-
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 14, 2021
GBP/USD
In Friday's fall, the pound pierced the support of the MACD indicator line on the daily chart with a lower shadow, and today the market opening was below it. This is a sign of further price declines. The Marlin oscillator has reversed from its own zero line separating the growth zone from the decline zone and is now deepening below. The goal of further movement of 1.1004 is the low on May 13 and the high on March 12.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...77_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the price has completed a false exit above the MACD line for the fifth time in a row. Taking into account the situation on the daily scale, this was probably the last time, now the MACD line at 1.4142 looks even stronger.
The Marlin oscillator is in its lower half, we are waiting for the development of a downward movement.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...3d_source!.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
-
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2021
On Monday, as expected, the euro corrected slightly to the upside and spent the day in the range of expectations for today's US data on manufacturing inflation, retail sales and industrial production. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will make a decision on monetary policy and investors believe that today's good indicators (if they turn out to be such, and which the Fed members already know), will be able to influence the final summary in the direction of tightening. In terms of rhetoric, of course.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e0_source!.jpg
The price is below the balance indicator line on the daily chart, but above the MACD line, which in its semantic meaning defines the price position as neutral with an impending attack on the support of the MACD line (1.2082). The bears' main target is the 1.2051 level, surpassing it would open the next target at 1.1934 - the lower border of the price channel of the weekly timeframe.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...a4_source!.jpg
On the H4 chart, the line of the Marlin oscillator begins to smoothly turn downward. Perhaps yesterday's peak at 1.2131 is the upper border of the current consolidation.
We are waiting for the attack on the support of the MACD line of the daily timeframe in the area of the 1.2082 mark.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
-
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 16, 2021
So the decisive day has come, determining the fate of the euro in the medium term. Today, the Federal Reserve meeting will take place, at which the beginning of a discussion on changing monetary policy can be announced. Yesterday's US report came out very well by the way: industrial production increased by 0.8% in May against the forecast of 0.6%, the producer price index (PPI) for the same period added 0.8% against expectations of 0.5%, the base PPI added 0.7%. Against this background, the trade balance of the euro zone in April showed a deterioration from 18.3 billion euros to 9.4 billion. And it is even surprising that yesterday the euro did not surpass the support of the MACD line on the daily chart (1.2084).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...f3_source!.jpg
Nevertheless, the price did not overcome the resistance of the red balance indicator line, which gives an indication of the downward trend's control over the situation. Today we expect to overcome the target level 1.2051. A little later, the price may reach the lower border of the price channel at 1.1942.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...2f_source!.jpg
There is no additional information on the four-hour timescale, unless the price also rose above the balance line and Marlin did not leave the downward trend zone.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
-
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 17, 2021
The British pound dropped 91 points on Wednesday, breaking the first target of the bears at 1.4004. Now the second target (1.3918) is open - the high on April 6. The 1.3800 level is the low on May 3.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...48_source!.jpg
The price settled below the target level of 1.4004 on the four-hour time scale, the Marlin oscillator is discharging after a quick move into the oversold zone. Upon completion of the correction, we expect the price to further decline to the specified target level of 1.3918.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...fe_source!.jpg
[B]*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.[B]
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURNZD approaching descending trendline resistance! Drop Incoming!
Price is approaching 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. A short term drop below our 1st resistance at 1.70255 towards 1st support at 1.69560 could be possible. Stochastic is testing resistance where price pulledback in the past.
Trading Recommendation
Entry: 1.70255
Reason for Entry:
78.6% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance
Take Profit: 1.69560
Reason for Take Profit:
-27.2% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical overlap support
Stop Loss: 1.70583
Reason for Stop Loss:
Graphical swing high resistance
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June!
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has been seen going lower again after the breakout to the downside from the consolidation zone. The next target for bears is the long term trend line support around the level of 1.1795 (marked as orange line on the daily time frame chart). Any violation below this line would trigger another wave down towards the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1704. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.1986.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2305
WR2 - 1.2222
WR1 - 1.2007
Weekly Pivot - 1.1927
WS1 - 1.1702
WS2 - 1.1620
WS3 - 1.1401
Trading Recommendations:
The distribution cycle had been completed and now the market is on the move down. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro gained 55 points from the target level it achieved on Monday and is currently showing a decline this morning. Perhaps,it might surpass the first price support on the way to the mid-term decline of 1.1855 by today or tomorrow and then the euro will continue to decline. The next target is 1.1705 - the March 31 low. The Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart seems to have fallen deep enough that the rate of decline might slow down.
On a four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn around from its own zero line, which characterizes yesterday's growth as a moderate correction. Exit above Friday's high at 1.1926 will bring the oscillator into the zone of positive values. This pattern will allow the price to strengthen the corrective growth, possibly even to the MACD line to the level of 1.1990, where the H4 shows a micro consolidation from the 17th.
The continuation of the decline is considered as the main option, as it has a 55% probability. The deepening of the correction to 1.1990 is accepted as an alternative, but it provides the opportunity to enter the market with short positions at the best price.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 23, 2021
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d4_source!.jpg
The euro ended with an increase of 22 points on Tuesday. This morning the price is going down, the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale is starting to turn down.
Outwardly, the price looks in a neutral state and there are reasons for this - investors are waiting for the release of the PMI of the eurozone and the United States for the current month and sales of new homes in the United States in May. The data is expected to be mixed, so investors are in no hurry to take succeeding actions. Nevertheless, according to our system of indicator lines, the price should not (conditionally) return to the MACD line (1.2070) in the near future, the level of 1.1705 is still the target.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...14_source!.jpg
The price is developing along the signal line of 1.1926 on the four-hour chart, but this line seems to be out of place here, in fact, the price is ignoring it. Like yesterday, the probability of the MACD line working out in the area of the 1.1984 level remains. The Marlin oscillator is in a neutral situation. Moving below the target level of 1.1855 opens the target at 1.1705.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on June 24, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar took on higher commitments yesterday and bravely stepped out of the embedded price channel line. The Marlin oscillator keeps the market interest in buying yesterday and today in a growing position.
Our main scenario is a downward one, but if the price overcomes yesterday's high, it is possible that the growth will continue to the level of 0.7647 - to the low on June 3. A price return below the price channel line below 0.7552 will return the price to a downward mood. The closest target will be the level 0.7490.
On the four-hour chart, the price met an obstacle to growth from the side of the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is flat, but declining. We are waiting for the price to settle below the level of 0.7552 and a further decline to 0.7490.
According to the alternative scenario, after consolidation above 0.7600, growth to 0.7647 is possible.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas for June 28, 2021
Natural Gas just complete a cup with handle bottom calling for a rally towards 5.26. We currently see support at the cup with handle neckline at 3.40 and key support that should be able to protect the downside is seen at 3.13.
Longer term we will be looking for much higher levels, but expect resistance in the 4.92 - 5.26 zone should spark a period of consolidation before the next push higher towards 6.13 - 6.49 as the next target zone
Trading recommendation:
Buy Natural Gas or UNG to get exposure and place you stop at 3.10 for the rally to the 4.92 - 5.26 target-zone
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on June 30, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 54 points on Tuesday and so it settled below the line of the descending price channel (0.7542). The Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative area, the price has 25 points left before moving below the nearest target level of 0.7490. After that, the target range 0.7400/10 had become active.
The price settled below the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, below the level of the price channel at 0.7542, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative area with no signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the price to move down even further.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for June 30, 2021
Technical outlook:
EURUSD is still testing its support trend line since March 2020 lows around 1.1885/90 today. It needs to break into the sell zone to accelerate further lower towards 1.1700 going forward. A bullish bounce here might produce a pullback rally towards 1.2030 levels before reversing lower again. Overall structure continues to remain bearish until prices stay below 1.2266 levels.
EURUSD is trading near the intraday low around 1.1885/88 at this point in writing and is expected to break lower towards 1.1730/40 soon. Immediate support is seen through 1.1700 while resistance is fixed at 1.2266 levels respectively. In case of a gartley being produced here, the counter trend rally could reach 1.2000 handle, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent down swing.
EURUSD potential remains to drop towards 1.1300 at least in the next few weeks time. It could further extend lower through 1.0636 mark and attempt a break below its March 2020 lows.
Trade plan:
Remain short for now, stop @ 1.2266, target is @ 1.1300.
Good luck!
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 2, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, as expected, the euro spent the whole day at the target level of 1.1855 in anticipation of today's data on US employment. The data is expected to be good: the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change (new jobs in the non-agricultural sector) for June is 700,000, the unemployment rate may drop to 5.7% from the latest data of 5.8%. Also, the volume of industrial orders for May is forecast to grow by 1.6%. We are waiting for the price to fall even further and reach the target level of 1.1705.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the H4 chart was flat yesterday. The short-term exit above the MACD line once again showed the falsity of such an intention and strengthened the downward trend. We are waiting for the development of events.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 5, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar appears to have overreacted to the weakness in the US dollar on the day the US employment data was released. AUD/USD gained 57 points. The embedded price channel line at 0.7540 is close to a retest.
The general trend for the pair, of course, remains downward, but settling above 0.7540 can still fuel the correction. Under favorable circumstances, it is possible for the aussie to rise to the June 25 high at 0.7618.
But external circumstances are not yet favorable. Last Friday, different brands of oil closed mixed, iron ore fell 0.6%, and this morning, Pacific stock indexes show mixed dynamics. In such a situation, we should wait until Tuesday, when US investors return to work, and track their further intentions.
The price settled above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator, after its own consolidation, went up into the zone of positive values. Today, the aussie might move sideways.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 6, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro showed a symbolic decline by 2 points on Monday, as US players were absent on the market. Technically, this highlighted the weakness of convergence on the daily chart, which could easily be transformed into any other formation.
On the other hand, the price has also formally settled above the target level of 1.1855, and if the price rises steadily today, the convergence may change its appearance into a more readable one. If the gain is not strong, then the Marlin oscillator may form a sideways range, as shown by the gray area on the chart.
Marlin is already on the horizon, and on the zero line on the four-hour chart. The price settled above the MACD line, but below the balance line (red indicator).
In general, the probability of price growth is 55%. With the price moving below the MACD line at H4 (1.1845), the probability of a further decline to the target level 1.1705 will increase to 65%. One can speak of a confident decline from the euro only after the price has surpassed the July 2 low of 1.1806.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 7, 2021
EUR/JPY has seen a deep correction in red wave ii, but should stay above the low of red wave i at 130.04 for the next rally higher towards the long-term target at 135.41 where wave 3/ will be 161.8% the length of wave 1/.
Short-term we would like to see a break above minor resistance at 131.66 as a confirmation that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii higher towards 135.41 is in motion.
Under this count support at 130.04 can't be broken or a revision of our bullish count will be needed.
Trading recommendation:
Buy EUR and place you stop at 130.00 for a rally towards 135.41
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro was declining during the day, in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC minutes and at the time it took place, the single currency practically already took into account the expected tonality in the price. There were no surprises, the Federal Reserve expects further improvement in the labor market and does not show any worries about inflation.
As a result, the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart continues to form (in the event of a stronger fall in the price, Marlin would go down more clearly). Nevertheless, the main scenario remains the development of the 1.1705 target level, and the slowness of the oscillator indicates the potential for a larger decline in the euro - to the second target level of 1.1640.
On a four-hour scale, the price reversed to the downside from the MACD indicator line. Here, too, there is still an opportunity to further the formation of convergence. But similar to the situation on the daily chart, the slowness of the oscillator towards a reversal preserves the potential for a deeper decline into the oversold zone.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for July 09, 2021
Technical outlook:
EURUSD still remains vulnerable for a drop to the 1.1700/20 levels before pulling back for a meaningful counter trend rally. Until prices break above 1.1975 interim high, bears remain in a position to drag lower towards 1.1700 in the short term. As discussed yesterday, long term traders might hold short positions while short term traders might want to take profits around 1.1700.
EURUSD is seen to be trading around the 1.1832 level at this point in writing and is expected to turn lower towards yet another low below 1.1750 mark. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1975 while support comes in around the 1.1700 level respectively. Also note that prices are breaking below its 15 month old trend line support, which is quite bearish.
EURUSD medium term potential remains to the 1.1300 and 1.0636 level respectively. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of past rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 is also seen to be passing through 1.1300 levels hence probabilities for a bullish bounce remains high. At the moment, we shall watch out for a temporary pullback rally around the 1.1700 mark.
Trading plan:
Remain short, stop @ 1.2350, target @ 1.1300 and lower.
Good luck!
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 12, 2021
USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair correctively rose after it reached the target level. This rise was preceded by a five-day decline. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has slowed down and is ready to resume falling in case the price weakens.
The dollar, of course, still has room for growth. The main resistance on the daily chart is the embedded price channel line and the MACD indicator line (110.70). A reversal into a new wave of decline may occur before these lines are reached.
On the four-hour scale chart, the first resistance and the target of the correction is the nearest local extremum at 110.40. Above it is the MACD line, and in approximately the same area where it is located on the daily scale - 110.70. This circumstance also indicates the correction limit. Rising above the level, and settling above it, breaks the main scenario of a medium-term decline.
Moving below the target level of 109.80 (high on May 13) will trigger a move towards the target level of 109.20 (low on June 8).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 13, 2021
USD/JPY
The yen remains the most difficult currency in the last month, its fluctuations occur with a periodic change of drivers - it is the stock market, then the fluctuations of the US dollar. As a result, the yen has been trading in a wide range of 109.55-111.65 for a month and a half. Yesterday, the S&P 500 gained 0.35%, the dollar index rose 0.14%, which has already consistently pulled the USD/JPY pair up 23 points.
Now the price faces the task of rising above the daily MACD line at 110.74, then the way to the target level 111.39 will open. This mark (110.74) also coincides with the central line of the growing lilac price channel, so the subsequent growth may be above the first target level.
The price is struggling with the local target level of 110.40 on the H4 chart. Surpassing it will indicate an attack on the MACD line at 110.64. Consolidating above this indicator line will be a preparation for an attack on the daily MACD line (110.74). To restore the downward movement, the price needs to go below the level of 109.80, which is more difficult to do at the moment.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 14, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 32 points yesterday, which nevertheless showed an inclination towards a downward scenario.
The Marlin oscillator is still inside its own wedge, but the intention to get out of it (to the downside) is indicated by yesterday's movement. The first target at 0.7410 is the July 9th low, then the embedded price channel line at 0.7370.
The price settled below both balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator consolidated in the downward trend area on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for development according to the main scenario. Consolidating above the MACD line, above 0.7470, may once again encourage the price to test the price channel line in the 0.7517 area. Consolidating above it will cancel the main descending scenario.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of the S&P 500 for July 15, 2021
The S&P 500 index is now within striking distance of our long-term target at 4,444. At the same time we are seeing a clear loss of upside momentum indicating that continued upside progress will prove difficult. Short-term it will take a break below support at 4,139 to indicate that a top is in place and a larger corrective decline is in motion. A break below support at 4,035 will confirm that a five wave rally from the March 2020 low at 2,182 has completed and at least this rally now needs to be corrected. We do think that the ongoing wave 5 completes an even larger five wave rally back from March 2009 indicating an even larger corrective decline.
However, for now and as long as minor support at 4,139 is able to protect the downside we should look for a final pop to 4,444 to complete the ongoing impulsive rally from 2,182.
Trading recommendation:
Consider selling the S&P 500 index near 4,444 or upon a break below 4,139. If you are long the S&P 500 index tighten you stop to 4,139
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro fell by 23 points on Thursday, having not decided to retest the target level of 1.1855. The growth of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator inside its own channel has stopped, now it is possible to reduce it and exit the channel downwards. The first target of the euro is 1.1705 - the low on March 31.
The price has settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is declining in the negative zone – in the declining trend area. We are waiting for the price to fall further towards the specified goal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2021
EUR/USD
Friday's report on retail sales in the United States for June exceeded expectations: the total volume showed an increase of 0.6% against the forecast of -0.4%, the core index added 1.3% (forecast 0.4%). The dollar index strengthened by 0.14%, but the euro fell by only 7 points. But the mood kept falling, technical indicators support it.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slowly moving to the lower border of its own local rising channel. Exit from it to the downside will accelerate the euro's decline. The first target at 1.1705 is the March low.
The price and oscillator have formed triangles on the 4-hour chart. The synchronous output of the price and the oscillator from the triangles down can also set momentum for a downward movement. The signal level is Friday's low at 1.1792.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 20, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar hit its first bearish target at 0.7344 yesterday. Further supports and targets are close: 0.7295, 0.7244 (high on October 9, 2020), but such a move is also indirectly due to the potential convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily timescale (dashed line), which slows down movement and increases intraday volatility.
The price is holding on to the reached level on a four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is turning up, and today a slight correction is likely after the previous three-day decline.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 21, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is slowly declining amid technical constraints - the price fluctuates between the adjacent price channel lines and below the target level of 0.7344, which is also located between these lines.
Overcoming yesterday's low at 0.7301 opens the nearest target at 0.7244. A price reversal from this level to the upside is possible under the influence of the emerging convergence with the Marlin oscillator. Potential correction may continue up to the MACD line. At 0.7500, it intersects with the embedded price channel line.
The price shows an intention to break through support at 0.7301 on the four-hour chart. The impetus for this was set by weak retail sales in Australia in May, which showed a decrease of -1.8%. The Marlin oscillator is turning down in the downward trend area. We are waiting for the aussie to move towards the specified goal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 26, 2021
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair volatility is subdued, which is typical for a Falling Wedge pattern in progress. The strong technical support had been established at the level of 1.1761 and the bears had failed to break through it many times. In a case of a breakout ot the upside, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1820 (the key short-term resistance) and 1.1850. The corrective cycle can be terminated if the level of 1.1883 is clearly broken. The rising momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1888
WR2 - 1.1859
WR1 - 1.1808
Weekly Pivot - 1.1781
WS1 - 1.1732
WS2 - 1.1699
WS3 - 1.1653
Trading Recommendations:
The down trend continues with a new swing low being made around the level of 1.1761. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704 and the Falling Wedge pattern is being made around this level. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 27, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro rose by 33 points, while the Marlin oscillator entered the growth zone on the daily chart. Now the price can boldly attack the nearest target level of 1.1850. Consolidating above it will mean that the price is ready to attack the MACD line, moreover, at the point of its intersection with the target level of 1.1925. Consolidating above the level opens the prospect of growth at 1.2050 - to the low on May 13. It could possibly decline after the price breaks through the July 21 low at1.1752. In this case, the Marlin Oscillator will be able to exit the rising channel and move down.
The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Consolidating below it, below the level of 1.1800, introduces the price into the uncertainty zone up to the level of 1.1752. This uncertainty can be set by the expectations of market participants regarding the results of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. With the price breaking through yesterday's peak at 1.1817, it could continue to rise to 1.1850.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 28, 2021
EUR/USD Before today's Federal Reserve meeting, the euro strengthened the reversal trend. Yesterday, another such sign of a reversal was a wide-range day of 71 points with a final rising close. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in positive territory within its own channel. The price's exit above the target level of 1.1850 will confirm the reversal and send the price to the target level of 1.1925, which is approaching the MACD indicator line.
It is very likely that investors strongly doubt the tightening of the Fed's rhetoric even after good economic data. The main reason for such doubts is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the United States. Also on the agenda is a new problem for the United States – the completion of the legally approved deadline for increasing the national debt. Last week, the Minister of Finance, Janet Yellen, has already submitted a letter to Congress asking for an early resolution of this issue due to increased economic uncertainty (due to the pandemic) and a high proportion of retiring public sector workers. As usual, raising the national debt limit is a favorite object for trading between the chambers of Congress and this is not good for the dollar.
On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance and MACD lines after a false short-term departure under them. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in this struggle turned exactly from the zero line up. We are waiting for the development of the upward movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday's economic data played into the hands of strategic buyers of the euro - even on average volumes, the single currency gained 43 points - this is the largest daily growth of the week. Unemployment in Germany in July decreased from 5.9% to 5.7%, the index of manufacturing sentiment in the euro area for the current month increased from 12.8 to 14.6, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany increased from 2.1% y/y up to 3.1% y/y. And in the US, GDP for the second quarter showed an increase of 6.5% against the forecast of 8.5% and the previous figure was revised down from 6.4% to 6.3%. US reports were even summed up by applications for unemployment benefits - the weekly figure was 400,000 against the forecast of 380,000. Today there are data on expenses and income of individuals for June. Revenues are forecast to decline 0.3% after the previous -2.0%, expenses may increase 0.7% versus the previous 0.9%. Such data is able to push for the euro's growth.
The price stopped at the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left its own channel upwards, now, after a short break, the price will attack the important resistance at 1.1925, consolidating above which opens the target at 1.2050.
The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. The Marlin Oscillator has turned down, but this appears as a discharge of the indicator before further growth. The correction limit is seen at the level 1.1850.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 2, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro fell 18 points last Friday, likely on partial closings since the start of the week, as trading volumes were above average. On the daily scale chart, the price found the indicator line of the balance with rather strong resistance in the current situation, the decline reached the target level 1.1850.
The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is on the upper channel line. If this signal line returns to the channel, the previous exit will become false, and then the lower channel line may be reached, which will lead the euro to return to last month's high. Now this option seems unlikely, but for sustainable growth, investors still have to switch from risk aversion to risk buying, which means buying back the euro against positive US data and following the stock markets, if, of course, their growth continues. In this regard, today will be an indicative day. US construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in June, while the July ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 60.6 to 60.9. If on the positive data the euro shows growth, then overcoming the target level of 1.1925 will be a matter of the near future, and then the price will go to the target level of 1.2050 - to the low on May 13.
On a four-hour scale chart, the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator begins to reverse from the zero line upward after the last session has been discharged. The upward trend is not broken.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 3, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the US PMIs came out mixed, not very convincing, and failed to provide the indicator of investor risk sentiment that we expected. The final Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was raised from 63.1 to 63.4, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI was even worse: 59.5 versus 60.6 in June. As a result, the euro ended the day at the close of Friday - no price change. The next event that can show the risk sentiment of the big players will be Friday's employment release from the Labor Department. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 880-920,000, the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.9% to 5.7%. The euro's growth at such powerful indicators will undoubtedly set a medium-term weakening of the dollar in all markets, the fall of the euro will show the resilience of investors to the expectation of a tightening of monetary policy.
The price does not dare to go beyond the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart, which will lead it to fight the resistance of the MACD line (1.1925 and higher). Also, the price is still hesitating to overcome the lower level of 1.1847 (low on June 18), so that, after consolidating below it, returns to the downward track. This is hindered by the growing Marlin oscillator.
The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero neutral line on the four-hour scale. The MACD line (1.1834) is below the level of 1.1847, so consolidating below the price level without settling below the MACD line will not be enough for a confident bearish signal.
Thus, the euro is in a neutral situation, investors went into standby mode. Although, if they still have an intention to take risks, then the unhurried growth of the euro may last until the very release of data on US employment. Doubt in the presence of such sentiments is caused by yesterday's drop in stock indices (S&P 500 -0.19%), however, this may just be a reaction to vague PMI.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 4, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro situation has not changed over the past day, the technical picture has been preserved in all its details. On a daily scale, the price is below the balance indicator line and slightly above the target level of 1.1847.
The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways in an upward trend area. Consolidating below 1.1847 will put the euro back on track for medium-term weakening. For the growth to develop, the price needs to settle above the MACD line and the target level of 1.1925. Market participants are awaiting Friday's US employment data.
The price is above both indicator lines on the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone, the overall situation is neutral. For the development of a downward movement, the price must go below the MACD line (1.1837), that is, even below the level of 1.1847.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on August 5, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar fell 15 points under pressure from the US dollar, which gained 0.22%. The aussie has not lost the upward sentiment - the Marlin oscillator has settled in the upward trend zone.
Reaching the target level of 0.7474 in the area of the trend line of the price channel is still the main scenario. A lot of work needs to be done to restore the decline - to go down below the level of the lower line of the price channel at 0.7333.
The price managed to stay above the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is currently attacking the border of the growth area, the trend is upward.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 6, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the stock and foreign exchange markets did not take any action in anticipation of today's data on US employment. The euro, being under technical pressure, dropped slightly, consolidating below the target level of 1.1847. The euro is preventing the euro from working out the bearish target of 1.1705 by the Marlin Oscillator, which is reluctantly declining, being in the zone of the rising trend.
The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is wide: 780-895,000, but this is not so much an optimistic factor as negative - if the indicator is closer to the lower bound of forecasts, even such an optimistic one, will have a negative impact on the dollar - resistance at 1.1925 can be overcome. Strong non-farms will send the euro to the lower target of 1.1705.
The price has settled below the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the zone of negative values, the current moment is decreasing. But today fundamental factors prevail, so only the data release will set the direction of the European currency.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 9, 2021
EUR/USD
Last Friday, the euro fell by 73 points (-0.60%) due to strong data on employment in the US, but not at very high volumes. They were approximately equal to the volume of Wednesday, when the weak report on employment in the private sector was released. Nevertheless, the market's reaction was qualitative: the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 0.678% to 0.774%, the market expectation for the rate in December dropped from the likely holding of the rate at the current level from 100% to 90%, oil lost 1.39% , gold -2.51%.
This market effect allows us to consider the dollar's appreciation in the perspective of several days. The target of the movement is the level 1.1705 - the March low. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is currently pushing through the border with the territory of decline.
On the four-hour chart, there is a suspension after a sharp Friday movement, the Marlin oscillator turns up a little, perhaps today there will be a consolidation of prices before continuing to decline on Tuesday.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 10, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro was down 25 points. There are 30 points left to the target level of 1.1705, but the euro is already showing signs of an upward reversal. On a daily scale, the Marlin Oscillator has penetrated into the downward trend zone; there is still a possibility of reaching the target level.
If we accept the version about yesterday's decline in counterdollar currencies due to a strong fall in gold, which fell 4.4% in the Asian session and closed the day by -1.89%, then its expected recovery today may prevent the euro from continuing to decline.
On a four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is turning upward, forming a slight convergence with the price:
Now the euro is in the consolidated wandering zone - the lower border of this zone is defined by the target level of 1.1705, the upper border is formally the MACD line, but it is quite high, therefore, most likely, the euro's exit from such uncertainty will largely depend on the time factor, that is the market needs to wait about a day for the MACD line to go down. Consolidating above it will return the euro to growth. Settling below 1.1705 opens the target at 1.1640.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 11, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro continued its inertial decline and almost reached the target level of 1.1705. Consolidating below the level may extend the decline to the second target at 1.1640, but the price has little chance of that, as the reversal signals are getting stronger. The Marlin Oscillator is planning an upward reversal on the daily scale in order to leave the downward trend.
The convergence of the price and the oscillator is forming on the four-hour chart:
But it won't be soon before the fixed reversal signal - the price has moved away from the MACD line and the reverse transition above it will take place no earlier than two days. At the moment it is 1.1775. Until this moment, the price can swing freely in the shaded area.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on August 12, 2021
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound made its first attempt to overcome the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart. The trading range was wide, more than 80 points, so the price was limited only to testing this line.
Today the pound started the Asian session with growth, so there is a good chance that today the MACD line (1.3887) will be overcome. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turns up from the lower border of the channel. We anticipate the pound's rise to 1.4069.
The price is consolidating in front of the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin has settled in a growing trend. We are waiting for another upward price surge.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on August 13, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar was down 39 points yesterday, and this movement was enough for the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator to work out the neutral zero line on the daily scale.
Now an upward reversal is planned from this border (arrow). But the aussie has not enough strength to grow, in general the price is decreasing along the line of the price channel, and if the price moves below the August 10 low (0.7317), it may drop to the target level of 0.7244. Growth may develop to target levels 0.7520 and 0.7590 only when the price rises above the MACD line, above 0.7405.
The situation for the pair is even weaker on the four-hour chart. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator returned to negative territory yesterday. At the moment, the price is at an equal distance from the bearish signal level of 0.7317 and from the MACD line (0.7360), the transition above which will be a signal to attack the MACD line of the higher timeframe at 0.7405. We can only wait for the development of the situation.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
