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XAU/USD H4 | Falling to support
The XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) chart suggests a potential bearish scenario with a focus on continuing towards the support levels. Here are the key support and resistance levels:
Resistance Levels:
The 1st resistance level at 2058.27 is identified as "An Overlap resistance." This level may act as a significant barrier to further upward movement in the price of gold.
The 2nd resistance level at 2077.23 is also labeled as "An Overlap resistance." It represents another level where selling pressure could potentially emerge and limit any bullish momentum.
Support Levels:
The 1st support level at 2038.74 is marked as "Pullback support." This level could attract buying interest and serve as a potential area of price reversal or consolidation.
The 2nd support level at 2016.85 is identified as "An Overlap support." It represents another important support zone where traders might consider entering long positions.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 17, 2024
AUD/USD
The pair lost 75 pips yesterday and broke the support levels of the target level of 0.6612 and the MACD line. The next target will be 0.6547. However, risk appetite may surge after the release of inflation data from the eurozone, and retail sales and industrial production reports from the US.
The dip below the supports may turn out to be false, and growth may continue above 0.6693. If upcoming data also turns out weaker than expected, AUD/USD will head towards 0.6514/47.
On the four-hour chart, no clear signs could be seen of either a continuation of the decline or a reversal. Usually, the pair would continue to fall, but market sentiment appears to be changing. Commodities and stock indices may also grow.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 18, 2024
USD/JPY
The pair demonstrated strong growth in the past three days and even reached the target level of 148.35 yesterday. At this point, the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart indicated a reversal.
It remains uncertain whether the pair will fall into a correction or a medium-term decline. Nevertheless, growth will halt at 149.30 (price channel line on the weekly chart) and 149.72 (target level determined by the peaks of November 22-24). In the case of a correction, the pair will find support at the MACD line and the level of 146.24. Consolidation below this level will lead to a decline towards the target levels indicated on the chart.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows the beginning of a reversal, while the MACD line, which the price must overcome to confirm its intention, remains downward. The decline of the pair will not be rapid (in the form of a triangle), and this will allow the MACD line to approach the price.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 19, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, on the daily chart, the British pound opened and closed the day above the balance indicator line (red). This indicates that the balance of power has shifted towards buying, and the price has settled above this line.
The Marlin oscillator is still in the downtrend territory, but it is getting weaker, and the price still needs to overcome the resistance level at 1.2745 to decisively defeat the bears. It is likely that a break above 1.2745 and the oscillator transitioning into the positive territory will occur simultaneously. Exchange Rates 19.01.2024 analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Marlin has already entered the growth territory. It is important for the price to break above the resistance of the MACD line (1.2715), which is currently being held back by the balance line. Considering these factors, the price may be able to overcome visible obstacles and continue to rise. The target is 1.2826, which is the high from December 28th.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 22, 2024
EUR/USD
The markets reaffirmed their commitment to risk-taking on Friday, with the S&P 500 setting a new all-time high, a level not seen since January 2022. The US dollar index fell by 0.24%, while the euro gained a modest 22 pips. However, we do not expect risk appetite to persist, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Taiwan. A market downturn could occur suddenly and significantly at that.
At the moment, the euro is trying to break through the resistance at 1.0905 and along with it the balance indicator line, which would open the way for the price to reach the target levels of 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the high from April 14, 2023). The Marlin oscillator has gained strength on the daily timeframe, moving towards the border of the uptrend territory.
On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the bullish territory. The only thing left to do is for the price to settle above 1.0905, which would also be a move above the MACD indicator line, and then the price could continue to rise.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 23, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the main event was that traders saw a higher probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rate at the March meeting to 58.4%. The speeches of FOMC representatives finally had an effect. As a result, the dollar index increased by 0.08%, and the euro fell by 15 points.
The price rebound occurred at the intersection point of the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe with the target level of 1.0905. The local decline is supported by the MACD line around the level of 1.0853 on the daily timeframe. A consolidation below this level will allow the price to move towards 1.0825 and even 1.0730, which is the embedded price channel line and the target level.
A consolidation above 1.0905 will open the way towards the target of 1.1033. This is the main scenario. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in a sideways neutral movement. Tomorrow, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8 compared to December's 44.4. The US Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise, reaching 48.0 compared to 47.9 in December. This likely indicates a recovery in risk appetite.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 30, 2024
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair once again tested the resistance level at 148.35 and forcefully moved downwards toward the support level at 146.24, just below which lies the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is decreasing. If the price consolidates below 146.24, it will signal the start of a medium-term decline in the pair, possibly below 140.27.
US government bond yields turned lower on Monday.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance indicator line, and the MACD line is turning downwards.
We are seeing signs of a new downward trend being formed. The Marlin oscillator made a false breakout into the positive territory (marked by a rectangle), afterwards it returned to the downtrend territory. We are awaiting the price at the first target level of 146.24.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 5, 2024
EUR/USD
Last Friday, the US employment data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the currency market. US nonfarm payroll employment far exceeded expectations of 157,000, with an increase of 353,000 in January. Not only that, but December's figures were revised upward by 117,000. According to federal funds rates, the market probability of maintaining the current Federal Reserve rate at 5.50% in the March meeting has increased from 62% to 80%, and the likelihood of a rate cut in May rose from 58% to 60%. The yield on 5-year US government bonds rose from 3.82% to 3.98%. The S&P 500 stock index jumped by 1.07%, but the euro lacked the decisiveness to follow suit, dropping by 85 pips. Oil and gold also fell.
The euro still has a chance to turn higher, but it needs to rebound from the support level. The nearest support is the price channel line on the daily chart at 1.0748. Just below it is the level of 1.0730. If the price does not turn from there, the price could aim for 1.0632. There is also support at the lower boundary of the wedge, which has already been tested this morning but appears weak.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Probably a short-term continuation of the downward movement.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2024
EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro fell by 44 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0730 with the lower shadow of the daily candle. The price surpassed the lower border of the green price channel, and the channel is no longer relevant.
Now, after overcoming the level of 1.0730, which the price has reached, the euro may continue to fall to the next target at 1.0632. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly bent upwards, which may indicate a minor correction from the support it reached before it falls further.
On the 4-hour chart, the price consolidates above the support level. Marlin is discharging before a possible new wave of decline. We are waiting for the price to consolidate below 1.0730 and move towards the designated level of 1.0632 – the low of September 14, 2023, and the low of May 31.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2024
EUR/USD
The market started a corrective move on Tuesday. Even the S&P 500, which lost 0.32% on Monday, rebounded by 0.23% yesterday. We do not expect a strong correction since this week's economic calendar does not include any significant economic data. The euro's correction will look like a consolidation above the level of 1.0730, approaching the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel on the daily timeframe. If the price settles below 1.0730, it will open the target at 1.0632.
The price needs to do a lot to reverse the entire movement, including breaking above the MACD line, i.e., approaching 1.0905. Therefore, in the current situation, we are simply waiting for the sideways movement to end. The price could rise above 1.0905 if the stock market continues to set new historical records. However, this will eventually stop.
On the 4-hour chart, a small convergence has formed. The bullish target is the MACD line around the 1.0790 mark. Staying above the line will make it possible for the price to rise to 1.0825.
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USD/CHF H4 | Bearish Drop
For USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc), there's a potential bearish reversal scenario indicated by the following key levels:
Resistance Levels:
The 1st resistance level at 0.87435 is identified as "An Overlap resistance," suggesting a significant barrier where selling pressure could intensify, potentially leading to a reversal in the price trend.
The 2nd resistance level at 0.88069 is described as "Multi-swing high resistance," indicating another level where sellers might be active, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Support Levels:
The 1st support level at 0.86865 is recognized as "An Overlap support," implying a level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing a floor for the price decline.
The 2nd support level at 0.86399 is noted as "Pullback support," suggesting another area where buyers could enter the market, potentially limiting further downward movement.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 9, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro attempted a bearish breakthrough but quickly returned to the initial positions, ending the day with a 5-point gain. We're waiting for progress, probably until the 13th, which is when the US inflation data for January will be released.
Technically, the waiting mode is working in a downward vector, as it brings it closer to the upper boundary of the descending price channel. With the Marlin oscillator in negative territory, there is a higher chance that the price could fall from this level. Overcoming the support at 1.0724 will be a crucial condition for such a decline. The nearest target is 1.0632.
On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's downturn occurred from the MACD line. This line stopped the price from returning. Marlin is currently in the positive territory, but this may not last long. For a bullish breakthrough, the price must consolidate with yesterday's high at 1.0789, which is also slightly above the MACD line. The bulls are aiming for 1.0825.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 12, 2024
EUR/USD
After a reversal from the support at 1.0724, the euro continues to rise for the 5th day towards the target level of 1.0825, which is near the upper band of the local descending channel on the daily scale.
The bodies of the observed white candles are small, indicating an apparent corrective nature of this growth. If the price manages to consolidate above the MACD line (1.0876), the bulls will have a basis to support a stronger rise, for instance, into the range of 1.0966-1.1001. The Marlin oscillator is still developing in negative territory, although its rise is fast.
We are also keeping an eye on the S&P 500 stock index, which reached the target level of 5028 on Friday, and there is a risk of a reversal from this level. If it continues to rise, the next target will be the upper boundary of the global hyperchannel in the target range of 5101.50-5120.00, where the risk of a reversal will increase significantly.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 13, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro did not reach its target of 1.0825, hindered by investors' flight from risk in the broader market; the S&P 500 lost 0.09% (although overall, stock markets closed mixed), and the yield on US government bonds edged down slightly.
Perhaps the single currency will not rise further, say, to 1.10. Currently, the euro is falling within a medium-term descending channel, staying below the balance and MACD indicator lines with a declining Marlin oscillator. If the price hits the nearest target of 1.0724, consolidates below it, then the euro will continue to fall to the second target of 1.0632 – to the low of September 14, 2023. We expect the pair to continue its downward movement.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD line but currently feels uncertain there, as the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the growth territory. Perhaps it will do so when the price surpasses yesterday's low of 1.0757.
Today, the US will release figures for its February's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the main agenda of the day, as this may influence the Federal Reserve's attitude toward monetary policy.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2024
EUR/USD
The euro continues to closely follow the movements of the stock market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index corrected from Tuesday's decline, showing a 0.96% increase. We outlined our main points in yesterday's review, so today, we are taking a wait-and-see position.
On the daily chart, the euro has shown moderate growth in the upper half of the descending price channel both yesterday and this morning. A small convergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator. Apparently, traders are not in a hurry to anticipate events, so the convergence will guide the euro into sideways movement, slightly above the support at 1.0724, where the price may gather strength to show a firm downward movement.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has already managed to consolidate above the level of 1.0724, but it is noticeably below the MACD indicator line (1.0768). Overcoming this line will allow the price to test the upper boundary of the daily price channel (1.0790). Only a break above the channel will postpone the euro's decline for an indefinite period.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 16, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, under the influence of the stock market (S&P 500 0.58%) and its own convergence, the euro rose by 44 pips. The upper boundary of the descending price channel at 1.0790 is nearby. A break above the channel will open the nearest target level at 1.0825. Then, assuming that the stock market will continue to rise, the euro may attempt to reach the MACD indicator line at 1.0868 on the daily chart.
The stock market needs to rise by 0.39% to reach its record high set on February 12. If it manages to do so, it may rise by another 1.04% to reach the upper boundary of the global growing price channel since 2009. But we wouldn't count on the euro's growth until the S&P sets a new record high. If the euro breaks the support at 1.0724, the bears may try to bring the quote to the target level of 1.0632. We are waiting for progress.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has risen above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has settled on its rising half. However, the main obstacle is the upper boundary of the price channel (1.0790), and it is quite difficult to overcome this while we're facing a downward trend. Perhaps the main events will unfold next week. And if you look at such a tool as cyclic lines on the daily chart, you can see a reversal moment on Monday.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 19, 2024
EUR/USD
Last Friday, due to the decline in the stock market, the euro failed to develop a full-fledged upward movement, closing the day up by 5 pips. This morning, the euro is trying to rise without external influence, but technically, the price has reached the intersection point of the upper boundary of the descending price channel and the cyclical line, from which a bearish trend reversal is expected. Also, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the border of the uptrend territory, and a reversal may occur from this line.
Thus, the main scenario is the euro will fall through the nearest support at 1.0724 to the target level of 1.0632. Possibly even lower, to the lower boundary of the price channel, around the target level of 1.0440 (the 2023 low). If the price breaks above the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.0793, the channel will be invalidated, and the price will continue to rise to the nearest target level of 1.0825 with the goal of attacking the MACD line around the 1.0870 mark.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and Marlin is growing in the positive territory after bouncing off the zero line. The growth seems deceptive, especially since the stock market has not yet come into play. If the price returns below the MACD line (1.0763), this may bring back the bearish scenario. Today, the US and Canadian markets are closed for a holiday.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 20, 2024
EUR/USD
The euro is starting to form a bearish reversal exactly along the cyclical line with a period of 9 daily bars. The upper line of the descending price channel is still undeveloped, but this option is also acceptable during reversals.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is also turning down without reaching the zero line, but at the same time it is sensitive to the upper resistance line. The final confirmation that the euro will fall is when the price breaches the support at 1.0724. After that, the target will be 1.0632.
On the 4-hour chart, the first signal for a downward movement is when the price falls below the MACD line (1.0763). It is very likely that at this moment, the Marlin oscillator will enter the downtrend territory. This will be a good pattern for creating the momentum to reach the support at 1.0724.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 21, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the price surpassed the resistance of the target level at 1.2610, as well as both indicator lines. Afterward, it retreated, and the pound closed the day with a 29-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator entered the growth territory.
However, as long as the price doesn't settle above the MACD line (1.2640), there is a high probability of a reversal from the resistance levels it reached. Marlin can also turn down from the zero line. If the price consolidates below 1.2610, the target will be 1.2524. Consolidating above 1.2640 will allow the price to rise to the level of 1.2745 – the peak of August 30, 2023.
The price has covered a distance of 50 pips from yesterday's high to its current quote, approaching the support at 1.2610. A break below will make it possible to attack the MACD line in the 4-hour chart (1.2590). Consolidating below it opens the target level at 1.2524.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 21, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the price surpassed the resistance of the target level at 1.2610, as well as both indicator lines. Afterward, it retreated, and the pound closed the day with a 29-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator entered the growth territory.
However, as long as the price doesn't settle above the MACD line (1.2640), there is a high probability of a reversal from the resistance levels it reached. Marlin can also turn down from the zero line. If the price consolidates below 1.2610, the target will be 1.2524. Consolidating above 1.2640 will allow the price to rise to the level of 1.2745 – the peak of August 30, 2023.
The price has covered a distance of 50 pips from yesterday's high to its current quote, approaching the support at 1.2610. A break below will make it possible to attack the MACD line in the 4-hour chart (1.2590). Consolidating below it opens the target level at 1.2524.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound only rose by 15 pips, but it accomplished an important task for the bulls - it consolidated above the level of 1.2610. So now it is much easier to overcome the MACD line. It will succeed once the price overcomes the February 20th peak (1.2667). After that, the next target will be 1.2745.
The Marlin oscillator is stable in the uptrend territory and it continues to rise further. A reversal below 1.2610 will be a sign of the bulls' weakness, despite all the positive signs that it received.
On the 4-hour chart, we can see a consolidation above 1.2610 while the price is struggling with the MACD line on the daily timeframe. The Marlin oscillator moved up in the bullish territory. But once the price overcomes the support of the MACD line (1.2592), this will confirm a bearish breakthrough and it will mark the bears' victory in the current situation.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 23, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the composite PMI index for the UK increased to 53.30 in February from 52.90 in January of 2024. The British pound, also influenced by external markets, gained 22 pips. The intraday growth was 74 pips, but the price could not break out of the grids of the indicator lines in the daily timeframe.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive territory, but visually it is getting weaker. In order to rise to the nearest target of 1.2745, the price must close today with a white candle to settle above the MACD line. To realize the opposite scenario, the quote must overcome the support of 1.2610. We are waiting for Monday.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled and is rising above both indicator lines. However, the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally, in a sideways range. The uptrend is getting weaker, and it is better to wait for the start of next week.
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FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR AUD/USD ON FEBRUARY 26, 2024
AUD/USD
A reversal started in AUD/USD after the test of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator moving towards the positive area also reflects this scenario. Most likely, the pair will decline when the price drops below the support level of 0.6504 and head towards 0.6410.
On the four-hour chart, the fall below the MACD line and 0.6542 indicates an impending downward movement. The Marlin oscillator also turned downward.
Today, data on new home sales in the US will be released, with an expected growth of 2.41%. If the data turns out to be weaker than expected, stock indices will decline and, along with them, AUD/USD.
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FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR EUR/USD ON FEBRUARY 27, 2024
EUR/USD
S&P500 decreased by 0.38%, while the dollar index declined by 0.20%, thanks to a slight increase in government bond yields. Investors also expressed some confusion over the lack of agreements in Congress on the budget, which could lead to another partial government shutdown (starting from March 1). If the shutdown occurs, it will not necessarily lead to an automatic decline in dollar. Most likely, it will strengthen in the medium term as a safe-haven currency amid the decline in stock markets.
On the daily chart, yesterday's rise in euro halted because of the balance line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also turned downward slightly. If the price settles below 1.0825, the pair will move towards 1.0724. EUR/USD faces obstacles not only from the indicator lines but also from the target level of 1.0905. It needs to successfully surpass the level to continue the movement towards the target level of 1.1001 (peak on January 11).
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator continues to experience pressure and may soon shift downward. However, the price remains above the indicator lines, so the pair may not decline yet. A downward move will occur only when the price settles below the support at 1.0825 and falls under the MACD line support at 1.0806, which coincides with the peak from February 12.
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FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR EUR/USD ON FEBRUARY 28, 2024
EUR/USD
Euro's situation did not change even though the indicators on the daily chart maintained their positions. The price continues to test its strength in both upward and downward movements, leaning towards the downside. This indicates a potential breach of the support level at 1.0825, where a consolidation below the level will likely bring the pair to the target level of 1.0724.
Weak data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence in the US came out, but dollar did not decline. Further movement will depend on the upcoming GDP data for the 4th quarter, which forecasts say will remain unchanged at 3.3%.
On the four-hour chart, the price appears to be heading towards the balance line. It will test the support level of 1.0825 along with the movement. The MACD line (1.0814) lies slightly below the level.
Without external assistance, such as a decline in stock indices, euro will find it difficult to cross the support levels in a single day. Currently, it has only one ally - the Marlin oscillator, which already arrived at the area of a downward trend.
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FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR EUR/USD ON FEBRUARY 29, 2024
EUR/USD
On Wednesday, the euro made a strong attempt to break below the support level of 1.0825, but, as we anticipated in yesterday's overview, it did not succeed in just a day. Nevertheless, it made an attempt, and speculative interest is clear. We expect another attack on the aforementioned support level. Traders could receive external help – yesterday, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.17%, and in today's Asia Pacific session, the S&P/ASX200 is losing 0.16%.
On Wednesday, U.S. lawmakers, for the fourth time, agreed to extend funding for some government agencies for a week, through March 8, and the rest for another two weeks, until March 22. Obviously, they will be able to approve the final allocation of $1.7 trillion even if they fail to do so in March.
We're waiting for the price to settle below the level of 1.0825 to confirm the market's choice in pushing the pair towards 1.0724. An alternative scenario, suggesting growth above 1.0905, will begin to develop after the price overcomes the resistance of the MACD line (1.0874).
On the 4-hour chart, yesterday, the price failed to settle below the MACD line, rising back above the red balance line. The Marlin oscillator is in its lower half, indicating a predominantly downward trend. In order to support the decline, the price needs to settle below the 1.0817 mark.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 1, 2024
The GBP/USD pair has breached a short-term supply zone, hinting at bullish momentum with a potential move toward the 1.2691 level. A mix of buy and sell signals from technical indicators and moving averages suggest a market in consolidation, awaiting a decisive breakout. Sentiment has shifted slightly towards bears in the last three days, despite a generally bullish stance over the past week. The GBP/USD pair has recently demonstrated a bullish inclination, successfully breaching the short-term supply zone. A sustained move above the 100-day moving average (MA) suggests potential for further upward momentum. However, the pair is currently consolidating gains, indicating a pivotal moment for traders as the market seeks direction.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on March 4, 2024
The GBP/USD currency pair may move upward from the level of 1.2649 (closing of Friday's daily candle) to 1.2680, the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Then, from the said level, a continued upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2708 (yellow dotted line).
Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – up; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.2649 (closing of Friday's daily candle) to 1.2680, the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Then, from the said level, a continued upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2708 (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2649 (closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may move upward to 1.2680, the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Then, a downward movement may occur with a target of 1.2663, the 23.6 % pullback level (yellow dotted line)
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 5, 2024
Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to test the historical support level at 1.0836 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise. Alternatively, from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward to test the 76.4% pullback level at 1.0842 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 6, 2024
The EUR/USD currency pair may move downward from the level of 1.0855 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0842, the 76.4% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.0888 (blue dotted line).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis for March 6th. The dollar is on the verge of a new decline
The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Over the past year, we have seen only three-wave structures of a larger scale that constantly alternate with each other. Currently, the construction of another three-wave structure is continuing - a downtrend that began on July 18 of last year. The presumed wave 1 is complete; wave 2 or b has become more complex three or four times but is now also complete as the decline of the pair has been ongoing for more than two months.
Alternatively, wave analysis may become significantly more complicated. The exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair rose by 15 basis points on Wednesday. Every day I say the same thing: market activity is currently so low that all price changes can be ignored. In addition to low market activity, the pair has been in a horizontal movement between Fibonacci levels 76.4% and 61.8% for over two weeks. Wave 2 in 3 or c may take on a three-wave form, implying a breakthrough of the 1.0881 mark. If this happens, the American currency may depreciate even more. However, there is no need to worry about this. Correctional waves often take on a three-wave form, so it can be said that everything is going according to plan.
Today, as well as Thursday and Friday, will be crucial for the American currency. In a couple of hours in America, reports on job vacancies and the number of new employees in the non-agricultural sector will be released, and Jerome Powell will speak in the US Congress. Tomorrow is another Powell speech, and the day after tomorrow is the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports. And this is not counting the ECB meetings and Christine Lagarde's speeches. Everything indicates that the last three working days of the week should be fiery.
For the current wave analysis to be preserved, at least not all of these events should increase demand for the euro. If at least half of the reports favor the dollar, and Lagarde and Powell do not change their previously voiced rhetoric, the dollar may depreciate within the wave plan. And then move on to building wave 3 in 3 or c. If this wave starts today or tomorrow, I'm fine with that too. I continue to consider only selling the pair.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD review and analysis: Gold looks poised for further gains
For eight consecutive days, the price of gold has been gaining strong positive momentum. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates in June are keeping bulls on the U.S. dollar on the defensive and are a key factor directing flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic problems in China provide support to this safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari played down rumors of a more aggressive policy easing. This, in turn, prompted a modest rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and helped limit the potential decline of the dollar. However, tense conditions on the daily chart are currently preventing traders from entering new bullish positions ahead of the NFP report, which will be released today during the American session. From a technical perspective, the recent breakthrough above the $2,100 mark is considered a key trigger for the bulls.
Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart already indicates overbought conditions. Therefore, before preparing for the continuation of the established short-term upward trend, it would be prudent to wait for some short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback. Nevertheless, gold seems poised for further growth towards the psychological $2,200 mark. On the flip side, corrective declines can be viewed as an opportunity to buy, with a limited figure of around $2,100. This mark is a turning point that, in the case of a decisive breakthrough, could push the price of gold back to the $2,065 level. Some subsequent sales may imply that the XAU/USD pair might shift the balance in favor of bears.
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Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on March 11, 2024
Open trading account Open demo account Deposit money Money withdrawal Open trading account Open demo account Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The GBP/USD currency pair may move downward from the level of 1.2855 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). From there, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2892 (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – up; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.2855 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). From there, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2892 (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2855 (closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may move downward to the 23.6% pullback level at 1.2804 (yellow dotted line). From there, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2892 (yellow dotted line).
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Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD
The test of 1.2831 took place at a time when the MACD line moved downward from zero. This provoked a sell signal, which led to a price decrease of around 30 pips. The pair reached the target level of 1.2805.
Buying from this level for a rebound did not yield the expected results. Data on the UK's jobless claims, unemployment rate, and average earnings will come out today. The last indicator attracts the most attention, as a sharp decrease will weaken the position of pound, leading to a decline in the pair.
For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2829 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2857 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur only after good and strong data on the UK labor market. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it.
Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2804, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2829 and 1.2857. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2804 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2770. Pressure will return after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the local high. When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.
Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2829, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2804 and 1.2770. What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market.
Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on March 13, 2024
Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.2789 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the historical resistance level at 1.2847 (blue dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2789 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move upward to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a downward movement is possible to the historical resistance level at 1.2772 (blue dotted line).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. March 14th. The UK GDP provided positive results, but traders have taken a new break
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair traded exclusively horizontally on Wednesday. It traded in the range of 1.2788–1.2801. There were no advantages for either bears or bulls on Wednesday, and neither category of traders attempted to take active action during the day. Thus, the zone of 1.2788–1.2801 cannot currently be considered a source of trading signals. The pair failed to rebound from it or consolidate above it.
The wave situation has been clear recently. The bulls have launched an active offensive, and we have already seen three consecutive upward waves. The last upward wave managed to break through the previous peak from February 22nd, so there are currently no signs of a trend change to "bearish." The sideways movement seems to be over since the pound has risen above all the peaks of the past few months. However, the risk of a resumption of sideways movement remains if bears launch their offensive from current levels. The last downward wave is too weak compared to the previous upward wave. The pair needs to decline at least to the level of 1.2584 to show the first sign of a trend change to "bearish." Alternatively, the new upward wave should not break the peak on March 8th. On Wednesday, the GDP volume for January was announced in the UK. The British economy grew by 0.2%, as traders expected. Industrial production decreased by 0.2% in volume, which was below market expectations. However, the first report did not help the pound resume its growth, and the second report did not provide sufficient grounds for bears to launch an offensive. There were no significant events in America yesterday. Today, we expect several reports from the US, but trader activity is currently extremely low, so I do not expect strong exchange rate fluctuations.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2745), which allows us to count on further growth towards the level of 1.3044. The pound has risen very strongly over the past few weeks, practically without informational support. The strength of the bulls may be waning. There are no emerging divergences observed in any of the indicators today. A rebound of quotes from the level of 1.2745 may increase the pair's chances of continuing to rise, but a consolidation below this level will work in favor of the US dollar and improve the chances of bears.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. March 15th. The bears have launched a long-awaited offensive
The EUR/USD pair made a new reversal in favor of the American currency on Thursday and resumed its downward movement after closing below the ascending trend channel. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue down to the Fibonacci level of 38.2%–1.0866. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will benefit the European currency and may lead to some growth towards the corrective level of 50.0%–1.0918. Consolidation of quotes below 1.0866 will increase the pair's chances of further decline towards the next corrective level of 23.6%–1.0801.
The wave situation remains quite clear. The last completed upward wave confidently broke the peak of the previous wave (from February 22). Thus, we currently have a "bullish" trend, and there are no signs of its completion. Currently, a new downward wave is beginning to form but to determine a shift in sentiment to "bearish," a breakthrough of zone 1.0785–1.0801 is required. Until this moment, we observe only a corrective wave, after which the "bullish" trend may resume. The waves are currently quite large, but daily trader activity is not at its highest level. I believe that the support zone of 1.0785–1.0801 is a good target for traders. The news background on Thursday was interesting. We learned that retail sales volumes in the US turned out to be slightly below market expectations, but at the same time, the Producer Price Index surged by 0.6% in February, which does not bode well for the US economy as inflation may continue to rise, as it did in February. However, such a value is positive for the American currency, as the Fed may now adhere to a hawkish policy longer than traders expect. At the same time, the ECB may start easing monetary policy as early as June.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trader recommendations: Sales of the pair were possible upon a rebound from the level of 1.0959 on the 4-hour chart, with targets at 1.0918 and 1.0866. The first target has been hit, and the second one may be hit today. New sales are possible upon closing below the level of 1.0866 with a target of 1.0801. Buying the pair is possible upon a rebound from the level of 1.0866 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.0918 and 1.0959. Or upon a rebound from the lower line of the channel on the 4-hour chart.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 18, 2024
Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0887 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) to 1.0917, the 50% pullback level (red dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible with a target of 1.0939, the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.0887 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick), the price may move downward to 1.0871, the 38.2% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, an upward movement is possible to 1.0917, the 50% pullback level (red dotted line).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 19th. Ahead of the Fed meeting
The GBP/USD pair broke out of the flat and attempted to resume the uptrend. But we still expect a resumption of the downward movement with targets at 1.2543 and 1.2512. The market still very reluctantly buys the dollar and sells the pound, completely ignoring the fundamental and macroeconomic background. This week, it can easily interpret the received information in favor of the pound, even if it is in favor of the dollar. Formally, long positions can be considered when the price is above the moving average, but now the long-awaited consolidation below the moving average has occurred. Therefore, we support any sales of the pair. Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal towards the opposite direction is approaching.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on March 20
Higher Timeframes During the previous trading session, bearish players reached and were able to test the crucial milestone of 1.0839, which consolidated several significant levels across different timeframes. However, the day's outcome was once again fixed within the attraction zone of 1.0876 – 1.0862. As a result, the primary task for bearish players remained the same. New bearish targets and plans can only emerge after bearish players manage to overcome the supports at 1.0876 – 1.0862 – 1.0839 and consolidate below. For bullish players, the benchmarks remain unchanged, situated around 1.0909 – 1.0915 – 1.0918 (daily short-term trend + upper boundaries of the daily and weekly Ichimoku clouds).
H4 – H1 On lower timeframes, a corrective upward movement is currently unfolding, with the weekly long-term trend (1.0895) serving as the main reference point. It should be noted that the key level of lower timeframes today is positioned above the current zone of influence of higher timeframes, so a breakthrough and trend reversal could align with the possibilities of higher timeframes, creating good conditions for changing the current balance of power. The next targets for the upward movement within the day will be the resistances of the classic pivot points R2 (1.0901) and R3 (1.0925). The development of bearish sentiments within the day in the current situation may involve passing through the supports of classic pivot points (1.0859 – 1.0841 – 1.0817 – 1.0799). ***
H4 – H1 The main advantage on lower timeframes currently continues to favor bearish players. Targets for resuming the decline within the day today are located at the levels of 1.2705 – 1.2679 – 1.2640 – 1.2614 (classic pivot points). However, if the current corrective upward movement persists, then for a change in the current balance of power, bullish players must break through and reverse the weekly long-term trend (1.2746). Afterward, they will encounter resistances of classic pivot points (1.2770 – 1.2809), reinforced by resistances from higher timeframes (1.2755-79). *** The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on March 21
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further growth became limited because the test of 1.0857 occurred during the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. Then, a good market movement arose after the Fed's decision, bringing around 50 pips of profit. The Fed said they would stick to their path of reducing interest rates even though they encountered obstacles on the way to low and stable inflation. This led to a decline in dollar and purchases of euro. The upward trend in EUR/USD will continue today as long as Manufacturing PMI, Service PMI, and Composite PMI data for the eurozone exceed expectations.
For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0946 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1003. Growth will occur after very good statistics from Germany and the eurozone, especially in the manufacturing sector. When buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0921, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0946 and 1.1003. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0921 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0875. Pressure will increase in the case of unsuccessful bullish activity around the daily high and weak data. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0946, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0921 and 1.0875.
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