-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elon Musk continues to manipulate the currency market
Once again, news from Elon Musk, who has recently become extremely interested in the cryptocurrency market, comes out. Recall that at first, his comment on the social network led to an increase in bitcoin by $5 thousand, and then his company Tesla announced the purchase of bitcoin in the amount of $1.5 billion, which provoked an increase of another $5,000. Thus, in principle, only Elon Musk is responsible for a fifth of the cost of the "cue ball" at this time. It's scary to imagine what will happen if Musk or other similar businessmen comment on cryptocurrencies every couple of days. However, Musk decided to give bitcoin a break and switched to the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. In the social network Twitter, Musk made a post in which he supports the potential solution of large holders of the Dogecoin. According to Musk, the problem with the token is that it is concentrated in too narrow a circle of owners. After this statement, Dogecoin fell by 19%. Earlier, the same Elon Musk commented on the same cryptocurrency Dogecoin (wrote that it is undervalued) and then followed a powerful growth. Thus, only one owner of Tesla is responsible for four powerful jumps in the cryptocurrency market and this is only in the last 7-10 days. Well, traders can once again personally observe what is happening in the cryptocurrency market and what are the reasons for this. Bitcoin, by the way, this night again rose in price and is already worth almost $50,000 per coin. At the same time, it is still extremely difficult to name at least one fundamental reason why the cryptocurrency has grown 5 times in a few months. And it's not just Bitcoin that's growing! Other cryptocurrencies are also being pulled up, ergo, the entire cryptocurrency market is growing. The more news of this nature from Elon Musk or other major investors and companies we will receive, the more likely it is that cryptocurrencies will continue to grow in price. We continue to insist that sooner or later there will be a collapse. There will not be a scenario in which bitcoin will grow to $100,000 per coin, and then adjust to $80,000 and remain at this level in the medium term. No, when large investors start taking profits on long positions, then the "domino effect" will begin, everyone will immediately rush to sell bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies at the maximum value, which will lead to the collapse of the entire cryptocurrency market, as it was already in 2017. Therefore, we still believe that bitcoin is a great tool to make money, but we need to be prepared for its collapse.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 17, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro failed to take the opportunity to reach the 1.2190-1.2272 range. The excellent European ZEW Economic Sentiment did not even provide support to the euro, which grew from 58.3 to 69.6 while expectations were at 59.2, and the GDP for the fourth quarter showed a decline of -0.6% against the forecasts at -0.7%. But investors were happy with the growth of activity in the manufacturing sector in New York, which showed an increase from 3.5 to 12.1. As a result, the euro lost 23 points in a day.
Today, investors have more serious reasons for strengthening the dollar: retail sales for January are forecast to grow by 1.1%, industrial production is expected to grow by 0.5%.
The price moves back down below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, while the Marlin indicator also returns to the downward trend zone. Now the price is facing the 1.1870-1.1915 target.
The price also goes under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin has already consolidated in the zone of negative values. We look forward to further weakening of the euro.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 18
The situation with COVID-19 is stabilizing. There is a strong decline in incidence in both United States and Europe. In fact, the US steadily recorded new cases below 100,000.
Vaccinations are also starting to progress rapidly, but only in the US and Britain.
EUR/USD is trading downwards. Primarily, this is because of strong economic data from the US.
Open short positions from 1.2080 to 1.2125.
Price will continue to decline if employment data (in the US) also comes out better than expected.
Wave Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 19, 2021
AUD/USD
The support of the balance indicator line has confirmed its impact on the price. After reaching the lower shadow, the price successfully broke through the entire range of 0.7765/83 and closed the day inside it. However, it is now trying to leave it in order to decline. In this case, the price should consolidate below yesterday's low, and move below the balance indicator line. If so, we can expect the downward trend to extend to the target range of 0.7625/41. The Marlin Oscillator is in the area of positive levels, and thus, we should get ready to break through this today.
In the H4 chart, yesterday's low of 0.7732 is located below the MACD line (blue moving average). This level can be a good pivot point to determine the price's intention to continue its decline. Here, the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative trend zone. It is possible that an attack on the signal level of 0.7732 will be made today, but the development can only be expected next week.
Wave Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2021
GBP/USD
The pound was trying to reach the target level of 1.4070 on the reversing Marlin oscillator last Friday and also this morning. The price, especially with the support from the growth of other world currencies, still has the opportunity not only to reach this level, but also to rise above it. But if there is no such support, the price will return to the 1.3950/65 range and, after settling below it, will go further down to the target level of 1.3835.
The four-hour chart shows that the probability of forming a divergence with the Marlin oscillator still remains, only it will be weaker. The divergence will not be broken if the price rises to the 1.4070 level. To open short positions, you are advised to wait for the price to settle under the range of 1.3950/65.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 24, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro stopped rising on its way to the nearest target of 1.2190, but it is still determined to reach not only this target, but also 1.2272. Drifting under the MACD line, below 1.2105, will return the euro to a downward trend.
The price rises on the four-hour timescale, while the Marlin oscillator turns up. We are waiting for the price to overcome the first target at 1.2190.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 25, 2021
USD/JPY
The US dollar showed a significant increase against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. Thus, it is now possible not only to reach the target range of 106.50/65 in the near future, but also to break through it, with the aim to rise further towards the target range of 107.35/50.
The price consolidated above both the balance indicator (red) and MACD lines in the H4 chart. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator is in the upper zone. The upward trend is likely to strengthen after the price managed to break through the February 17 high set at 106.23.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 26, 2021
GBP/USD
The technical spike, that the British pound formed on Thursday, completely worked out yesterday - the pair dropped 128 points. The price reached the target range of 1.3950/65 this morning. Falling below the lower border of this range opens the next target at 1.3830 - the low on February 17. A correction is likely from this level, since by this time the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will reach the border with the territory of the downtrend and, most likely, will not overcome it on the first attempt.
The price settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - balance and MACD, while Marlin is deeply in the negative zone. The trend is completely downward.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 1, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro fell by 99 points last Friday, broke through the support of the MACD line, but the Marlin oscillator only touched the border of the downward trend area and now a correction is taking place.
The downward momentum is set strong, we are waiting for the price to move to the 1.1870-1.1915 target range. From the specified range, we expect a correction of the order of one figure, afterwards it could fall again (1.1760). The nearest target, however, is 1.2023, but in order to reach it, it is necessary to overcome Friday's low, as shown on the four-hour chart.
The trend is completely downward on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin signal line is slightly to the upside, showing the current correction.
So, we are waiting for the price to surpass the signal level of 1.2062.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 2, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro traded in a range of 74 points, closing the day with a decline and consolidation below the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The balance line shows the market mood within the trend, the MACD line determines the trend itself. Now the price is approaching the target level of 1.2023, identified at the February 17 low. Getting the price to settle below it opens targets like 1.1915, then 1.1870. The Marlin oscillator is in a downward trend zone.
The price continues to fall without signs of a reversal on the four-hour chart:
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 3, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar moved higher yesterday with the support of the Marlin oscillator, which has penetrated the area of the rising trend on the daily chart. But since this is a correctional growth, we do not expect a succeeding significant growth in price. There is an increase in prices on the commodity market and AUD/USD will feel a little better than European currencies, albeit without a pronounced growth.
The correction continues on the four-hour chart, the growth limit is seen in the area of the MACD line, near the level of 0.7875. After getting the price to settle below the target range of 0.7765/83, we expect it to fall to the range of 0.7625/41 (peak on December 17, 2020).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forecast for GBP/USD on March 4, 2021
Yesterday, the British pound briefly jumped above the target range of 1.3950/65 and returned below its lower bound. The price continues to moderately decline at the moment. The Marlin oscillator is preparing to move into the negative zone, which will strengthen the decline to the first target level 1.3822. Then we wait for the quote at the MACD line in the 1.3727 area - in the accumulation range of the last decade of January.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...9f_source!.jpg
The Marlin oscillator is already in the downward trend zone on the four-hour chart, we are waiting for a succeeding decline from the pair.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...33_source!.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 5, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar was expectedly supported by the leading currencies. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.69%. At the same time, the Australian dollar hardly lost much (46 points), pausing at the support of the MACD line. And then, it did the main thing – During the Asian trading session, it broke through the support and quickly declined. The Marlin oscillator has forcefully entered the downward trend zone. Thus, the situation has become completely declining.
On the daily chart, the targets are set at 0.7615, 0.7565, 0.7500, 0.7375. The medium-term target of the AUD/USD pair is located at 0.7170 level, from which there was a formation of complex consolidations last summer and autumn 2020.
The MACD signal line in the H4 chart has left the consolidation at the zero level below (gray area on the chart), and is going deeper into this negative zone. The situation is fully downward.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 8, 2021
USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair continued its intensive growth, reaching above the target level of 108.16. Visually, the price will close today with a white candle, but the Marlin oscillator has already reached the overbought zone and is planning a reversal from the upper limit of its own growing channel. This morning came the data on Japan's balance of payments for January, which showed a deterioration in the indicator: 0.647 trillion yen versus December 1.166 trillion and forecasted 1.23 trillion yen. The data, of course, does not contribute to risk appetite (Nikkei 225 adds 0.2% against the background of the Australian S&P/ASX 200 1.20%). But nevertheless, stock indexes are growing and keeping the dollar from a deep correction. It is possible that the correction will not go even under the overcome level of 108.16 (the top of July 1, 2020), so today can be closed with a small black candle. And tomorrow, the growth will continue to the previously defined target of 109.10. From this level, a deeper correction is already likely and the exit of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the growing channel will become false, it will return to it later.
There are no reversal signs on the four-hour chart, only the Marlin slightly decreases with the last three candles growing, but this is still not a trend and not a signal for a reversal. We are waiting for developments. Today, the main factor is time.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 9, 2021
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro decided to go down from its local price channel. Now the following target levels are ahead: 1.1800 (low of November 23, 2020), 1.1745 (low of November 11), 1.1688-1.1700. The main target is the last one- the 1.1688-1.1700 range, which is referenced by the low on October 15, 2020.
The price divergence with the oscillator develops on the four-hour scale, but if it is not broken today, then only a nominal correction is expected, to the lower border of the price channel, from which the price left yesterday (1.1880).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 10, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 68 points. And although it did not try to break through the support level of 0.7615, it managed to work out the resistance of the MACD line on the daily time frame. This morning, the price is declining again, so we should still expect it to fall further towards the 0.7615 mark. Meanwhile, commodity markets have outlined a decline, which supports the currency pair. In this case, a prolonged decline can be expected tomorrow, when the ECB announces its monetary policy guidelines. The targets remains at 0.7565 and 0.7500.
The Marlin Oscillator slightly went above the neutral line in the four-hour chart, but it is going to return along it. Otherwise, the situation will remain unchanged, that is, moving downwards.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 12, 2021
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen continued to adhere to its target yesterday to exit the declining price channel, that is, above the 109.17 mark, move towards the target level of 110.34, and possibly further rise. If we analyze the pair's growth amid the confusing ECB meeting on Thursday, there is a high probability that the price will reach the specified target level. The Marlin Oscillator signal line is also directed upwards.
The price in the H4 chart is supported by the balance indicator line. On the other hand, the Marlin is approaching the border within the growth area. Thus, the price is expected at the nested line of the upward price channel in the area of 110.34.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on March 15, 2021
GBP/USD Last Thursday and Friday, the pound went above the target level of 1.3950 for a short time and is now preparing to attack the support of the MACD line (1.3800). Success will lead the pound to advance to deeper targets: 1.3630 and 1.3460. The same maneuver with a short-term exit above the neutral level was made by the Marlin oscillator and now it is in the downward trend zone.
The price is between the MACD line and the 1.3950 target level on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is formally in the growth zone, but it still moves horizontally along the border. A more probable development of the situation will be the price drift under the opening of the week (and under the MACD line on H4) and advance to the first target of 1.3800.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 16, 2021
AUD/USD
On the daily chart, the Australian dollar is trying to gain a foothold under the MACD indicator line. But for a complete consolidation, it is necessary for today to close with a black candle. The Marlin Oscillator has entered negative territory.
It looks like the Australian dollar, along with the European currencies, is waiting for tomorrow's Fed meeting. But it may still slowly decline because oil, gold, metals, and a number of agricultural commodities are getting cheaper yesterday and this morning.
On the four-hour chart, the price is still above the MACD line. A decline in the price below 0.7724 will be a signal to open short positions. Marlin is already in the negative zone.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 17, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar consolidated under the blue MACD indicator trend line on the daily chart. This signals a change in the trend that reversed from the 0.8010 mark on February 25. At the same time, the Marlin Oscillator has entered the downward zone, thereby putting relevance to the target levels set at 0.7615, 0.7565 and 0.7500 on the specified chart.
The price in the H4 chart is still above the MACD line, but the Marlin oscillator shows that it is determined to break through this support immediately. During the past day, an attempt was made to break through the MACD line, but ended unsuccessfully. Today, there will be a stronger pressure from the outcome of the FOMC meeting. If the price moves below the MACD line (0.7717), the path will be opened towards the first target level of 0.7615.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 18, 2021
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen did not react strongly to the sharp weakening of the dollar yesterday after the announcement of the Fed's optimistic economic forecasts. The yen preferred to extend the consolidation and look around. This morning, the dollar stopped falling, and stock indexes continued to rise. This situation once again favors the USD/JPY pair in continuing to grow towards the target of 110.35. A weak divergence with the Marlin oscillator, as we noted yesterday, takes on the character of a discharge of the indicator before further growth.
On the four-hour chart, the price is still below the MACD indicator line, the Marlin is formally in the growth zone, but continues to move sideways in its own range. The signal to buy will be the exit price above yesterday's top, 109.34.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 22, 2021
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair was in a neutral state last Friday, closing the day almost at the opening level, this morning the market opened with a falling gap of 22 points, closed in the next half hour of trading. Conditions have been created in order for the price to move up to the embedded line of the rising price channel of the higher timeframe (110.37), but the Marlin oscillator is descending along a steep trajectory, which is more likely to prolong the price consolidation of the last five sessions. A reversal of the indicator and a breakout of the price to the upside is likely tomorrow on Tuesday.
The price, with the gap closing, returned to last week's consolidation range highlighted by the gray rectangle on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator did not leave its own range. With the dollar's strength, and the price going over the MACD line in the area of 109.35, it is likely that the price will move to the upside.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 23, 2021
EUR/USD
In yesterday's correction by closing the gap from the opening of trades, the euro overdid it a little, forming a white candlestick of 50 points, while other currencies were limited only to closing the gap. The price decided to work out the resistance set by the February 5 low and the correction was 62% from the March 18 high. The Marlin oscillator is developing in the negative area on the daily chart. Now we are waiting for the euro to fall to the first target level of 1.1800 - to the low on November 23, 2020.
The balance indicator line kept the price growing on the four-hour chart. Marlin slightly went into the growth zone, but with general reversal moods, it can quickly return back to the negative half. The MACD indicator line looks loose, playing the role of a technical shaft, on which the price is wound. Nevertheless, being able to settle below it, under 1.1880, may become a working signal of the consolidated downward trend in the short term.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 24, 2021
AUD/USD
This morning, the Australian dollar reached its first target set at 0.7615, after losing 114 points yesterday. The main impulse was the New Zealand dollar, which declined by 150 points due to the introduction of budgetary measures to curb the growth of real estate prices.
On the daily chart, Marlin Oscillator's signal line began to slightly turn. This suggests that the correction can be either from the reached level of 0.7615 or from the lower target level of 0.7565 (low of February 2). Regardless, the downward trend has already started, so we will wait for the price at the levels of 0.7500 and 0.7375.
The price in the H4 chart is making an attempt to break through the support level of 0.7615, with the Marlin oscillator moving down. A consolidation below which will lead the quote to the 0.7565 mark. After that, we can expect a fair correction to eliminate the oscillator from the oversold zone.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 25, 2021
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair managed once again to overcome the circumstances and refrained from a deeper correction, the goals of which were 108.16 and 107.35/50. The price turned around from the upper limit of support on March 10 to 11 and it resumed growth towards the target of 110.37 in the Asian session today, with the Marlin oscillator turned up. The target is determined by the nested line of the growing price channel of the monthly time frame.
Based on the four-hour scale chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator now seeks to exit its own consolidation going up. The price overcame the resistance level of the balance indicator line, which shifted the priority to the pair's purchases. The nearest growth target, intermediate before 110.37 will be at 109.34 – the Kruzenshtern line unfolding upwards.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2021
EUR/USD
In previous reviews, we counted on a correction based on erroneous information about Catholic Easter. The holiday was designated on March 26-29 in a number of economic calendars, while in reality it falls on April 2-5. The error in the calendars was corrected, and our inaccurate forecast, unfortunately, remained, for which we apologize.
Meanwhile, the euro successfully passed the 1.1800 target level (now this level has been updated to 1.1810) and has moved to the 1.1745 target level.
Now, either from the 1.1745 level, or from the current one, we expect a correction based on a more pronounced double convergence of price with the Marlin oscillator. The correction may still not be deep, limited from the top by the 1.1810 level, but it can continue in this range on Monday due to the lack of planned news.
A reversal of the Marlin oscillator indicates a reversal from the current levels on the H4 chart. The 1.1810 level, as you can see, corresponds to a slight consolidation on March 24th.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/ USD currency pair 03/26/21
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market is moving up from the level of 1.1768 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), and will try to reach the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.1849 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.1890-at the resistance line (the red bold line).
Figure 1 (daily chart).
Comprehensive Analysis:
- Indicator Analysis – up
- Fibonacci Levels – up
- Volumes – up
- Candle Analysis – up
- Trend Analysis – up
- Bollinger Bands – up
- Weekly Chart – up
General Conclusion:
Today, the price is moving up from the level of 1.1768 (closing yesterday's daily candle) and will try to reach the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.1849 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.1890 at the resistance line (the red bold line).
Alternative scenario: the price will move down from the level of 1.1768 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) and will try to reach the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.1711 (the red dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to continue working downwards with the target of 1.1691 at the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (the black dotted line).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro slipped by 29 points yesterday, blocking Friday's gains, a sign of the price's sentiment to continue moving down against the pressure of the double convergence with the Marlin oscillator.
But the question of yesterday's event has not yet been resolved - will the price stop in the struggle against convergence at the 1.1745 level, or will it continue to decline to the 1.1688-1.1700 range? There is a third option - the collapse of convergence and the price falling even deeper (after all, double convergence has not yet been fully formed), and there are fundamental prerequisites for this. Yesterday, investment ideas that have become traditional in the last month appeared in the media on the difference in the speed of recovery of the US and European economies.
The Marlin oscillator approached the border of the growth area on the four-hour chart and is most likely to turn down from it. The oscillator's exit into the zone of positive values in this short-term situation does not carry a high level of information, it may also be a reaction to the way that the price will continue to consolidate sideways or on either side, not above the MACD line, which coincides with the target level of 1.1810.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 31, 2021
AUD/USD Yesterday, the Australian dollar broke through the signal level of 0.7641 with its upper shadow and closed the day with a decline of 37 points. The Marlin oscillator has been repeating its price movements for the last five days, unfortunately losing its leading main function. Nevertheless, it still has a large margin to decline before entering the oversold zone. We have a downward trend on the daily chart and the targets are set at 0.7565 and 0.7500.
The price consolidated under the indicator's red balance line and the MACD line in the H4 chart. The Marlin Oscillator is at its zero neutral line and is ready to fall again. In this case, the first target level of 0.7565 is expected to be broken through, with 60% probability.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the price of the lower shadow of the daily candle almost reached the upper border of the target range of 1.1688-1.1700. The upper limit can still be taken, the October 19, 2021 low at 1.1703, then the range will correspond to the extremes of October 15-19, and in this case it will be reached with an accuracy of point (1.1704).
Today's US report on the ISM manufacturing PMI for March is expected to grow from 60.8 to 61.3, weekly applications for unemployment benefits are expected to decline from 684,000 to 680,000, and tomorrow the unemployment data will be released, in which new jobs in the non-agricultural sector are expected to reach 647,000(!) against 379,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 6.2% to 6.0%.
All these circumstances make us think that the development of the Marlin oscillator in its own triangle will follow the option with the lower output (dashed line on the chart), and the current double convergence will be abolished. The euro will aim for 1.1560, the area of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.
The convergence flared up and went out on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after entering the growth area, found itself in negative territory again. The price may stay in the range of 1.1700/4-1.1745 for some time, but tonight or tomorrow it will go down, especially since the market will be thin due to the Catholic Easter holidays.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 2, 2021
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3834 and made a local high at the level of 1.3850. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.3867 (61% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, if bulls fail to do so, the next target for bears is located at 1.3669 (recent swing low) and then at 1.3557 (weekly low from February 2021). The next technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3850. Please notice the momentum is neutral and can turn again into negative territory any time now.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4089
WR2 - 1.3984
WR1 - 1.3884
Weekly Pivot - 1.3780
WS1 - 1.3675
WS2 - 1.3568
WS3 - 1.3466
Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021
EUR/USD
A strong US employment report came out last Friday: 916,000 new jobs were created in March, the revision for February and January added another 156,000, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, while the share of the labor force increased from 61.4% to 61.5%. Another similar release, and ideas for an earlier rate hike may resurface. Perhaps this is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Moreover, we suspect that the labor report was regarded, because the Nonfarm is traditionally a manipulative tool, and the most radical forecasts were waiting for an increase above 2 million. But later on it will be clear how the government has seriously taken the improvement.
However, due to the Easter holidays, the dollar was not redeemed intensively, and today Europe is also resting. The index of business activity in the US services sector according to the ISM for March is expected to grow from 55.3 to 58.5. New data can still push the euro down deeper, to the range of 1.1688-1.1700.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses from the upper boundary of its own wedge. As a result, we are waiting for the oscillator to go deep down. We are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.1560 - the approximate level of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.
The price turns down from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour scale. If the price moves below the nearest target level of 1.1745, the target range is 1.1688-1.1700.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 6, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro gained 51 points in yesterday's US session. In related markets, government bond yields declined, stock indices rose (S&P 500 1.44%), while oil prices fell (-4.0%). So far, it seems that the dollar is more sensitive to increased expectations of a rate hike following the strong employment data on Friday, rather than due to increased risk appetite. The ISM Service PMI for March showed an increase from 55.3 to 63.7 against the forecast of 58.3, but factory orders slipped by -0.8% against expectations of -0.5%. In the current situation, there is no risk of the euro reversal upward, visually it is still the same correction.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the triangle in the opposite direction to our expectations. Now the triangle is abolished and the double convergence remains, which carries the risk that the correction would reach the target level of 1.1950, the MACD indicator line is aiming for this level. But for this, Marlin must settle in the zone of positive values, the price must settle above the 1.1836 level - this is the March 9 low. The price rarely overcomes double convergences and divergences, creating a false signal, but now, with strong fundamental pressure on the euro, it can do so, so the best tactic today, and possibly tomorrow, will be to watch the market from the outside.
Nothing to add to what has been said on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines and, being at strong price levels, looks for market reasons for a reversal or continued growth.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2021
GBP/USD
The British pound did not follow the euro, the general weakening of the dollar, but turned downward from the area where the MACD indicator line coincided with the 38.2% correction level. The Marlin oscillator also turned down from the zero line. This simultaneous reversal of the price and the oscillator creates a strong downward signal. The target of this decline is the 1.3625 level.
The price has settled below the signal-target level of 1.3845 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone, the price is visually preparing to overcome the support of the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3801.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021
XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.
Black lines - Fibonacci support levels
Blue line - short-term support trend line
XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 12, 2021
EUR/USD
The eurozone reports that were released last Friday came out weak: Germany's trade balance reached 19.1 billion euros in February against expectations of 23.4 billion and 21.3 billion in January, German industrial production fell by 1.6% against expectations of growth by 1.6%, industrial production in France fell by 4.7% (forecast + 0.5%). The euro fell by only 12 points due to the reports. Perhaps the euro has become attached to the yields on government bonds, which slightly grew on Friday. But both bonds and the dollar are still ahead...
The Marlin oscillator is turning around its own resistance level at 0.0092. Let's consider the current moment on the four-hour chart:
The divergence works out its influence to the full extent- the signal line of the oscillator is embedded into the zone of negative values. After surpassing the April 8 low at 1.1861, the first target level (1.1810) opens. The second target (1.1745) opens behind it.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 13, 2021
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair bounce has been capped at 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3763. The market reversed as the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market conditions are still quite oversold, so if the level of 1.3763 is violated, then the bulls might extend the bounce towards 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at 1.3792. Please notice, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the bears are still in control of the market and all the bounces are so far the counter-trend corrective in nature.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4080
WR2 - 1.4000
WR1 - 1.3827
Weekly Pivot - 1.3750
WS1 - 1.3579
WS2 - 1.3494
WS3 - 1.3340
Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2021
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro rose against macroeconomic data. The index of sentiment in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW for the current month decreased from 74.0 to 66.3 while expecting growth to 77.2, the consumer price index in the US increased by 0.6% in March against the expectation of 0.5%. Obviously, the reason lies in the decline in government bond yields. So 5-year US securities yield fell from 0.89% to 0.84%. The yield is falling for the second week in a row, and is now in the consolidation range of March 12-26, and this introduces an intrigue: will there be an upward reversal from it or a breakthrough to the downside?
The technical situation for the euro has become more uncertain than in the last two days. The price went above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, shifting the market's interest in buying, possibly with the intention to overcome the resistance of the MACD line at the levels of the highs on March 18 and 11 - 1.1990. Getting the pair to settle above the level may push it to rise to 1.2025, then to 1.2105 - to the correction levels of 50.0% and 61.8% of the movement from the January high to the March low. The Marlin oscillator has gone above its own resistance at 0.0092 and is now strengthening in growth. It is still far from the overbought zone.
The price moved up from the consolidation range on a four-hour timescale. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. The price clearly intends to test the first resistance at 1.1990 for strength. A reversal is possible only when the price has finally settled below the MACD line, approximately below the 1.1895 level.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro's growth from yesterday, since the dollar weakened, correlated with the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the economic club in Washington, where he spoke about the practice of reducing purchases of government bonds before raising rates. But the euro showed most of yesterday's growth even before Powell's speech, and his thesis itself did not make it clear exactly when the Fed would start to reduce its balance sheet.
Yields on government bonds slightly grew: from 0.84% to 0.86% for 5-year bonds, from 1.62% to 1.63% for 10-year bonds. Perhaps there was a correction in bond yields, which caused the euro to strengthen in recent days. There is still no strict correlation between the dynamics of the euro and yields, the growth was caused, rather, by the loss of investment interest in the dollar, because the euro's growth in April took place at the lowest volumes over the past 12 months. Investment growth against the dollar will increase in the new cycle of attracting capital under the "Biden plan" and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. The placement of bonds under the Biden plan will begin next week (announcements of the auctions have not yet been published).
On the daily chart, the price reached a strong resistance - the coincidence of the 1.1990 level and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has outlined a reversal, albeit not from the overbought zone, but with a fairly high value. A correction from current prices can be expected.
A price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. If the euro continues to grow in the medium term, then we expect a correction to the MACD line in the 1.1990 area. If the euro turns into a new medium-term decline, then the price should settle below this MACD line.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
-
EUR/USD
The dollar stopped weakening yesterday. US retail sales in March showed an increase of 9.8% against the forecast of 5.0-5.8%. In addition, the weekly report of the Ministry of Labor on claims for unemployment benefits showed a decline from 769,000 to 576,000 (the forecast was 703,000) and industrial production grew by 1.4% in March with an increase in capacity utilization from 73.8% to 74.4%. The desire (or forecast) of a number of investment companies to see an increase in risk appetite is still not materialized. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.11%, but gold rose in price by 1.61%, the yield on 5-year government bonds fell from 0.86% to 0.81%. In the next week, the United States is placing debt obligations worth $227 billion, which will still increase the demand for the dollar.
On the daily chart, the price confirmed the reversal from the strong level (1.1990) at the point of its intersection with the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is turning down more clearly. At the very least, we are now waiting for a deep correction from the growth from March 31, possibly to the target level of 1.1810 (61.8% of this entire growing movement). At the most, we are waiting to recover the downward movement with targets below 1.1700.
The divergence has been confirmed on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone. If the price moves under the MACD line, below 1.1914, the price will confirm its intention to decline in the medium term.
