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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 8, 2023
GBP/USD
On Friday, the British pound chose an alternative scenario with a short-term perspective – on quite good data on US employment, it overcame the resistance of 1.2598 and approached the target level of 1.2666. Now the whole question is in the level of divergence slope by the Marlin oscillator. The price may continue to rise to the second target of 1.2785, and the divergence will not be obstructed.
This target level is the average value of the extremes of June 2020 and November 2019. Such a scenario can be realized if the price consolidates above 1.2666. If the price consolidates below 1.2598, the pound will make additional efforts to reach 1.2447.
On the four-hour chart, the price, indicators, and oscillator are growing. The bullish sentiment is optimistic, and we can only wait for the price to consolidate above 1.2666. The probability of implementing the described scenarios is equal.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 9, 2023
EUR/USD
As of today, the euro clearly correlates with the yields of US government bonds, which are growing and pulling the single currency down. But for more reliable conditions for the euro's medium-term decline, it lacks other correlating instruments - commodities or the stock market, which are still growing. Other counter-dollar currencies are also not in a hurry to reverse.
On the daily chart, the price is moving towards the important support of 1.0910, and consolidating below it may indicate a break in the uptrend from March 16th. The 1.0804 target will become available. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in negative territory - in the downtrend area. At the moment, the euro has not fallen deep enough to prevent it from reversing and working through the range of 1.1078-1.1110.
On the four-hour chart, the price has once again consolidated below the indicator lines, with Marlin in the area of the downtrend. If signals from related markets support the dollar, this time these technical signals will be effective.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 10, 2023
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the pound closed almost at Monday's closing level. The Marlin oscillator's signal line lies in a sideways trend, thereby reducing the likelihood of creating divergence from Monday's peak, which tested the target level of 1.2666.
But the reversal potential is not exhausted, so consolidating below 1.2598 and overcoming yesterday's low of 1.2577 opens the target at 1.2447. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator returned to the positive area, but probably for a short time.
Below the level of 1.2598, there is another support – the MACD line. Overcoming it (1.2568) will remove the last obstacle for the development of a medium-term decline in the British currency.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 11, 2023
USD/JPY
After the price reached the target level of 135.40 on Wednesday, it returned below the price channel line (134.50). The target on the MACD indicator line is 133.03.
The Marlin oscillator approached the zero line and presents two different interpretations: either the oscillator's signal line will reverse from this zero boundary and pull the quote above 134.50 for a repeated attack on the 135.40 level, or the Marlin will move to negative territory and help the price reach the MACD line (133.03).
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below 134.50 and below the indicator lines; the Marlin oscillator has returned to negative territory. All these circumstances maintain the downtrend and the main scenario of achieving the target of 133.03.
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for May 12, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has made another new swing high at the level of 1.2678, so the key technical resistance located t 1.2666 was broken. After the new swing high was made, the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move, so the market pulled-back and keeps moving lower towards the technical support seen at the level of 1.2434. Please keep an eye on this level as any breakout lower might trigger the bigger correction on Pound. The weak and negative momentum in the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for Pound.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.27061
WR2 - 1.26746
WR1 - 1.26607
Weekly Pivot - 1.26431
WS1 - 1.26292
WS2 - 1.26116
WS3 - 1.25801
Trading Outlook:
Pound continues the corrective cycle to the upside and on the Weekly time frame chart the price is about to hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778. When this level is hit, the high volatility is expected, so please stay focused as the bears will defend this level strongly.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of GBP/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Monday May 15, 2023
On the 4-hour intraday chart of the GBP/JPY cross currency pairs, a Failing Wedge pattern can be seen and the support level at 168.04 is strong enough to prevent the GBP/JPY downward correction, especially with the confirmation by the MACD indicator which is in a speculative BUY position, so there is a high probability for GBP/JPY In the near future, JPY will appreciate, rally up to the level of 171.14 as the first target and the level of 172.30 as the second target as long as it is on its way to these targets, there will be no significant downward correction, especially if it breaks below the 166.46 level because if this level is broken down, all Bull scenarios that have been previously described will become invalid and cancel by themselves.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 16, 2023
EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro went through a calm correction after sharply falling in the last two days. On the daily chart, there is no sign of the end of the correction, so it could continue to the resistance line of the price channel at the 1.0900 mark. It is possible to overcome this line, and then the price will be stopped by the MACD indicator line, located 15 points higher.
Then the price could reverse into a new wave of decline with the nearest target of 1.0804. On the 4-hour chart, the accelerated growth of the Marlin oscillator catches the eye.
This could be a sign of oscillator discharge before further subsequent decline, or the euro is waiting for a more complex correction from the new local low with the formation of convergence, as shown on the chart with dashed lines. Perhaps, until the end of the month, the euro will spend in a sideways wide-range.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 17, 2023
EUR/USD So, in accordance with our forecast, after sharply falling below technical supports on May 12, yesterday the price returned to one of them and went through a retest (embedded line of the price channel). It's also noticeable that on the daily chart, touching the channel line occurred at the point of contact with the balance indicator line.
Now we are waiting for the price to drop to the previously indicated target of 1.0804. Falling below this level will allow the price to compete with the support of the underlying price channel line and reach the support level of 1.0736 (the peak of December 15, 2022). However, if it fails to cross support at 1.0804, the price will stay in a short-term sideways trend.
On the four-hour chart, there was a reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the zero line (arrow) yesterday. In general, the price is falling in a linear regression channel. We are waiting for the price at the target level of 1.0804.
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Forecast for AUD/USD on May 18, 2023
AUD/USD The Australian dollar traded within the target levels of 0.6628 and 0.6670 yesterday. The reversal of the Marlin oscillator's signal line from the zero line was confirmed (arrow) on the daily chart.
Now, the probability of the price overcoming the 0.6628 support has significantly increased, and the price will soon reach the target level of 0.6567 (the low of March 8). In case of an alternative scenario, with the price surpassing 0.6670, it will continue to rise to the MACD line around the 0.6704 mark.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has turned down from the oscillator's zero line. The price is developing under the balance and MACD indicator lines. In the short term, we expect the price to overcome the 0.6628 support level according to the main scenario.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 19, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro did not develop a sideways movement, so as not to delay the breakthrough under the technical support level of 1.0804. Trading volumes were average, which means that the systematic buying of the dollar is underway, and the nearest big accumulation of orders is in the range of 0.0680-0.0730. Near this area is our target level of 1.0736. Consolidating below it will pave the way for 1.0636 - the underlying embedded line of the price channel, coinciding with the March 2020 low.
At the moment, a potential for a correction has emerged again, its goal is the level of 1.0804. There is one reason why the euro could fall without going through a correction - increased optimism regarding the resolution of the problem with the US public debt. There is a probability that the dispute in the US government on this issue will end this weekend.
A renewed convergence was formed on the four-hour chart. Since yesterday's low coincided with the point of intersection of price channel lines of two time scales (on 4H linear regression channel), the probability of a correction has increased. This probability may significantly go down once the price settles below yesterday's low.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EUR/USD. Week Preview. Buckle up, price turbulence expected
The EUR/USD pair failed to consolidate within the 7th figure by the end of the past week: at the end of Friday's trading, EUR/USD bulls organized a small but swift counter-attack, which led the price to rise to the level of 1.0804. The corrective pullback was due to a weakening of the US currency, which came under pressure against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's cautious rhetoric.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve suggested that the May rate hike could be the last in the current monetary policy tightening cycle. This unexpected plot twist unpleasantly surprised dollar bulls, after which the greenback fell across the market. Under other circumstances, this fundamental factor would have had a strong impact on the dollar for a quite long time. But under current conditions, Powell's "dovish" comments may take a back seat. The focus is on the political confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, whose inability to reach an agreement could lead to a default on the US national debt.
There is no doubt that this topic will be the "number 1 issue" for all dollar pairs. All other fundamental factors will take a back seat - including Powell.
Biden raises the stakes
Exactly one week ago - May 14 - the President of the United States announced that negotiations with Congress on raising the debt ceiling are "progressing," and more about their progress will be known literally "in the next two days". At the same time, he emphasized that he is optimistic about the prospects of reaching a compromise. In anticipation of the next round of negotiations, assistants to the President of the United States and the Speaker of the lower house of Congress, Kevin McCarthy, began to form a "road map" to curb federal spending in order to resume negotiations on raising the debt ceiling.
The negotiations indeed took place - but ended in failure. The parties just "agreed to agree", but no more. Now the situation is up in the air. Another round of negotiations should take place after Biden completes his visit to Japan, where the G7 summit is being held. At the same time, the head of the White House canceled his planned visit to Australia, which speaks to the seriousness of the situation.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 23, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the US stock market closed mixed, bond yields slightly increased, and as a result, the euro did not extend the corrective growth that started on Friday.
Nevertheless, the day closed with a white candlestick above the level of 1.0804, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to rise, suggesting that we might see a bullish correction. For this to happen, the price needs to surpass the previous day's high at 1.0832. The upper limit of the corrective growth is represented by the embedded line of the price channel around the 1.0887 mark. If the price consolidates below 1.0804, it will indicate that the previous breakout above the level was false and will pave the way to the target at 1.0736.
On the four-hour chart, the price is consolidating above the level of 1.0804. The subsequent price movement is more likely to be upward, but not significantly, towards the nearest resistance at 1.0845 - the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is moving parallel to the zero line in the positive area. The balance indicator line (red) is holding back the growth, but even with moderate price growth, it will adapt and stay above the price. This indicates the corrective nature of the potential growth.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 24, 2023
EUR/USD:
The euro is falling for significant reasons - the imminent increase in the debt limit (which will lead to a massive influx of dollars from outside to purchase US government bonds) and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates than what the markets currently expect (yesterday, Neel Kashkari and James Bullard mentioned raising rates above 6% as inflation persists).
However, from a technical standpoint, the situation is ripe for a correction. On the daily chart, a small weak convergence between price and the Marlin oscillator is forming. The price has not reached the embedded line of the price channel (green line), creating a dual situation: either the inclined support will be tested today, or the price will go up to 1.0804 and only after that will it attack 1.0736, surpassing the price channel line. A drop below 1.0736 opens the target at 1.0625, the lower embedded line of the price channel.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is declining in bearish territory. The resistance level at 1.0804 is reinforced by the MACD indicator line here. Yesterday's trading volumes were at average May levels, which does not provide a basis for an immediate breakthrough of support. Perhaps a small correction will allow investors to accumulate short positions.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 25, 2023
EUR/USD:
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair tested the resistance level of 1.0804 and closed the day on the lower embedded line of the price channel. The convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator continues to influence the pair on the daily chart, and the pair could enter a correction from the support level of 1.0736 (the high of December 15, 2022).
If the price consolidates below the aforementioned level, the convergence will cease to exist, and the price will continue to move towards the next price channel line around 1.0625. The intermediate support is at the level of 1.0692, the high of March 1.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has a small probability of forming a double convergence (exactly when the price tests the level of 1.0736), after which the price may undergo a corrective rise towards the MACD line, which is slightly below the resistance level of 1.0804. In addition, Marlin may easily break its own generating line and continue to fall along with the price.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 26, 2023
GBP/USD:
Yesterday, the pound opened and closed below the MACD indicator line. The downward movement may move towards the target range of 1.2125/53.
The Marlin oscillator has slowed down and shows an intention to move up, which may indicate preparation for a correction to the MACD line (1.2400). If the correction does not occur and the support at 1.2273 is breached, we expect the price to reach the specified target range.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has a good potential for a decline. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines. If a correction does occur (while awaiting agreements on the U.S. debt limit), the upper limit of the correction is also the MACD indicator line at 1.2400.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2023
EUR/USD:
Last Friday, the euro traded within a range of 56 pips, closing the day at the opening level. The resistance of the target level at 1.0736 and the embedded line of the price channel were tested. Today, the price is not willing to repeat what it did on Friday, but the small convergence with the Marlin oscillator indicates that the price doesn't intend to enter a correction. Today is a holiday in the US and the UK, so we do not expect any significant or qualitative changes in the technical picture.
The threat of a US default (or a budget shutdown) has also passed, as the White House and Republicans have reached an agreement on a 2-year debt limit. The agreement will be passed by the lower chamber tomorrow. If the price consolidates above 1.0736, it may develop a corrective rise towards 1.0804, while falling below 1.0692 would allow the price to target the bearish level of 1.0628.
On the four-hour chart, the price failed to consolidate above 1.0736 on Friday, and this morning it has already settled below it, supported by the downward-turning Marlin oscillator. The price is trying to either stay above 1.0692 or remain in a sideways movement. The first strong resistance for the corrective movement is represented by the MACD line at 1.0756.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2023
EUR/USD: Yesterday, when the US and UK had a holiday, the euro cautiously tested the resistance of the nearest descending price channel line and ended the day lower. It appears that the bears are struggling to maintain pressure on the quotes. According to our main scenario, when the US government makes the final decision to raise the debt ceiling (tomorrow, as the lower house of Congress approves it today), the dollar will advance against all global currencies. However, this scenario has a visible pitfall - the desire of major players to eliminate premature dollar bulls. In this case, the euro may rise to the target level of 1.0804.
On the other hand, if investors expect long-term strengthening of the dollar, initiating a move with a preliminary upward price spike of just one figure may not be a very effective endeavor. Historically, false movements of the euro against news of debt limit increases have occurred intermittently. It is difficult to predict how things will unfold today. Even from a technical perspective, the small convergence on the daily chart indicates both a potential minor correction and its possible breakdown due to strong news.
On the four-hour chart, the price is getting closer to the MACD indicator line, from which a downward reversal may occur, or with the assistance of the Marlin oscillator, which is ready to enter the positive territory, the price could climb to the target level of 1.0804 (February 14 and May 24 highs). The MAcD line (1.0738) coincides with the price channel line on the daily chart, making it a strong level. There is a certain probability that the euro will decline without a preliminary corrective rally.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 31, 2023
EUR/USD
On Tuesday, the euro went through a correction, defined by the convergence with the Marlin oscillator. The price once again tested the target level of 1.0738 and the embedded line of the descending channel. The signal line of the oscillator has entered its own descending channel.
According to the main scenario, the price can now consolidate below the support level of 1.0692 and continue moving towards 1.0620, which is the lower embedded line of the price channel. The alternative scenario is simple - after settling above 1.0738, a test of the target resistance at 1.0804 is possible. This would extend the correction.
On the four-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD indicator line after a false breakout above it. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the negative territory after briefly staying in the positive area. The trend is bearish
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 1, 2023
EUR/USD:
The euro closed yesterday with a black candle. The lower shadow almost reached the target line of the descending price channel. Surprisingly, such a strong movement from the technical side did not improve the bears' position. A convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator has only intensified, and the oscillator's signal line has not reversed from the upper limit of its own channel. In addition, the price did not consolidate below the target level of 1.0692.
As a result, we return to yesterday's state: a breakout above 1.0738 opens the target of 1.0804, while a consolidation below 1.0692 allows the price to once again attack 1.0620. Breaking through this level opens the path to 1.0497.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is still below the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in negative territory. Therefore, the bears have a chance to prevail.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 01, 2023
Overview :
The GBP/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2545, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2545. Support levels found at the levels of 1.2493 and 1.2454.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued to move upwards from the levels of 1.2493 and 1.2454. The pair rose from the levels of 1.2493 or 1.2454 to the top around 1.2523.
In consequence, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 1.2545.
Moreover, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, and the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the area of 1.2493 - 1.2454. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.2493 and 1.2454.
Today, the level of 1.2493 is expected to act as major support. Hence, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2493 towards the target level of 1.2545.
If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2545, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2545 in order to reach the second target at 1.0002 to test the double top in the H1 time frame.
However, the price spot of 1.2593 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend will probably be rebounded again from the double top as long as the level of 1.2454 is not breached.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 5, 2023
GBP/USD: On Friday, the pound fell by 75 pips amid mixed but not exactly weak US employment data. This morning, upon the news of President Biden signing a bill to lift the debt ceiling on Saturday, the pound lost another 20 pips, entering the range of the May 31 candle.
The nearest target at 1.2403, the MACD daily line, is now open. Breaking below this line opens up the target of 1.2273, which is both the April 3 low and the February 14 high. The Marlin oscillator is moving deeper into the downtrend area, and it may reach the oversold zone when the price approaches the target range of 1.2125/53.
On the four-hour chart, the price is moving between two target levels while the Marlin oscillator remains negative. It is likely that the price will attempt to break 1.2403. If successful, the pound will aim for the MACD line on the four-hour chart around 1.2370. Breaking below this support, the British pound will be aiming for 1.2273.
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 6, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair had reversed sharply lower after the technical resistance level seen at 1.2550 was too strong to be broken. The bears moved below all of the MA levels, but eventually the market bounced from the short-term trend line support seen at the level of 1.2367. The momentum reversed sharply from the extremely overbought conditions on the H4 time frame as well and is currently moving testing the level of fifty. There is still a room for a momentum and price to move lower, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.25080
WR2 - 1.24565
WR1 - 1.24223
Weekly Pivot - 1.24050
WS1 - 1.23708
WS2 - 1.23535
WS3 - 1.23020
Trading Outlook:
A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Asset, Wednesday, June 07 2023
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ff6a5b38ec.jpg
With the appearance of Deviation between price movement of Silver commodity asset with osMA indicator on its 4 hour chart, then it can be confirmed that if in the neareast future Silver will go down up to the level 23,204, and if this level successfully broken below, then Silver has the opportunity to continue its downside up to the level 22,875. But, if there is a quite significant upward correction, especially if it go up to the level 23,920, then the downward scenario which has been described below will become invalid and will cancel itself.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USDCHF, H4 | Break above the resistance?
The USD/CHF chart exhibits bullish momentum as the price remains above a significant ascending trend line, suggesting further potential for upward movement.
There is a possibility of continued bullishness towards the first resistance level at 0.9117, identified as an overlap resistance.
Support levels at 0.9023 and 0.8954, the latter coinciding with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, serve as significant levels of potential support.
An intermediate resistance level at 0.9091 is recognized as a multi-swing high resistance, highlighting its importance.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 12, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro is approaching the support level at 1.0738. The Marlin oscillator has backed off from attacking the zero line and has turned around as it approaches it. On the euro's path towards the target at 1.0600, there are at least three strong support levels: the nearest ones are at 1.0738, 1.0716, and 1.0692. There are no major macroeconomic news today, but tomorrow's important event will be the release of the May CPI in the US, and forecasts already suggest a slowdown in inflation (4.9-5.0% YoY compared to April's 4.9% YoY, although the range of forecasts varies depending on the analytical agency and individual groups of economists).
The yield on US government bonds is not decreasing and remains at the peaks of June 7-9, technically leaning towards growth. This sentiment is also felt in gold, which has declined in value for the second consecutive day. The market probability of a rate hike on Wednesday has slightly increased from 25.3% to 29.9%. If tomorrow's CPI data does exhibit growth, investors will significantly raise this probability, and the markets will psychologically be prepared for an actual rate hike. Today, the volatility is likely to be low, and the day's close will be slightly lower.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is approaching the zero line and may meet it when the price touches 1.0738. Afterwards, we expect the price to move sideways.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Crude Oil Commodity Asset, Wednesday June 14, 2023
With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart - Crude Oil commodity assets, in the near future #CL has the potential to appreciate corrected rally upwards to test the Bearish Orderblock level at 70.62 as the main target and if the momentum and volatility are sufficiently supportive, it is not impossible that the 200 EMA will be the next target to aim for provided that on the way to these targets it does not occur #CL returns to its initial bias again especially not to break below the 67.92 level because if this level is successfully broken then the scenario of an upward correction above that has been described will become invalid and cancel by itself.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 16, 2023
GBP/USD:
On Thursday, the pound rose by 120 pips, reaching the target level of 1.2785. Consolidation above this level will make it possible for the pair to reach the next target at 1.2870. The subsequent targets are at 1.2980/90, and so on, every hundred pips. Yesterday, the pair surpassed the peak of May 10, which marked the highest point of growth since September 2022. As a result, the market has started a trend, and the decline observed from May 10 to May 25 was merely a correction within this annual uptrend.
Considering the fundamental factors and the disbelief in the pound's long-term growth, the current year-long growth can be interpreted as a correction from a more significant decline between May 2021 and September 2022 (69 weeks). Currently, this is the 37th week of growth. It may continue for another three weeks and the pound can reach the level of 1.3160, the December 2021 low.
We are extremely cautious about the prospect of such growth. Right now the Marlin oscillator is already showing signs of a reversal from the overbought territory.
On the 4-hour chart, there are no clear reversal signals, although the oscillator is in the overbought territory. The pound has a good chance of surpassing the 1.2785 level, and it will try to reach the 1.2870 target.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2023
EUR/USD:
On Friday, the euro fell by 5 pips, reaching the upper shadow of the April 4th peak. This level is not very strong, but after testing the stronger target range of 1.0910/30, a reversal could occur from a weaker level. If the price surpasses Friday's high (1.0971), the price will try to test the upper limit of the price channel around 1.1013. The daily Marlin oscillator is turning downward, indicating that the euro will likely try to return below the range of 1.0910/30. Consolidation below this range would allow for a bearish push towards the lower embedded line of the price channel around 1.0840.
On the four-hour chart, there is a price consolidation above the target range of 1.0910/30, indicating a desire for further upward movement. The Marlin oscillator will also turn upward, easing the oversold condition. However, if the euro has no intention of rising, once the price falls below the mentioned range, it will consolidate below the zero line along with the oscillator, as its decline is quite rapid. The support level at 1.0840 approximately corresponds to the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The same indicator line on the daily chart is also approaching this area.
The support is becoming stronger, and its significance is increasing day by day. Therefore, breaking below this level would be a definitive signal for the development of medium-term downward movement (1.0580).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 20, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro fell by 18 pips, marking the lower limit of the target range at 1.0910/30 with its lower shadow. Consolidation below the range will allow for an advance towards the lower line of the price channel around the 1.0840 mark. However, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling sluggishly, indicating that the euro still has a potential to rise. At the same time, the price is above the balance indicator line (which also halted its decline yesterday), indicating a maintained upward potential along with Marlin.
The situation could be reversed by a strong downward movement surpassing yesterday's level. This is possible if the US construction data turns out to be good and today's speeches by James Bullard and John Williams demonstrate firmness, hinting at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's stance in his key speech in the House of Representatives tomorrow.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply declines in a straight line. This often indicates a reversal of the price upwards. If the price finds the strength to break below the MACD line, the upward reversal is either postponed until the completion of a deep correction or canceled. The price is about 65 pips away from the MACD line, and an additional 15-20 pips would be needed for confirmation below it, which may prove to be an unattainable task for today. Powell's speech will take place in 9 four-hour candles (green vertical line). If the price does not deviate from its plan, it will only need to cover 50 pips since the MACD line is rising and approaching the price. The ultimate signal level is the peak on June 14 at 1.0865. The task is achievable, but the first impulse is necessary. The main plan will be canceled if the price breaks above the peak on June 16, allowing the price to continue rising towards 1.1007.
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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 26, 2023
USD/JPY:
Last Friday, the Japanese yen entered the 143.20/80 range and has been consolidating within it until this morning. On the daily chart, a divergence has not yet formed between the price and the Marlin oscillator. Keeping the price within the current range increases the chances of a subsequent decline. If the dollar continues to rise, then after surpassing 143.80, the 144.73 target will just be within reach.
Falling below 143.20 would indicate that the dollar cannot continue to rise without a corrective pause, and the 142.30 target will open up. Moreover, if the price breaches the support level, it would mean a break below the embedded line of the price channel, potentially leading to sideways movement for a few days before further upward movement.
On the four-hour chart, the pair is accelerating its growth. The Marlin oscillator is not yet in the overbought zone, so there is a good chance for the price to reach 144.73 in the near future before the growth loses momentum. As the probability of further growth and correction is roughly equal, the key levels to watch are 143.20 and 143.80.
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 27, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of 1.2698 and the bulls keeps trying to bounce higher to resume the up trend. The local low was made a few pips lower at 1.2684 and will act as the intraday technical support. The 50 MA will provide the dynamic resistance for bulls around the level of 1.2766 when the up trend is resumed. The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart support short-term bearish outlook for GBP, but the bulls keep trying to move up. The pull-back might evolve into a full-blown correction if the level of 1.2684 is broken.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.27656
WR2 - 1.27471
WR1 - 1.27367
Weekly Pivot - 1.27286
WS1 - 1.27182
WS2 - 1.27101
WS3 - 1.26916
Trading Outlook:
The 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 has been hit, but it does not indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout above this level and a weekly candle close above it is needed to change the long-term outlook to bullish. The key long term level of technical support is seen at 1.2444. The next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3160.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 30, 2023
EUR/USD: Yesterday, thanks to the report on the final estimate of US GDP for the first quarter, which turned out to be better than expected, the US dollar strengthened by 0.35%. The euro lost 47 pips. On the daily chart, the price settled below the range of 1.0910/30. Now the price can reach the target range of 1.0789-1.0804.
The MACD line is approaching this range, increasing its importance. Consolidating below this range will be a key indicator of the euro's medium-term uptrend. Around the same time, the Marlin oscillator will move into negative territory.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line stayed within the downtrend area yesterday. The price briefly moved above the range and the balance line. We expect further developments within the support range of 1.0789-1.0804.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on July 3, 2023
GBP/USD
On Friday, the GBP/USD pair rose above the target level of 1.2678. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards from the zero line. Now, if the pair closes the day above this level, it will continue to rise towards the next resistance level at 1.2785. Closing the day below 1.2678 will extend the period of uncertainty since the US will be celebrating a holiday tomorrow.
According to the main scenario, the price is trading towards the target support level at 1.2520, where the MACD line is currently located. This would automatically lead to a break below the embedded green price channel line (1.2572), which is a sign of medium-term decline. The pair will likely go through light trading today and tomorrow, due to the US holiday, and major events will unfold on Wednesday.
On the four-hour chart, the price is staying above 1.2678, and the first resistance it encounters is the balance indicator line. Marlin is rising in the positive territory. There is a possibility of further growth towards the MACD line (1.2760) and then 1.2785. Currently, time is working in favor of the bears. If the price fails to firmly establish above 1.2678 or reverses downwards, it may lead to a two-day period of uncertainty (range).
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 4, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro showed a range of 60 points, closing the day at the opening level. The upper shadow tested the 1.0930 level, and this morning the price is headed towards this mark again, not giving up hope of reaching the upper band of the green descending price channel around 1.0990. This is possible if the euro follows the stock market and employment data turn out worse than expected. For now, the price needs to consolidate above 1.0930. Surpassing yesterday's low at 1.0871 will be a signal for a decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the price could not consolidate below the balance indicator line and returned to the 1.0910/30 range. Here, it can linger for a while and try to overcome the MACD line around 1.0952. The Marlin oscillator in the positive area is ready to join the growth at any moment.
Given that we accept the bearish scenario for the euro as the main plan, the price may not overcome the MACD line and return below the range. Like yesterday, uncertainty persists in the short-term perspective.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro lost more than 30 points yesterday, finding resistance at 1.0910/30 quite strong. The Marlin oscillator is not resisting this decline, it is approaching the border of the downtrend territory. Crossing this border will accelerate the pair's decline. There are two nearby targets: the MACD line (1.0820) and the target range under it at 1.0789-1.0804.
An alternative scenario will unfold with the price breaking above the resistance range of 1.0910/30, making the next target as 1.0984. On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is also in decline territory. We are watching the development of the current downtrend.
Today, the eurozone services PMI for May will be published - a decline from 55.1 to 52.4 is forecasted. In the US, the volume of industrial orders for May will be released, with growth of 0.8% expected.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 6, 2023
USD/JPY
For the sixth session, the yen has done nothing but move to the right. Such consolidation, however, increases the chances of an upward breakout, first to the target of 145.68, then to 147.40. The price's divergence with the Marlin oscillator is gradually losing strength due to inactivity.
Now, even if the price falls to one of the support levels (143.80, 143.20), there will be a quick reversal. If the Marlin oscillator enters negative territory, which will not happen today, the price may fuel the corrective decline to the embedded line of the price channel around the 142.70 mark.
On the four-hour chart, the price fell under the balance and MACD indicator lines during the sideways movement. The price delay under these lines increases the chances of a decline. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating below the zero line – also a sign of a possible decline in the near future. Under the influence of external circumstances, the price may consolidate above 144.73 and this would point to upward movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 11, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has broken above the intraday technical resistance seen at the level of 1.0974 and made a new swing high at the level of 1.1023 (at the time of writing the analysis). The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0974. Please notice, the momentum has hit the extremely overbought conditions again, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. In a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0901 and 1.0876. Only a sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.09927
WR2 - 1.09761
WR1 - 1.09665
Weekly Pivot - 1.09595
WS1 - 1.09499
WS2 - 1.09429
WS3 - 1.09263
Trading Outlook:
Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro has reached the target resistance of 1.1028. The pair has crossed the peak of June 22, and along with it, the primary conditions for forming divergence with the Marlin oscillator have been prepared. If a divergence is formed, it will mean the end of the entire corrective growth since May 31. If the price consolidates above 1.1028, it could extend this correction to 1.1085, that is, to its limit as a correction. But if the pair surpasses this level, it will mean the continuation of the entire uptrend from September 25, 2022. However, this growth also has a small chance of a build-up, its first resistance level is 1.1155.
Today, the June CPI data will be published in the United States. The total CPI is forecasted to fall from 4.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y, and the core CPI is expected to decrease from 5.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. As the previous rise from July 6 was purely speculative, the market reaction to the data could even be against the data. This means that if the current market logic implies a softening of the Federal Reserve's policy in connection with forecasts for today's data, then the actual reaction could be the opposite (falling euro), as a cumulative view on the deterioration of the European economy and the resilience of the American one. It is also notable that the market ignored yesterday's drop in the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July from -10.0 to -12.2.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is developing sideways movement in its own range. This is a sign of increasing potential for a downward movement. All we have to do is wait for the US inflation report and look at the market reaction.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 13, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday's US inflation data came out better than forecasts; the core CPI for June fell from 5.3% YoY to 4.8% YoY, the overall CPI fell by 1.0% - from 4.0% YoY to 3.0% YoY. The euro surpassed the April peak and closely approached the target level of 1.1155. Now the price has revived the uptrend from September 25, 2022. After overcoming 1.1155, the next target will be 1.1222 (the support level from December 7-15, 2022).
The pair may not surpass the 1.1155 mark today, but after a slight pullback to the nearest support level of 1.1085. The reason may be the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production in the eurozone - the forecast for May is -1.1% YoY against 0.2% YoY in April.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the consolidation and moved upwards, and immediately into the overbought territory. This is also a sign of an impending pullback before the price rises further.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 14, 2023
EUR/USD continues to rally higher towards the next upside target at 1.1444. In the longer term, we are looking for EUR/USD to move closer to the 1.2007 target as a minimum.
Short-term support is seen near 1.1130 with solid support placed at 1.1033, which previously acted as resistance, but now, has shifted character to support after the clear break on Wednesday. In the short term, we could see the pace of the rally settle down, but the bias will remain towards the upside.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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