Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 30-04-15, 09:26

Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015

EUR/USD EURO:The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.6% in March 2015 from 4.0% in February 2015. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from January 2015 to March 2015 increased to 4.1%, from 3.8% in the period from December 2014 to February 2015. The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.4% in April 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office also reported that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% on March 2015. Upcoming data: The eurozone macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. Today, traders eye German retail sales data, French consumer spending, Spanish flash CPI on Y/Y, Spanish flash GDP q/q, Germany unemployment change, CPI flash estimate y/y, core CPI flash estimate y/y, and unemployment changes. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. We expect positive data from Germany and Spanish. The euro CPI and unemployment are likely to show positive readings as well. Technical view: The pair has been extending its bullish footprints for five consecutive days. The pair was rejected at 161.8 FE, 1.1191 in the daily chart. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.1188 but closed at 1.1128. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The euro is trading at 1.1115 against USD compared to Wednesday's close price of 1.1128. The pair managed to give a break on the upside in the strong supply zone around 1.1055 and closed above that. The immediate resistance was found at 1.1250 20Wsma. We expect the near-term cap between 1.1250 and 1.1315. As of now, the pair gained 380 pips with our correction. In case the price breaches above 1.1250 2Dsma, another strong resistance zone will be found at 1.1300 and 1.1315 10Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 100 to 150 pips on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1250 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling. Intraday view:Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1191 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.1250. Intraday support is found at 1.1110 and 1.1067. Today and tomorrow's trading pattern is framed between 1.1030 and 1.1250. Either side break will provide further room to trade aggressively. The previous supply zone at 1.1030 and 1.1055 is currently acting as a support zone. For risky traders we recommend selling with sl 1.1129 for targets at 1.1070 and 1.1050. Panic will be triggered below 1.1030. In case German and European data print positive readings, we will recommend buying above 1.1130 with targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230 whereas 1.1250 is the crucial trend-change level on a weekly closing basis. Trade: Selling with sl 1.1129 Buying above 1.1130

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 05-05-15, 09:30

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 05, 2015

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. The US will publish some macroeconomic reports such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and Trade Balance. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 120.78. Resistance. 2: 120.55. Resistance. 1: 120.31. Support. 1: 120.02. Support. 2: 119.79. Support. 3: 119.54.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 06-05-15, 09:44

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 06, 2015

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some macroeconomic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Yellen Speech, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 120.59.
Resistance. 2: 120.36.
Resistance. 1: 120.12.
Support. 1: 119.84.
Support. 2: 119.61.
Support. 3: 119.36.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 11-05-15, 09:27

Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for May 11, 2015

The new week starts with a big event, the Eurogroup's meeting. The Finance Minister of Germany expected difficulties in reaching an agreement on Greece within today's Eurogroup's meeting. But the Greek government expects progress in negotiation with Greece lenders. After today's big event, major economic data fall on Wednesday. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q, French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts due. Wednesday is another big data for this pair. We expect the German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France are likely to be stagnant. Technical view:The pair was unchanged over the previous week. The pair has been developing the technical bullish signs for 4 consecutive weeks. The divergence between the ECB and Fed favors the long-term bearish view for this pair. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma after 52 weeks. Last week, the pair rejected at weekly parallel resistance of 1.3997 and made a high at 1.3992. The pair fell and closed below 100Dema& 100Dsma.On Friday's session, the pair rejected exactly at 100Dsma. Until the pair closes below 1.1300 100Dsma, bulls will be losing the grip. The parallel support is found at 1.1175; below this 1.1145 is another minor support. The strong bullish support base is found at 1.1050. Until the pair closes above 1.1030, bullish view remains in play. The near term will be capped, in case the price closes below 1.1050. The lower low formation will be launched in case the event takes place. The daily chart indicates the weekly trading pattern framed between 1.1300 and 1.1050. Further bullish will re-ignite in case the price closes above 1.1300. The real panic will be triggered below 1.1030 towards 1.0890. In case the price closes above 1.1300, it can skyrocket towards 1.1397 and 1.1475, whereas 1.1392 is median resistance. Negative divergence has been developing in the daily chart. Intraday view: In the hourly and four-hour chart, the price was closed and trading below the hourly moving averages 34hrsma. In the H1 chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.1225, until the price remains below 34hrsma, bearish view is likely to move towards 1.1150, 1.1110, and 1.1100. We expect 1.1050 and 1.1030 as well in a day or two. Bulls are strengthening looms above 1.1230 with minor upside possibility at 1.1250, 1.1275, and 1.1300. The real strength is seen only above 1.1300 towards 1.350, a previous high of 1.1392 and 1.1475. Trade: Selling below 1.1175 buying above 1.1230

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 16-05-15, 06:36

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations

Overview: On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established. Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established. As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5. Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when the further bearish pullback occurs. On the other hand, the current price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 is a critical resistance zone to be watched for signs of bearish reversal and a possible sell entry if enough bearish pressure is applied.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 18-05-15, 09:03

EUR/USD Rebound For June 01 (Weekly Strategy)

Technical summary: We think the best way to count the price action since the top of 1.5247 is that an expanded flat is unfolding. In this case one final decline to just below 1.4913 should be seen before the next strong rally higher. In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.5221 and more importantly a break below 1.5104 will confirm the decline to the territory below 1.4913 before the next impulsive rally is expected. That means we have to be aware that there is a small risk that the correction in wave (ii) ended with a wave c failure at 1.4970 and the next impulsive rally is already unfolding for a continuation higher towards at least 1.6335. Trading recommendation: We will wait for a EUR-buying opportunity around 1.4913.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-05-15, 09:18

EUR/USD Wave Analysis. Weekly Survey

Major economic data is due for release today. German Zew economic sentiment, Zew economic sentiment and final CPI y/y are due today. The German Zew economic sentiment has been disappointing thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. Greek issue remains the main focus of attention in the near term. At yesterday's session, the USD changed the direction and was trading higher against most major pears. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback managed to get away from lows. Technical view:The pair started the new week with losses after five consecutive profitable weeks. We have already said the pair is likely to make the near-term top between 1.1480 and 1.1535. The pair rejected at 1.1467 and fell by 160 pips. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Dema 1.1300. We recommended selling below 1.1390 with a target at 1.1300. The pair made a low exactly at our targets. At today's Asian session, the pair was trading above the support level. Weekly support is found at 1.1130 20Wsma. In case the price closes below 1.1300, bears will aim at 20Wsma and the level of 1.1050 later. The 100Dsma is found at 1.1178. We expect fresh selling below 1.1300 towards 1.1200 and 1.1178 in the least case 1.1130 likely. Today we expect negative data on the euro. Intraday support is found at 1.1300, 1.1210, and 1.1190. Resistance is seen at 1.1326, 1.1360, and 1.1390. Use every rise to sell with sl 1.1390 and safe sell will trigger below 1.1300 with targets at 1.1210 and 1.1190.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 20-05-15, 09:30

AUDNZD long term downtrend could continue

Looking at the long-term picture based on the daily time frame, AUD/NZD got quite volatile over the last year. While it has been consistently rising since the beginning of 2014, after reaching the top at 1.1298 it felt sharply. The pair lost over 1200 points in 5 months. The uptrend breakout allowed applying Fibonacci in order to find support/resistance and potential targets. The most significant fact is a break below the downside target, S3 (1.0344), which assumes a continuation of a long-term decline. In addition, AUD/NZD is currently rejecting the 50% Fibs, the point of the trend-line breakout, and it looks like a strong resistance has been established around the R1 (1.0820) area. Consider selling AUD/NZD around the current levels. A target is seen at S2 (1.0570), the most appropriate area because it was acting as support as well as resistance previously. A break above 1.0890, which was a high back on May 13, could send the price higher to test the uptrend as resistance this time. Support: 1.0707, 1.0569, 1.0344 Resistance: 1.0820, 1.0933, 1.1289

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 21-05-15, 09:15

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for June 5, 2012

In April 2015, the index of producer prices for German industrial products fell by 1.5% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March 2015, the annual rate of change was �.7%. The overall index rose by 0.1% in April 2015 (+0.1% in March and February 2015) compared with the preceding month. Given a series of macroeconomic data today is understandably a busy day on the markets. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. The ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due. The French and German flash manufacturing and services PMI are due. The European flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI are due. Today, we expect the eurozone, Germany and French to deliver negative readings. Technical view: The pair fell into the strong support zone. We can call it as make-or-break zone. Ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting, the pair has been trading in a very tight range between 1.1146 and 1.1060. The strong support zone is found at 1.1050. In the four-hour, the RSI is oversold. Ahead of major events, we expect wild moves at the intraday levels not to work out. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1185 and support is found at 1.0930. From May 14, we have been advising that the pair is likely to retest the support between 1.1100 and 1.1050. The pair exactly returned from the given resistance zone 1.1480 and 1.1535, fell by 400 pips. Until the pair closes below 1.1290 rounded to 1.1300, use every rise to sell following the trend.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-05-15, 09:05

EUR/NZD long-term trend still down

Clearly EUR/NZD established a long-term downtrend. Before this, EUR/NZD failed to break above R2 (1.57 area) that would confirm a new higher high. While every new low being lower as well as every new high being lower, bears should be dominating in the mid-term future. With two different downtrend trendlines applied to the chart, a strong resistance area has come into play. This is R1 level (1.54), which is also a round number and a psychological barrier. Early this week, both trendlines have been rejected suggesting that down trend might continue. Now, it seems wise to start looking for sell opportunities on pullbacks as the market could be too low to enter the short trade at this point. Target either S2 (1.4820) or S3 (1.4636) support levels. Support: 1.5039, 1.4819, 1.4636 Resistance: 1.5398, 1.5679

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 26-05-15, 09:14

Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for May 26, 2015

All time intervals favor bears. Bulls' last hope is at 1.3680. The 50Msma is found at 1.3688, 200Wsma is seen at 1.3684. April's low is made at 1.3685. The euro is depressed by the ECB's QE and Greek saga. In the monthly and weekly charts, lower high formation is taking place. We can observe multi lows between 1.3735 and 1.3685 in the daily chart. Lower lows formation has been extending in the daily chart as well. The pair closes below near and medium-term moving averages. Early at today's Asian session, the cross has rejected at 50Dsma. The nearest support is found at 1.4000. Ideal selling is available below 1.4000 with targets at 1.3980, 1.3950, and 1.3920 initially. Risky traders can use sl 1.4045 and sell at the current level of 1.4029. Safe selling is available below 1.3980. Until the cross closes below 1.4205, bears will aim at 1.3920, 1.3810, and 1.3750.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 27-05-15, 08:48

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 27, 2015

Today is understandably a quiet day for the euro because of lack of macroeconomic data. Traders shifted the focus to the US. The US housing data added extra power to the USD bulls. USD traded higher against majors. New homes purchases in the US expanded in April. The Federal Reserve's rate hike decision depends on data release. The CB consumer confidence increased moderately in May. The Index stands at 95.4 now, up from 94.3 in April. Yesterday's positive US data raised hopes on Fed's interest rate hike. The pair has been falling for 3 days. After the liquidly returns, the pair posts a big drop at yesterday's session. In seven trading session, the pair posted 4 falling days. This shows the immense selling pressure on the euro takes place. The euro bulls lost the last hope at 1.0950 when the price closed below that. We initially advised selling with sl 1.1535, 1.1130 later, and again below 1.0940, low was made at 1.0863. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading higher against USD. Ahead of Germany Gfk consumer climate data, the euro is trading higher. We expect negative readings. Use rises to sell again for the targets at 1.0820 and 1.0800 initially. On May 25, we advised selling with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0550 later. Trade: Selling below 1.0850.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 28-05-15, 08:57

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 28, 201

Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading lower around the levels of 1.4550/60 for now as expected. The pair might still want to test the level of 1.4650, the upper boundary of recent trading range, before reversing lower. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further positions on higher levels. Immediate support is seen at rhe level of 1.4550 followed by 1.4400/1.4350, 1.4150, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4650 (range) followed by 1.4700, 1.4850/1.4900, and higher respectively. Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop at 1.4760, a target is open.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 29-05-15, 08:35

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 29, 2015

According to the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has been trading between 0.9556 and 0.9374. The level of 0.9556 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point is coinciding with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. In consequence, sell below 0.9556 in the short term with the first target at 0.9374 in order to test support 1. If the trend is able to break the support 1 at 0.7374; then it might resume to 0.9287 with a view to form the double bottom. Hence, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 0.9556 and continue towards the last bearish wave at 0.9287. However, the best location for placing your stop loss should be set at 0.9575 because the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 02-06-15, 09:27

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 02, 2015

The pound hit a fresh four-week low against USD after the US manufacturing data release. The US dollar dominated against major pairs at yesterday's session. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS PMI ticked higher to 52.0 in May, up from a revised reading of 51.8 in April (previously reported as 51.9). The UK manufacturing sector showed further modest expansions of both output and new orders in May. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the 29th consecutive month. The overall economy grew for the 72nd consecutive month. Upcoming event: Today, traders eye construction PMI. The UK construction sector has been struggling for a while, led by housing market. Technical analysis: The cable held the 20Wsma and was trading above. The weekly support was found at 1.5150 and 1.5089. At yesterday's session, the cable touched the 100Dsma and 50Dsma junction placed at 1.5165. We expect a technical bounce with a target at 1.5300 in a day or two, later 1.5525 in the extreme case. We advised to buy between 1.5150 and 1.5100 with sl 1.5089. The same theme we still recommend this week as well. In the H1 chart, lower lows and lower highs are expanding. The price has been consolidating at 1.5200 for 8-hours. As we explained earlier, technical bounce likely. For today's session risky buying is available with sl 1.5160 and targets at 1.5240, 1.5260, and 1.5300 CMP 1.5200. Safe buying will trigger above 1.5220. Intraday support is found at 1.5160 and 1.5130. Positional buying is advised with small quantity. Bulls are likely to regain strength above 1.5300 with targets at 1.5340, 1.5380, and 1.5420. In case dip takes place buyers available between 1.5130 and 1.5100.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 03-06-15, 09:21

Daily analysis of USDX for June 03, 2015

The US Dollat Index is testing the support level of 95.74 now. If it does a breakout in that zone, the USDX will fall to the level of 94.66. Anyway, we think this corrective move is a short-term bearish bias, because the USDX aims at the upside and the immediate resistance is seen around the level of 96.97.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 24-06-15, 09:10

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 24, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on Belgian NBB Business Climate is due.The US will release data on Crude Oil Inventories, Final GDP Price Index q/q, anf Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1227.
Strong Resistance:1.1221.
Original Resistance: 1.1210.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1199.
Target Inner Area: 1.1173.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1148.
Original Support: 1.1136.
Strong Support: 1.1126.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1120.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 25-06-15, 09:01

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 25, 2015

GBP/USD was moving in a bearish trend during yesterday's session as we can see on daily chart. Now it's looking for an opportunity to fall to the 200 SMA. Anyway, if that happens, GBP/USD will remain bullish in our mid-term outlook as long as it stays above that moving average. However, if the pair does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5775, it will reach the level of 1.5898.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 26-06-15, 09:20

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 25, 2015

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.5% to 13.26, S&P 500 closed 0.74% lower at 2,108.58 overnight) on renewed worries over Greece's debt crisis. After a list of economic measures, Greece said it was willing to undertake in exchange for financial aid, was rejected. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.7 bps to 2.372% Wednesday) and Japan's exports. But USD sentiment is soothed as the US Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from previous estimate of -0.7%. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is rising from oversold levels but the MACD is bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 125. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.95. The pivot point is at 124.15.

Resistance levels: 124.60 125 125.45
Support levels: 122.30 122.95 122.55

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 29-06-15, 08:38

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 29, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on the Spanish Flash CPI y/y and German Prelim CPI m/m is due. The US will release economic data on the Pending Home Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1028.
Strong Resistance:1.1022.
Original Resistance: 1.1011.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1000.
Target Inner Area: 1.0975.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0950.
Original Support: 1.0939.
Strong Support: 1.0928.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0922.

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