Instaforex Analysis

**InstaForex Gertrude** · 06-12-23, 08:41

XAU/USD H4 I Bullish Bounce?

The XAU/USD chart suggests the potential for a bullish bounce, with significant support and resistance levels at play.

Support Levels:
At 2009.00, the 1st support is characterized as "An Overlap support." This level signifies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, potentially facilitating a bounce. Similarly, the 2nd support at 1991.00 is also identified as "An Overlap support," reinforcing its potential significance in providing support to the price.

Resistance Levels:
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 2034.68 is labeled as "An Overlap resistance." This level represents a notable barrier to further upward price movement and warrants attention from traders. Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 2051.18 is characterized by "Pullback resistance," further emphasizing its role as a significant resistance zone.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 07-12-23, 06:16

USD/JPY Day I Bearish continuation expected?

The USD/JPY chart is currently indicating the potential for a bearish breakout, with significant support and resistance levels at play.

Support Levels:
At 144869.00, the 1st support is characterized as "An Overlap support." This level signifies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, potentially preventing further downward movement. Additionally, the 2nd support at 141.98 is identified as "An Overlap support," further reinforcing its potential significance in providing support to the price.

Resistance Levels:
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 148.28 is labeled as "An Overlap resistance." This level represents a notable barrier to further upward price movement and warrants attention from traders.

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**IFX Yvonne** · 08-12-23, 14:58

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 8, 2023

Yesterday, the Australian dollar, with overlaps, covered the entire range of levels 0.6547-0.6612. It sharply grew when the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned from the zero line.

According to technical rules, the pair can rise further by surpassing the previous day's high (0.6623), but since the US will release important data today, there may be a false breakout above 0.6623.

According to technical rules, the pair can rise further by surpassing the previous day's high (0.6623), but since the US will release important data today, there may be a false breakout above 0.6623.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating just before the resistance level of 0.6612. The MACD line is slightly above it, precisely at yesterday's high. Consolidating above it will signal further growth. The Marlin oscillator is already in the uptrend territory. We are waiting for the resolution of the situation with the release of the US data.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 11-12-23, 06:10

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2023

EUR/USD
Friday's U.S. labor data turned out better than expected. The result was reflected in a decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.9% to 3.7%. The balance indicator line stopped the initial downward movement in response to the news. This was evidently influenced by the risk appetite, as the S&P 500 stock index grew by 0.41%. It is very close to continuing its growth in the medium-term, and to achieve this, the quote needs to surpass the year's high of 4612 (July 27), paving the way for the pair to reach the record target of 4816 (January 2022).

From this perspective, the euro's growth is limited to the time when the S&P 500 continues to rise. Synchronization with this timeframe gives the first serious target level of 1.1076 – the upper band of the descending price hyperchannel, coinciding with the peak on April 14 (December 21-22).

On the 4-hour chart, a double convergence has formed, which could provide the initial momentum in order for the price to rise further so it can consolidate above 1.0825. This would mean settling above the nearest embedded line of the price channel, marked on the daily chart. Subsequent consolidation above the MACD line (1.0850) would mean overcoming the Fibonacci ray on the daily chart and pave the way for the pair to reach the target level of 1.0905. Considering the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the euro's growth could be quite strong.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 12-12-23, 06:22

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 12, 2023

EUR/USD
In the previous review, we tied the rise of counter-dollar currencies to the development of risk sentiment in the broader market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 stock index surpassed the nearest peak from July 27 (4612), and now it has a good target at the level of 4818, which is a record high (January 2022). Oil has risen slightly. Yields on US government bonds have not changed for the third day in anticipation of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated above the level of 1.0757. The Marlin oscillator is slowly turning upward. If there are no significant events that will hinder the euro's way, the price will continue to rise towards the target level of 1.0825.

A potential bullish breakout, in continuation of the decline from November 29, will take place if the price surpasses the support of the MACD line in the area of 1.0703. The first bearish target will be 1.0632. Exchange Rates 12.12.2023 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating symbolically above the support of 1.0757. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after the previous convergence, entered the uptrend territory. Overcoming the level of 1.0825 will support the uptrend, as resistance is strengthened by the approaching MACD line.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 13-12-23, 09:29

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 13, 2023

EUR/USD
So, yesterday's US inflation data turned out to be positive for the euro. The core CPI for November remained at the previous 4.0% YoY, while the CPI decreased from 3.2% YoY to 3.1% YoY. Such an optimistic trend of decreasing inflation could be reflected in today's dot plot projections on interest rates by FOMC members.

Today, the euro may surpass yesterday's high and continue to rise.

Yesterday, the upper shadow reached the target level of 1.0825. According to the main scenario, we expect a breakout and the euro to rise towards 1.0905. The second target is 1.0946.

On the 4-hour chart, the price reached the MACD indicator line and retraced slightly downwards. The price settled above the balance line indicator, and the Marlin oscillator settled in the uptrend territory. If the price consolidates above 1.0825, it will mean consolidation above the MACD line. We expect the euro to continue rising according to the main plan.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 14-12-23, 07:43

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 14, 2023

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar sharply strengthened after yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting – up 100 pips compared to the euro's 80-pip rise. In today's Asian session, the pair continued to rise at an even greater speed, and has already surpassed the target level of 0.6693. With that said, we now expect the uptrend to move forward towards the target levels of 0.6775 and 0.6815 (the average value of the peaks in April and May).

A slight move of the Marlin oscillator's signal line into negative territory (red arrow) is now considered a false move, afterwards we witnessed movement into the overbought territory.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the level of 0.6693. If it successfully manages to consolidate, this would automatically support the pair's rise to 0.6775.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 15-12-23, 06:13

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 15, 2023

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair continues to support the dollar's broad weakness. Yesterday, the yen strengthened by 97 pips, and the lower shadow of the daily candle tested the target support at 141.23. During the correction, the price approached the resistance level at 142.70 by this morning.

This level is strong, so we do not believe that there is a reason for the price to overcome it. After completing the correction, a consolidation could form before the level for 1-2 days. After that, we expect a new test of support at 141.23 and further down to 140.35, coinciding with the embedded line of the price channel.

On the 4-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator formed a weak convergence. However, the oscillator quickly moved upward, so it may briefly linger at elevated values before turning downward.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 18-12-23, 07:34

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 18, 2023

EUR/USD
Friday's correction turned out to be quite intense and balancing on the verge of a trend change, as the price managed to overcome the strong support at 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator returned to negative territory. Now, if the current day closes below the price channel line, below the level of 1.0905, the price could attack the lower Fibonacci ray and support at 1.0825.

However, the euro still has a chance to rise. In order to do so, the current daily candle should stay above the level of 1.0905, which will lead the Marlin oscillator to rise in the positive territory. Surpassing the 1.0946 mark will reopen the target of 1.1033 and then 1.1076.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the corrective phase was just over 38.2%. The Marlin oscillator has not left the growth territory. There is a good chance that the price will turn from these levels. The uptrend remains intact, and in order to change it, the price needs to consolidate below 1.0825 and below the MACD line.

Such a deep correction only occurred with the euro. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, Asia-Pacific currencies spent the day in consolidation, and this morning, the New Zealand dollar continues to rise. This means that on Friday, the euro qualitatively reacted to the weak eurozone PMI data. But today, the IFO indices for Germany for December will be released, and they are expected to increase. In particular, the value is expected to rise from 89.4 to 89.5. This supports the main scenario.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 19-12-23, 07:47

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 19, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro closed with a white candle above the level of 1.0905, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator quickly returned to the bullish territory. Although this isn't a signal that the pair will rise to the level of 1.1033, it removes the risk of a decline to 1.0825.

Perhaps the bulls still do not have enough long positions to overcome 1.0946, then we will see the price consolidating in the range of 1.0905/46. On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the level of 1.0905 and above the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level.

The Marlin oscillator is misleading the bulls, showing an intention to move below the neutral zero line. At the same time, this is a sign of an upcoming correction in the range of 1.0905/46. A consolidation below the lower band of the range will sharply increase the risks of a decline.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 20-12-23, 07:43

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 20, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro did not linger in the range of 1.0905/46, broke out of it and gained 57 pips on Tuesday. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory, and the price can continue to move to the nearest target level of 1.1033 and rise to the upper band of the price channel, coinciding with the target level of 1.1076 (the peak of April 14).

Obviously, the pre-New Year rally is in full swing, if we count the stock market since October 30th. The Dow Jones stock index sets a new record every day. The S&P 500 is slightly behind. Yesterday, oil rose by 1.80%, and copper rose by 1.36%. The crisis, along with the euro's decline, is expected in the new year.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is progressing above the indicator lines, which are rising, and the Marlin oscillator has settled and is progressing in the uptrend territory. The possible correction is supported by the level of 1.0946, but overall, we expect the pair to rise to the specified target levels.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 22-12-23, 06:17

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 22, 2023

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 71 pips and approached the target level of 0.6815, and the upper band of the local price channel.

The Marlin oscillator has been behaving nervously recently, but a break above 0.6830 opens the way for further growth with the initial target of 0.6897 - towards the peak of July 13 with an intermediate level of 0.6872.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has stabilized in the uptrend territory. We are waiting for progress on this growth.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 25-12-23, 14:00

Analysis of Gold for December 25, 2023 - Potential for the downside movement

Technical analysis:

Gold has been trading downside in the background but I found that supply overcame demand, which is good sign for the further downside movement.

Due to the rejection of the resistance level in the background and supply present, I see potential for the further drop towards lower references.
Downside objectives are set at $2.032 and $2.017

RSI oscillator is showing downside rotation toward 50 level, which is sign od indecision and the breakout of the rising lows.

Key resistance is set at $1.270

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 26-12-23, 05:57

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 26, 2023

EUR/USD
So far, the euro has reached the first bullish target at 1.1033. Now, the target is 1.1076 (the peak of April 14) at the intersection with the upper band of the price channel. Surpassing this level will open up the target of 1.1150 (the July 27 high). But first, the price needs to consolidate above 1.1033.

Today, the United States will release housing price data. The October estimate suggests a growth of 0.5%, and the composite S&P/CS-20 index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, is expected to rise to 5.0% YoY from the previous 3.9% YoY. Such data may hinder the euro's growth. On the other hand, in thin markets, movements can be unpredictable depending on the goals of major players, and these goals were bullish just a week ago.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned away from the upper band of the wedge, creating a risk of a pullback to the lower band of the wedge and an upward breakout of the line. Based on this scenario, the price may spend the entire day below the resistance of 1.1033 and only resume its upward movement tomorrow.

On the four-hour chart, the price is starting to consolidate before the reached level, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory. Price development is occurring above the balance and MACD indicator lines. An uptrend in place.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 27-12-23, 06:37

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 27, 2023

EUR/USD
The pre-New Year rally continues; S&P 500 up 0.42%, the euro up by 28 points, oil up by 1.99%, and gold up by 0.52%. The euro has surpassed the target resistance at 1.1033, and today, it opened above this level. Now the pair has one final leap to move towards 1.1076, where we might see profit-taking for the entire pre-New Year movement.

There is also room for growth in the stock market; the S&P 500 index is 0.9% away from the record high, and 2.28% away from the 4883 target along the price channel line (see the review from December 25).

On the 4-hour chart, the price has managed to consolidate above 1.1033.

Although the Marlin oscillator is in the positive territory, it feels weak, formally consolidating above the zero line. A delay in the price's growth may push the oscillator to move into negative territory. The least we can do for today is to close the day above yesterday's closing price.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 28-12-23, 06:01

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Thursday December 28, 2023

Although currently Gold commodity assest still look strengthening where this is confirmed by the price movement which is above its Moving Average, but with the appearance of the Rising Wedge pattern and the deviation between price movement with Awesome Oscillator indicator, then in the near future, although gold will try to reach the level area of 2093.24-2107.79 but there is a potential for gold to fall down to its weakening up to the level of 2004.27, but this weakness potential will become invalid if the strengthen of gold still continue until it breaks above the level 2143.74.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 29-12-23, 06:45

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 29, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro failed to settle above the level of 1.1076 and, with below-average volumes, returned below it. Reduced trading volumes tells us that major players are not closing long positions.

This morning, the price is rising again and pushing through the resistance at 1.1076. If it manages to stay above this mark, the 1.1185 target will become relevant again. Settling above 1.1185 will pave the way for the price to reach the target of 1.1280. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator edged down yesterday but has gone back to rising again in today's Asian session.

On the 4-hour chart, the price briefly settled below 1.1076 but quickly turned back up. This was supported by the Marlin oscillator, which reversed from the border of the downtrend territory. We expect the euro to rise further.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 02-01-24, 08:10

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 2, 2024

EUR/USD
In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see a bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.

All price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 03-01-24, 06:08

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 3, 2024

GBP/USD
Amid investors' flight from risk on Tuesday, the British pound lost 111 pips and breached the support of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. This morning, the price quickly returned above the line, but the bulls' main goal for now is to close the day above the nearest resistance at 1.2645, otherwise, we may see a consolidation below this mark, and the bears could gain the upper hand, pushing the quote to 1.2524.

The Marlin oscillator has settled in a downtrend, so sellers have a good chance. If the price consolidates above 1.2645, the price could rise towards 1.2745, and a breakthrough of 1.2745 will provide an optimistic outlook towards 1.2930 - the upper band of a long-term price channel.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, as well as the level of 1.2645. The Marlin oscillator has also settled in negative territory. Considering the uptrend, we can consider the pound's decline as a short-term effect. The first signal for an upward move will be the price consolidating above the level of 1.2645, further confirmed by the price breaking above the MACD line and the 1.2705 mark. However, if the price fails to exhibit growth, it will fall, with 1.2524 as the target. We await further developments.

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**InstaForex Gertrude** · 04-01-24, 06:39

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 4, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday's US ISM business activity data for December showed improvement, but investors continued to move away from risk, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.80%, and the euro falling by 17 pips along with it. The manufacturing PMI rose from 46.7 to 47.4, and the employment index in the manufacturing sector increased from 45.8 to 48.1. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting confirmed the December theses of Williams, Bostic, and Mester regarding the market's reassessment of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy easing. The US will release employment reports both today and tomorrow – we expect market volatility to rise.

On the daily chart, the price has tested the target support level of 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator's signal line is indicating a potential bullish reversal. Perhaps, good data on new jobs in the private sector will restore risk appetite, and the euro will rise towards the level of 1.1033. If the price consolidates below 1.0905, it increases the risk of a decline towards 1.0825 and further to 1.0790, the MACD indicator line.

On the 4-hour chart, Marlin is preparing for an upward reversal (the green area). Currently, nothing is disrupting the technical reversal moment. We are waiting for the ADP employment data in the private sector. The forecast is optimistic – 115,000 jobs added compared to 103,000 in November.

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