Forex News from InstaForex

[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Has NZ$631 Million Trade Surplus

New Zealand had a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$631 million in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That topped forecasts for a surplus of NZ$300 million following the NZ$50 million surplus in February. Exports were down 2.0 percent on year to NZ$4.9 billion, while imports climbed an annual 4.1 percent to NZ$4.3 billion. Year to date, New Zealand has a trade deficit of NZ$2.407 billion versus forecasts for NZ$2.700 billion after coming in at NZ$2.181 billion in February.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Building Permits Climb 11% In March

The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 11.0 percent on month in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - standing at 2,271, a nine-year high. That topped forecasts for an increase of 2.0 percent following the 6.3 percent contraction in February. "Townhouses, units, and retirement villages have driven the increase in new dwelling consents over the past year," business indicators manager Neil Kelly said. On a yearly basis, the total number of permits issued spiked 14.0 percent. The value of permits issued in March climbed NZ$128 million or 10 percent to NZ$1.4 billion. Individually, residential work was up NZ$125 million or 16 percent to NZ$925 million, while non-residential work added NZ$3 million or 0.7 percent to NZ$427 million. By region, there were 756 permits issued in Auckland (of which 449 were houses). Canterbury had 588 permits (of which 460 were houses) and Waikato had 219 (of which 186 were houses).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia Inflation Expected To Slow - TD Securities

Consumer prices in Australia are expected to have decelerated in April, the latest survey from TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute showed on Monday. Inflation is forecast to have slowed to 0.3 percent on month after it was called at 0.4 percent in March. On a yearly basis, consumer prices are tipped to slow to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent in the previous month. The data further fuels speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may act to cut interest rates in the near term.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia Performance Of Service Index Contracts In April - AiG

The service sector in Australia swung to contraction in April, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed on Tuesday, with a Performance of Service Index score of 49.7. That's down from 50.2 in March, and it slips below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, new orders, services sales, supplier deliveries and services businesses all contracted in April, while services employment expanded.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.8% In Q1

The unemployment rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That missed forecasts for 5.5 percent, and it was up from 5.7 percent in the previous three months. Employment was up 0.7 percent on quarter - also missing expectations for 0.8 percent and down from 1.2 percent in Q4. On a yearly basis, employment added 3.2 percent versus forecasts for 3.3 percent and down from 3.5 percent in the previous three months. The participation rate was a record high 69.6 percent - beating forecasts for 69.4 percent, which would have been unchanged.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Latam - Bcch and Bcrp Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged

The Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) is expected to keep rates at 3.0% on 14 May. The April minutes show that the only policy option discussed was keeping rates on hold, which suggests a united board with a neutral bias. Activity has been weak but sentiment began to improve in April. President Bachelet's cabinet reshuffle could boost business confidence, allowing stronger growth in H2-2015. Banco de la Reserva de Perú (BCRP) will also decide rates on 14 May. No changes is expected, but a continued easing bias. The weaker Peruvian nuevo sol (PEN) has pressured inflation, which is near the top of the target range. Peru's April 2016 presidential elections could begin to have a negative impact on business confidence in H2-2015. BCRP may be saving its bullets for cuts later this year or early next year.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Prices Add 0.1%

An index measuring domestic corporate goods prices in Japan was up 0.1 percent on month in April, the Bank of Japan said on Friday, standing at 103.6. That was in line with expectations and down from 0.3 percent in March. On a yearly basis, prices dropped 2.1 percent - also matching forecasts following the 0.7 percent gain in the previous month. Export prices were up 0.1 percent on month and down 4.5 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices lost 1.3 percent on month and 17.8 percent on year.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Americas Roundup: - Second Weekly Gain for the Pound, up Almost 4% boosted by Uk Election Results and a Weak Greenback - 18 May, 2015

EUR/USD: The European currency has clinched its fifth consecutive week with gains vs. the US dollar, its main source of upside being the beleaguered dollar. Today's miserable results from Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the Reuters/Michigan index (in 7-month lows) added to the set of data disappointments. EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1452, a step closer to 1.15. Resistances are located at 1.1479, 1.1508 and 1.1536, while supports are seen at 1.1375, 1.1347 and then 1.1318. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 1.1300 (469M), 1.1450 (531M) GBP/USD reached levels on top of 1.5800 but failed to hold on to gains. The pair retreated from the highs and found support at 1.5735. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.5735, around 300 pips above the level it closed last Friday. It is the second weekly gain in a row for the pound versus the US dollar, in which it has risen almost 4% boosted by the UK election results and a weak greenback. UK inflation data (Tue), BoE's minutes (Wed), retail sales report (Thurs) and FOMC minutes (Wed) in focus next week. NZD/USD: kiwi up against the US dollar during the American session but unable to climb back above 0.7500. The pair dropped during the Asian session and bottomed on European hours at 0.7428, but rebounded after the release of weak economic data from the US. During the NY session the pair peaked at 0.7494 and was trading at 0.7485/90, unchanged for the day and also for the week. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 0.7580-85 (400M) USD/JPY faded below the 120 handle again. Rally was short lived where supply met in the 119.90's. The pair is currently trading at 119.31 with a high of 119.93 and a low of 119.15. Next hurdle is located in 120.82/84 area. Through 119.15, to the downside, 118.80 and 118.40 come in as next key supports. On the calendar next week, we have the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday 20th May. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 119.00 (500M), 120.00 (793M), 121.00 (1.2BLN) USD/MXN is falling on Friday for the fourth day in a row and is consolidating below an important short term support level located around 15.10. USD/MXN reached levels under 15.00 for the first time in a month. The peso gained momentum and pushed USD/MXN to 14.97, the lowest level since April 9. From there the pair rebounded and rose back above 15.00. Currently is trading at 15.01, down 0.53% for the week and 2.50% below the level it reached on Monday, when it peaked at 15.42.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Singapore NODX Advances 2.2% In April

Non-oil domestic exports in Singapore added 2.2 percent on year in April, International Enterprise Singapore said on Monday. That follows the 18.5 percent surge in March as an expansion in non-electronic NODX outweighed the decline in electronic NODX. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX tumbled 8.7 percent in April following the upwardly revised 23.1 percent spike in March (originally 23.0 percent). NODX came in at a seasonally adjusted S$14.5 billion in April, down from S$15.8 billion in the previous month.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia Leading Index Slips In March - Conference Board

A leading economic index for Australia was down 0.1 percent in March, the latest survey from the Conference Board showed on Tuesday - following the 0.5 percent increase in February. The leading index slid for the first time after three straight months of gain. Through the last six months, the index added 1.1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate), a reversal its contraction of 1.3 percent (about a -2.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The coincident index added 0.5 percent after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Euro-Area Economy Is Strong, But Some Headwinds are Returning

Euro-area GDP growth in Q1-2015 outpaced the US and the UK: the picture is emerging of a domestic-demand-driven recovery, supported by structural changes (banks have cleaned up their balance sheets, governments have cut fiscal deficits and - in some countries - have reformed labour and product markets), external stimulus (lower oil prices, a more competitive euro - EUR) and a cyclical upswing. Standard Chartered says they remain positive on the outlook, but anticipate that some headwinds will offset the stimulus from European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE). Oil prices are rising and will likely start to take headline inflation back towards target later in H2, muting consumer spending. "Some ECB Governing Council members may argue for QE to be cut short, but we expect bond-buying to continue at least until September 2016 and probably beyond: core inflation is likely to remain low, given the output gap", added Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Manufacturing Sector Expands In May - Markit

The manufacturing sector in Japan swung back to expansion in May, according to Thursday's preliminary survey from Markit Economics - which showed a PMI score of 50.9. That beat forecasts for a score of 50.3, and it was up from 49.9 in April. It also moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, the output index jumped to 51.7 from 49.3 in April, while production also rose at a moderate pace. Operating conditions improved slightly, the data showed.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Manufacturing Sector Expands In May - Markit

The manufacturing sector in Japan swung back to expansion in May, according to Thursday's preliminary survey from Markit Economics - which showed a PMI score of 50.9. That beat forecasts for a score of 50.3, and it was up from 49.9 in April. It also moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, the output index jumped to 51.7 from 49.3 in April, while production also rose at a moderate pace. Operating conditions improved slightly, the data showed.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Boj Is expected to Leave Monetary Policy steady Today

The Bank of Japan is expected to leave monetary policy steady today. Going forward, the BoJ has set the hurdle very high for easier policy and it is noted that political pressure is also abating. "We suggest that an imminent policy shift is even less likely than the consensus view amongst analysts" says RBC Capital Markets. Earlier in the week, the Nikkei reported that the BOJ is considering raising its economic assessment in its MPS. If so, it would be the first upgrade in almost two years.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand April Trade Surplus NZ$123 Million

New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$123 million in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - representing 3.0 percent of exports. The headline figure beat forecasts for a surplus of NZ$98 million following the NZ$631 million surplus in March. Exports were down NZ$240 million or 5.5 percent on year to NZ$4.17 billion versus forecasts for NZ$4.27 billion and down from NZ$4.93 billion in the previous month. Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports led the fall, down 27 percent (NZ$323 million) from April 2014, due to lower quantities for whole milk powder and lower prices overall. However, the quantity of dairy products exported rose 1.2 percent overall, led by whey, cheese, and butter. This offset the fall in whole milk powder quantity. "The value of whole milk powder we sent to China in April 2015 was a fifth of the April 2014 value," international statistics manager Jason Attewell said. "Volumes were a third of what they were in April 2014, and lower prices made up the rest of the fall in value." Other significant commodity group changes were fruit exports, up NZ$62 million, and crude oil exports, down NZ$63 million from April 2014. Imports added an annual 2.6 percent or NZ$104 million to NZ$4.04 billion versus expectations for NZ$4.12 billion and down from NZ$4.30 billion a month earlier. The increase was led by transport equipment (aircraft and parts). Consumption goods rose NZ$54 million, led by food and beverages. For the year ended April 2015, the annual trade deficit was NZ$2.6 billion. This is the largest annual trade deficit since the year ended June 2009 (NZ$3.1 billion).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Boc to Maintaining Its Overnight Lending Rate at 0.75

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its post-meeting statement at 10:00 ET on 27 May. There is no press conference. The overnight lending rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.75%, in line with all analysts polled by Bloomberg. Standard Chartered says they have recently revised their BoC rate call to 'unchanged' until 2017 from previously expecting two further rate cuts. While recent data has been mixed, the BoC sees better prospects ahead. The BoC continues to expect the January rate cut to have stimulated activity, while it sees green shoots in non-oil exports and investment, along with a boost from US growth. It also sings the praises of a resilient labour market and elevated entrepreneurship; it believes in the economy's continued progress in rebalancing away from the commodity sector. This optimistic tone was on display in Governor Poloz' 19 May speech. The BoC's 27 May statement will continue on this wavelength: while noting recent weaker data, it should still emphasise the better outlook. It should continue to point to "full capacity" being reached by end-2016. "The signal therefore will be that rates are firmly on hold for now, in our view. We expect rates to be on hold until at least 2017", says Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Core Inflation Likely remained 0%; Ip may have edged Up

Japan will release key April economic data on 29 April, including core inflation, industrial production (IP), and job data. Core inflation is expected to have dropped to 0.0% y/y in April from 2.2% in March as the base effect due to the April 2014 sales tax hike has started to wane. A 2% inflation target remains a distant goal for the Bank of Japan, and it is believed that the bank needs to ease still further in H2-2015. IP likely rebounded by 1.0% m/m in April after declining for two straight months. Q1 GDP showed better-than-expected investment readings, which may imply a gradual pickup in business activity. "We expect the unemployment rate to have stabilised at 3.5% in April, with the job-to-applicant ratio rising to 1.16 from 1.15 prior", says Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Us Second Q1 Gdp Print may be a Painful Reminder of Data Weakness

US data has mostly disappointed so far this year, with relatively broad-based weakness. Against widespread expectations of an acceleration early in the year, private consumption has remained lacklustre, despite the c.USD 800/household annual windfall from lower gasoline prices. Retail sales have undershot the market consensus for five straight months. As a result of widespread data disappointment, including on payrolls, the US surprise indices have continued to slide down. The Bloomberg surprise index is the lowest since the global financial crisis. The second Q1 GDP data release (Friday, 08:30 ET) may be a painful reminder of the poor start to the year. "We forecast a downward revision to -0.9% q/q SAAR (consensus: -0.8%), from 0.2% in the first print and 2.2% in Q4-2015",says Standard Chartered. This revision would be mostly on lower inventories and net trade, while private consumption could be raised slightly (although to a still-meagre 2.0% q/q SAAR). This could fuel debate about 'residual seasonality' in Q1 GDP data, which some San Francisco Fed researchers have recently discussed in their 18 May note, and that the statistics agency said it would tackle when updated data is released in late July.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Us Non-Farm Payrolls Likely to rise in May

Next week is a big US data week, with non-farm payrolls, the ISM manufacturing survey, April personal consumption expenditure and inflation data. Regional business surveys have remained mixed lately, and the ISM manufacturing survey is expected to have been stable at 51.5, suggesting still-meagre industrial activity growth (services should continue to do most of the heavy lifting near-term). Standard Chartered notes: We forecast April core PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred measure - to have remained at 1.3% y/y. We think the labour market remained resilient despite recent weaker US data, and we forecast a US payroll gain of 240,000, a touch more than the 223,000 gain in April. Our optimism is supported by recent services surveys showing still-healthy employment intentions, and initial jobless claims touching 15-year lows. We see the unemployment rate staying at 5.4%. This should keep the Fed on track to raise rates later this year (our long-held view is that September's meeting is the most likely time).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Canadian dollar hits 1-1/2 month trough against US dolla

The Canadian dollar surpassed a sharp retreat versus the US dollar Monday, affected by oil prices that slid on speculations OPEC production levels will remain elevated. US crude prices went up 0.05% at $60.33, but Brent crude erased 0.84% to $65.01. The 2nd quarter will be better… We all need to see numerous figures before we are 100% “convinced that core assumption is correct,” said Greg Anderson, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at BMO Capital Markets. The loonie closed at 79.78 US cents from Friday's 80.41 US cents. On Friday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold its semiannual meeting, which is awaited to retain production at high levels.

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