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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Bank of Canada may Stay Put at Its April Meeting



The Bank of Canada releases its policy decision at 10:00 ET on Wednesday, alongside its quarterly monetary policy report. "We think the overnight lending rate will be kept at 0.75%, as all analysts polled by Bloomberg also forecast. We do not entirely dismiss a rate cut - the memory of the 'surprise' January rate cut remains vivid", Says Standard Chartered Governor Poloz is not afraid of surprise moves - but the probability is relatively low. The tone as being dovish, and expect Governor Poloz to emphasise that the BoC remains open to cutting rates further later, depending on the data. A likely modest cut to the 2015 growth forecast (currently 2.1%) should add to the dovish slant.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Poland Will Probably Exit Deflation This Year[/B]

Although a stronger PLN may extend the period of deflation, a turning point has been reached in the deflationary cycle that began in August 2014. The CPI bottomed out in February, and after increasing in March, and it will likely gradually increase in the forthcoming months, turning positive again by the end of Q4 15. The central bank expects deflation to come in at -0.5% yoy at the end of 2015. The Ministry of Finance expects the country to exit deflation sooner than the central bank is forecasting. It is possible, however, that a stronger PLN and volatile oil prices create uncertainty around the ministry's expectation. "In its recent World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast Poland's CPI to accelerate to 0.4% yoy at the end of this year. In our opinion, it will instead be in the range of 0.1-0.3%", said Societe Generale in a report on Thursday

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Canada: Cpi and Retail Sales Two Top Tier Data Releases Tonight[/B]

Tonight we get two top tier data releases in Canada: CPI and retail sales. A still-firm, but on-consensus CPI report is expected (RBC: core 2.1%y/y, cons: 2.1%), and considering the BoC seems to be more focused on activity indicators at the moment, that means the retail sales figure is more relevant and likely to get an FX reaction. The expectations are decently above consensus for retail sales (RBC: ex-auto 1.3%m/m, cons: 0.7%). That implies a CAD positive reaction, but that may only be a small influence compared to the direction of oil prices which have been the most important driver for CAD this week. RBC Capital Market Says "Our technical strategy team highlights 60.99 and 63.50 as the key levels above for WTI now that the long-held range has broken. For USD/CAD, they point out 1.2114 and 1.2066 as the key levels below, and see resistance located at 1.2253 and 1.2326"

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Treasuries Recover From Early Weakness Amid Sell-Off On Wall Street

After moving modestly lower in early trading Friday, treasuries showed a notable turnaround over the course of the trading day. Bond prices climbed well off their early lows to end the day firmly in positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 2.8 basis points to 1.85 percent. With the drop on the day, the ten-year yield extended a recent downward trend, ending the session at its lowest closing level in well over two months. The rebound by treasuries was partly due to a sell-off on Wall Street, with the Dow tumbling by more than 300 points at its worst levels. Concerns about developments overseas contributed to the pullback by stocks, leading some traders to move their money into the relatively safe haven of bonds. The early weakness among treasuries came following the release of the Labor Department's report on consumer price inflation in the month of March. The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in March, matching the increase seen in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent for the third consecutive month. The uptick in core prices matched economist estimates. While the headline index was down by 0.1 percent compared to a year-ago, the annual rate of core price growth ticked up to 1.8 percent in March from 1.7 percent in February. The core price growth is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, said, "Given recent activity data weakness, which has seemed to all but rule out a June rate hike, this data adds an additional, but unhelpfully contradictory inflation element to the rate hike timing debate." "That said, it will need corroboration by activity data soon if it is not to be too late for a June hike, and that point of no return may have already been passed," he added. Following the slew of economic data released over the past week, the economic calendar for next week is relatively quiet. Nonetheless, traders are likely to keep an eye on reports on weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and new and existing home sales.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Tertiary Industry Index +0.3% In February

An index measuring tertiary industry activity in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in February, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday, standing at 100.5. That topped forecasts for a decline of 0.7 percent following the 1.4 percent gain in January. Among the industries moving higher were real estate, transport and postal activities, finance and learning support. Industries moving lower included retail, medical, utilities, personal services and compound services.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Singapore Inflation Likely decreased Further in March

Singapore releases March inflation numbers on 23 April. On a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, inflation likely decreased to -0.1%. Singapore's current path of disinflation is temporary. Housing inflation likely continued to drag down headline inflation, as decreases in housing prices weighed on the rental market. Private road transport inflation was also likely dragged down by a sharper correction in ownership premiums on motor vehicles. In contrast, petrol duties implemented in February likely continued to support core inflation. A deflationary pressures is seen dissipating as the year progresses. "We expect inflation to have declined further to -0.5% y/y, versus the higher -0.3% recorded in February", says Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Taiwan Ip Data Likely to have slowed due to Base Effects

Taiwan is scheduled to release March industrial production (IP) data on 23 April. Weak export sales data during February-March and softer global oil prices likely impacted production output negatively in March. Residential and real estate construction activity is expected to have been dampened by the government's efforts to curb speculation in the residential property market. On the positive side, activity in the local retail trade and services sector likely remained robust, partly due to rising tourist arrivals, which supported IP activity. "We expect IP to have expanded by 2.0% y/y, the slowest annual gain since late 2013, partly due to base effects", says Standard Chartered.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Germany Ifo Business Climate Likely continued to Improve

The index has been on a clear uptrend since its trough in October 2014. The combination of a lower oil price, and European Central Bank easing policies that led to euro (EUR) depreciation and lower borrowing rates is helping German businesses. Exporters are likely to be particularly positively affected by EUR depreciation. In the last survey, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers all showed an improved outlook. The construction-sector outlook deteriorated, but remains strong. Germany is expected to maintain this positive momentum in Q2, unless geopolitical events raise uncertainty or the situation in Greece becomes more dramatic. "We expect the German IFO business climate index to have increased to 108.7 in April from 107.9 in March, an eight-month high", said Standard Chartered in a report on Thursday.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Producer Prices Rise 3.2% In March

An index measuring producer prices in Japan were up 3.2 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Friday - standing at 103.0. That was just shy of forecasts for 3.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the February reading. Among the individual components, prices were down for hotels, real estate, communications and transportation. For the first quarter of 2015, producer prices were up 3.3 percent on year, slowing from 3.5 percent in the previous three months. They were also down 0.1 percent on quarter after adding 0.2 percent in the three months prior.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Americas Roundup: Cad Rapidly Depreciating Vs. Usd on Friday, Poloz Speech Weighs - 27 April, 2015

Market Roundup United States Durable Goods Mar 4%, forecast 0.6%, previous -1.4% United States Non-def Ex-Air Mar -0.5%, forecast 0.3%, previous -2.2%, def spending skews headline number Mexico Retail Sales YY Feb 5.6%, forecast 4.2%, previous 4.7%, rates on hold unless inflation rises United States Mar building permits revised number mm increase to 1.042 mln vs previous 1.039 mln United States Mar building permits revised chg mm increase to -5.4 % vs previous -5.7 % Argentina Feb economic activity yy increase to +1.4 % (forecast 0.5 %) vs previous 0.0 % Argentina Mar industrial output nsa increase to -1.6 % (forecast -1.5 %) vs previous -2.2 % Colombia's central bank holds key lending rate at 4.5 pct, as expected Greece's Varoufakis agreement with lenders will be difficult but will happen, there is no other choice; Greece needs a deal & is ready to compromise Germany'S Merkel says we will do everything to ensure that Greece stays in the Euro zone European governments have largely failed to reform (EU document) Bank of Canada's Poloz Oil price shock soon to be positive overall for Canada Reuters Poll Brazil's CB to hike rates 50bps next week to 13.25% (42/48 economists) Economic Data Ahead No Significant Data Key Events Ahead Sat Apr 25 (1130 ET/ 1530 GMT) German Bundesbank Pres Weidmann & German FinMin Schaeuble to participate in a press conference FX Recap USD/CAD: Canadian dollar is now rapidly depreciating vs. its American counterpart on Friday, lifting USD/CAD to session highs near 1.2180. Canadian dollar shed further ground following Poloz speech. USD dynamics and the crude oil performance will remain the main drivers for the CAD into the next week. GDP figures for the month of February, due on Thursday will also be watched. Currently the pair is up 0.21% at 1.2170. Immediate resistance is at 1.2208 (low Apr 22) followed by 1.2250 (high Apr 23) and then 1.2328 (high Apr 16). Supports on the downside are at 1.2135 (low Apr 23), 1.2100 (psychological level) and finally 1.2088 (low Apr 17). Option expiries Monday 27th: 1.20 (700M),1.2035-50 (700M), 1.2165 (804M), 1.22 (807M) USD/JPY: Greenback is losing face in to the closing hours of the week's session. USD/JPY bears in charge ahead of BoJ next week. The pair has lost the 119 handle in a bearish market, and is currently trading at the day's low of 118.84 after having made a high of 119.67. Supports is seen at 118.30 (March 26 low), while resistances are at 120.14 and 120.44.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Uk Consumption to Drive Growth, Investment Under Pressur

UK GDP is expected to have expanded 0.7% q/q (2.8% y/y) in Q1, slightly higher than the 0.6% q/q rise in Q4-2014. Household consumption likely remained the key contributor to GDP growth, as it has been since the beginning of the UK recovery. Net trade is also likely to have made a marginally positive contribution, leading to a smaller trade deficit. Business investment may have remained under pressure due to election uncertainty; it fell 0.9% q/q in Q4. Whether we see a rebound in investment in Q2 will depend on how quickly the uncertainty fades after the election. Regarding GDP's sectoral breakdown, the average services PMI for Q1 was higher than in Q4-2014, a signal that the recovery remains very much driven by the services sector. Industrial production is more subdued recently, especially the oil-extraction sector.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Has NZ$631 Million Trade Surplus

New Zealand had a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$631 million in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That topped forecasts for a surplus of NZ$300 million following the NZ$50 million surplus in February. Exports were down 2.0 percent on year to NZ$4.9 billion, while imports climbed an annual 4.1 percent to NZ$4.3 billion. Year to date, New Zealand has a trade deficit of NZ$2.407 billion versus forecasts for NZ$2.700 billion after coming in at NZ$2.181 billion in February.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Building Permits Climb 11% In March

The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 11.0 percent on month in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - standing at 2,271, a nine-year high. That topped forecasts for an increase of 2.0 percent following the 6.3 percent contraction in February. "Townhouses, units, and retirement villages have driven the increase in new dwelling consents over the past year," business indicators manager Neil Kelly said. On a yearly basis, the total number of permits issued spiked 14.0 percent. The value of permits issued in March climbed NZ$128 million or 10 percent to NZ$1.4 billion. Individually, residential work was up NZ$125 million or 16 percent to NZ$925 million, while non-residential work added NZ$3 million or 0.7 percent to NZ$427 million. By region, there were 756 permits issued in Auckland (of which 449 were houses). Canterbury had 588 permits (of which 460 were houses) and Waikato had 219 (of which 186 were houses).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia Inflation Expected To Slow - TD Securities

Consumer prices in Australia are expected to have decelerated in April, the latest survey from TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute showed on Monday. Inflation is forecast to have slowed to 0.3 percent on month after it was called at 0.4 percent in March. On a yearly basis, consumer prices are tipped to slow to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent in the previous month. The data further fuels speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may act to cut interest rates in the near term.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia Performance Of Service Index Contracts In April - AiG

The service sector in Australia swung to contraction in April, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed on Tuesday, with a Performance of Service Index score of 49.7. That's down from 50.2 in March, and it slips below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, new orders, services sales, supplier deliveries and services businesses all contracted in April, while services employment expanded.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.8% In Q1

The unemployment rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That missed forecasts for 5.5 percent, and it was up from 5.7 percent in the previous three months. Employment was up 0.7 percent on quarter - also missing expectations for 0.8 percent and down from 1.2 percent in Q4. On a yearly basis, employment added 3.2 percent versus forecasts for 3.3 percent and down from 3.5 percent in the previous three months. The participation rate was a record high 69.6 percent - beating forecasts for 69.4 percent, which would have been unchanged.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Latam - Bcch and Bcrp Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged

The Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) is expected to keep rates at 3.0% on 14 May. The April minutes show that the only policy option discussed was keeping rates on hold, which suggests a united board with a neutral bias. Activity has been weak but sentiment began to improve in April. President Bachelet's cabinet reshuffle could boost business confidence, allowing stronger growth in H2-2015. Banco de la Reserva de Perú (BCRP) will also decide rates on 14 May. No changes is expected, but a continued easing bias. The weaker Peruvian nuevo sol (PEN) has pressured inflation, which is near the top of the target range. Peru's April 2016 presidential elections could begin to have a negative impact on business confidence in H2-2015. BCRP may be saving its bullets for cuts later this year or early next year.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Prices Add 0.1%

An index measuring domestic corporate goods prices in Japan was up 0.1 percent on month in April, the Bank of Japan said on Friday, standing at 103.6. That was in line with expectations and down from 0.3 percent in March. On a yearly basis, prices dropped 2.1 percent - also matching forecasts following the 0.7 percent gain in the previous month. Export prices were up 0.1 percent on month and down 4.5 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices lost 1.3 percent on month and 17.8 percent on year.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Americas Roundup: - Second Weekly Gain for the Pound, up Almost 4% boosted by Uk Election Results and a Weak Greenback - 18 May, 2015

EUR/USD: The European currency has clinched its fifth consecutive week with gains vs. the US dollar, its main source of upside being the beleaguered dollar. Today's miserable results from Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the Reuters/Michigan index (in 7-month lows) added to the set of data disappointments. EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1452, a step closer to 1.15. Resistances are located at 1.1479, 1.1508 and 1.1536, while supports are seen at 1.1375, 1.1347 and then 1.1318. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 1.1300 (469M), 1.1450 (531M) GBP/USD reached levels on top of 1.5800 but failed to hold on to gains. The pair retreated from the highs and found support at 1.5735. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.5735, around 300 pips above the level it closed last Friday. It is the second weekly gain in a row for the pound versus the US dollar, in which it has risen almost 4% boosted by the UK election results and a weak greenback. UK inflation data (Tue), BoE's minutes (Wed), retail sales report (Thurs) and FOMC minutes (Wed) in focus next week. NZD/USD: kiwi up against the US dollar during the American session but unable to climb back above 0.7500. The pair dropped during the Asian session and bottomed on European hours at 0.7428, but rebounded after the release of weak economic data from the US. During the NY session the pair peaked at 0.7494 and was trading at 0.7485/90, unchanged for the day and also for the week. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 0.7580-85 (400M) USD/JPY faded below the 120 handle again. Rally was short lived where supply met in the 119.90's. The pair is currently trading at 119.31 with a high of 119.93 and a low of 119.15. Next hurdle is located in 120.82/84 area. Through 119.15, to the downside, 118.80 and 118.40 come in as next key supports. On the calendar next week, we have the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday 20th May. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 119.00 (500M), 120.00 (793M), 121.00 (1.2BLN) USD/MXN is falling on Friday for the fourth day in a row and is consolidating below an important short term support level located around 15.10. USD/MXN reached levels under 15.00 for the first time in a month. The peso gained momentum and pushed USD/MXN to 14.97, the lowest level since April 9. From there the pair rebounded and rose back above 15.00. Currently is trading at 15.01, down 0.53% for the week and 2.50% below the level it reached on Monday, when it peaked at 15.42.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Singapore NODX Advances 2.2% In April

Non-oil domestic exports in Singapore added 2.2 percent on year in April, International Enterprise Singapore said on Monday. That follows the 18.5 percent surge in March as an expansion in non-electronic NODX outweighed the decline in electronic NODX. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX tumbled 8.7 percent in April following the upwardly revised 23.1 percent spike in March (originally 23.0 percent). NODX came in at a seasonally adjusted S$14.5 billion in April, down from S$15.8 billion in the previous month.

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