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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 15, 2020
EUR/USD
The situation has not changed for the euro over the past day. Trading was weak on Wednesday, the price is also settling below the 1.1754 level. The Marlin oscillator moves along the border that separates the growth zone from the decline zone on the daily chart. Outwardly, the situation is neutral, but the price is developing below the red balance indicator line, which means consolidating in a dynamic downward trend. The 1.1650 target is dominant, the probability of reaching it is 65-70%.
The four-hour chart shows that yesterday's attempt to go beyond the area above the MACD line turned out to be weak, the price has already settled below it and is ready to continue its decline. The Marlin oscillator is growing in the downward trend zone, but this growth in structure is the indicator unloading before declining even deeper.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 16, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro opened and ended Thursday at 1.1754, the area which is below the key level of the lower boundary of the monthly range of the second half of August and the first half of September. This means that the initial condition for the medium-term downward trend has been met. We are waiting for the price to fall to 1.1315. But the euro's first target is the 1.1650 level, followed by the second target at 1.1550 - the November 2017 low. The Marlin oscillator has strengthened in the territory of the downward trend zone.
According to the indicators, the trend is downward on the four-hour chart, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply turned upwards, which may indicate a deepening correction. The limit for the corrective growth is the 1.1754 level . The price will give a new downward momentum if the price moves below yesterday's low of 1.1688.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 19, 2020
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has been seen moving lower at the beginning of the trading week. The last lower low was made at the level of 1.1688, just below the technical support seen at the level of 1.1696 and this is the next target for the bears. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1746. Despite the oversold conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative, which support the short-term bearish outlook.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1924
WR2 - 1.1873
WR1 - 1.1783
Weekly Pivot - 1.1733
WS1 - 1.1641
WS2 - 1.1593
WS3 - 1.1509
Trading Recommendations:
Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top seen at the level of 1.2004. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 20, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro has grown by 50 points on Monday. News agencies attribute the growth to hopes for a stimulus package in the United States before the presidential election and the imminent appearance of a coronavirus vaccine. As a rule, there are two cases why the media releases information: to cover up speculative operations, and when no one knows the reason. At the moment, we do not see any sense in speculative operations, respectively, this is how large players operate. Appetite for risk in the market has not increased, as US stock indexes lost around one and a half percent yesterday.
Nevertheless, the momentum is set, the price could slightly rise a little more before it decisively falls. The growth target could be the October 6 high at 1.1808. The price crossed the balance indicator line on the daily chart, while Marlin entered the growth zone. A delay above the levels will strengthen the bulls' position and the pair could grow to 1.1915 in the near future - to the MACD line on the daily timeframe. If the pair closes below 1.1754, which will also correspond to the close below the balance line, then a deeper movement down to the target levels 1.1650 and 1.1550 will begin tomorrow.
The price settled above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the positive zone, indicating a short-term downward reversal. Here the situation repeats the daily scenarios - the price settling below 1.1754, respectively, and below the MACD line, will become a platform for reaching 1.1650. Settling in the area above 1.1808 will not yet be a condition for rising to 1.1915 just yet, as there are other resistances along this speculative and volatile path. For example, 1.1831 is the peak on October 9.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 21, 2020
Crypto Industry News:
Speculation about Ethereum 2.0 continues, and there are newer and newer leaks from insiders. One recent speculation is where the developer of Ethereum 2.0 predicts that a smart protocol contract allowing their Ethers to be deposited on 2.0 networks will be released in a matter of days. The staking process itself would start later this year.
ConsenSys developer Ben Edgington posted an entry that predicts the genesis of the ETH 2.0 beacon chain will take place in the next six to eight weeks.
In a post announcing the launch of the zero version for client 1.0, Edgington revealed that the protocol's smart contract feature should be announced this week. A smart escrow contract that allows ETH sending between Network 1.0 and Network 2.0 and is one of the few remaining updates needed to facilitate Ethereum 2.0 rollout in Phase 0. To complete Phase 0 launch, 500,000 Ethers will need to be staked once the beacon chain has started. After that, the network will prepare for the official launch for several weeks.
Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has extended the retracement towards the level of 61% located at $381.85, then the market pulled back towards the intraday support at $375.52 and bounced to the $381.85 again. The target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400 and the bulls are consolidating the recent gains. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95. On the other hand, the target for bears is seen at the level of $360.60 and $355.60 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $369.37.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $424.52
WR2 - $408.88
WR1 - $391.97
Weekly Pivot - $376.47
WS1 - $357.63
WS2 - $341.22
WS3 - $328.22
Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 22, 2020
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the effect of good expectations worked on the markets - according to Michel Barnier, investors sensed the possibility of an EU-UK deal and began to buy both the euro and the pound. As a result, the euro grew by 39 points, the pound by 198 points. The euro did not reach the target level of 1.1915 by around 35 points, which raises a difficult question, will it work out at all or not? The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already begun to reverse.
The Marlin is also turning around on the 4-hour timeline, but there are no actual reversal signals yet. It is very likely that the price will still reach the designated target, slightly going beyond it in order to reach the MACD line on the daily scale, and this will form a divergence reversal with Marlin.
So, we are waiting for the price to grow to the previously indicated level in the area of the MACD line on the daily chart at 1.191520.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 23, 2020
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair keeps going lower as the corrective cycle from the local high at 1.3180 continues. The price has broken below the 38% Fibonacci retracement seen at 1.3074 and is heading towards the level of 50% located at 1.3041. The market is coming off the overbought levels, so the price might get below 1.3000 zome again. The key technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2982 - 1.3017. Moreover, it is worth to keep an eye on the upper channel line again for any indication of broken support.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3222
WR2 - 1.3147
WR1 - 1.3005
Weekly Pivot - 1.2924
WS1 - 1.2790
WS2 - 1.2718
WS3 - 1.2567
Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 26, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro fully recovered on Friday after falling on Thursday, now the price intends to reach the target level of 1.1917 - the highs of September 10 and August 6. Perhaps growth will be slightly higher in order to reach the MACD line. The highest peak is seen at the upper border of the price channel at 1.1960. The Marlin oscillator is growing, the bullish trend of the corrective plan continues.
The price rises after a false departure under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is its own sign of continuing the movement after a false price maneuver. The same maneuver was made by the Marlin oscillator, now the price is in a growing position for all indicators on this timeframe. We are waiting for the price to rise to the designated target of 1.1917.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 27, 2020
AUD/USD
The aussie lost 14 points yesterday, staying within Friday's boundaries and target support at 0.7120. As we suspected yesterday, the aussie was thwarted by commodity markets; oil -1.50%, iron ore -0.6%, copper -1.42%. But the price goes up.
The Marlin oscillator is trying to enter the growth zone for the second day, the balance indicator line sets the price to maneuver to 0.7190.
Growth is constrained by the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Getting the price to settle above it will bring the aussie to the target level of 0.7190. Also, the price can continue rising when it leaves the area above yesterday's high.
This plan can be crossed out when the price falls below Friday's low of 0.7102, then the target will be 0.7058.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 28, 2020
EUR/USD
The dollar has been strengthening since the beginning of the week. Investors are starting to invest in Biden's victory in the US presidential election, as well as in obtaining a democratic majority in both houses of Congress. To strengthen the euro's downward movement, the price needs to settle below the target level of 1.1754. When this task is completed, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will move into the negative zone, which will strengthen the trend. The first target after that will be the 1.1650 level. To consolidate the trend, the price also needs to gain a foothold below the red balance indicator line.
The four-hour chart shows that the situation is completely decreasing, the price has settled below the balance and MACD lines, while Marlin is declining in the negative zone. We look forward to a decline in prices and reinforcement of the fall on the daily chart.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 29, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro has fueled the expected fall. The single currency lost 40 points yesterday, the reason for this was the introduction of a strict quarantine in France and a fall in oil by 4%. The price has overcome the target level of 1.1754 and is currently gathering forces under it to fall further to the next target of 1.1650. This movement is delayed by the red balance indicator line on the daily chart. The oscillatory line touched the border of the decline area yesterday, now the price has to build up strength to break through the technical supports.
There are no signs of a possible deep correction on the four-hour chart, the accumulation of forces is likely to have a consolidation character. We are waiting for the price to move to 1.1650 once it is completed.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EUR/USD Forecast for October 30, 2020
EUR/USD
On Thursday, the Euro fell by 72 points, having worked out the first target of 1.1650 as the minimum of the day. This goal was worked out qualitatively. This was worked out on good market volumes, with technical confirmation of the Marlin oscillator by moving to the zone of negative values. This is a zone of a downward trend to fix the price under the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart. The reason for this movement was the ECB meeting, at which it was decided to change the current monetary policy towards easing in December. The next step of the price is waiting for its transition to the level of 1.1650 and working out the subsequent goal of 1.1550, this is the minimum of November 2017.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator turns up, the Marlin is slightly discharged, not wanting to go deeper into the oversold zone. We are then waiting for a new wave of decline to the designated goal. It is possible that the price will go below 1.1650 only on Monday.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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AUD / USD Forecast for November 3, 2020
AUD / USD
In the last two days, the Australian Dollar the range of fluctuations increased against the background of mixed dynamics in the commodity markets and the upcoming elections in the US but in general the price does not move above the level of 0.7058. It is probably choosing it as a platform for working out the nested line of the price channel in the area of 0.6937. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line has returned to the border with the growth territory. From here, a downward turn is possible and the price may fall further. The first goal is 0.6970 and overcoming it will create a condition for a breakthrough to 0.6937. Fixing the price below this level opens up the prospect of further decline.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro gained 75 points on Tuesday due to below average trading volumes. Undoubtedly, this was a speculative growth in anticipation of the start of the national vote in the United States. The price has reached the target level of 1.1754 today. Getting the price to settle above 1.1754 may lead to rising towards 1.1880, but we consider this scenario as an alternative, since Biden is ahead of Trump at the moment with a score of 89 voters against 72. To win, you need to get 270 conditional voters, that is, a certain number of them depending on the victory in a specific state. We believe that Joe Biden's victory will lead to a stronger dollar. Also, the Senate is leaving the Republicans' control - 35% versus 49% of the Democrats.
The daily chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reverses from the border of the growth area. We are waiting for the price to go under 1.1590, then it will continue to fall to 1.1495.
The four-hour chart shows that the price did not break any of the indicator lines above, it only punctured the MACD line. For high volatility, this is a typical case for large players to control the situation. Getting the price to settle below 1.1590 will be an important sign of the euro's succeeding decline.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 5, 2020
EUR/USD
Yesterday the market spent a day in disputes and expectations on the US election results. Joe Biden, having seized the leadership from the very beginning, holding it until this morning, he now has 253 votes against Trump's 214, 71.471 million votes were cast for Biden against Trump's 67.968 million. To win for the presidency, a candidate needs to recruit 270 voters. The alignment in the Senate has slightly changed - the Democrats lost the leadership, they now have 47 seats against 48 for the Republicans (50 are needed to control the upper house), the House of Representatives remains with the Democrats: 197 seats against 186. Votes can be counted for a few more days, since many voters voted by mail.
Investors were worried - the trading volume for the euro was the highest in the last five months, the trading range was 168 points. The media wrote that Biden's victory will be followed by a weakening of the dollar, but we repeat: the Democratic establishment traditionally followed the policy of a strong dollar after some periods of exclusion, especially when it was necessary to pull the economy out of the crisis. In the current situation, the demand for dollars will be supported by the demand for US public debt (in connection with the new aid package) and the change of Trump's state paradigm "divide and conquer" to the "unite and conquer" paradigm, which will be expressed in the unfreezing of projects of transoceanic partnerships and an early agreement with Britain on its exit from the EU. In the long term, we expect the euro to be below parity.
The daily chart shows that the euro returned to the area of the balance indicator line, while the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally right along the border of the downward area. Perhaps the euro will reach the lower target level of 1.1620 by today or tomorrow.
The price needs to overcome yesterday's high (1.1770) in order to move up, and it also needs to take the nearest target at 1.1830, which is the peak on October 9.
The price cannot go above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator turns to the downside without waiting for it. There are no clear signals for a reversal yet, but there are no signals for succeeding growth either. So we should wait until the market reacts to the results of the presidential elections.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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AUD/USD Forecast for November 6, 2020
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed a rare side of high dynamics as its growth was just over a hundred points ahead of the Euro. The growth stopped at the daily Kruzenshtern line and this morning the price started to reverse. Leaving the price with a consolidation under 0.7222 will mean a reversal of this dynamics in the opposite direction, the first goal will be 0.7120, then 0.7058. Growth is possible with a 35% probability. To do this, the price needs to overcome yesterday's high and the target will be the upper limit of the price channel at 0.7335.
Based on the four-hour scale chart, the reversal is not yet pronounced, the indicators only show its possible beginning, albeit with a high probability. To confirm it, you need to wait for the price to fall below the nearest level of 0.7222.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 9, 2020
EUR/USD
US data on employment came out good: 638,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector against the forecast of 600,000, the share of the economically active population increased from 61.4% to 61.7%, the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 % to 6.9%, dropping to the level of September 2014. Unemployment fell by 53% in six months, which, of course, is a good pace. But the dollar dropped 0.27% on Friday, while the euro rose by 50 points. The business media have portrayed this growth, as well as all of the euro's growth since election day, with an increase in risk appetite and anticipation of a massive stimulus package. But we don't think so. This is far from the same interest in risk that was seen in 2013 or 2017, for example, with big businesses setting the euro exchange rate at 1.32 and 1.15 in each period. We do not know what track the business is interested in, but it is unlikely to be 1.18. We even doubt that corporations need a second aid package. To understand the current situation, you need to dig deeper.
Each so-called aid package is spent by corporations in two main areas: for speculation in stock markets and for takeover of large companies in other countries. US President Donald Trump, according to the Democrats, made the main mistake in his policy - by freezing projects of transoceanic partnerships, he went deep, in particular, in sanctions against individual countries. With the arrival of Biden, one can expect a resumption of American-style globalization (Pacific partnerships), a US-UK trade deal regardless of the outcome of Brexit, and continued expansion of British-American companies to third countries. All these tasks require a strong dollar, not an ephemeral interest in risk, which is used as a cover for banal speculation for the time being.
The euro has currently overcome the target level of 1.1880, it is possible to reach the MACD line at 1.1915 (daily). Overcoming the MACD line will allow the price to reach the resistance of the upper line of the price channel at around 1.1950. Getting the price to settle below 1.1880 could bring prices back below 1.1830. The bears could aim for 1.1770. No clear direction for today, volatility could also be low.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 10, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro did not beat around the bush and decided to strengthen the correction, as it looked into the collapse of gold (-4.51%) and silver (-6.90%)n. The euro has lost 62 points since Friday's close.
The price touched the upper shadow of the MACD line and decisively reversed from it on the daily chart. Now the price needs to fall below the balance indicator line, since it will be easier for the price to drop in this case. The Marlin oscillator is moving down, but is also staying in the growth trend zone, the market has not cooled down after last week's growth, a second attempt to attack the MACD line in the 1.1915 area and further, towards the price channel line in the 1.1948 area.
The price has settled below the nearest level of 1.1830 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is attacking the border of the bears' territory. Falling below yesterday's low may extend the movement to the MACD line towards the target level of 1.1750. And being able to settle below it will become a sign of the price's intention to go down further, where the first target will be the level of 1.1620. The likelihood of rising and falling further at the moment is roughly 55% versus 45%. We are waiting for the situation to unfold.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro traded with a range of 30 points on Tuesday, closing the day near its opening. Markets took a short break after Monday's increased activity. The euro was unable to grow following oil (4.95%) and gold (0.75%), since the index of economic sentiment in the euro area fell from 52.3 to 32.8 in November and also on the understanding that the recent report of Pfizer about 90% effectiveness of their vaccine meant that 94 out of 43,538 people with covid were vaccinated, it is assumed that all vaccinated test participants were then infected with the virus to obtain statistical material. Of course, the participants in the experiment were not intentionally infected, and the message was a common PR move.
But does this mean that the euro will fall? This cannot be answered in the current situation, since the price is in a neutral position from a technical point of view - the price is settling below the target level of 1.1830 with the horizontally moving Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. There is interest in buying when the price is above the balance line, but the medium and long-term trend is adjusted downward when it is below the MACD line. Since no mood is clearly expressed, and if we assume that the fervor of the bulls has not yet dried up, then the price may try to attack the MACD line for the second time. Getting the price to settle below the 1.1750 level, will most likely cause a desire to reach the September low (1.1620).
The price is settling above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the declining zone. Taken together, this may be a sign of consolidation with the intention to break down below the MACD line, near the target level 1.1750.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 12, 2020
USD/JPY
On the daily chart for the third day, the Japanese yen is held above the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is developing in a small horizontal range, increasing the probability of price growth to the nearest target of 106.03 along the price channel line.
But this plan has an alternative, which manifests itself when considering the situation on a four-hour scale. Yesterday, the price went up from the triangle, then returned to its top, converting the triangle into a flag.
Meanwhile, a divergence was formed based on Marlin. Since the price is close to going under the forming lines of the flag and triangle, working out the target level of 104.75 is possible. By this time, the Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe may be in the zone of negative values. Fixing the price at 104.75 will open the target of 104.05 at the minimum on September 21. If the price is fixed at 104.75, the MACD line on H4 can be easily overcome by increasing dynamics. The probability of both upward and downward development is the same, and the uncertainty can be resolved today.
News are provided by InstaForex
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]Forecast for USD/JPY on November 13, 2020
USD / JPY
The Japanese yen, under yesterday's pressure from the stock market, strengthened (decreased on the chart) by 29 pips, breaking the support of the MACD line on the daily chart. Then, today during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair lost the same amount, and in order for the quotes to continue the decline, the bears have to overcome the support of the price channel at 104.75. Around the same time, the Marlin Oscillator will move into negative territory, which will strengthen the declining market sentiment. The target of the movement will be the level of 104.05, which is near the lows reached on October 29 and September 21.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...df175b2956.jpg
The four-hour chart shows that the MACD line (104.52) is located slightly below the level of 104.75. Therefore, to ensure that the pair does not fall under the price channel, the quotes have to fall below the MACD line. Converging the price with the Marlin Oscillator will be effective for this, especially since at the moment, the signal line has already entered the zone of negative values. The prevailing scenario is bearish, and a consolidation below 104.05 will certainly trigger a downward move towards 103.18.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...df182afbd8.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 16, 2020
Crypto Industry Outlook:
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said he needed to do more to block "smart" US traders from illegally accessing its global stock exchange. In an interview with the financial media, CZ said its stock exchange needs to be "smarter about the way we block" US traders from accessing the platform:
"Basically, we are constantly trying to improve our security. Sometimes there are a few guys who want to bypass our locks and still use the platform. We have to come up with a smarter way to strengthen protection, and when we do, we lock them."
Binance, which is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, stopped serving US traders in September 2019 due to regulatory risk. The stock market later launched Binance.US in partnership with BAM Trading Services, which was approved by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to serve US clients. Binance.US is a separate entity that licenses technology from Binance and receives brand support from the Malta Stock Exchange.
Binance.US transaction volumes are said to be only a small fraction of the daily turnover on the main Binance exchange. However, reported volumes are often inflated and do not reflect actual trading activity. It is said that the big stock exchanges continue to publish false figures.
Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving lower towards the level of $440 after the corrective cycle had started. The local low was made at the level of $438.18, but the market keeps moving inside of the descending channel. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the swing high located at the level of $476.29. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $459.47. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $507.71
WR2 - $490.25
WR1 - $463.71
Weekly Pivot - $448.80
WS1 - $421.33
WS2 - $405.66
WS3 - $377.90
Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2020
EUR/USD
Markets continue to actively play out the popular topic of coronavirus vaccines. Yesterday, American company Moderna announced successful tests of the second phase. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.16%, the euro by 17 points. Obviously, until new investment topics are available, investors continue to be optimistic about the development of new vaccines and the vaccination process itself. But this topic will soon become boring, because yesterday's growth was not as pronounced as it was after the news from Pfizer.
The daily chart shows that nothing is holding back the price from moving to the nearest targets of 1.1910 along the MACD line and 1.1940 along the line of the descending price channel. The Marlin oscillator is growing.
The four-hour chart shows that the price settled above the balance indicator line, which strengthened the mood for buy positions on the euro, the Marlin oscillator also settled in the positive trend zone. Yesterday's trading volume exceeded Friday's. We are waiting for the EUR/USD to rise towards the designated targets.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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AUD/USD Forecast for November 18, 2020
AUD / USD The Australian Dollar lost 20 points yesterday. Yesterday's peak allowed us to form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator. To fix it and actually turn the market down, the price needs to be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line-- below 0.7264-- and then fall below the nearest target level of 0.7222 at least on November 12-13. The nearest target is 0.7120.
On the four-hour chart, the price is already attacking the Kruzenshtern line at 0.7275. Note that the Krusenstern lines on both time charts almost coincide in price, which makes the 0.7264/75 range particularly important.
Fixing under the specified range can trigger a strong drop in the price. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on H4 has already entered the zone of negative values. The probability of a downward scenario is 80%.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2020
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro showed increased dynamics on average trading volumes, the range was 68 points. The support was provided by the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator did not manage to gain a foothold in the bears' territory and went back to the growth area. We have a rising trend on the four-hour chart. The nearest target 1.1903 is the MACD line on the daily chart.
The daily chart shows that the situation also tends to rise, but the resistance of the MACD line looks strong, the price has pulled back from it twice in the last three days.
If the euro gathers strength, it is possible to overcome the 1.1903 level and even reach the border of the price channel at 1.1938, but further growth is possible only with strong fundamental factors. In this case, the target is the 1.2010/40 range.
In general, the euro confirmed that it is not going to leave the wide free roaming zone of 1.1750-1.1930. We are waiting for the development of events.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 23, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro settled below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart for the last two days. A pronounced consolidation provides more prerequisites for overcoming the resistance of the MACD line (1.1902), which will help the euro reach the upper border of the downward price channel on a weekly scale (1.1936) and even to its breakout with the subsequent target at 1.2010. And from a fundamental point of view, this scenario is reinforced by the next postponement of the Brexit deadline to December 10, which is when the Brexit deal is expected to be adopted at the EU summit. The agreement itself may be ready by November 30th.
The Marlin oscillator does not provide hints on the daily scale, it moves horizontally.
The four-hour chart shows that Marlin is turning upward from the border of the bears' territory, the price is developing above the balance and MACD lines, which ultimately increases the likelihood of rising further to about 60%.
The growing market sentiment may be shaken when the price settles below the MACD line at the four-hour chart, below 1.1840 to be more specific. The 1.1750 target level will become relevant again. We are waiting for the development of events.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 24, 2020
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar lost 15 points under the overall optimistic pressure of the US dollar on Monday. But while the Australian currency is in no hurry to leave the range of the last six trading sessions, it needs to make sure that the market intends to further strengthen the US currency. During this waiting time, even if it does not work out the upper target of 0.7380, AUD/USD can form a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator. The most important economic data for Australia will only be available next week, such as Quarter 3 GDP, trade balance, PMI, and construction. Since the RBA meeting will take place on Tuesday, December 1, the "kangaroo" can feel quite free until the end of the week.
On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated under the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator briefly went into the negative zone, and this morning it is trying to get back into the growth zone. Neutrality is also observed here on the four-hour scale. It still waits for the price to fall below the level of 0.7260, which is under the daily MACD line.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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AUSTRALIA CONSTRUCTION WORK FALLS 2.6% IN Q3
The total value of construction work done in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 2.6 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$51.179 billion.
That missed expectations for a fall of 2.0 percent following the 0.7 percent decline in the previous three months.
On a yearly basis, the value of construction was down 4.2 percent.
Building work was down 2.0 percent on quarter and 7.2 percent on year at A$28.971 billion.
Residential work was down 1.0 percent on quarter and 8.9 percent on year, while non-residential work fell 3.4 percent on quarter and 4.5 percent on year. Engineering work sank 3.3 percent on quarter but gained 0.1 percent on year.
News are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD Forecast for November 26, 2020
AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar was ready yesterday to turn from the target resistance 0.7380, a decline of 50 points, but the European currencies showed the optimism of American investors out of the market before today's holiday. As a result the Aussie closed the day up 5 points. The potential for divergence formation on the daily chart remains. The level of 0.7380 has not been overcome but the probability of this has increased. The target in this case is the 0.7440 level.
On the four-hour chart, the price punctured the Kruzenshtern line twice yesterday but this was in a growing trend, as the price remained above the balance indicator line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has created a wedge-shaped structure, from which an upward exit is expected.
So, with a probability of 80%, the price is likely to go above the level of 0.7380 and further increase to 0.7440.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 27, 2020
EUR/USD
In the absence of American investors in the market, the euro did not dare to overcome the important resistance of the upper line of the price channel on the daily chart on Thursday. Confusion made it possible for a divergence reversal to form with the Marlin oscillator. European stock indexes also showed no desire to rise yesterday, the main ones closed the day with a slight decline. Obviously, the markets will not grow today either, as any negotiations between the UK and the EU on Brexit may end on Monday.
At the moment, the daily price is between the MACD line and the price channel line. The price can't go up, but now it can slightly go down on closing long positions. Direct short deals on the euro may begin next week.
The four-hour chart shows that the price is still receiving support from the MACD line, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator did not rise from its own range (gray rectangle), as we expected yesterday, but now this line can go down from the range. A signal to open short positions is when the price falls below yesterday's low of 1.1885.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold price breaks $1,800
Gold is trading below $1,800 and today it made a new lower low at $1,773. In our latest Gold analysis when price was trading near $1,810-20 resistance area by the bearish channel, we noted the bearish flag pattern and that we expect Gold price to move to new lows towards $1,770-50. The upper side of the target range has been reached today.
Blue lines - bearish channel
Gold price is moving lower in a textbook style as price gets rejected at the upper channel boundary resistance and breaks lower towards $1,770. Trend is clearly bearish and no sign of reversal yet. Gold price will most probably continue lower. A bounce towards $1,800 is not out of the question but it would not be something we would bet on.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 1, 2020
EUR/USD
According to news agencies, stock market participants took profits yesterday, due to which the S&P 500 fell by 0.46%, and the Dow Jones -0.91%. Trading volumes were large, a sign of flight from the stock market before the announcement of the UK's exit from the EU without a deal. The euro lost 35 points on the same expectations, falling from the day's high with 77 points. The price slightly fell short of the target level 1.2010/40. Divergence on the daily chart is gaining strength
Taking the high volumes of yesterday's trading into account, which were the highest for the euro over the past two weeks, investors are unlikely to want to try to take it a second time. Now we are waiting for the price to move under the MACD line (1.1896) and the attack on support at 1.1750. If successful, it will be followed by - reaching the lower embedded line of the price channel in the 1.1620 area.
The four-hour chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has returned to the lower border of its own range. At the same time, the price reached the support of the MACD indicator line. Since the price overcame yesterday's low of 1.1926, it is possible to open short deals while aiming for 1.1750 and 1.1620.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 2, 2020
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar does not share the great optimism of European currencies and went up by only 27 points yesterday, remaining in the range of Monday until this morning. Even on today's GDP data for the 3rd quarter that showed growth of 3.3% against expectations of 2.5%, the "Aussie" did not react and the price is in no hurry to overcome the target level at the resistance of 0.7380.
Yesterday's RBA meeting was cautiously negative as the regulator does not expect the economy to recover until the end of next year. It is very possible that this definition includes a version of a hard Brexit. The double divergence of the price with the oscillator on the daily scale remains. We are waiting for a reversal in the target range of 0.7222 / 52 in the area of the Kruzenshtern line and the price level of the minimum on November 12.
Based on the four-hour chart, the price stopped at the Kruzenshtern line, which strengthened the level of 0.7380. The Marlin oscillator is held in the downward trend zone. Commodities and metals were cheaper yesterday and today keeping the Australian dollar from rising during a period of uncertainty in Europe. We are waiting for a slow decline in the Australian currency to 0.7340 with the overcoming of the level, the fall may accelerate.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 3, 2020
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar managed to show yesterday another maximum of the last 3 months, which was caused by the growth of the Euro. But this "Australian" strengthened only the spring that is preparing to push down – the Marlin divergence has already become triple. The decline target is seen in the range of 0.7222 / 52, formed by the November 12 low and the Kruzenshtern line.
Based on the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above both the indicator lines - the balance line and the Kruzenshtern line, Marlin indicates growth. But here we see a repeat of the situation in recent weeks, when the price was freely wound on this indicator line in a relatively thin speculative market.
Fixing the price below 0.7384 could mean a start to overcome the level of 0.7340, which will already reveal the downward potential to the full. It is worth noting that the Australian dollar did not react to the excellent trade balance of Australia published this morning and the trade balance for October was 7.46 billion dollars against the forecast of 5.83 billion. Exports increased by 5.0%.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 4, 2020
EUR/USD
Brexit negotiations are ongoing. Only one agreement reached - to extend the negotiations over the weekend. As a result of this, the dollar index added 0.37%, the euro 32 points. Today we can expect data on labor in the US for November, unemployment is expected to drop from 6.9% to 6.8%, perhaps these data can stop the euro's growth. If investors do not close their long positions today, then they may suffer losses on Monday.
The euro has gone above the target level of 1.2117, reaching the upper level of 1.2230 is questionable, since the Marlin oscillator is turning down on the daily chart. Getting the price to settle under 1.2117 will mean a quick attack on the support line of the price channel at 1.2040, and going under it - falling further to 1.1922 - toward the MACD line.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has formed a triple top on the four-hour chart, which is a trend reversal pattern. Getting the price to settle below 1.2117 will make it possible for the price to attack the strong support at 1.2040 formed by the trend line of the higher chart, the low on December 2, approaching the level of the MACD line. Overcoming important support opens the way to 1.1922. We are waiting for the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold to end the week near intra weekly highs.
Gold price made another attempt towards $1,850 today but price got rejected once again. Bulls should get worried if after a rejection price moves away too far from $1,850. Bulls should be worried if after the rejection price breaks below short-term support of $1,820.
Blue rectangle - resistance area
Black lines -Fibonacci retracements
Gold price is trading near but below the key resistance of $1,850-60. This area was once key support and is now key resistance. I do not expect Gold to break this level, at least not now. I believe we will first see a pull back at least towards the 38% Fibonacci level if not towards the 61.8% before the resumption of the bullish move that started last week at $1,763. At current levels I prefer to be neutral if not bearish. Before weekend I avoid opening new positions. That is why I prefer to wait and see how Monday starts before jumping in the market and before choosing sides.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on December 8, 2020
GBP/USD
The pound fell by 217 points due to yesterday's news about Prime Minister Boris Johnson's readiness to end the hopeless negotiation process on Brexit. Subsequently, the price won back most of the fall, and the day closed with a black candlestick at 58 points. The MACD line stopped the fall. If the negative Brexit scenario is confirmed (we consider it as the main one), a second attempt to attack the MACD line will be more successful, the target is the 1.3180 level.
The actual target will be the 1.3108 level (November 12 low). The double divergence according to Marlin has worked out, the signal line of the oscillator is about to move into the downward trend zone, which will strengthen the bearish market sentiment.
The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled below the MACD line, yesterday's growth fell slightly short of this line and a reversal is taking place this morning. The first target for support is 1.3290, getting the pair to settle below it will strengthen the decline.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading signal for GBP/USD for December 10-11, 2020. Focus on Brexit.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and their negotiating teams did not achieve a much-desired breakthrough on Brexit. After concluding that they remain "very separate," the EU and the UK agreed to extend the talks until the end of the weekend. This can further weaken the British pound if they do not reach a deal before the transition period expires.
As talks continue in Brussels, the news is likely to move the British pound. Due to this, the British pound is under downward pressure on the 4-hour technical chart. However, it is facing an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe and at the 200-day EMA.
Looking up, the resistance is at 1.3360, where the 21-period moving average is located, followed by 1.3427, 6/8 Murray. At the upper target of 1.3549 (7/8 Murray), we should wait until the pound breaks above the 21 day EMA. If so, we can place buy positions with a final target at 1.3670. This boost is sure to appear if good news about Brexit is released.
We gave detailed recommendations and made analysis on Monday and Tuesday. We will leave the links below so that you can review our statistics on GBP/USD. Now if you open a bearish position, you can still hold it until the price touches the 200-day EMA. If the price bounces in this area, we can expect a new upward momentum. If the bearish trend is too strong, we recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.3180 and 1.3060.
The market sentiment in the early American session shows that there are 56% of investors who are selling the pound sterling. If this figure decreases, we could see a bearish breakout of the key level of 1.3220, and the price could fall to the area of 1.3060 in the coming days. So please be careful if you enter the market with to buy. The last opportunity to buy is above the 200 EMA, below this level, the downward pressure may accelerate.
Trading tip for GBP/USD for December 10 – 11
Buy above 1.3360 (EMA 21), with take profit at 1.3427, stop loss below 1.3320.
Buy if the pair rebounds around 1.3255 (trend channel), with take profit at 1.3310 and 1.3360, stop loss below 1.3210.(EMA 200)
Buy if the pair rebounds around 1.3220 (EMA 200), with take profit at 1.3270 and 1.3305 (5/8), stop loss below 1.3180.
Review our analysis for December 08, GBP/USD.
Review our analysis for December 09, GBP/USD.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 14, 2020
EUR/USD
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Sunday talks with Ursula von der Leyen ended in the fact that the deadline for the talks was postponed until December 31. It is not entirely clear how the ratification of the agreement will take place, but we believe that with this decision, the parties decided to disguise and soften Brexit without a deal, so as not to bring down the markets and shock the population.
The daily chart shows that the price is staying closer to the upper level of 1.2175, rather than to the support of 1.2037, so there is still a possibility of reaching the upper target of 1.2230 with the divergence forming with the Marlin oscillator. When the price approaches the support of the embedded line of the price channel (1.2037), it will strengthen the option of a reversal from the current levels, without preliminary growth. The current situation is neutral.
The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled below the MACD line, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator makes an attempt to enter the growth area, and this situation does not provide any advantage to any of the scenarios, the probability of growth and decline is the same.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 15, 2020
AUD/USD
Over the past day, the situation for the Australian Dollar has not changed. The quote is at the closing level of Friday last week. But in the technical picture, this increased the reversal potential. On the daily scale chart, the divergence from the Marlin oscillator becomes more distinct. To maintain this scenario, the price will need to be fixed under the nearest support of 0.7500.
The four-hour chart has its own divergence, which increases the probability of a reversal from the current levels.
With the price moving below 0.7500 (December 2017 low), the target of 0.7440 opens with intermediate support on the Kruzenshtern line at 0.7468. I think that in the current situation, we can overcome this line without difficulty. If the price moves below 0.7440, the next target would be at 0.7340.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
