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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan Core Machine Orders Dip 1.7% In January

Core machine orders in Japan contracted 1.7 percent on month in January, the Cabinet Office said on Wednesday - worth 838.9 billion yen. The headline figure beat expectations for a decline of 4.0 percent following the 8.3 percent surge in December. On a yearly basis, core machine orders added 1.9 percent - also topping forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 11.4 percent spike in the previous month. The total number of machinery orders, including those volatile ones for ships and from electric power companies, gained 14.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year. Manufacturing orders shed 11.3 percent on month but gained 7.3 percent on year to 351.8 billion yen in January, while non-manufacturing orders added 3.7 percent on month but lost 1.9 percent on year to 494.5 billion yen. Government orders gained 25.8 percent on month and 37.4 percent on year to 346.7 billion yen. Orders from overseas climbed 24.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year to 990.6 billion yen. Orders from agencies tumbled 13.9 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year to 99.3 billion yen. For the first quarter of 2015, core machine orders are forecast to have risen 1.5 percent on quarter but lost 0.9 percent on year to 2,455.2 billion yen. Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said that its index measuring producer prices was unchanged on month in February, the Bank of Japan said, standing at 103.3. That was in line with expectations following the 1.3 percent contraction in January. On a yearly basis, prices added 0.5 percent - beating forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent following the 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. Export prices lost 0.8 percent on month and 5.2 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices tumbled 4.9 percent on month and 17.9 percent on year.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Usd/jpy Bounce Back After Spike down to 120.65 After US Retail Sales Miss

USD/JPY spikes down to 120.65 after large US retail sales miss Pair bounce back to 121.42 in New York, range again in Asia

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales Rise 2.9% In February

The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 95,737. That follows the downwardly revised 1.9 percent decline in January (originally -1.5 percent). On a yearly basis, new motor vehicle sales advanced 4.1 percent - accelerating from 0.2 percent in the previous month. By category, sales of passenger vehicles dipped 0.9 percent on month, while other vehicles eased 0.3 percent and sport utility vehicles surged 10.5 percent. By region, the Northern Territory saw the largest percentage increase (22.4 percent) followed by South Australia (8.8 percent) and the Australian Capital Territory (5.9 percent).

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Aud/usd Move Lower from 0.7638 to 0.7611 on Dovish Rba Minutes

RBA considered rate cut at March meet but decided to pause for more data AUD/USD back to 0.7626 last and down 0.15% on the day

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Fed Likely to Remove ‘patient’ Guidance

Markets eagerly await Wednesday's FOMC decision (post-meeting statement and updated projections: 14:00 ET, Chair Yellen's press conference: 14:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes: We think the Fed will remove the "patient" guidance from the statement as it seeks to move towards a more flexible, data-dependent framework. We do not think the softer recent data (e.g., housing, manufacturing production, Michigan consumer survey) changes this picture as the Fed is likely to blame recent weaker data on the harsh weather and emphasize strong payroll growth data. Payroll additions have averaged a solid 293,000/month in the past six months. We do not think the removal of 'patient' automatically means a June rate hike, which Chair Yellen is likely to underscore in her press conference. We think the Fed is likely to wait until September, after core PCE inflation troughs and with more signs that wage growth is on a sustainable uptrend. The Fed may also see more evidence of improving growth in Q2 to support its view that soft Q1 data was weather-related. The shape of the tightening cycle will be an important topic: we expect Yellen to say it is likely to be very gradual, and remain data-dependent. We do not think Yellen will 'talk down' the US dollar's recent strength as, although a headwind, she may emphasise it may be offset by the boost to consumption from lower oil prices and the ongoing underlying improvement in domestic demand.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Usd/jpy to 119.29 Post fED Taking Out Longs, Bounce to 120.1 Since

Some large 120.00 option expiries too, USD447 million

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index Ticks Higher In March - ANZ

Consumer confidence in New Zealand inched slightly higher in March, the latest survey from ANZ Bank showed on Friday - gaining 0.5 percent on month to a score of 124.6. That follows the 3.8 percent tumble in February to a reading of 120.0. "(The result is) a positive sign for a sustainable trend in retail spending," ANZ said in a statement accompanying the data. "The underlying message remains one of optimism."

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Crude Oil Ends Sharply Higher As Dollar Weakens; Gains 4% For Week

U.S. crude oil ended sharply higher on Friday, as the dollar tumbled against a basket of major currencies, under pressure from the Fed's statement regarding rate hikes. Investors largely ignored the supply glut situation, despite indications that global stockpiles will continue to rise. Oil futures recorded a weekly gain of about 4 percent, for the first time in five weeks. With the Federal Reserve providing a somewhat muddled outlook on interest rate hikes two days ago, most commodities and currencies took off on a roller-coaster ride. The Fed withdrew its promise to be patient on interest rate hikes, but then downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and signaled tightening would not occur until the second half of the year. Fed Chief Janet Yellen took a dovish stand with some lower outlook for inflation and GDP growth, signaling that interest rate is likely to rise at a slower pace than expected earlier. Crude oil initially rallied on the Fed's statement indicating rate hikes will be pushed out until at least July, but prices then moved back toward recent 6-year lows.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Usd pressured by Commodities Gains, Lower Yields

Gold soars Friday, other commodities up. US yields also steady at lower levels seen post-Fed, US Tsy 10s at 1.931%.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Falls After China Manufacturing PMI

The Australian dollar weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday, after data showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March. Data from HSBC Bank showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March, with a PMI score of 49.2. That was well shy of forecasts for 50.5, and it was down sharply from 50.7 in February. Now at an 11-month low, the index also dipped below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The Australian dollar fell to 93.83 against the yen, 1.3930 against the euro and 1.0260 against the NZ dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 94.32, 1.3889 and 1.0293, respectively. Against the Canada and U.S. dollars, the aussie dropped to 0.9814 and 0.7836 from an early near 2-month high of 0.9880 and nearly a 4-week high of 0.7901, respectively. At yesterday's close, the aussie was trading at 0.9863 against the loonie and 0.7878 against the greenback. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 91.50 against the yen, 1.36 against the euro, 1.01 against the kiwi, 0.96 against the loonie and 0.75 against the greenback.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Saudi Arabia Starts Bombing Targets in Yemen, Bullish for Oil Price

Saudi envoy to US says has launched a military operation in Yemen to defend government of president Saudi envoy says military operation in Yemen involves 10 countries including gulf Arab countries Saudi envoy says Yemen Houthi militia forces are in control ballistic weapons Saudi envoy says Hadi and other members of his cabinet are continuing to run the government from Aden Saudi envoy says trying to save Yemen from radical group, have decided to assist Yemen government as requested Saudi envoy says objective of operation is protecting and defending legitimate government of Yemen Saudi envoy says consulted about the military operation with the United States Ssaudi envoy says military operation in Yemen involves air strikes Saudi envoy says declines to give current location of hadi, refers questions to Yemeni officials Saudi envoy says military operation is based on UN and Arab league charters that justify support for Hadi's government Saudi envoy says Houthi militia has control of Yemeni air force Saudi envoy says has air assets from various countries in Saudi Arabia and other military assets on the way to the kingdom Saudi envoy says military operation is not limited to one particular city or region of Yemen Saudi envoy says "having yemen fail is not an option for us" Saudi envoy says military operation Yemen started at 7 p.m. EST and the US is not participating in the operation

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japanese Investors are Bullish on Japan

Ever since Prime Minister Abe's plans for economic and financial reform - 'Abenomics'- were put in place, there has been increased optimism towards financial assets. Monetary and fiscal stimulus have supported rallies in the Nikkei and USD-JPY since November 2012 of 125% and 50%, respectively. The sense of optimism is different this time. This is more than financial assets being supported by quantitative easing. Standard Chartered (SC) research notes that there is a strong belief among local investors that things are changing in corporate Japan. Corporates are drawing down cash from their balance sheets and using it to fund overseas M&A. There is also an increased focus by corporate leaders on improving return on equity (ROE). If the objective of Abenomics is to change the mindset of consumers and corporates, it seems that the corporates are listening and ready to act. If local investor optimism was focused on USD-JPY in December, investors are currently focusing all of their domestic interests on local equities. The shift in investor positioning is reflected in the change in correlation between USD-JPY and the Nikkei. As recently as February, the 30-day rolling correlation between the two markets was as high as 0.60, but has fallen to marginally negative levels. In addition to increased optimism about corporate behaviour, there is increased confidence in corporate profitability. SC adds that investors highlighted improvements in earnings as well as profit margins.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Usd/myr Uptrend Intact Above 3.70, Could Test at 3.7280 Ytd High

Higher DXY, fiscal woes, foreign outflows underpin 1 month traded 3.7255-3.7300 range overnight, closed 3.7245-85 in NY

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Gbp Focus Remains on the Election

In a similar vein to last week where the final reading of UK Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised higher, UK activity data this week should be consistent with robust economic activity. However, continued political uncertainty is likely to keep downward pressure on GBP. Barclays says they and consensus forecast the services PMI (Tuesday) to increase slightly to 57.0 in March from 56.7 in February while industrial and manufacturing output (Friday) should both increase 0.4% m/m in February (consensus: 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively). The Bank of England rate decision (Thursday) is widely expected to result in no change of policy and therefore no statement will be issued. Indeed, central bank guidance is likely to be lacking over the next five weeks. With the dissolution of parliament on 30 March, the BoE is now bound by "purdah" rules which prevent central bank communication until the final election results are known. The 7 May general election remains the least predictable in a generation and growing political risk premium ahead of the event is likely to support high levels of GBP volatility and weigh on GBP. "we forecast further GBP/USD depreciation to 1.42 in Q2 2015 and modest EURGBP appreciation towards 0.74 over the next one to two months as political risk premium increases", Said Barclays in a report on Monday

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Europe Manufacturing Activity on a Slow Pace

Markets will focus their attention this week on Greece. A late payment of the IMF loan repayment of €460m on 9 April cannot be ruled out. Greece sent a list of reforms last week in the hope that it will allow the (partial) disbursement of the €7.2bn instalment under the remaining troika tranche. However, it is not sure that there is sufficient agreement for the Eurogroup to meet and decide before the next scheduled meeting (24 April). On the data front, the final estimate of the PMI should slightly disappoint from the flash, yet remaining at levels consistent with solid GDP growth in H1 15. German industrial output and export figures should point to a slow pace of recovery in the manufacturing sector in February although factory orders might suggest some improvement. French Industrial output for February and BoF business sentiment for March should also support the slightly firmer picture of the French economy. "we expect the Swiss headline inflation rate to rise slightly to -0.7% yoy in March, driven by higher oil prices over the past two months", Says Societe Generale.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Rbi Maintains Status Quo on Policy Rates, Further Rate Cuts are Still Likely



It did not come as a surprise that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained status quo on rates in its policy meeting today. The repo rate was kept on hold at 7.50%. This does not indicate an end to monetary policy easing, however; the RBI emphasised in its policy statement that its stance remains accommodative. Also, while the RBI has made the amount and timing of further rate cuts contingent upon four pre-conditions the governor said that "some progress" on these could trigger rate action. The RBI will watch for developments on (1) The transmission of a 50bps reduction YTD in the repo rate, (2) CPI inflation prints, especially after the recent unseasonal rainfall, (3) policy efforts to unclog supply bottlenecks and reduce the pipeline of stalled projects, and (4) the impact of the US Fed's expected interest rate normalisation on financial markets. Standard Chartered says they expect another 50bps reduction in the repo rate to 7.0% in FY16, equally split between the June and August policy meetings. The RBI will, by then, have fresh information on most of its pre-conditions, especially on transmission channels and the impact of weather on the CPI inflation trajectory. Remaining fairly confident that the first 25bps of policy rate reduction will occur by June, the subsequent 25bps reduction may be delayed if the RBI becomes concerned about the impact of the first Fed rate hike. "We see a risk that the last 25bps reduction may not occur if the RBI decides to keep real policy rates at the mid-point of its desired 150-200bps range, instead of at the lower end as we currently assume. We expect CPI inflation to average 5.4% y/y in FY16", Said Standard Chartered in a report on Wednesday

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Japan's February Mor Likely Shrank

Japan will release February machinery orders (MoR) and March PPI inflation on 13 April. The MoR is expected to have declined by 2.0% m/m in February after dropping 1.7% m/m in January. "Exports and industrial production contracted m/m in February partly due to sluggish external demand; we think the MoR will follow a similar trend as it is an indicator of business capex. PPI inflation likely continued slowing in March, to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in February", says Standard Chartered Excluding the sales tax effect, PPI inflation likely dropped by 2.5ppt y/y in March. Prices in the energy sector contracted significantly in the first two months of 2015. The trend is likely to continue in March and put downward pressure on domestic PPI inflation.

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Rbi Continues to Display a Clear Dovish Bias



The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy interest rates unchanged earlier this week, but continues to display a clear dovish bias, as indicated by its comment, that "going forward, the accommodative stance of monetary policy will be maintained, but monetary policy actions will be conditioned by incoming data." The RBI also appears confident in achieving its retail (CPI) inflation target of 6% by early 2016. The bank highlighted that potential upside risks to inflation (ie, weather aberrations, administered price hikes, geo-political factors) are counter-balanced by global deflationary/disinflationary trends, the still soft outlook for global commodity prices and the slack in the domestic economy. "We continue to forecast a 25bp cut in the repo rate in June. We would also not rule out the risk of further easing, but this will depend on greater clarity on 2016 inflation and the impact of a potential Fed rate hike in H2 2015." - Barclays Capital said in a report on Friday

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Swedish Inflation Data in Focus

Swedish inflation (Tuesday) is likely to dominate the agenda for the SEK in the coming week. In line with the projections and recent Riksbank rhetoric, market participants are looking for a further bounce in CPIF inflation to 0.3% m/m (1.1% y/y) from 0.8% m/m (0.9% y/y). Indeed, inflation has recently been surprising to the upside, with Riksbank officials acknowledging that currently easy monetary policy is having an effect. A further increase in inflation is likely to support the SEK against other European currencies such as the EUR and the NOK. "we remain cautious about a sustained SEK rally at this juncture given the Riksbank's recent emphasis on a strong SEK posing downside risks to the inflation outlook. Further ahead, we remain constructive on the SEK owing to positive fundamentals, an improved economic outlook and our expectations for further stabilization in inflation", Says Barclays

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[InstaForex Gertrude]

Us Consumers Likely returned to Shops in March

After dismal private consumption in January and February, partly due to the harsh weather, a rebound is likely in March: retail sales likely to be seen up 0.9% m/m (consensus: 1.0%), boosted by solid car sales, after -0.6% in February. Standard Chartered notes: We see core sales ex autos and gas up 0.4% from -0.2% in February. This should fuel hopes that GDP will rebound in Q2 after hitting a speed bump in Q1. We see the gas-pump savings starting to boost US consumption gradually, many consumers having opted to pay down debt rather than spend on other items so far. We see growth of 1.0% q/q SAAR in Q1, accelerating to 3.0% in Q2.

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