Euro Area: Further Evidence of Low Inflation

In terms of data, this week will provide further evidence of our lowflation scenario, notes Societe Generale Research: With lower fuel prices, HICP inflation is set to print three ticks lower at just 0.0% yoy. Risks are tilted to the downside and the HICP is set to slide into negative territory in the coming months. Meanwhile, core inflation should marginally increase from 0.7% yoy to 0.8% yoy. Despite the positives arising from the lower euro and weaker oil prices, PMIs and the EC surveys should continue to point to low growth and inflation. December final euro-area PMIs are likely to be unchanged from the flash estimate in the services sector, with meaningful improvements expected both in Spain and Italy. Industrial production in November is set to continue to reflect a weak and uneven recovery across the region, with German output probably down by 0.4% momand French output probably rising by 0.7% mom.

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