which to some extent weakens its leading role as a leading indicator. But on the other hand, if the price falls, the oscillator will have enough margin for a downward movement. We are waiting for the development of the situation. Before the price falls below 1.2132, the price may once again try to test the MACD line at 1.2225.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-01-21, 09:09

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 15, 2021

EUR/USD
On Thursday, the euro traded in the consolidation range of 1.2132/77 with a short exit from it to the downside, with an attempt to pull down the price below the balance line on a daily timescale. If the price settled below this line, it would mean a shift in market sentiment towards short positions in the medium term.

The Marlin Oscillator has been in a downward trend zone for a week now, a sign that the euro will strengthen its attempts to break down the remaining rising technical signs. The price continues to develop above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. Getting the pair to settle below it, under 1.2050, will strengthen the market's downward sentiment and send the price towards the 1.1920 target (November 9 high).

The price is consolidating in the 1.2132/77 range on the four-hour chart, but a more pronounced consolidation is observed on the Marlin oscillator. The main direction of the oscillator signal line's exit from the range is to the downside, but taking into account that it could form on the border of the positive area following the previous growth (technical figure "flag"), there is still a possibility that the price could rise to the MACD line (1.2220) or even to the target level of 1.2273 - the high on December 17. In order to confirm the price's intention to fall, the price would have to settle below the lower border of the 1.2132 range.

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**IFX Yvonne** · 18-01-21, 12:20

USDCAD is facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!

Price is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance in line with our horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension where we could see a drop below this to our first support target.

Trading Recommendation Entry:

1.2790

Reason for Entry:

horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 1.2745

23.6% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.2832

Reason for Stop Loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-01-21, 07:42

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 19, 2021

AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar fell slightly under the strengthening of the US currency. Today, the major currency pairs are undergoing a correction as the US dollar is weakening and counter dollar currencies are strengthening. The growth of the "Australian" today has already blocked yesterday's decline in the Asian session. After the correction is completed with the price overcoming the target level of 0.7641, it will most likely increase the fall to the target of 0.7465, which is approaching the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone and this circumstance will restrain the growth of the currency.

Based on the four-hour scale, the Marlin oscillator makes its way into the growth zone, strengthening the previously formed convergence. The end of the corrective growth is expected on the Kruzenshtern line in the area of 0.7743. Growth is also possible above the target level of 0.7770. The nature of the development of the oscillator indicates the completion of the correction tomorrow.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 20-01-21, 07:59

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 20, 2021

USD/JPY
Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair rose by 20 points without working out the trend line of the price channel of the higher timeframe (104.20). This creates a prerequisite for a repeated attack of the price on this resistance in the near future. The price is higher than the balance indicator line. If the quote moves below the signal level 103.57, which coincides with the support of the Kruzenshtern Indicator line (blue), it will create a condition for the implementation of an alternative scenario where there will be a decline to the level of 103.00.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price breaks under the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin Oscillator turns down from the border with the growth territory. A price decline to at least 103.57 is possible, after which we also expect a rapid increase to 104.20.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 21-01-21, 08:10

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 21, 2021

AUD/USD
Yesterday and this morning, the Australian Dollar rose by almost 80 points. Today, positive data was released on employment. Unemployment in Australia fell from 6.8% to 6.6%, while the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Fixing the price above 0.7770 may lead the dollar to the target level of 0.7905. The Marlin Oscillator, which has moved into the growth zone, pushes the price to this level.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price is already fixed above the Kruzenshtern Indicator Line. The price remains to gain a foothold above the reached level of 0.7770. If the price does not succeed and the consolidation occurs under the Kruzenshtern line below the level of 0.7744, the scenario for growth will be cancelled. The price will again pay attention to the target level of 0.7641.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 25-01-21, 08:14

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 25, 2021

EUR/USD
As we expected in last Friday's review, the euro settled in the 1.2132/77 range. The trading volumes were similar to those of the previous two days, that is, purchases were indeed closed, but not as intensely as we expected. Today this process may continue, which can be helped by the German IFO indices for January; the forecast for the business climate assumes a decrease in the index from 92.1 to 91.8, the index of current expectations may decrease from 91.3 to 90.6.

The daily chart shows the price met the resistance of the balance indicator line and the upper border of the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. The Marlin oscillator is turning to the downside. We are waiting for the price to leave the area under the lower border of the consolidation range and a subsequent attack on the MACD line in the 1.2070 area, getting the price to settle below it opens the 1.1915 target.

The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 26-01-21, 08:14

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 26, 2021

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound tested support at 1.3648. So far it has been unsuccessful and there are several technical reasons for this; the signal line of the Marlin oscillator met the lower line of its own wedge on the daily chart; on the four-hour chart, the MACD line is located at this price level.

But Marlin has penetrated the negative area in the four-hour chart, this is a sign that the price would overcome support at 1.3648, probably by today. The target for the decline is the 1.3480 level - the low on December 9 and September 1, 2020.

The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 27-01-21, 09:00

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for January 27, 2021

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped to 1.2108 lows yesterday before finding support again. It is quite possible that the European currency has managed to carve a higher low and bulls are now inclined to extend the counter trend rally towards 1.2250/70 in the near term. The single currency pair is seen to be trading at around 1.2163 levels at this point in writing and is expected to continue pushing higher towards 1.2250/70 levels before resuming lower again.

Immediate resistance remains fixed at 1.2350 mark, while interim support comes in around 1.2053 levels respectively. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 1.2350 and 1.2053 and the fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards 1.2250 levels respectively (not shown here). High probability remains for a bearish reversal, if prices manage to reach through 1.2250/70 zone. Bears are expected to be back in control until prices stay below 1.2350 highs.

On the flip side, even if prices break above 1.2350 in the near term, upside remains limited and a sharp bearish reversal could be underway. The larger wave structure also remains constructive for bears since the entire rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 seems to be complete. Probability remains high for a drop through 1.1250/1.1300 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement for the above rally.

Trading plan:
Remain short, add more @ 1.2250/70, stop @ 1.2500, target is open.
Good luck!

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 29-01-21, 08:01

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 29, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro slightly corrected after the hype of Wednesday's fall, supported by the MACD line on the daily chart. Yesterday's growth was offset by a decline in today's Asian session. It looks like the euro is going to attack the support of the MACD line at 1.2077. Getting the price to settle below this line will further strengthen the euro's decline to the target range of 1.1870-1.1915. Interim target of 1.1980.

The price is breaking the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Ahead of it there is a range of support at 1.2058/77, leaving it will become a signal to reach the nearest target of 1.1980.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 01-02-21, 08:32

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 1, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro traded in a limited range last Friday, as it did on Thursday, staying between the MACD indicator line (1.2080) and the reference level of 1.2177 on the daily chart. Here we see that at the moment the Marlin oscillator's indicator line is slightly increasing, which will make it possible for the price to continue consolidating for at least another day. The euro will accelerate its decline only when the price goes under the MACD line, below 1.2080. The first target is 1.1980, then the range is 1.1870-1.1915.

The price is also developing above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. The 1.2080 level coincides with the lows of January 28 and 20, which makes it more significant. The Marlin oscillator is growing, reaching the border of the territory of positive values. The sideways movement of the euro is likely to continue today.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 02-02-21, 08:28

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 2, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro finally decided to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line. The euro fell by 75 points. Now the 1.1980 target is open. The 1.1870-1.1915 range, which is the second target, is just below it. A weak risk of such a decline is seen in the initial stage when forming a price convergence with the Marlin oscillator. But this is still an alternative to today's scenario.

The situation is completely decreasing on the four-hour chart; the price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values, there is no convergence according to Marlin. Since the price surpassed yesterday's low (1.2056), we are waiting for it to move to the first target of 1.1980.

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