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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 26, 2015
https://forex-images.instaforex.com/...4_usdchfh4.png
Overview: The USD/CHF pair is calling for the bullish market from the levels of 0.9089, 0.9300, and 0.9405 since last week. Nowadays, the level of 0.9405 is representing support 1. Moreover, it should be noticed that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the first support and first resistance which are setting at the 0.9405 and 0.9595 prices respectively. As it is known, the chronicle will probably repeat itself at these levels again. Therefore, as the upward trend is still strong on H4 chart, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.9405 with the first target of 0.9522 (minor resistance on the same chart). It will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.9595 in coming days. Also, we should bear in mind that the strong resistance (0.9595) is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, a stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the stop loss should be placed below the support of 0.9405 at the price of 0.9372.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 27, 2015
Overview: The market of the USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break level of 1.2402. Besides, resistance of the USD/CAD pair broke and turned to support a month ago (26th of January 2015). It should be noted that the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.2402. Hence, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2400/1.2390 with a first target at 1.2533 and continues towards 1.2594 which represents strong resistance on February 27, 2015. However, according to previous events, the price has still traded between 1.2402 and 1.2594. Thereupon, if the trend can break this level and close below the price of 1.2390, then we expect the market to gain a convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. For that reason, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.2594. As the price is below 1.2594, look for further downside with a target of 1.2420.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 02, 2015
When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Besides, the US will release a number of economic reports such as the ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1221.
Strong Resistance:1.1215.
Original Resistance: 1.1204.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1193.
Target Inner Area: 1.1167.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1141.
Original Support: 1.1130.
Strong Support: 1.1119.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1113.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 3, 2015
EUR/USD: This pair is still bearish in outlook, and is not yet able to go upwards significantly, following a strong bearish run that happened at the end of last week. As long as this pair is weak, the USD/CHF (which normally gets negatively correlated to the EUR/USD) would not be able to go downwards. The price is currently between the support line at 1.1150 and the resistance line at 1.1200. The support line is likely to be breached to the downside but the price may be unable to close below it, because the outlook on the EUR is upbeat.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 04, 2015
When the European market opens, economic data on retail sales m/m, the final services PMI, the Italian services PMI, and the Spanish services PMI will be released.The US is expected to release economic data on the Beige Book, crude oil inventories, the ISM mon-manufacturing PMI, the final services PMI, and the ADP non-farm employment change. So, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day amid the reports.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1234.
Strong Resistance:1.1228.
Original Resistance: 1.1217.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1206.
Target Inner Area: 1.1180.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1154.
Original Support: 1.1143.
Strong Support: 1.1132.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1126.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 05, 2015
When the European market opens, economic data on the ECB press conference, minimum bid rate, the French 10-y bond auction, the retail PMI, and the German factory orders m/m are expected to be released. The US will announce the infotmation about natural gas storage, factory orders m/m, revised unit labor costs q/q, the revised nonfarm productivity q/q, unemployment claims, and Challenger job cuts y/y. So, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day amid reports.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1133.
Strong Resistance:1.1127.
Original Resistance: 1.1116.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1105.
Target Inner Area: 1.1079
Inner Buy Area: 1.1053.
Original Support: 1.1042.
Strong Support: 1.1031.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1025.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 9 - 2015
Technical summary: The decline towards an ideal downside target for wave (v) of C continues to unfold as expected. In the short term, we are looking for moving lower towards 129.64 and perhaps even lower towards 128.69 in blue wave iii. As we have seen a series of waves one and two, a series of waves three and four should unfold accordingly. Ideally, a minor resistance at 131.88 is likely to protect the upside from the expected decline towards 129.64
Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 133.90 and will lower our stop to 132.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell EUR near 131.88 with the same stop at 132.45.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 11, 2015
In Asia, Japan will release the PPI y/y and core machinery orders m/m. The US is expected to release some economic data about bank stress test results, the Federal budget balance, and results of 10-year bond auction. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 121.90. Resistance. 2: 121.66. Resistance. 1: 121.42. Support. 1: 121.13. Support. 2: 120.89. Support. 3: 120.65.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 17, 2015
In Asia, Japan will release the results of the BOJ press conference and monetary policy statement. The US is expected to publish economic data about housing starts and building permits. So, there is a big probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 122.07. Resistance. 2: 121.83. Resistance. 1: 121.60. Support. 1: 121.31. Support. 2: 121.07. Support. 3: 120.83.
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of GBP/YEN for March 18, 2015
After release of the BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes, the yen was trading higher against the pound. The cross erased its Monday's gains. It has been consolidating near the fate/fortune level. It's a big day for the US and UK. At the today's Asian session, the pound is trading higher against USD and JPY ahead of crucial big data. The cross is trading in the support zone around 177.95 and 177.80, 200Dema, and 200Dsma respectively. Monthly support is found at 176.70 50Wsma. Weekly resistance is seen at 181.50 and 181.65. The panic will be triggered in case the price closes below 177.80. The cross closes below 50Dsma, so the near and short-term outlooks remain bearish. On a weekly basis, the cross closes below 20Wsma and is trading below it. Until the price closes below 180.50, the bearish view remains in play. Intraday resistance is seen at 179.50. Intraday support is found at 179.60 and 179.10. Trade: selling below 179.60 with targets at 179.10,178.90 and 178.70. Panic below 177.80. Levels to watch- 177.95 177.80 last hope at 177.60. These are valid for this week.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 23, 2015
Technical summary: The decline from 1.4631 (the top of wave iv) has already broken below a low of wave iii at 1.4289 confirming that wave v lower to 1.4079 is unfolding. In the short term, the minor resistance at 1.4340 should protect the upside for a decline towards 1.4079. A break above 1.4340 is going to confuse the picture, but only a break above resistance at 1.4425 is likely to indicate that the bottom is in place.
Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 1.4545 and will move our stop lower to 1.4345. We are late in the decline, but it should be possible to sell near 1.4300 with a stop place at 1.4345 for a decline to 1.4079.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 24, 2015
EUR/USD: This pair moved upwards by 150 pips on Monday, hitting the resistance line at 1.0950 before a shallow pullback. The resistance line would be overcome soon as the market targets another resistance line at 1.1000, which may also be breached easily as the market continues to be strong.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2015
In Asia, Japan is not going to release any economic data. However, the US is expected to publish data on Natural Gas Storage, the flash services PMI, and the number of unemployment claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 119.96.
Resistance. 2: 119.73.
Resistance. 1: 119.49.
Support. 1: 119.20.
Support. 2: 118.97.
Support. 3: 118.73.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2015
Overview: The NZD/USD pair is likely to continue straight from 0.7515. Support at 0.7515 coincides with ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 chart. Additionally, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same level. Therefore, the kiwi shows signs of strength following the break through the highest levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550. So, it is going to be a good sign to buy above the support levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550 with the first target at 0.7603 in order to retest a weekly pivot point and further 0.9636 (it will act as strong resistance, it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that the level to take profit will coincide at 88.2% of Fibonacci at the same time frame). It should be noted that another resistance is set at the level of 0.7696, which represents the double bottom. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level at 0.7550, the market will be led to further decline to 0.7466 in order to indicate the bearish market on March 27, 2015.
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Euro Area Is Gaining Momentum
Recent euro-area data releases have consistently surprised to the upside, adding to evidence that the region's recovery is gaining momentum, according to Standard Chartered research notes. Consumption and net exports are likely to be driving growth in Q1, when GDP growth could reach as high as 0.5% q/q, and the conditions are in place for a sustained investment improvement after a prolonged downturn. The euro-area PMI composite has risen to 54.1 in March, the highest since May 2011. France and Italy remain the weakest major economies, but there are bright spots in both countries, with GDP growth likely to pick up from a dismal Q4-2014 in both cases. Meanwhile, Germany is off to a strong start and is likely to pull along some of its smaller neighbours. German companies are benefitting from a more competitive euro, and across the euro area growth of new orders for goods exports has hit an eight-month high, according to Markit. Consumption is also strengthening. Euro-area retail sales were up 3.7% y/y in January, the strongest annual increase since 2005. Consumer confidence is at the highest level since 2007 on the back of higher real disposable incomes, due to stronger earnings growth, the lower oil price and generally low inflation. Meanwhile Germany's labour market is strong, and immigration and a higher minimum wage should boost consumer spending. Across the euro area unemployment is falling, albeit from high levels in some countries. Bank lending data also point to a more supportive growth environment. The downtrend of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for sales and securitisation) eased further, reaching -0.4% y/y in February. Standard Chartered research forecasts that "this trend will continue and we will very soon see positive y/y growth in loans to corporations. Loans to households, which usually recover earlier than loans to corporations, were up 1% y/y in February, continuing the uptrend that begun around the middle of 2014. Moreover, the third targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) take-up was strong at EUR 97bn, a signal that banks expect demand for loans to pick up. TLTRO loans are particularly helpful for banks in the periphery." Greece, which was one of the best performers in 2014, has deteriorated very fast due to political uncertainty. The key risk for the euro area's recovery remains a sentiment deterioration, either over Greece or eastern Ukraine. Ongoing reform discussions with Greece are reaching a critical stage, with Athens due to run out of money over the next month unless bailout funds are released. In Ukraine, tensions have deescalated since the truce, but the situation remains sensitive
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 30 - 2015
Technical summary We are still looking for a close above the resistance line on the 4-hourly chart to confirm that a series of wave three is developing for a rally towards at least 1.4595. In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.4397 is going to be the first indication that resistance at 1.4495 is likely to be challenged again and a break above here should bring an acceleration higher than we are looking for. Only an unexpected break below support at 1.4287 will confuse the overall bullish picture.
Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.4335 and will place our stop at 1.4275
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Daily analysis of USDX for April 06, 2015
The daily chart continues to show us a corrective phase of the USDX, as the index continues to move in favor of the bearish side but a corrective one as we mentioned above. The next floor or support zone is located at the level of 96.60, where we could expect a rebound to the resistance zone around 98.01. By the way, the bullish outlook is still alive. The USDX started this week with a deep bearish gap, which is now looking for support at the level of 96.54, more than 100 pips of empty zone. Now, the nearest resistance level is located around 97.08, where the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern in order to reach the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. But the Index is still with the downside risk in the short term.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12
Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.19
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.08 / 97.30
H1 chart's support levels: 96.54 / 96.25
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.08, take profit is at 97.30, and stop loss is at 96.85.
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Technical analysis of Silver for April 07, 2015
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has dropped below the level of $17.00 as we discussed and expected earlier. The metal could still be unfolding its counter trend correction and push lower towards $16.00 before resuming rally. It is recommended to remain short with risk at the levels $17.50/60. A drop below $16.60 from here is likely to confirm the same. Immediate support is seen at $16.50/60 followed by $15.80 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $17.80/85 and higher respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control untill prices stay below $17.40/50.
Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop at $17.50/60, target $16.00.
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 08, 2015
Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be supported well around the level of 130.00 for now. The pair is seen to initiate/resume rally higher, and a break above 131.50 is likely to encourage bulls to go forward. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% positions now with risk at 128.50. Immediate support is seen at 128.50 followed by 128.00, 127.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 131.50 followed by 133.00 and higher respectively. Bulls shall look to remain in control untill prices stay above 128.50.
Trading recommendations: Initiate 50% long positions, stop at 128.50, target is open.
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for Gold for April 10, 2015
The yellow metal has been extending its losses for three consecutive days. The US dollar rebounded from the lower levels, which dampened the momentum of the metal. After the FOMC minutes, the metal broke the 50Dsma and closed below that. At the FOMC meeting, several participants judged that economic data and outlook were likely to warrant normalization. However, others anticipated that the effects of lower energy prices and the depressed dollar would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions are unlikely to be appropriate for rates hike until later in the year. A couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook would not call for any increase until 2016. Eventually, the interest rate hike is imminent, but the matter is when it comes true. The interest rate hike has a negative influence on the metal. Today, the metal successfully held the previous day's low at the Asian session. Prices are consolidating at $1,192.00 for a day. Below this, 20Dsma is likely to appear at $1,187.00. The trend-change decider level is found at $1,178.00. In case of a daily close below $1,178.00, the current upswing will be cancelled. Intraday support is found at $1,192.00. We recommend selling below $1,192.00 with immediate target at $1,188.00, below $1,187.00 we can expect $1,180.00 and $1,178.00. The panic is going to be triggered below $1,178.00. In the H4 chart, the price fell below the ascending trend line and closed below that. In the hourly chart, we can observe lower highs and lower lows formation. Until the price closes below $1,206.00, the near term favors bears. Trade: Selling below $1,192.00 targets $1,188.00, $1,180.00 and $1,179.00
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Daily analysis of the USDX
https://forex-images.instaforex.com/.../USDXDaily.png
There is a huge bullish momentum in place on the daily chart, because the USDX is back above the support level of 99.12 now, prepearing for a rally towards the resistance level at 100.51, which is an important one in this time frame. Bulls are strong and we recomment to find bullish patterns at lower time frames to ride this trend.
At the H1 chart, the USDX did an interesting bullish move after two higher high patterns formed on the way. Now, the Index is looking to consolidate above the resistance level of 99.55, in order to reach the psycological level of 100.00 in the nearest term. Also, this view is supported by the current position of the 200 SMA, which is bullish.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 100.51 / 101.95
Dailychart's support levels: 99.12 / 97.83
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.75 / 98.00
H1 chart's support levels: 97.30 / 97.08
Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.51, take profit is at 101.95, and stop loss is at 99.00.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 13, 2015
EUR/USD: This pair is very weak right now, owing to a deep weakness in EUR and a great strength of USD. In fact, EUR is one of the weakest currencies among the majors and so are most EUR pairs. A rally of 400 pips is significant enough to result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern and further plunge is expected this week.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 14, 2015
In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any economic data. But the US will publish data on Business Inventories m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, Core PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 120.51.
Resistance. 2: 120.28.
Resistance. 1: 120.04.
Support. 1: 119.76.
Support. 2: 119.52.
Support. 3: 119.28.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD
https://forex-images.instaforex.com/...pppppDAILY.png
Strong bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (previous weekly low). A significant bullish weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week. Shortly after, an evident bearish pressure was applied around 1.4960-1.5000. This price zone corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci level as well as the previous weekly demand, which was broken back in January 2015. Transient sideways movement with slight bearish tendency has been expressed on the daily chart until bearish breakdown of the daily demand level at 1.4700 took place last week. Projection target for this consolidation breakout would be located around the price level of 1.4440.
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Technical analysis of Crude for April 15, 2015[/B]
CRUDE: Iran Oil minister Bijan Namdar wants to cut OPEC production by 5% to 30mn barrels a day. The OPEC meeting is going ahead in June 05, in Vienna. Today, OPEC secretariat is going to release the monthly market report. This can reveal individual data for countries' oil production the March. The overall OPEC oil production stands at 30.72 million barrels per day in March. We didn't expect OPEC to cut production in the coming June meeting. It's going to be a big thump up. In the context of technical analysis, crude oil gave an upside breakout from the inverse head and shoulder. Parallel resistance is seen at $54.22. A daily close above $54.22 is likely to lead to $57.00, $58.50, and $59.00 in the coming weeks. A break below $47.00 will cancel the view. In the four-hour chart, the higher highs and higher lows formation takes place. Intraday support is found at $53.07 and resistance is seen at $54.22. Weekly resistance is seen at $55.65. In the daily chart, the prices closed above 20, 50 and 100Dsma. It turned me to bullish side. In case of a close above $55.65 100Dema, the price can move towards the given upside targets. On a positional view, we recommend buying between the current market price and $50.00 with sl 47.00 and targets at $55.50, $57.00, $58.00, $59.00, and $62.00. NUTSHEEL In case the price closes above $54.22, it is likely to touch $55.50 and $57.00 In case the price closes above $55.65, it is likely to touch $59.00 and $62.00
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2015
In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any ecnomic data. The US will publish data on Natural Gas Storage, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, and Building Permits. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 119.52.
Resistance. 2: 119.29.
Resistance. 1: 119.05.
Support. 1: 118.78.
Support. 2: 118.54.
Support. 3: 118.30.
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USDX technical analysis for April 17, 2015
The Dollar index continued to show signs of weakness. The price is pulling back down towards last weeks lows at 96.20. Support is being tested now at 97.05 and we should see an upward reversal or a deep correction soon.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 20, 2015
When the European market opens, economic data on German Buba Monthly Report and German PPI m/m are due for release.The US will not publish any economic data. So, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0861.
Strong Resistance:1.0855.
Original Resistance: 1.0844.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0833.
Target Inner Area: 1.0808.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0783.
Original Support: 1.0772.
Strong Support: 1.0761.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0755.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 22, 2015
EUR/USD: The bearish run started on Monday nearly rendered the recent bullish outlook useless, but the price was able to shrug off further bearish sentiment, going above the EMA 56. The recent bullish outlook is supported and further northward movement may lead to more support for the bullish outlook.
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of GBP/USD for April 23, 2015
The Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 8 and 9 April 2015. A fall in energy prices had been the largest single contributor to declines in headline inflation in the United Kingdom and in many other countries since summer 2014. The Committee set monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target in the medium term and in a way that helped to sustain growth and employment. The Committee's guidance on the likely pace and extent of interest rate rises was an expectation, not a promise. Before the general election on May 07, 2015 the BoE officials voted unanimously to keep interest rate at 0.5%. Until the new government has been formed we cannot expect news from the monetary policy committee. Today, traders eye on the UK retail sales. The March readings gave an optimistic look on the retail sale. Technical view: The pound surged against USD towards 50Dsma. At yesterday's session, the cable breached the 50dsma in intraday, but was unable to close above that. The pound is trading at 1.5024 at Thursday's Asia's session; compare to 1.5037 Wednesday's closing. In the four-hour chart, the cable has been making bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern. The price has been trading at the verge of the breakout. At yesterday's session, the cable exactly rejected the upper end of the neckline. In case, if the price taken out the neckline we can expect further bullish bias towards 1.5160 March 18 high initially. Intraday support finds at 1.5010. We recommend selling below 1.5000 with targets at 1.4975 and 1.4940. The 34hrsma finds at 1.4935 below this 1.4850 is the major support for coming days. On the higher side, we recommend buying above 1.5080 with targets at 1.5100, 1.5150, and 1.5160 initially, and at 1.5190 and 1.5210 later.
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 24, 2015
The euro paused its 3-day losing streak gave a strong pullback towards the resistance zone. After the dismissal PMI data, the euro slipped towards 1.0666 made a double bottom at 1.0660 flew to the previous swing high 1.0850. The pair rejected at the resistance level, managed to close at 1.0824. The price has been consolidating 190 pips between 1.0660 and 1.0850. A side breakout is likely to provide room for trade. The double top and double bottom was place between the tight ranges. The soft US data helped the pair to move higher. Developments in Greece helped the euro to strengthen. Greek Prime Minister says "Group of negotiations with Brussels has made "significant progress" will soon reach an agreement for optimism". French and German PMI data was disappointed in April compared to data released in March. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading at 1.0808 against USD compared to the previous day close 1.0824. Ahead of today's major event, the Eurogroup's meeting, the euro is trading lower against USD. Intraday support is found at 1.0800. The support level at 1.0750 is the key driver for today's session. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0790 with targets at 1.0750, 1.0720, 1.0700, and 1.0670. The 61.8 fib expansion level of 1.0865 acts as intraday strong resistance. We recommend buying above 1.0870 with targets at 1.0890, 1.0950, and 1.0990. Whereas, 1.0910 50Ddsma acts as a major hurdle for bulls to cross for the next higher targets. Trade: Buying above 1.0870 Selling below 1.0790
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Technical analysis of Silver for April 27, 2015
Technical outlook and chart setups: Silver had dropped to the level of $15.60 on Friday but it recovered to $15.85 as seen here. The metal produced a bullish morning star pattern on the 4-hour chart view indicating a potential rally ahead. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk below $15.30. Bulls might be poised to drag prices higher until the metal remains above $15.30 from here on. A push through the levels of $16.00 would confirm the same. Immediate support is seen at $15.60 followed by $15.30/40 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.00 followed by $16.40/50, $17.40/50, and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations: Remain long, stop is at $15.30, a target is open.
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for GBP/USD for April 28, 2015
The UK economic weekly calendar started a bit slow. On Monday, the report on monthly CBI industrial trends survey was released. According to the report, the UK manufacturing advanced in three months. But the export orders remains contracted. Today, traders eye the GDP growth rate q/q. The forecast for the Q4 is 0.5%. In the Q3, it dropped to 0.5%. The UK is approaching the next big event. On May 07, 2015, general election should pressure the cable. From an April low of 1.4566 the cable managed to gain approximately 700 pips. The cable managed to close above 100Dema and 100sma. The cable managed to close above 20Wsma after 10months. Ahead of the big event, the FOMC meeting and general election, we expect wild moves. The strong resistance is seen at 1.5440 and 1.5560 200Dsma. The cable has found the weekly support at 1.5200. As we analyzed earlier, big moves are likely to be observed above 1.5000. We recommended to target 1.5185 and 1.5210 on Friday. Both targets were completed. The cable gave a bullish inverse head and shoulder break targeting 1.5340. Intraday view: Intraday support is found at 1.5200 and 1.5190. Resistance is seen at 1.5240 and 1.5270. We recommend buying above 1.5270 with targets at 1.5300 and 1.5340. On the downside, we recommend selling below 1.5190 with targets at 1.5160, 1.5110, and 1.5080. In the four-hour chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.5050 and 50Dsma is found at 1.5020. These are the key support levels to be hold by bulls to extend the rally.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 29, 2015[
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has continued its upward journey moving further up by 110 pips on Tuesday. The bullish signal still has much room to run, and the resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050 are the next targets. The euro is unlikely to lose its stamina in case it happens .
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015
EUR/USD EURO:The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.6% in March 2015 from 4.0% in February 2015. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from January 2015 to March 2015 increased to 4.1%, from 3.8% in the period from December 2014 to February 2015. The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.4% in April 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office also reported that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% on March 2015. Upcoming data: The eurozone macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. Today, traders eye German retail sales data, French consumer spending, Spanish flash CPI on Y/Y, Spanish flash GDP q/q, Germany unemployment change, CPI flash estimate y/y, core CPI flash estimate y/y, and unemployment changes. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. We expect positive data from Germany and Spanish. The euro CPI and unemployment are likely to show positive readings as well. Technical view: The pair has been extending its bullish footprints for five consecutive days. The pair was rejected at 161.8 FE, 1.1191 in the daily chart. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.1188 but closed at 1.1128. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The euro is trading at 1.1115 against USD compared to Wednesday's close price of 1.1128. The pair managed to give a break on the upside in the strong supply zone around 1.1055 and closed above that. The immediate resistance was found at 1.1250 20Wsma. We expect the near-term cap between 1.1250 and 1.1315. As of now, the pair gained 380 pips with our correction. In case the price breaches above 1.1250 2Dsma, another strong resistance zone will be found at 1.1300 and 1.1315 10Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 100 to 150 pips on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1250 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling. Intraday view:Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1191 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.1250. Intraday support is found at 1.1110 and 1.1067. Today and tomorrow's trading pattern is framed between 1.1030 and 1.1250. Either side break will provide further room to trade aggressively. The previous supply zone at 1.1030 and 1.1055 is currently acting as a support zone. For risky traders we recommend selling with sl 1.1129 for targets at 1.1070 and 1.1050. Panic will be triggered below 1.1030. In case German and European data print positive readings, we will recommend buying above 1.1130 with targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230 whereas 1.1250 is the crucial trend-change level on a weekly closing basis. Trade: Selling with sl 1.1129 Buying above 1.1130
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 05, 2015
In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. The US will publish some macroeconomic reports such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and Trade Balance. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 120.78. Resistance. 2: 120.55. Resistance. 1: 120.31. Support. 1: 120.02. Support. 2: 119.79. Support. 3: 119.54.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 06, 2015
In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some macroeconomic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Yellen Speech, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 120.59.
Resistance. 2: 120.36.
Resistance. 1: 120.12.
Support. 1: 119.84.
Support. 2: 119.61.
Support. 3: 119.36.
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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for May 11, 2015
The new week starts with a big event, the Eurogroup's meeting. The Finance Minister of Germany expected difficulties in reaching an agreement on Greece within today's Eurogroup's meeting. But the Greek government expects progress in negotiation with Greece lenders. After today's big event, major economic data fall on Wednesday. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q, French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts due. Wednesday is another big data for this pair. We expect the German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France are likely to be stagnant. Technical view:The pair was unchanged over the previous week. The pair has been developing the technical bullish signs for 4 consecutive weeks. The divergence between the ECB and Fed favors the long-term bearish view for this pair. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma after 52 weeks. Last week, the pair rejected at weekly parallel resistance of 1.3997 and made a high at 1.3992. The pair fell and closed below 100Dema& 100Dsma.On Friday's session, the pair rejected exactly at 100Dsma. Until the pair closes below 1.1300 100Dsma, bulls will be losing the grip. The parallel support is found at 1.1175; below this 1.1145 is another minor support. The strong bullish support base is found at 1.1050. Until the pair closes above 1.1030, bullish view remains in play. The near term will be capped, in case the price closes below 1.1050. The lower low formation will be launched in case the event takes place. The daily chart indicates the weekly trading pattern framed between 1.1300 and 1.1050. Further bullish will re-ignite in case the price closes above 1.1300. The real panic will be triggered below 1.1030 towards 1.0890. In case the price closes above 1.1300, it can skyrocket towards 1.1397 and 1.1475, whereas 1.1392 is median resistance. Negative divergence has been developing in the daily chart. Intraday view: In the hourly and four-hour chart, the price was closed and trading below the hourly moving averages 34hrsma. In the H1 chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.1225, until the price remains below 34hrsma, bearish view is likely to move towards 1.1150, 1.1110, and 1.1100. We expect 1.1050 and 1.1030 as well in a day or two. Bulls are strengthening looms above 1.1230 with minor upside possibility at 1.1250, 1.1275, and 1.1300. The real strength is seen only above 1.1300 towards 1.350, a previous high of 1.1392 and 1.1475. Trade: Selling below 1.1175 buying above 1.1230
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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations
Overview: On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established. Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established. As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5. Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when the further bearish pullback occurs. On the other hand, the current price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 is a critical resistance zone to be watched for signs of bearish reversal and a possible sell entry if enough bearish pressure is applied.
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EUR/USD Rebound For June 01 (Weekly Strategy)
Technical summary: We think the best way to count the price action since the top of 1.5247 is that an expanded flat is unfolding. In this case one final decline to just below 1.4913 should be seen before the next strong rally higher. In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.5221 and more importantly a break below 1.5104 will confirm the decline to the territory below 1.4913 before the next impulsive rally is expected. That means we have to be aware that there is a small risk that the correction in wave (ii) ended with a wave c failure at 1.4970 and the next impulsive rally is already unfolding for a continuation higher towards at least 1.6335. Trading recommendation: We will wait for a EUR-buying opportunity around 1.4913.
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