Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-01-18, 07:14

NZD/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is testing major resistance at 0.7188 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) and a strong reaction could occur at this level to push the price down to at least 0.7041 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). However, we are also in a bullish ascending channel and only a break of this channel would confirm further downside move.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 94% and also displays bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.7188. Stop loss is at 0.7280. Take profit is at 0.7041.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-01-18, 08:31

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Economic Confidence Data Due

Economic confidence and retail trade from euro area and factory orders from Germany are due on Monday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's factory orders data. Economists forecast orders to fall 0.2 percent on month in November, reversing a 0.5 percent rise in October.

In the meantime, industrial production data from Norway is due.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office releases industrial and construction output and foreign trade figures. Also, Hungary's industrial output and retail sales reports are due.

At 3.15 am ET, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office publishes inflation data.

At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data is due. The indicator is forecast to rise slightly to 31.2 in January from 31.1 in December.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission publishes Eurozone economic sentiment survey results. The index is seen at 114.7 in December versus 114.6 in November.

In the meantime, Eurostat releases retail sales data. Economists forecast euro area retail sales to grow 1.2 percent on month in November in contrast to a 1.1 percent fall in October.

News are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 09-01-18, 07:48

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 9, 2018

Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has declined nice and is now close to the first support near 1.6571. This support is expected to protect the downside for at least a corrective rally closer to 1.6800 and maybe even turn prices higher trough important resistance at 1.7025 for the next impulsive rally towards 1.7777.

R3: 1,6890
R2: 1.6800
R1: 1.6701
Pivot: 1.6630
S1: 1.6571
S2: 1.6447
S3: 1.6298

Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.6795. We will book half profit here at 1.6675 for a nice profit of 120 pips and we will move our stop lower from 1.7085 to 1.6835 on the rest of the position.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-01-18, 07:53

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2018

Wave summary:
The corrective rally from 133.09 spikes just above our upper target at 135.25 and should now be ready to turn lower again for a decline towards 131.11 before another corrective rally is expected towards 134.10.

Short-term a break below minor support at 134.79 will be a strong indicator that the corrective rally from 133.09 has completed and the expected decline to 131.11 has begun.

R3: 136.64
R2: 136.05
R1: 135.66
Pivot: 134.79
S1: 134.25
S2: 133.65
S3: 133.09

Trading recommendation:
We sold EUR at 134.74. We will place our stop at 136.75, but expect to move it lower soon. Upon a break below 134.79, we will move the stop lower to 135.75.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 17-01-18, 07:12

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 17, 2018

In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.97.
Resistance. 2: 110.76.
Resistance. 1: 110.54.
Support. 1: 110.27.
Support. 2: 110.06.
Support. 3: 109.84.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-01-18, 07:09

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 19, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2420.
Strong Resistance:1.2404.
Original Resistance: 1.2377.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2350.
Target Inner Area: 1.2286.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2222.
Original Support: 1.2195.
Strong Support: 1.2168.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2152.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**IFX Yvonne** · 24-01-18, 08:55

USD/CHF right on major support, prepare for a bounce

The price is now testing major support at 0.9569 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) and we expect a bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 0.9699 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.7% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
Buy above 0.9569. Stop loss at 0.9501.
Take profit at 0.9699.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 26-01-18, 07:13

NZD/USD right on major support, time to go long

The price is testing major support at 0.7312 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, long-term ascending support, bullish price action) and a bounce could occur at this level to push the price up to at least 0.7436 resistance (major swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension). RSI (55) sees a long-term ascending support line since November 2017 hold up our bullish momentum really well. We're starting to see a possible break of this long-term support line but our major support remains at 51% and only a clean break of that level would be a precursor that a drop is coming. Buy above 0.7312. Stop loss at 0.7256. Take profit at 0.7436.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 30-01-18, 07:14

Gold forming a cup and handle reversal, prepare for a strong drop!

Gold has formed a really strong reversal of a cup and handle formation. We look to sell below major resistance at 1344 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, cup and handle breakout level) where a strong drop is expected to push the price down to at least 1325 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing descending resistance hold it down really well which corresponds to the drop we're expecting.

Sell below 1344. Stop loss at 1353. Take profit at 1325.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

**IFX Yvonne** · 31-01-18, 10:45

NZD/USD starting to show signs of a bounce, remain bullish

The price continues to test our buying area and ascending channel support. We think that it might be doing a fake breakout now because RSI has not broken below 50% yet. We remain bullish above major support at 0.7312 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, long-term ascending support, bullish price action) for the price to continue its push up to at least 0.7436 resistance (major swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension).

RSI (55) major support remains at 50% and only a clean break of that level would be a precursor that a drop is coming.

Buy above 0.7312. Stop loss at 0.7256. Take profit at 0.7436.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 02-02-18, 05:05

The buyers of the euro are ready

Despite weak performance in the manufacturing sector, the European currency continues to make attempts to grow against the US dollar. It is maintaining an upward price channel.

It was only in Italy where there was an increase in the index of production while in France and Germany, the similar index slowed slightly.

According to the report of the statics agency, the index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in Italy for the month of January this year rose to 59.0 points, compared to 57.4 points in December last year. Economists predicted the index at the level of 57.3 points.

In France, there is a marked decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. According to the report, the index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in January fell to 58.4 points against the December index of 58.8 points. Economists and market participants did expect a decline to the level of 58.1 points.

In Germany, the index of supply managers also slowed its growth. According to the data, PMI for Germany's manufacturing sector in January fell to 61.1 points against 63.3 points in December 2017. Economists had expected the index to fall to the level of 61.2 points.

If we talk about the euro area as a whole, then there is also a slight decline. According to the statistics agency, the index of supply managers PMI for the production area of the eurozone in January dropped to 59.6 points, compared to 60.6 points in December. The data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

It is important to note that finding the index above the level of 50 points indicates an increase in activity.

The current data that's at a rather slight decline in indicators at the beginning of this year will not likely affect the data on GDP seriously in the first quarter of 2018, which is confirmed by the market reaction to the data.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, so far the situation is developing in favor of buyers as it managed to keep the trade in an upward price channel. The lower limit of this level is at the January 30 low. The breakthrough of resistance at the level of 1.2470 opens up good prospects for the EURUSD pair for further growth of the trading instrument in the area of annual maximums at 1.2540.

A similar index that's already in the UK, also did not put pressure on the British pound, even despite its slowdown to a 6-month low.

According to a report by research company IHS Markit Ltd., the index of supply managers for the UK manufacturing sector in January was 55.3 points compared to 56.2 points in December. The value of the index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 56.5 points.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 05-02-18, 07:01

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 05, 2018

The pair is struggling to consolidate the price action above the resistance level of 1.4280 and it seems that the 200 SMA could act, once again, as a dynamic support. If that happens, GBP/USD could resume the overall bullish bias and can skyrocket towards the 1.4393 level. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, calling for a leg lower.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4280 / 1.4393
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4060 / 1.3937

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4280, take profit is at 1.4393 and stop loss is at 1.4168.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 07-02-18, 06:55

The deficit of foreign trade in the US at record highs

Despite the good data for Germany, which came out in the morning, demand for the US dollar remained.

According to the report of the German Ministry of Economics, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany in December last year grew due to strong demand from abroad. Thus, the total volume of production orders in December 2017 increased by 3.8% compared with the previous month, while economists expected that the growth in December will be 0.6%.

As I noted above, the leaders were export orders, which grew by 5.9%, while internal orders increased by only 0.7% compared to the previous month.

The US dollar has ignored the data on the next wave of growth of foreign trade deficit in the US, which peaked in nine years. This happened as a result of growth in imports due to strong consumer demand.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the foreign trade deficit in December 2017 increased by 5.3% compared to the previous month and amounted to 53.12 billion US dollars. Economists had expected a deficit of $52.0 billion.

Import to the US grew by 2.5% to $ 256.5 billion. The increase in imports of goods during the holiday season had a negative impact on the indicator. There was also an increase in imports of cars and capital goods. Export grew by only 1.8% to $ 203.4 billion.

Speech by Fed official Bullard was generally ignored by the market.

Fed President St. Louis James Bullard said today that the relationship between the employment market and inflation has disrupted, and inflation expectations have risen. First of all, he was referring to the latest report of the US Department of Labor, which pointed to a serious increase in labor forces and an increase in wages, which would definitely spur inflation in early 2018, giving it a serious upward momentum along with economic growth.

Bullard also noted that the tax bill will promote investment growth, but the monetary policy is currently close to neutral and does not need to be adjusted.

It is worth paying attention to the fact that his opinion is at odds with the recent statements of his colleagues, in which it was clearly indicated that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

The deficit of Canada's foreign trade in December grew due to the fact that imports prevailed over exports, which slowed significantly compared to the previous month.

According to the Bureau of Statistics of Canada, the foreign trade deficit in December 2018 increased by 3.19 billion Canadian dollars. Economists forecast a deficit of C$ 2.25 billion in December. Imports in December rose by 1.5%, to a record level of 49.70 billion Canadian dollars, while exports increased by 0.6%, to 46.51 billion Canadian dollars.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 08-02-18, 06:59

Daily analysis of USDX for February 08, 2018

The index managed to do a rebound above the 200 SMA and gathered momentum towards the 90.30 level. A higher continuation is expected once USDX does a break above 90.63. To the downside, the 200 SMA continues to provide dynamic support but if it gives up, the bearish side could get again another breath.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75 H1
chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 89.36, take profit is at 87.88 and stop loss is at 90.81.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 09-02-18, 06:49

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 09, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian Industrial Production m/m and French Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2314.
Strong Resistance:1.2307.
Original Resistance: 1.2295.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2283.
Target Inner Area: 1.2254.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2225.
Original Support: 1.2213.
Strong Support: 1.2201.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2194.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 13-02-18, 07:43

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 13, 2018

Wave summary:
The rally from 1.6854 is not yet convincing, but if support at 1.6897 is able to protect the downside for a new rally above minor resistance at 1.7023 the correction in wave ii should be complete and wave iii developing for a rally to and above resistance at 1.7479 on the way higher to 1.7777.

A break below 1.6897 will risk a new decline to 1.6853 and maybe even closer to 1.6830 before wave ii is complete.
R3: 1.7045
R2: 1.7023
R1: 1.6966
Pivot: 1.6897
S1: 1.6878
S2: 1.6853
S3: 1.6830

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6977 with our stop placed at 1.6845.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 20-02-18, 08:11

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 20, 2018

Wave summary:
A break above the minor resistance at 1.6865 will indicate that the wave ii has completed and the wave iii higher to 1.7470 and 1.7777 is developing.

As long as the minor resistance at 1.6865 is able to cap the upside as long must we allow for a final spike lower to 1.6740 before completing the wave ii.
R3: 169.78
R2: 1.6860
R1: 1.6825
Pivot: 1.6770
S1: 1.6740
S2: 1.6681
S3: 1.6630

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6790 with stop placed at 1.6690.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 21-02-18, 08:07

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 21, 2018

Our first downside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is still expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is capped by a bearish trend line since February 16, which confirmed a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To conclude, below 0.7375, look for a new drop with targets at 0.7305 and 0.7280 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7410, 0.7440, and 0.7485.
Support levels: 0.7335, 0.7295, and 0.7330.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-02-18, 06:51

Weak data on the euro area is weighing on the euro

Weak data, including the preliminary, in the production and services sectors of the euro area put pressure on the European currency in the first half of the day. However, there was no significant sale of risky assets. This again indicates that most traders will focus on the Federal Reserve's protocols today.

The British pound collapsed against the US dollar after the release of a weak report on the UK labor market, where there was a significant surge in the number of unemployed.

In Germany, which is the flagship of the European economy, the growth rates of the manufacturing and services sectors have slowed. According to IHS Markit, the purchasing managers' index for the German services sector in February 2018 dropped to 55.3 points versus 57.3 points in January with economists expecting the February value to be at 57.0 points. The PMI for the manufacturing sector fell to 60.3 points from 61.1 points in January.

The preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in France also fell in February, reaching 56.1 points compared to 58.4 points in January. Economists had expected a less significant decline, to a level of 58.1 points.

The preliminary index of supply managers for the services sector in France dropped to 57.9 points in February against 59.2 points in January this year. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged at 59.2 points.

As a result business activity in general for the euro area slowed in February.

According to the report of IHS Markit, the composite index of supply managers of the eurozone in February fell to 57.5 points from 58.8 points in January. It is important to note that a value of above 50 in the index indicates an increase in activity. Economists also expected the decline but only to 58.5 points.

The technical picture in the EURUSD pair remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast. In the event of a decline in the euro after the publication of the Fed's protocols, opening long positions is best after the major support levels of 1.2240 and 1.2200 have been updated.

The British pound, as noted above, fell sharply against the US dollar after it became known that unemployment in the UK in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of unemployed in the UK increased by 46,000 from October to December 2017. The unemployment rate was at 4.4% while economists expected unemployment to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 27-02-18, 08:20

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 27, 2018

Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has rallied nicely and is headed towards the first more substantial resistance near 1.7100. Once this resistance is cleared, the way higher to 1.7470 and 1.7777 is open.

Support is now seen at 1.6850, and the important support is seen at 1.6780.

R3: 1.7094
R2: 1.6990
R1: 1.6937
Pivot: 1.6887
S1: 1.6850
S2: 1.6780
S3: 1.6723

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6790, and we will move our stop higher to 1.6775.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.