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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 9, 2021
Yesterday the Japanese yen traded in a range of 65 points, but the day was closed with a white candle and settling above the daily MACD line (blue sliding line) was confirmed.
The Marlin Oscillator is approaching the border with the growth territory. This is a sign that the signal level of 113.96 (yesterday's high) is technically increasing its value - crossing and settling on it can be synchronized in time with the oscillator's transition to the positive area, which will strengthen the upward potential. The target for growth is the 115.80-116.15 range. Returning under the price channel line (113.21) will provoke an attack on the bearish signal level of 112.54, the crossing of which, in turn, will direct the price to the lower line of the price channel of 110.77.
On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the MACD indicator line, the Marlin Oscillator is in a sideways local trend, but in the zone of positive values. The probability of further growth is 70%.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUDUSD bullish breakout | 10th Dec 2021
The wandering nature of the euro, which we talked about in yesterday's review, is gaining confirmation this morning. The daily scale Marlin Oscillator begins chaotic movements along the zero line, approximately as it was in the third decade of October (gray rectangle). Therefore, we can take the price movement to 1.1415 and to 1.1170 equally probable. Taking into account the current downward trend, which has been going on since May, the probability of a downward trend is 55%. Of course, surpassing the target level of 1.1415 and the MACD line will direct the euro into medium-term growth.
On the four-hour chart, the price is being held by the MACD indicator line, the Marlin Oscillator has penetrated the bears' territory. If the price moves below yesterday's low (1.1278), it will also correspond to its decline below the MACD line, which will increase the probability of price movement to the lower target of 1.1170 to 75%.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Indicator Analysis; Daily review for December 13, 2021
Trend analysis (Fig. 1).
The market may move down on Monday from the level of 1.1314 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1246, the support line (blue bold line). When testing this line, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1306, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).
Fig. 1 (daily chart)
Comprehensive analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- Volumes - down;
- Candlestick analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly chart - down.
General conclusion:
The price may move down from the level of 1.1314 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1246, the support line (blue bold line). When testing this line, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1306, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).
Unlikely scenario: the price may start moving up from the level of 1.1314 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1354, the upper fractal (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1378, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis for EUR/USD on December 14, 2021
Trend analysis (pic. 1).
Today, the pair has dropped from the level of 1.1283 (the closing of yesterday's daily candlestick). It may reach the support level of 1.1249 (the blue bold line). When testing this level, it is likely to rebound to the retracement level of 23.6% - 1.1305 (blue dotted line). After that, the pair may climb higher.
Pic. 1 (daily chart).
Complex technical analysis:
- technical indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci retracement levels - down;
- trading volumes - down;
- candlestick analysis - up;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger bands - down;
- weekly chart-up.
Conclusion:
Today, the price from the level of 1.1283 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), moving down, will try to reach the support line - 1.1249 (blue bold line). When testing this line, it is possible to move up in order to reach the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.1305 (blue dotted line), most likely, after that the price will go further up.
Alternatively, the pair may try to resume the downward movement from the 1.1283 level (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target level of 1.1249. It also acts as a support (blue bold line). Having tested this level, the pair is likely to decline to the target level of 1.1227, the bottom line (red dotted line).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 16, 2021
The dollar strengthened against the yen by 0.32% (35 points) on Wednesday following the US Federal Reserve meeting. The price broke the signal level of 113.96, crossed the indicator line of the daily scale balance, displacing the market interest in buying, and now its target is 115.80-116.15. The Marlin Oscillator supports this price plan by moving into an upward trend area.
On the chart of a four-hour scale, the price is in an upward trend by all indications: its development goes above the indicator lines, Marlin is in the positive area.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading signals for CRUDE OIL on December 20 - 21, 2021: buy above 68,75 (2/8)
The oil price (WTI- #CL) kicked off this week with a bearish gap and approached the low of 68,75. The 2/8 Murray zone is strong support for crude oil. It is expected for the next few days to bounce above this level with targets at the 21 SMA located at 70,77.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded the outlook for oil demand by around 100,000 barrels per day for both 2021 and 2022, citing the emergence of the Omicron variant weighing on global oil demand.
A surplus in oil inventories of 1.7 million barrels per day could materialize in the first quarter of 2022, an oil surplus of 2 million barrels per day could materialize in the second quarter of 2022.
According to the IEA report, global supply could skyrocket by 6.4 million barrels per day next year compared to an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2021.
In the medium term, oil could be under downward pressure. If inventories continue to increase in the market, the oil price could decline more to the psychological level of 50,00.
On the chart, we can see that oil is trading below the 200 EMA located at 73,55 and below the 21 SMA at 70,77. This technical data provides the negative outlook for oil, which we could expect to fall in the next few days towards 65,62 and even more to the low of December 2 at 62,40.
Our trading plan is to buy as long as it remains above 2/8 Murray, with the target at SMA of 21 at 70,77. Friday's gap at the close of Friday will be covered. A consolidation above 70.77 could boost the recovery of oil to the level of 200 EMA at 73,55.
Conversely, a daily close below 68,40 could quickly accelerate the WTI decline. The objective will be to cover the gap that remains open at 65,62 if the downward pressure prevails up to 62,40. The eagle indicator continues to give the negative signal. It is likely that it could continue the fall in the coming days.
Support and Resistance Levels for December 20 - 21, 2021
Resistance (3) 70,76
Resistance (2) 70,19
Resistance (1) 69,32
----------------------------
Support (1) 68,72
Support (2) 67,97
Support (3) 67,01
************************************************** *********
A trading tip for WTI on December 20 - 21, 2021
Buy above 68,75 (2/8) with take profit at 70,77 and 73,55 (200 EMA), stop loss below 68,30.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021
The euro rose by 37 points on Monday, extending the lateral movement in time from the 7th. The Marlin Oscillator continued to form the pattern of the third decade of October (gray area). Then, after the sideways trend of the oscillator, the price fell, a similar outcome is likely in the current situation.
The four-hour chart shows a correctional price rebound from the support area on December 7 and 16, which was expected yesterday. The balance indicator line stopped the price's growth, while the oscillator's growth was stopped by its own zero line - the border with the bulls' territory. Now we are waiting for a repeated attack on the support area on December 7 and 16 (1.1225/40), surpassing it and further decline to the first target level of 1.1170, then to 1.1050.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 22, 2021
EUR/JPY is clearly in its final stages of the correction near wave 4/. All we need is a break above minor resistance at 129.64 to confirm that wave 4/ is completed and wave 5/ of 3 is in motion towards at least 135.04 and possibly even closer to the 139.70 target. This will complete wave 3 and set the stage for another wave 4 correction,. However, first we need to stay alert to signs that wave 4/ is completed and wave 5/ is in motion. The best thing that can happen is a break above minor resistance at 129.64 to confirm that wave 5/ is in motion.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2021
Yesterday, the euro decided to choose an upward direction, intending to complicate and lengthen the horizontal movement, which began on November 29-30. There are about 20 points until the resistance of the MACD line (1.1363), and without breaking the main scenario and its own sideways movement, it is likely that the price will turn down from this resistance. If it overcomes the 1.1363 level, the main scenario will change to a price reversal from the target level of 1.1415. But if the price settles above 1.1415, then an alternative scenario will take effect with the price rising to the target level of 1.1572 (the January 2019 high).
An interesting situation develops on the Marlin Oscillator. Yesterday's exit of the signal line from the rectangular area of consolidation, marked with a gray area, repeats the exit of the signal line from the same consolidation on October 28 - it is marked with a red oval. And, as you can see, after the signal line returned to the range, the price fell.
On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, Marlin is confidently rising in the positive area - the situation is upward. Probably, the price will decide to test the strength of the resistance range of 1.1363-1.1415.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.55%
At the close in New York, the Dow Jones gained 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 0.62% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.85%.
In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Caterpillar Inc, which increased in price by 4.05 points (2.00%), to close at around 206.20. Dow Inc added 1.68% or 0.91 points to end trade at 55.14. Honeywell International Inc rose 1.67% or 3.38 points to close at 205.22.
The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 0.61% or 1.34 points to end the session at 216.62. Merck & Company Inc is up 0.56% or 0.43 points to end at 75.73 and Walmart Inc is 0.22% or 0.31 points down to 139. , 49.
The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 at the end of today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 5.76% to 1.067.00, ViacomCBS Inc, which gained 4.80% to close at 30.58, and shares Micron Technology Inc rose 4.52% to end the session at 94.42.
The biggest losers were Coterra Energy Inc, which fell 1.82% to close at 19.39. Hologic Inc shed 1.42% to end the session at 76.12. Pfizer Inc was down 1.41% to 58.71.
The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of 22nd Century Group Inc, which rose 38.64% to the level of 3.050, Oncology Institute Inc, which gained 38.46%, to close at 10.44, and Pasithea Therapeutics Corp rose 36.73% to trade at 2.01 at the close.
The biggest losers were InnovAge Holding Corp, which fell 35.64% to close at 5.31. Jupiter Wellness Inc shed 24.89% to trade at 0.954. American Virtual Cloud Technologies Inc was down 24.00% to 1,900.
On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that went up (2,289) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (971), while the quotations of 126 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2679 companies rose in price, 1163 declined, and 181 remained at the level of the previous close.
The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.60% to 17.96, hitting a fresh monthly low.
Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.42% or 7.65 to $ 1.809.85 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 1.32%, or 0.96, to $ 73.72 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery rose 0.01%, or 0.01, to trade at $ 76.61 a barrel.
Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.03% to hit 1.1331, while USD / JPY was up 0.04% to hit 114.41.
The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.02% at 96.035.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 27, 2021
The euro opened the last trading week of 2021 in the upper half of the monthly range, before the resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale chart (1.1355). The price's exit above this resistance will open the nearest target of 1.1415. This is possible even today because of the thin market - UK investors are resting, but if American players wanted to go above 1.14, they would have already done it under more favorable circumstances. Now, if you use the thin market for strategic purposes, it is more convenient to strengthen the dollar. Or not to take any action, that is, to remain sideways until January, until the United States clarifies its geopolitical goals. Situationally, it turns out that it is more profitable to buy dollars. For this case, the 1.1170 target is always open.
According to the Marlin Oscillator, a reversal pattern remains, repeating the technical pattern of October-November 2021 - the signal line of the oscillator may return to the side range marked with a gray rectangle and go down from it.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 28, 2021
For the fourth day, the euro is moving in a narrow sideways direction under the MACD indicator line on the daily scale chart. And the longer this sideways trend lasts, the more likely the price will break above this indicator line (1.1350). The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator moves strictly horizontally above the consolidation range marked with a gray rectangle, which ultimately creates a forecast for the following technical picture: the price will break above the MACD line (1.1350), but for a very short time, return below it, the Marlin Oscillator will return to its own consolidation and the price will continue to decline towards the target of 1.1170. In this case, the target level 1.1415 may not be reached. But if the euro is able to overcome the situation, breaks above 1.1415, then further growth will continue to the target level of 1.1572.
On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the MACD line, the Marlin Oscillator, after a false move into the negative zone, returned to the positive area. These are signs that the price is preparing to jump up to the 1.1350 resistance with the intention of breaking it.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 29, 2021
Over the past day, the price of the single European currency has outlined a tendency to move away from the MACD indicator line on the daily scale chart.
The price does not dare to test the strength of the resistance formed by the merger of two indicator lines - the balance line and the MACD line (1.1345). The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator returns to the range of December 8-21, marked on the oscillator chart with a gray rectangle. The price probably decided to choose the path of less resistance and headed towards the first bearish target of 1.1170. The probability of surpassing the area above the resistance level of 1.1345 has become noticeably lower.
On the four-hour chart, the price returned under the MACD line and managed to settle below it. The price also crossed the balance indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is in a downward trend zone. The descending scenario becomes the main one. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 30, 2021
Yesterday the euro traded in a range of more than 90 points, overcoming the resistance of the balance and MACD indicator lines at the end of the day. An unpleasant surprise did take place.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...a0_source!.jpg
But we are in no hurry to announce that the price will mark near any bullish target level, and here the nearest target is 1.1415. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator can turn down, and the price can just as easily return to yesterday's low. The reason for this will be the fact that the euro grew without a pronounced risk appetite in adjacent markets. US stocks showed mixed closings. US government bonds have undergone sales, but this trend has been going on for ten days and raises new questions - where does the money go from the US market? There is no answer to this question yet. The Treasury is rapidly increasing its debt and formally this should keep the demand for the dollar. The current debt is 29.443 trillion dollars. In the end, the euro has been moving sideways for a month, and until the price breaks out of this sideways side (1.1222-1.1383), it is too early to link the euro's movements with external events.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d1_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the indicator of the Marlin Oscillator moves horizontally, the price periodically goes above and below the line. The Marlin Oscillator is also in a wide-range sideways trend, at the moment it shows an intention to turn down from the positive area.
So, yesterday's rise in prices showed the uncertainty of the euro. And no one knows when it will end. January and February can be challenging geopolitically.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USDCAD, Bearish Pressure | 31st Dec 2021
On the H4, with price breaking the ascending trendline at 1st resistance of 1.27676 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance, price can potentially drop to 1st support at 1.26839, which is in line with horizontal swing low support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to 2nd resistance at 1.2832, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance.
Trading Recommendation
Entry: 1.27676
Reason for Entry:
Horizontal overlap resistance, Ascending trendline breakout
Take Profit: 1.26839
Reason for Take Profit:
Horizontal swing low support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 1.2832
Reason for Stop Loss:
Horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 3, 2022
The euro rose by 64 points on Friday, the last day of 2021. It tested the signal level of 1.1383, and this morning it is moving down from it. A reversal under the MACD line, below 1.1333, will set the downward momentum to the lower border of the free roaming range (1.1222).
On the four-hour chart, the price is developing in a growing position, since the price is above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The MACD line is an indicator of the local trend, and it generally moves horizontally.
In this case, the main indicator of market sentiment will be price taking above or below this line with a confirmation signal from the Marlin Oscillator. At the moment, we see a signal for growth, but Marlin began to show a downward reversal almost vertically, this is a sign of price attack on support (1.1333). And since the MACD line (1.1316) is located below the level of 1.1333, then for the complete formation of conditions for a decline, it is necessary to consolidate below this indicator line.
An exit above 1.1383 could create a reactionary rally towards the 1.1415 target level. Consolidating above it will become a condition for further growth to the level of 1.1570 (January 2019 high).
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 4, 2022
Finally, the euro has made its choice. Yesterday, on solid volumes (despite the fact that there was a day off in Japan and Great Britain), the price went under the daily-scale balance and MACD indicator lines, and this movement was the largest since November 26 (but then there was a price increase). Now the euro is facing the nearest target of 1.1170, but such a powerful start clearly indicates that the target is deeper, for example, 1.1050 - the high of March and December 2015.
On the four-hour scale chart, the price also went under the balance and MACD indicator lines, settled below them, Marlin is in the downward trend zone. We are waiting for the price at the first target of 1.1170.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 5, 2022
Yesterday's trading range for the euro was 51 points. With its upper shadow, the price tried to reach the resistance of the MACD line, while it ended the day under the balance indicator line with a black candle. Now the price has actually settled below both indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator approached the zero line and is preparing to move into the negative zone. When it does this, the price will be completely in a downward position. The target of the movement is 1.1170. Overcoming the level opens the second target at 1.1050.
The price also tried to rise above the MACD line on the four-hour chart; it succeeded, but for a very short time. At the same time, another signal has appeared for the bears - a price reversal to the downside after an unsuccessful attack on resistance. The Marlin Oscillator is in negative territory, the general trend is downward.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 6, 2022
Yesterday, the Australian dollar retested the daily MACD indicator line (arrow) and sharply fell below the target level of 0.7227. This retest became a confirmation of the strength of the MACD line and an additional sign of further price movement down to the target levels of 0.7065 and 0.7007. The final confirmation of the aussie's development under this scenario will be the price drift below the target level of 0.7171 (September 29, 2021 low). The price drift below this level will probably occur simultaneously with the transition of the Marlin Oscillator to the zone of negative numbers. This synchronicity will strengthen the bearish signal.
On a four-hour chart, the price is completely in a downward trend. Its development takes place under both indicator lines and the Marlin Oscillator goes down in the negative area. Yesterday the price made a false exit above the MACD indicator line and now the downward sentiment of AUD/USD is strengthening.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 7, 2022
The euro slightly fell last Thursday, consolidating ahead of today's US employment data. The forecast is very optimistic: 400,000 new jobs are expected in the non-agricultural sector in December, the unemployment rate may decrease from 4.2% to 4.1%.
The price settled below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator is still hesitating to cross the border with the bears' territory. This will probably happen if the data is not very different from the forecast for the worse - weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the last month came out flat and, we believe, non-farms will also be in the forecast area. As a result, we expect the euro to decline in the next few days to the target level of 1.1170 - to the support area of June 2020.
The price also settled below the MACD line on the four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is already in the negative area. There is pressure on the price, we are waiting for the resolution of the situation with the release of news.
The alternative scenario assumes the price settling above the level of 1.1310 and further growth to the upper border of the 1.5-month range at 1.1222-1.1383.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 10, 2022
Last Friday, after optimistic data on employment in the US, the euro grew by 64 points by the end of the day, on volumes smaller than on Tuesday-Thursday. The euro's growth occurred against the backdrop of rising yields on government bonds and a fall in the stock market. In general, a picture is being created of the withdrawal of capital from US assets, it is likely that there is a reduction in carry-trade operations, and if this is the case, then the euro's growth will be short-term.
Today's opening of the market with a falling gap shows investors' uncertainty about further purchases of the European currency. The euro bulls have two technical levels: 1.1383 - the upper limit of the free-roaming range, 1.1415 - the high of June 2019 and June 2020. We can only consider a medium-term growth of the EUR/USD pair to the target level of 1.1570 after the price breaks above 1.1415. But now we can speak of a decline only after the price returns under the MACD indicator line on the daily scale, below 1.1312.
On the H4 chart, the price is in a growing position - it is above both indicator lines. Growth is supported by the Marlin Oscillator, which is in the positive area. There are no noticeable barriers to the price on the way to 1.1383 (1.1415), especially if today's data on employment in the euro area meet expectations (the forecast for unemployment for November 7.2% versus 7.3% in October), but the price may also return to its original positions Friday on new data on the epidemic, if they show deterioration. We are waiting for the development of events.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2022
Data on unemployment in the euro area for November was published on Monday, they were in line with the forecast - 7.2% against 7.3% in October. But during the day, stock indices fell across the eurozone and the US, and only recovered slightly closer to the close. The euro followed these trends and eventually closed the day with a black candle, but above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, which it had already overcome.
In general, the technical situation does not change; the price is between the support at 1.1310 (MACD line) and the resistances at 1.1383 and slightly above 1.1415. The 1.1383 level is the upper border of the one and a half month sideways trend, the 1.1415 level is a signal for further price growth to 1.1570. Consolidating below 1.1310 will give it the opportunity to first work out the lower border of the range (1.1222), and then attack the support at 1.1170.
On the four-hour scale, at first glance, the situation seems to be ascending - the price is above both indicator lines and the Marlin Oscillator is in the growing trend zone, but this situation has been changing regularly for a month and a half. We are waiting for the price to settle above 1.1383, or below 1.1310 on a daily scale.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2022
On Tuesday, the following happened: from the opening of the day, the euro's price increased by 30 points, then it fell to the MACD line of the daily scale (-40 p) and, rebounding from it, closed the day with an increase of 43 points. The rebound from the MACD line indicates the desire to reach a target level, it can be either the nearest 1.1383 or just above 1.1415. The Marlin Oscillator is close to divergence with the price, and this moment indicates a probable overcoming of the signal level of 1.1383, and also a price reversal without reaching the target 1.1415.
But if the price can settle above 1.1415, then the divergence with the oscillator will not take place and the euro will continue to strengthen in the medium term (target 1.1570).
The price is rising across all indicators on the four-hour chart, but Marlin is growing at a slower pace. Probably, a technical basis is being prepared for a downward price reversal. This is the main scenario.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 13, 2022
Yesterday the euro crossed the area above the nearest bullish target level of 1.1415, showing a total rise of 75 points. The growth, however, did not occur at very high volumes, although at above average. This suggests that the withdrawal of bears' stops - short positions, gained during the period of consolidation since December last year, has not yet happened, these stops are located higher. And if there was an attack on the nearest orders, it will most likely continue. In this case, the euro's target is 1.1570 - the peak of January 2019.
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the target level of 1.1415. The Marlin Oscillator is in the overbought zone, showing an intention to exit it. The price is likely to sag a little before further growth, it will be supported by the level 1.1415, while Marlin will get a release and later continue to move upward.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2022
On Thursday, the euro rose a little more after a strong impulse on Wednesday. The price has settled above the target level of 1.1415, now it becomes a support for the bulls, pushing the price to the target level of 1.1570 – the high of January 2019. Successfully breaking this level opens a higher target - the 1.1700/22 range. The Marlin Oscillator is slightly tilting down, perhaps the further upward movement will not be so fast.
Investors have not been paying attention to macroeconomic statistics in recent days, but today there may be a divergence of data in favor of the euro: in the UK, industrial production in October may show an increase of 0.2%, France's CPI in November may show an increase of 0.2%, CPI Spain +1.3% m/m, the euro area trade balance for November is expected to increase to 7.6 billion euros from 3.6 billion in October, and in the US retail sales for December are forecast to decline by 0.1%. Industrial production in the US for December may show an increase of 0.3%, but for the big picture this is not very convincing.
On the four-hour chart, Marlin has discharged from the overbought zone, and now it is ready to resume growth.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 17, 2022
The corrective consolidation is now complete and the underlying impulsive rally higher to our first target level of 160.54 is taking place. If bulls assert strength, GBP/JPY may go higher to our second target level of 163.39.
Keep the focus on the upside and a break above minor resistance at 157.69 for a continuation towards 160.54 and maybe even higher.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 18, 2022
Yesterday, the quote of the European currency did not break down from the target level of 1.1415 (the June 2019 high), lingered on it, and this morning it shows the intention to rise with the Marlin Oscillator turning up on the daily scale chart. The main scenario - growth to the target level of 1.1570 (the January 2019 high) has been preserved.
The price was supported by the balance indicator line (red) on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways. It can enter the positive area with the price crossing yesterday's high (1.1434). Thus, the level of 1.1434 becomes a confirming level of further growth. Consolidating below the MACD line, below 1.1386, may push the price to the daily MACD line to the area of 1.1310.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 19, 2022
The euro fell by 85 points on Tuesday and came close to the support of the MACD indicator line on the daily chart (1.1305). Crossing this support will mean opening the way to the target of 1.1170 and below (1.1050). The Marlin Oscillator has reached the zero line - the border with the territory of the downward trend, which, along with the proximity of the price to the MACD line, indicates a high probability of an upward reversal - to overcome the target level of 1.1415 and further advance to 1.1570. Moreover, today the price may not choose a further direction, since after yesterday's strong fall, there is a high probability of consolidation. The 1.1305 level is near the August 2018 low, that is, it is quite strong.
On the four-hour chart, the price is below both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator shows a weak desire to reverse. We are waiting for the formation of consolidation before the support of 1.1305 and the subsequent choice by the European currency of the further medium-term direction.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 20, 2022
Yesterday, the euro did not reach the support of the MACD daily indicator line (1.1300). The upward movement from yesterday and this morning looks more like a reversal to the upside than a consolidation before support. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned up from its own zero line, from the border with the downward trend. All these signs suggest that the euro intends to overcome the target level of 1.1415 and continue to grow towards 1.1570.
The departure of the price under the MACD line, under the mark of 1.1300 will naturally open the door to a further decrease to the level of 1.1170.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is in a hurry to leave the negative territory, the price is approaching the MACD indicator line at 1.1387, the transition above which visually coincides with Marlin's transition to the positive area. Such a synchronous signal will increase the growth potential.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 21, 2022
Yesterday, the euro was hit by a sell-off as investors withdrew from risky assets. The US stock index S&P 500 fell by 1.10%. The price has reached the support of the MACD indicator line on the daily scale chart. The oscillator is in the downward trend zone. But, despite the increased pressure on the quotes of the single currency, the question of an upward reversal looks sharper than yesterday, since touching the MACD line from above looks like testing it before medium-term growth. The first growth target is 1.1415, then 1.1570. Consolidating below the MACD line will open a bearish target of 1.1170.
The price converges with the Marlin Oscillator on the four-hour chart. Actually, this circumstance is the main sign of a price reversal to the upside. But the euro remains under pressure, you need to wait at least two more white candles for the divergence to take place, so that there is a visual price reversal. In the meantime, we are waiting for the development of the situation.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 24, 2022
Last Friday, the euro bounced up from MACD's indicator line, blocking Thursday's decline. The probability of the price rising to the nearest target level 1.1415 (June 2019 high) has slightly increased.
The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator went sideways along the neutral zero line. Consolidation is not long, so there may well be a reversal to the upside. Long-term horizontal movements of the oscillator after the signal line exits the overbought zone mainly precede the subsequent decline.
Consolidating below 1.1300 opens the way for the price to 1.1170 (June 2020 support).
The price converged with the Marlin Oscillator on the four-hour chart. The exit above Friday's high (1.1360) will be a signal to attack the price of the MACD line (1.1385). After the price crosses the indicated level, it is likely that the price will consolidate to break through 1.1415. By this time, the Federal Reserve will have announced its decision on monetary policy.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis. EUR/USD daily review on January 25, 2022
Trend analysis (Fig. 1) EUR/USD is likely to decline on Tuesday, from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1299, which is the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). After that it will return to the 14.6% retracement level at 1.1327 (yellow dotted line), then go further upwards.
Fig. 1 (daily chart)
Comprehensive analysis:
Indicator analysis - downtrend
Fibonacci levels - downtrend
Volumes - downtrend
Candlestick analysis - downtrend
Trend analysis - uptrend
Bollinger bands - downtrend
Weekly chart - uptrend
Conclusion: EUR/USD will dip from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1299 (red dotted line), then go to 1.1327, which is the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). It may go further up after reaching that level.
Alternatively, the pair could move from 1.1326 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the lower fractal at 1.1290 (daily candle from 01/24/2022), then climb further to 1.1327, which is the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of Gold for January 26, 2022
Gold is testing the symmetrical triangle resistance-line and a break above here and more importantly a break above 1,877 will confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 towards 2,700 is in motion. As long as the triangle resistance-line is able to cap the upside we could see gold move a little lower to 1,812, but the downside should be limited and it should just be a matter of time before resistance at 1,877 is conquered and the rally towards 2,700 is in motion.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 27, 2022
So, at yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve made it clear that the conditions for a rate hike are ripe, that rates can rise without a negative impact on the labor market, and the first increase will be in March. As a result of the day, the dollar index strengthened by 0.51%, the euro lost 60 points. The yield on 5-year US government bonds increased from 1.564% to 1.678%.
On the whole, the Fed's decision, like any thesis of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, was expected. But the fall of the euro shows that the markets have not yet taken into account the beginning of the US rate hike cycle, as is sometimes expressed in the media. And, perhaps, this is the main idea that has matured as a result of yesterday.
The price settled under both indicator lines on the daily chart – under the balance line and the MACD line. The price is approaching the first bearish target (1.1170) as planned. Consolidation below the level will open the second target (1.1050).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 28, 2022
In line with the general weakening of regional currencies (the US dollar index rose 0.77% yesterday), the Australian dollar fell 81 points yesterday, overcame the first target level of 0.7065 and paused before the target level of 0.7007 this morning. The price drop below this level opens the next target at 0.6950.
On the four-hour chart, by this morning, a weak price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator has formed. The aussie will probably rest a bit under the level of 0.7065 before it declines further.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2022
Last Friday, the euro consolidated under the target resistance level of 1.1170. We expected that this consolidation would precede a further decline towards 1.1050. And in order for the emerging price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator not to take place, otherwise there will be a price reversal upwards, a decrease, at least a small one, already by today.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator rose high enough to reverse again. This signal line may still enter the consolidation range, marked with a gray area, but we expect a quick downward reversal from it.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 3, 2022
The euro ended Wednesday with a growth of 30 points, and the price even settled above the MACD indicator line of the daily scale. Price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is developing. Of course, at first glance, a reversal situation has been created and the target level of 1.1450 is open, but there are several factors hindering growth. The strongest of them is an emerging reversal in adjacent markets - technical signs of a fall have developed in oil and stock indices. A weak factor, but developing in the future, is the reversal of the Marlin Oscillator before the border with the growth territory, which, together with the presence of the balance indicator line (red) above the price, indicates that the euro has grown over the past four days as a correction.
Thus, there is a possibility of the price returning under the MACD line and its subsequent fall to the target level of 1.1060. To confirm the growth, one more day must pass above the MACD line so that Marlin can move into the positive area and confirm this growth.
On the H4 chart, the price is above both indicator lines, Marlin is in growth territory, but is turning down from the overbought zone. The departure of the price under the MACD line, below 1.1250, will confirm the corrective nature of the growth of the euro over the past four days.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2022
Last Friday, despite strong data on employment in the US, the euro was traded at the target level of 1.1450, having reached the high of the day, the peak on January 14th. Consolidating below this level will be the first sign of a price reversal into a deep correction, back to the MACD line, to the level of 1.1300. Along with a consolidation below 1.1450, a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator may be completed. Let's also assume a growth to 1.1496, which looks stronger than 1.1450 as it is the top of stronger reversals in March 2020 and October 2015. The divergence in this case will become more significant. Consolidating above 1.1496 will become a condition for growth to the target range of 1.1700/22.
The Marlin Oscillator is falling sharply on the four-hour chart. The probability of a reversal scenario is 60%. But this reversal is likely only for a correction to the 1.1300 area, from which the euro may turn upward. Consolidating under the MACD line of the daily scale (below 1.1300), further medium-term weakening of the European currency is possible.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2022
As of this morning, the growth situation looks unambiguous for the Australian dollar. The price turned up from the target level of 0.7065 supported by a strong price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale chart. The first growth target is 0.7190, the second target is 0.7227, the third target is 0.7291 – the low of July 2021. A price delay is likely in the 0.7190-0.7227 range, since the MACD line is located in it.
On the four-hour chart, the price is above both indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the upward trend zone. It is interesting to note here that the targets at 0.7190 and 0.7291 coincide with the 110.0% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels. The 0.7291 target will probably be fulfilled. It is likely to be corrected.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 9, 2022
The Australian dollar's growth by 20 points from yesterday confirmed its main scenario of moving into the range of 0.7190-0.7227. The MACD indicator line is located in this range, and here the main question will be decided - whether the price will settle above it and continue its medium-term growth, or turn into a medium-term fall, possibly with the formation of a double convergence.
Growth continues without a hitch on the four-hour scale. The price is growing above the balance and MACD lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. We are waiting for the price to enter the specified range of 0.7190-0.7227 and follow its further behavior.
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