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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia Leading Index Slips In March - Conference Board

A leading economic index for Australia was down 0.1 percent in March, the latest survey from the Conference Board showed on Tuesday - following the 0.5 percent increase in February. The leading index slid for the first time after three straight months of gain. Through the last six months, the index added 1.1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate), a reversal its contraction of 1.3 percent (about a -2.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The coincident index added 0.5 percent after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month.

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Euro-Area Economy Is Strong, But Some Headwinds are Returning

Euro-area GDP growth in Q1-2015 outpaced the US and the UK: the picture is emerging of a domestic-demand-driven recovery, supported by structural changes (banks have cleaned up their balance sheets, governments have cut fiscal deficits and - in some countries - have reformed labour and product markets), external stimulus (lower oil prices, a more competitive euro - EUR) and a cyclical upswing. Standard Chartered says they remain positive on the outlook, but anticipate that some headwinds will offset the stimulus from European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE). Oil prices are rising and will likely start to take headline inflation back towards target later in H2, muting consumer spending. "Some ECB Governing Council members may argue for QE to be cut short, but we expect bond-buying to continue at least until September 2016 and probably beyond: core inflation is likely to remain low, given the output gap", added Standard Chartered.

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Japan Manufacturing Sector Expands In May - Markit

The manufacturing sector in Japan swung back to expansion in May, according to Thursday's preliminary survey from Markit Economics - which showed a PMI score of 50.9. That beat forecasts for a score of 50.3, and it was up from 49.9 in April. It also moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, the output index jumped to 51.7 from 49.3 in April, while production also rose at a moderate pace. Operating conditions improved slightly, the data showed.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Manufacturing Sector Expands In May - Markit

The manufacturing sector in Japan swung back to expansion in May, according to Thursday's preliminary survey from Markit Economics - which showed a PMI score of 50.9. That beat forecasts for a score of 50.3, and it was up from 49.9 in April. It also moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, the output index jumped to 51.7 from 49.3 in April, while production also rose at a moderate pace. Operating conditions improved slightly, the data showed.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Boj Is expected to Leave Monetary Policy steady Today

The Bank of Japan is expected to leave monetary policy steady today. Going forward, the BoJ has set the hurdle very high for easier policy and it is noted that political pressure is also abating. "We suggest that an imminent policy shift is even less likely than the consensus view amongst analysts" says RBC Capital Markets. Earlier in the week, the Nikkei reported that the BOJ is considering raising its economic assessment in its MPS. If so, it would be the first upgrade in almost two years.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand April Trade Surplus NZ$123 Million

New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$123 million in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - representing 3.0 percent of exports. The headline figure beat forecasts for a surplus of NZ$98 million following the NZ$631 million surplus in March. Exports were down NZ$240 million or 5.5 percent on year to NZ$4.17 billion versus forecasts for NZ$4.27 billion and down from NZ$4.93 billion in the previous month. Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports led the fall, down 27 percent (NZ$323 million) from April 2014, due to lower quantities for whole milk powder and lower prices overall. However, the quantity of dairy products exported rose 1.2 percent overall, led by whey, cheese, and butter. This offset the fall in whole milk powder quantity. "The value of whole milk powder we sent to China in April 2015 was a fifth of the April 2014 value," international statistics manager Jason Attewell said. "Volumes were a third of what they were in April 2014, and lower prices made up the rest of the fall in value." Other significant commodity group changes were fruit exports, up NZ$62 million, and crude oil exports, down NZ$63 million from April 2014. Imports added an annual 2.6 percent or NZ$104 million to NZ$4.04 billion versus expectations for NZ$4.12 billion and down from NZ$4.30 billion a month earlier. The increase was led by transport equipment (aircraft and parts). Consumption goods rose NZ$54 million, led by food and beverages. For the year ended April 2015, the annual trade deficit was NZ$2.6 billion. This is the largest annual trade deficit since the year ended June 2009 (NZ$3.1 billion).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Boc to Maintaining Its Overnight Lending Rate at 0.75

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its post-meeting statement at 10:00 ET on 27 May. There is no press conference. The overnight lending rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.75%, in line with all analysts polled by Bloomberg. Standard Chartered says they have recently revised their BoC rate call to 'unchanged' until 2017 from previously expecting two further rate cuts. While recent data has been mixed, the BoC sees better prospects ahead. The BoC continues to expect the January rate cut to have stimulated activity, while it sees green shoots in non-oil exports and investment, along with a boost from US growth. It also sings the praises of a resilient labour market and elevated entrepreneurship; it believes in the economy's continued progress in rebalancing away from the commodity sector. This optimistic tone was on display in Governor Poloz' 19 May speech. The BoC's 27 May statement will continue on this wavelength: while noting recent weaker data, it should still emphasise the better outlook. It should continue to point to "full capacity" being reached by end-2016. "The signal therefore will be that rates are firmly on hold for now, in our view. We expect rates to be on hold until at least 2017", says Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Core Inflation Likely remained 0%; Ip may have edged Up

Japan will release key April economic data on 29 April, including core inflation, industrial production (IP), and job data. Core inflation is expected to have dropped to 0.0% y/y in April from 2.2% in March as the base effect due to the April 2014 sales tax hike has started to wane. A 2% inflation target remains a distant goal for the Bank of Japan, and it is believed that the bank needs to ease still further in H2-2015. IP likely rebounded by 1.0% m/m in April after declining for two straight months. Q1 GDP showed better-than-expected investment readings, which may imply a gradual pickup in business activity. "We expect the unemployment rate to have stabilised at 3.5% in April, with the job-to-applicant ratio rising to 1.16 from 1.15 prior", says Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Us Second Q1 Gdp Print may be a Painful Reminder of Data Weakness

US data has mostly disappointed so far this year, with relatively broad-based weakness. Against widespread expectations of an acceleration early in the year, private consumption has remained lacklustre, despite the c.USD 800/household annual windfall from lower gasoline prices. Retail sales have undershot the market consensus for five straight months. As a result of widespread data disappointment, including on payrolls, the US surprise indices have continued to slide down. The Bloomberg surprise index is the lowest since the global financial crisis. The second Q1 GDP data release (Friday, 08:30 ET) may be a painful reminder of the poor start to the year. "We forecast a downward revision to -0.9% q/q SAAR (consensus: -0.8%), from 0.2% in the first print and 2.2% in Q4-2015",says Standard Chartered. This revision would be mostly on lower inventories and net trade, while private consumption could be raised slightly (although to a still-meagre 2.0% q/q SAAR). This could fuel debate about 'residual seasonality' in Q1 GDP data, which some San Francisco Fed researchers have recently discussed in their 18 May note, and that the statistics agency said it would tackle when updated data is released in late July.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Us Non-Farm Payrolls Likely to rise in May

Next week is a big US data week, with non-farm payrolls, the ISM manufacturing survey, April personal consumption expenditure and inflation data. Regional business surveys have remained mixed lately, and the ISM manufacturing survey is expected to have been stable at 51.5, suggesting still-meagre industrial activity growth (services should continue to do most of the heavy lifting near-term). Standard Chartered notes: We forecast April core PCE inflation - the Fed's preferred measure - to have remained at 1.3% y/y. We think the labour market remained resilient despite recent weaker US data, and we forecast a US payroll gain of 240,000, a touch more than the 223,000 gain in April. Our optimism is supported by recent services surveys showing still-healthy employment intentions, and initial jobless claims touching 15-year lows. We see the unemployment rate staying at 5.4%. This should keep the Fed on track to raise rates later this year (our long-held view is that September's meeting is the most likely time).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Canadian dollar hits 1-1/2 month trough against US dolla

The Canadian dollar surpassed a sharp retreat versus the US dollar Monday, affected by oil prices that slid on speculations OPEC production levels will remain elevated. US crude prices went up 0.05% at $60.33, but Brent crude erased 0.84% to $65.01. The 2nd quarter will be better… We all need to see numerous figures before we are 100% “convinced that core assumption is correct,” said Greg Anderson, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at BMO Capital Markets. The loonie closed at 79.78 US cents from Friday's 80.41 US cents. On Friday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold its semiannual meeting, which is awaited to retain production at high levels.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

US dollar slides to new 1-month lows on calm inflation data



The US dollar skidded to new one-month trough on Friday, as inflation data aggravated the uncertainty over the timing of Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. A measure of core inflation went up almost 0.1% in May, the smallest increase in five months. The greenback stood at $1.1373 per euro. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar closed at ¥123.080. It seems the US markets were contented with the view this week's FOMC meeting “reduced the chances of more than one rate hike before year end,” said Ray Attrill, Global Co-head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

US dollar turns in advances on deadlock in Greek talks



The US dollar stabilized on Thursday as debt talks seeking to avert a Greek debt default reached a bump, with the market seemed to shift back to likelihoods of higher interest rates from Greece. The greenback stood at $1.1204 per euro from Tuesday's $1.1135. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar hit ¥123.88 from ¥124.38 earlier. EUR/USD responded less, unlike USD/JPY on underlying positivity an agreement will be closed as it remains intact “amid pessimism over the talks breaking down,” said Junichi Ishikawa, Market Analyst at IG Securities. Meanwhile, European leaders are scheduled to meet in Brussels Thursday.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

AT&T, DirecTv extend 'termination date' for second time



The No. 2 telecom company in the U.S., AT&T Inc., said it has extended the “termination date” of the merger agreement with DirecTV, the second time in 2 months. In a regulatory filing, the company said the extension is aimed at obtaining final regulatory approval for the merger. In May last year, AT&T offered to buy DirecTV to create the largest U.S. pay TV company.

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British pound strengthens as UK economy improves



The British pound accelerated on Tuesday as UK economy improves and the likelihood of an interest rate hike increases. Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom leaped to its highest level in more than 15 years in June, with monthly sentiment index bounced to +7 from +1 in May. Sterling surged to 70.85 British pence per euro from Monday's 69.89 British pence. Against the US dollar, the pound closed at $1.5726. The UK and the United States are the only two countries that seem to have “central banks that are teeing markets up for slightly less accommodative monetary policy,” said Gavin Friend, Strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

US dollar ascends on upbeat ADP jobs data

The US dollar strengthens on Thursday as the market is preparing for a bunch of US data ahead of the July 4 Independence Day. Based on the ADP National Employment Report, private employers added 237,000 in June, the largest gain since December. The greenback finished at $1.1044 per euro. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fetched ¥123.22. Additional improvement in the labor sector may bolster speculations for a rate hike this year. But it “risks a further delay in the Fed's normalization cycle,” said David Song, Currency Analyst at DailyFX.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

British pound recuperates amid upbeat UK construction data

The British pound regained from two-week troughs versus the US dollar Thursday following UK construction output increased in June. Markit reported the UK construction purchasing managers' index climbed to 58.1 from 55.9 in May. Against the US dollar, sterling stood at $1.5640. The pound finished at 71.04 pence per euro. We notice some moderate selling in the US dollar, with jobs figures “helping the euro and the pound,” said a London-based spot trader. Risks to the UK economy lurk in the likelihood of Greece's eurozone exit. But in the short run, ructions in the region could cultivate safe-haven inflows into the country.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Usd/idr Sustain Firm Above 13350



Pair gaps up at open to 13340-360 and traded firm since
Pair traded 13350-370 range so far, last at 13350-360
NDFs shot higher to 13440-470; JKSE -0.47%

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Eur/usd Calm ahead of Eu Summit

Time running out as debt repayments loom and Greek banks strapped for cash Pair under pressure as market awaits the result of yet another EU summit EU leaders are urging Greek PM Tsipras to come up with firm proposal Greece likely to propose relief on their debt in exchange for austerity EU so far has resisted any proposals involving Greek debt relief If no sign of deal materializes it will likely weigh on EUR sentiment

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan May Current Account Surplus Y1.880 Trillion

Japan posted a current account surplus of 1.880 trillion yen in May, the ministry of Finance said on Wednesday - surging 266.7 percent on year. The headline figure topped expectations for a surplus of 1.570 trillion yen following the 1.326 trillion yen surplus in April. The trade balance reflected a deficit of 47.3 billion yen - also beating forecasts for a shortfall of 283.8 billion yen following the 146.2 billion yen shortfall in the previous month. Exports were down 0.1 percent on year to 5.707 trillion yen following the 4.1 percent jump in April. Imports tumbled an annual 10.3 percent to 5.754 trillion yen following the 5.9 percent decline a month earlier. The capital account had a deficit of 8.9billion yen, the ministry said, while the financial account saw a surplus of 3.629 trillion yen. The adjusted current account surplus was 1.636 trillion yen - which beat forecasts for 1.375 trillion yen following the 1.274 trillion yen surplus a month earlier. Also on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan said that overall bank lending in Japan was up 2.5 percent on year in June, coming in at 487.773 trillion yen. That was in line with expectations, and down from the 2.6 percent increase in May. Excluding trusts, bank lending advanced 2.6 percent to 424.212 trillion yen. That beat forecasts for an increase of 2.5 percent following the 2.7 percent gain in the previous month. Lending from trusts added an annual 1.9 percent to 63.561 trillion yen, while lending from foreign banks tumbled an annual 15.3 percent to 1.843 trillion yen.

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