Boj Likely to Stay Put at the February Meeting

Notes from Standard Chartered research: We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to stay put at its 17-18 February monetary policy meeting. However, we think the weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP reading highlights the need for further government and BoJ support. We also believe a significant change in its inflation outlook will indicate its next policy move. The rapid drop in domestic prices on lower global oil prices will be the central bank's biggest concern, in our view, although the longer-term impact of oil-price declines will likely be positive. The PPI inflation rate has dropped for three consecutive months since November 2014. We expect core inflation (which excludes fresh food) to fall back into negative territory in the coming months and reach 0-0.5% by end-FY15 (i.e., by March 2016).

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