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GBP / USD. December 18th. The results of the day. Boris Johnson is ready to return to the "tough" Brexit and takes a tough stance in future negotiations with the EU
4 hour time-frame
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 108p - 179p - 354p - 101p - 234p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 196p (high).
The GBP / USD currency pair on Wednesday trades continued a steady downward movement, which, from our point of view, is justified by only one factor. This factor is elections to the Parliament of Great Britain. They were left behind and deprived market participants of the foundation and the reason that allowed them to buy the pound in the last two months. Now that it is clear that the entire power in the country is concentrated in the hands of the Conservative Party, that neither Labor, nor Scottish nationalists, nor, moreover, other political forces, and even all of them combined, can prevent Boris Johnson from doing so, gives an opportunity with high accuracy to predict what will happen in the state in the near future.
Trading recommendations:
GBP / USD continues to form a new downtrend. The price has worked out the bottom line of the Ichimoku cloud and the first support level of 1.3083. Thus, a rebound from these strong support levels may trigger a round of upward correction. However, without rebounding the price from the indicated supports or without turning up the MACD indicator, it is not recommended to reduce sell positions. The following targets for trading are lowering 1.2931 and 1.2833. It is recommended that purchases of the British pound be returned no earlier than the price fixing above the Kijun-sen line, which is clearly not expected in the coming days.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chinkou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator: 3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.
Support / Resistance Classic Levels:
Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.
Pivot Level:
Yellow solid line.
Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:
Gray dotted lines without price designations.
Possible price movement options:
Red and green arrows.Translation
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for AUD / USD on December 20, 2019
AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar grew 32 points on good employment data which makes the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. In general, the correctional growth from the fall of the "Aussie" from December 13 to 17 was 61.8% which is 38.2% on the chart. Due to this, the growth may stop since a double divergence has already been formed on the Marlin oscillator, and the probability of triple divergence is historically small. The first goal of the new wave of decline is the nested price channel line at 0.6860. Overcoming this level opens up prospects for a medium-term decrease in the Australian dollar which is at 0.6820 according to the MACD line near the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, and at 0.6778 which is the reaction level of 161.8%. This continues on to the underlying embedded price channel line which is at 0.6678.
On the four-hour chart, the price is currently above the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD, and the Marlin oscillator is also in the growth zone. The departure of the price for these lines, below 0.6885, will reveal the main lowering scenario. The observed price above the indicator lines will be interpreted as false.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...5977c01d0f.png
Trading Recommendation Entry: 1.11104 Reason for Entry:
Horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension Take Profit : 1.10667
Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 1.11541
Reason for Stop loss:Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD for January 7, 2020
EURUSD remains in a bullish trend continuing to make higher highs and higher lows. Price so far has respected the key Cloud support area of 1.1040-1.1050. Thus we continue to see more upside potential over the coming days.
Price has broken above the Kumo (cloud) and has so far successfully back tested support. Price bounced off the Cloud and this was another bullish signal. EURUSD is now trading above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) while the kijun-sen is trending below tenkan-sen with a positive slope. With the tenkan-sen above the kijun-sen we have supporting evidence of a bullish trend. We continue to expect this next leg higher to move closer to 1.1280.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Australian network through franc
Good evening, dear traders. Congratulations to all Orthodox Christians on Christmas! I wish you well and financial well-being!
As you have probably already noticed, I often trade certain cross-courses using the grid method. And today, as an example of one of them, I will show how you can spread the correct network of limit purchases on the highly oversold AUD/CHF instrument.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...51d358bd8f.png
Please note that such counter-trend sets should be carried out only after fairly strong passes and an understanding of the average rollback for the pair. You can see some part of these numbers on the screen on the left with a 5-digit dimension.
Now, if you use the lot increase coefficient, you can calculate it according to the trader's calculator.
Good luck in trading and control the risks!
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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The collapse of the Boeing after another 737 crash
Good evening, dear traders. I present to you the trading idea for Boeing's Stock CFD.
So, yesterday, there was a terrible catastrophe of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 in Iran. Boeing fell shortly after takeoff and all 170 passengers died. Now, for the preliminary version: technical - engine fire. This is not the first crash with a Boeing in recent times. Thus, we recommended selling the shares that were mentioned back in December.
Boeing has a very interesting level of $ 318 from the point of view of hunting for stops. In fact, this is a platform with the feet of buyers of this asset for the entire last year. 737 was discontinued in December, but accidents continued with it. Against this background, we recommend holding short positions in order to break through the level of 319 with a further pull to historical 292:
Since the opening, the shares have lost $ 4. Therefore, we recommend developing the reduction to the above levels if you are not yet on sale.
Good luck in trading and control the risks!
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on January 10, 2020
GBP/USD
The British pound lost 30 points on Thursday. The price consolidated below the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling in the negative trend zone, but not due to the strong dynamics of the pound's decline, the balance indicator line (red) continues to hold the price, further slowing its decline. The continuation of such a tendency - a decrease in the British pound will lead to an increase in bullish sentiment, the market can take advantage of such confusion.
Data on US employment will be published today, the forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector for December is 162 thousand, this may be an incentive to further pull down the pound to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2968. But even in this case, the pound's decline rate may not be enough to overcome the balance indicator line. If it also remains below the price by the opening of Monday, then the correction of the British pound is possible next week. The 1.2968 level is technically strong.
On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday - one candle with the whole body was under this line, but at the moment the price is already above the MACD line. Such a false signal is also a sign of a short downward movement, if any (to our target 1.2968). The Marlin oscillator is moving after the price, it is not providing signals. Another price consolidation below the MACD line, as well as under the correction level of 23.6%, will open the nearest target at 1.2968. To move the price to lower targets (1.2820, 1.2730), which are marked on the daily scale, you need a rapid movement of the price down today.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on January 13, 2020
Quotes of the British pound are held for two days on the indicator line of the balance of the daily scale in red. Overcoming it will allow the price to consistently take the three immediate goals at the Fibonacci levels: 1.2968, 1.2820, 1.2730. The Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...bf81c380e6.png
On the four-hour chart, the price overcame the support of the MACD line, but did so with a gap. In this case, with a general declining trend and in the absence of warning reversal signals, the "window" serves as a harbinger of a further fall in prices, but it is not advisable for it to remain open for a long time.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...bf831a3742.png
We are waiting for the closure of this gap and a further decline in the British pound. The Marlin oscillator is developing in a declining trend zone.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on January 15, 2020
EUR /USD
The dollar slightly strengthened on Tuesday, with the release of inflation data for the United States, but investors found the data not sufficient enough for a more decisive offensive. As a result, the euro showed a decline of only five points by the close of the day. The basic consumer price index added 0.1% for December against the expected 0.2%, while maintaining an annual value of 2.3%.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves sideways directly along the boundary of the bullish and bearish trends, which creates the risk of continued correctional growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155. If the potential is not realized, a planned decrease to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% will follow at the price of 1.1073, where the MACD indicator line also passes.
On the four-hour chart, a price reversal from the MACD line was noted, but not fully realized. At the moment, the price is already above the balance line (red moving) and the Marlin oscillator is holding in the growth zone, which shows the price's intention to once again attack the MACD line. Now the condition for a further decrease is overcoming the price of yesterday's low.
In general, the situation is neutral and the euro may cheer up today's data on industrial production for November (forecast 0.3%), but tomorrow retail sales in the US for December will be released, the forecast for which is 0.5% for basic sales and 0.3% for general . It is likely that investors are planning more active actions for this data.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Control zones of USDJPY 1/20/2020
Last week's movement made it possible for a local accumulation zone to form. This happened within the average monthly move, which indicates the presence of limit sell orders. Purchases from current levels are not profitable, since the probability of closing the trade in January is above the zone of the monthly move below 30%. A model has not yet been formed for selling, which indicates the need to switch to standby mode.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...50994e1453.png
Keeping part of the purchases opened at the beginning of this month is the optimal strategy, since the probability of absorption of the latest growth from current levels is below 20%.
To enter a short position requires the formation of an absorption pattern at the daily level. Closing of trading on Monday should occur below the low of last week. This will indicate the appearance of a major offer from significant market players. Work in the downward direction is more profitable, since the monthly range of the average stroke has already been overcome by the pair....
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...509abbef45.png
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis recommendations for USD/JPY and its crosses
USD / JPY
The yen began in 2020 with the realization of what did not work out last year. So far, the pair closed the week in the bullish zone of the relative weekly cloud. Now, the main task of the players is fixing in this zone to increase in the near future. After that, monthly resistance will follow 110.70 - 110.83 - 111.40. However, breaking through the monthly boundaries is a more difficult task, since this will eliminate the monthly dead cross and mark the exit to the bullish zone of the relative Ichimoku cloud at the most upper time. In this situation, support is located at 109.50 (weekly cloud + monthly medium-term trend + daily short-term trend) - 109 (weekly Tenkan and the lower border of the cloud + daily Kijun and the upper border of the cloud) - Fixing below 108.08-30 can move players away from their goals for a long time.
EUR / JPY
At the beginning of the year, the pair attempted a new test of important resistance, but the first target of the daily target for breakdown of the cloud (122.55), now strengthened by the lower border of the weekly cloud (122.71), withstood the defense again. As a result, we observe the next development of a downward correction. The nearest support is the daytime cross of Ichimoku, first Tenkan (121.96), then Kijun (121.48), as well as the most protected area 121.24 (weekly Tenkan + daytime cloud + final line of the daytime cross of Ichimoku). At the same time, securing below can significantly affect the current balance of power, opening up new prospects for players to decline.
GBP / JPY
The pound / yen is trying to gain a foothold and stay in the bullish zone relative to the weekly cloud, using the cloud as support. Now, the main attention of the players to increase is aimed at breaking through the weekly short-term trend (143.65) and eliminating the dead crosses of Ichimoku at the daily (144.38 - 145.21) and monthly (145.07) time intervals. Moreover, breaking through these resistance forms new horizons and opportunities before the players to increase. The nearest support, in turn, can now be identified at 141.54 (monthly medium-term trend + daily cloud) and 140.34 - 139.12 (weekly levels + lower border of the daily cloud). Fixing below will change the existing balance and can lead to an active recovery of bearish sentiment.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for AUD/USD on January 23, 2020
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar absorbed a positive market sentiment relative to the British pound yesterday, and just this morning, this news was actively played back on the positive employment data. By December, about 29 thousand people got a job, this is contrary and higher than the 15 thousand on the forecast. This makes the overall unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 5.1%. In the Asian session, the growth of the "Australian dollar" graduated to 34 points, and the price exactly reached the MACD line on the daily chart. In the European session, exit above the line 0.6880 with consolidation above it and on Friday, the growth may extend to the price channel line 0.6903.
The price exceeded the MACD line on the four-hour chart but is still under the balance line, which means that the situation is developing mainly according to the older chart. For this day, everything will depend on whether the price can fix itself above the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values is already a sign of the price's intention to overcome the resistance of the senior TF, but in any scenario this growth is corrective.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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GBP/USD. UK after Brexit: waiting for collapse?
The UK will officially leave the European Union in five days. More precisely, the so-called "transition period" will begin, with which many identify the beginning of the real Brexit. Over the next 11 months, little will change for Great Britain. The country will cease to take part in the decision-making of the European Union, the British deputies will leave the European Parliament, however, the established trade relations and other rules and regulations by which the UK has lived in recent years will remain in force. Now, a month and a half after Boris Johnson's victory in the election, when passions and euphoria subsided, many experts conclude that the victory of the Conservatives is a result of the fragmentation of the political views of the opponents of Brexit, and not the excessive popularity of Conservatives among the people. In other words, there was only one option with the end of Brexit - vote for the Conservatives, and there were much more options against Brexit. At the same time, both the Scots, the Northern Irish, and the Welsh, supporting Brexit, had to vote not for "their" parties, but all for those Conservatives. For those who reject Brexit, they voted for the Scottish National Party, for the Labour Party, and for other political forces. As a result, all the voices of the opponents of Brexit were divided into 3-4 parties, all the voices of the supporters of Brexit left the party of Boris Johnson. However, now all this is not important. It's important - what the odious prime minister and his ruling party will lead the country to.
In fact, in the coming year, all questions to Johnson's team come down to whether he will be able to agree with the U on a new trade deal that will operate after the end of the transition period? According to many experts, the main thing that is required of Johnson is to sign such a deal that does not harm the UK economy as much as possible, which has been losing huge amounts over the past three years due to Brexit and, in any case, will continue to lose them in 2020. Nobody believes that the deal will be the way Johnson himself sees it. Johnson is not Trump, but the European Union is not China. The biggest question that causes skepticism among all market participants is the timing of negotiations on trade relations with the EU. Eleven months is very little to conclude such a comprehensive deal. Thus, either Johnson will be able to conclude a "surface" agreement in a short time, or he will have to extend the transition period for two years (which Johnson does not want) and conduct more meaningful negotiations, without forcing events and slowly.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EUR/USD: euro threatened by the epidemic
According to a consensus estimate by Bloomberg analysts, the euro will rise to $1.14 against the US currency by the end of June. The increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the outbreak of coronavirus in China and the threat of a trade war between Washington and Brussels made investors doubt the realism of this forecast.
Although many believe the new virus is less dangerous than SARS in 2003, the worst is probably yet to come. Globalization, more developed than at the beginning of the century, the infrastructure of China and the tendency of the latter to travel to the Lunar New Year are factors that can contribute to the rapid spread of coronavirus throughout the planet.
The world economy did not have time to recover from a trade conflict between the United States and China, as it is already threatened by a new scourge. The fact that in November, global trade fell by 0.6% in monthly terms and 1.1% in annual terms does not please the bulls in EUR/USD.
The problems of the export-oriented economy of the eurozone do not end there. The United States, under the threat of imposing duties on importing cars from the European Union, may demand that American companies expand their access to the European agricultural market. Moreover, Washington could avenge Brussels on its carbon tax. Turning a blind eye to environmental issues, the White House regards the introduction of tariffs by other states as a manifestation of protectionism.
Meanwhile, the US economy is still on its feet. According to IHS Markit, the US composite purchasing managers index reached a ten-month high in January due to increased business activity in the services sector. The data on PMI in the non-manufacturing sector of the eurozone, on the contrary, disappointed, which makes it possible for the EUR/USD bears to win back the divergence factor in US and EU economic growth.
The external background is extremely unfavorable for the euro bulls, so the main currency pair's decline to seven-week lows appears quite logical. Neither the January meeting of the ECB's Governing Session, nor the data on European business activity, could provide adequate support to fans of the euro. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to do this, a meeting of which, along with releases on US and European GDP for the fourth quarter, is one of the key events of this week, is unknown.
The goal of EUR/USD bears at 1.1000 is just around the corner, and then support at 1.0960 will appear on the horizon. As for the bulls, their immediate task is to overcome the powerful resistance of 1.1065, then the resistance of 1.1100 and 1.1175.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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USD/CAD control zones for February 5, 2020
The test of the weekly control zone 1.3292-1.3276 occurred at the beginning of the week. This made the fixing of the previously opened purchases possible. Meanwhile, the reversal pattern has not yet been formed, so it is quite early to completely exit the long position. The probability of continued growth is still high.
Sales from the current levels are not profitable, as the probability of testing the November high still remains above 70%. On the other hand, an alternative corrective model will be developed if the "false break" pattern of the weekly high is formed today. This will allow sales to be considered in the nearest support zone tomorrow.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2020
Yesterday's US data on business activity in the non-manufacturing sector for January showed consistently high readings: the service PMI from Markit in the final assessment was raised to 53.4 from 53.2, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was 55.5 against 55.0 in December. This is a good sign of the stability of the American economy during the development of the coronavirus. The economic indicators of the Asia-Pacific countries are deteriorating, and the dollar is already becoming unshakeable. It is important to note that the strengthening of the dollar began on February 3, the day of the start of the presidential election campaign in the United States. We don't think it's a coincidence. During his time in office, Trump has repeatedly changed his position on the strength of the national currency, but the facts show one thing – the dollar has steadily strengthened over the past two years. We believe that now Donald Trump will be more specific.
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The euro has completed its immediate task - it is fixed under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. Now the pair's immediate target is 1.0925 – the lows of September 12 and 3, 2019. The second target is the minimum of October 1 at 1.0880.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...b7fdd1ea00.png
On the four-hour chart, the price is fixed under the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone. The decline continues.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2020
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro managed to gain a foothold under the enclosed line of the price channel, which originates from the top of 2008. On the daily chart, the price also went under the Fibonacci reaction level of 138.2%.
Yesterday's publication of industrial orders in Germany for December showed a decrease of 2.1% against expectations of growth of 0.6%. In the US, the weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits showed 202 thousand such applications against the forecast of 215 thousand and 217 thousand a week earlier. The average monthly value of this indicator is 211.2 thousand. Taking into account the excellent data on employment in the private sector from ADP of 291 thousand and good employment sub-indexes in the ISM structure – 46.6 in the manufacturing sector and 53.1 in the non-manufacturing sector, there is a high chance that today's data on new jobs in the non-agricultural sector for January will come out better than the forecast. The forecast for the Non-Farm employment change is 163 thousand against 145 thousand in December. The forecast for wage growth is 0.3% compared to 0.1% a month earlier.
On a four-hour chart, the price drops below the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator goes deeper into the negative trend zone. The decline targets are visible on the daily chart: 1.0925 - minimum on September 3 and 12, 2019, and 1.0880 - minimum on October 1.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 13, 2020
EUR/USD
Yesterday's publication of data on industrial production in the eurozone was worse than expected - the December decline was-2.1% versus the expected -1.8%. In Europe, they talked about a potentially even greater economic failure due to the epidemic in China. But China itself predicts that the epidemic will decline in April. The euro lost 40 points on Wednesday. The 1.0880 target was fulfilled, there was a consolidation under the lower TF. The following goals are determined by Fibonacci levels: 161.8% - 1.0840, 200.0% - 1.0745.
A convergence is outlined on the four-hour chart on the Marlin Oscillator, this is a sign of a slight correction before a further decline. Consolidation will likely take place before the level of 1.0905.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EURUSD: euro not pleased with the European Commission's future outlook for eurozone inflation. US inflation report will return the market to its place
The European currency was not very happy with the fact that consumer prices in Germany fell again in January, having justified all the forecasts of analysts, who put on another decline. The main decline in prices was due to a sharp drop in demand for tourism services, and there are reasons for this. According to the statistics agency Destatis, the final CPI of Germany in January 2020 fell by 0.6% compared to December and increased by 1.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The data fully coincided with the expectations of economists. As for inflation harmonized by EU standards, the index decreased by 0.8% in January compared to December and increased by 1.6% compared to January 2019.
The European Commission expects that economic growth will remain stable, and all emphasis is placed on domestic demand, while easing fiscal policies may support the economy in the future. The report also called for eurozone countries to pursue structural reforms aimed at boosting economic growth.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, buyers of risky assets continue to actively fight for the level of 1.0865, having missed that on inflation data in the US, one can only hope for lows in the areas of 1.0840 and 1.0800. If the scenario of profit taking on short positions by large players justifies itself after the data, then the upward correction will be limited by the first intermediate resistance level of 1.0890, but larger highs are seen in the areas of 1.0925 and 1.0950.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for AUD/USD on February 18, 2020
AUD/USD
A minutes was issued from the last RBA meeting on monetary policy this morning. Committee members agreed that the economy will slightly decline in the medium term due to drought and the outbreak of SARS in China. By the end of the year, financial politicians are waiting for the economy to grow, pending the growth of investment in fixed assets. This made market participants doubt such optimism, since the IMF expects the global economy to weaken by the end of the year. It was also mentioned that the committee was considering options for lowering the rate, but decided to postpone and leave room for maneuver in the event of a worsening economic situation. In general, the rates are supposed to be kept at a low level for quite a long time.
This release, of course, did not contribute in any way to purchases of the Australian dollar and the aussie lost more than 20 points in the Asian session. The Australian dollar's technical reversal occurred from the Fibonacci level of 161.8% yesterday. The target is 0.6624 in terms of the Fibonacci level of 223.6% and the support of the price channel line is open. Perhaps there will be a breakout of the level, and the price will reach 0.6595 at the Fibonacci level of 238.2%. After this movement, a correction is likely.
On the H4 chart, the price crossed both indicator support lines - the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). Marlin is declining in the negative trend zone. The Australian dollar will continue to decline.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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What are the major institutions trading? | Weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report (17/2 to 21/2)
On the H4 chart, the price crossed both indicator support lines - the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). Marlin is declining in the negative trend zone. The Australian dollar will continue to decline.
Our strongest currency is the US Dollar with a bullish strength factor of 1.73 and with institutions adding more long contracts.
Our weakest currency is the New Zealand Dollar with a bearish strength factor 1.43 and with a net bearish positions of 2,287 meaning that there are a lot of institutions adding on to their short positions (2,983) while at the same time, reducing their long positions (-696).
With a weak NZD and a strong USD, it would be good to look for short NZD/USD positions for this week.
Also worth noting are the weak Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar and the strong Euro, Pound and Canadian dollar.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 20, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro gained 13 points on Wednesday as part of a moderate expected correction after the previous three-figure fall. The growth could have been greater, but this was hindered by the fall of the British pound and the Japanese yen and the report on the eurozone balance of payments for December, which showed a balance of 32.6 billion euros against expectations of 34.5 billion. Data on the laying of new homes in the US for January showed a small decrease: 1.57 million against 1.63 million a month earlier, but the issued building permits increased from 1.42 million to 1.56 million, showing the highest figure since January 2007. Published minutes from the last FOMC Fed meeting showed nothing interesting.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is pointing upward, it is possible to continue the correction to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0840. The main objectives of declining 1.0745 and 1.0650/80 are maintained.
On the four-hour chart, the double convergence according to Marlin retains its potential effect, which may result in continued price growth, but the signal line of the oscillator stopped at the boundary with the territory of growth. Its withdrawal under its own support (the turquoise line) neutralizes the influence of convergence. This will happen if the price goes below yesterday's low.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 24/02/2020
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair rallied through all the near technical resistance levels located at 1.2871, 1.2904, 1.2939 and 1.2962, but eventually, bulls did not make it through the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2988. The market had made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern around this level and the bears took control over the market. Currently, the price is coming off the hight and traders around the level of 1.2939. The larger timeframe trend remains up, but the recent breakout from the consolidation zone is a signal, that the uptrend might be reversed soon.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3255
WR2 - 1.3152
WR1 - 1.3043
Weekly Pivot - 1.2942
WS1 - 1.2840
WS2 - 1.2740
WS3 - 1.2640
Trading recommendations:
The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down in the longer term, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3512.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...36c3806bc0.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 27, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro once again tried to compete with the resistance of the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0898) on Wednesday, the trading volume was high, it is very likely that investors again accumulated short positions. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary of the growth territory. The degree of probability of a reversal from this boundary will be considered on a smaller scale chart.
At H4, the oscillator signal line exited down from the wedge and returned to it. In general, this is still a signal for a price reversal. Confirmation of a reversal will be when the price leaves yesterday's low of 1.0855. The immediate goal of the euro 1.0813 is to support the MACD line. Next, we expect the euro at a quote of 1.0745 - at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (daily).
But the euro is still growing. The growth limit may be the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.0933.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 28, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro showed an abnormal growth of 120 points on Thursday amid moderate (canadian dollar) or even indistinct (Australian dollar) development in other leading currencies.. The reason for this was the widespread risk aversion and the curtailment of European carry trade transactions. The US stock market (S&P 500) fell 4.42%, in one week the decline blocked the previous four-month growth. The market likelihood (in accordance with futures on federal funds) of the Fed's rate cut in March in one day increased from 44.3% to 97.4%, even for April, another cut is 73.1% compared to 27.5% the day before. At a time when the epidemic of the coronavirus began to subside, a storm came to the markets. On the other hand, this is the best time to blow out market bubbles and remove small players from the market. Major players left the market last year. Euro trading volumes were the highest yesterday in the last 5.5 months. The lion's share did not fall on purchases, but on closing stop losses above 1.09. The euro corrected 50% of the entire decline on December 31-March 20. Now you can turn down. The fact is that if investors really consider the collapse to be the beginning of a new global crisis, whether they want it or not, the world will buy dollars even when rates are lowered, but carry trade deals, according to experience, are closed very quickly.
The euro reached a low of January 2020 and the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. Growth was stopped by the red indicator line of balance, which from a purely technical point of view indicates that the downward mood will continue. The MACD line is also higher than the price. The Marlin has risen, but shows an intention to turn down.
The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator in the overbought zone. Taking into account yesterday's volumes, we can expect some price delay in the area of the reached high, investors will need several days to make new decisions. A signal for the resumption of sales will be when the price leaves the under the MACD line, approximately, around 1.0890-1.0900, that is, from the place where there were recent stop losses.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on March 3, 2020
GBP/USD
The quote of the British pound remained at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% for two days. Investors are waiting for news from the negotiations of the British delegation with European politicians. The current stage of negotiations will end on Thursday. Consolidating the price under yesterday's low opens the target at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2670. The second target is 161.8% at 1.2530. It is also possible to continue trading in the range, then the price can once again be marked at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2844).
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving up, which may be a warning of another local increase before the medium-term decrease (potential, expected). Here, the resistance is the MACD line, which moves to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. The Marlin oscillator by this time will reach the boundary with the growth territory and will turn down from it.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for GBP/USD on March 4, 2020
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the growth of the British pound was stopped at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2843). At the moment, technical indicators do not show any proactive signals of continued growth or a price reversal. The same situation of uncertainty in the political sphere, the results of trade talks between the UK and the EU should become known tomorrow.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator touched the boundary with the growth territory. There may be a downward turn from this line, but there may be continued growth.
In general, the situation is going down on both scales - the price is lower than the indicator lines, there are no warning reversal patterns. The pound may rise after the price overcomes the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2904), a return to decline is likely after leaving the level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2760. We are waiting for news from Brussels where trade negotiations take place.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 5, 2020
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD quote continues to stay at the Fibonacci level of 76.4% on the daily scale chart, in the area of Monday's close. Trading volumes were high, indicating closing positions from purchases since February 21. The euro is unfolding.
The first goal 1.1035 is to support the MACD line on a daily chart. The second target, 1.0990, is an embedded price channel line, overcoming of which, in turn, opens the way to a medium-term decline in the euro. Investors are laying a 90% chance that the ECB will lower the deposit rate from the current -0.50% to -0.60% at its meeting on March 12th.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 10, 2020
EUR/USD
In the last three weeks of growth, the euro corrected 38.2% of the fall from February 2018 to February 2020. Today, in the Asian session, the euro's fall is more than 70 points, which shows the clear intention of the price to close the gap on Monday. Next, we are waiting for the testing of the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.1200, which coincides with the top on December 13 (marked with a tick).
Fixing the price below this level will direct the price to the support of the MACD line (1.1085). Fixing the price below it will confirm the market's intention to continue selling euros.
As seen on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down sharply. This is a sign of the market's intention to move down. The support for the MACD line at 1.1200 coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the higher-scale chart. Accordingly, the level is strong and requires increased care. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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How is coronavirus spreading around the planet? The US, Italy, Spain, China and Iran are at high risk
The Chinese pneumonia virus COVID-2019 has "captured" more than 100 countries around the world. More than 105,000 people are infected, mostly in China. The largest number of infected and deaths is in the "hotbed" of infection - China. Apart from China, Italy has been the most affected at the moment, with more than 6,000 cases of infection. More than 200 people were killed. The entire country is under quarantine. Schools and cinemas have been closed, all sporting events have been canceled, and any events where a large number of people may gather are prohibited. Some regions with the highest number of cases are quarantined. Citizens are not allowed to leave their homes without good reason. According to the current plan, such measures have been taken until April 3. No one knows what will happen after April 3. Everything will depend on whether it is possible to stop the spread of infection in the country. The Italian authorities decided to involve an additional 20,000 doctors and nurses in the fight against the virus. The main thing now is to stop the infection. It is noted that about 600 people are in intensive care, but about 600 have fully recovered. The average age of those who died from the virus is 81 years. It follows that first of all deaths are recorded in the elderly. People with weak, due to age-related reasons, immunity and health. 80% of people who died from the virus had other diseases. Thus, on the example of Italy, we can conclude that the virus is not fatal, but can lead to a fatal outcome if the patient has poor health. Thus, the elderly and people with weak immune systems are primarily at risk.
Meanwhile, panic is brewing in countries with the highest incidence of the disease. Thank God that so far this word only refers to the desire of people to stock up on all necessary products and not to leave the house without unnecessary need. Therefore, a shortage of certain foods may occur. For example, in the UK, Secretary of Health Matt Hancock urged people not to buy more than they needed, assuring that there was enough food for everyone. The minister also assured that he works with supermarkets in the direction of delivering food and necessary goods to the home in case people have to isolate themselves. However, representatives of UK supermarkets argue that the demand for the most necessary food products is "going wild" and cast doubt on the fact that the authorities will be able to keep the situation under control and provide all citizens with food and basic necessities. One of the directors of large supermarket chains even stated that there were no contacts with the government.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EURUSD reaches key Fibonacci level and bounces
EURUSD was expected to pull back towards the key Fibonacci levels we have mentioned in our previous analysis. EURUSD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has bounced off of it.
EURUSD has pulled back as a back test of the broken wedge pattern. Price has so far reached the 61.8% level and is bouncing. As we explained in our last Ichimoku cloud analysis, we had a weak sell signal and the first target was the cloud support at 1.1130. Price surpassed our target and reached 1.1060.
So far the back test is successful and supportive of the bullish continuation of the break out. If price pushes back inside the wedge pattern and stays below, then this would be a very bearish sign.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Trader's diary for March 18, 2020, Oil fell amid coronavirus outbreak
Oil, as can be seen on the chart, fell to $ 26 for two main reasons, first, OPEC Price War in Russia. Second, the global crisis due to coronavirus which leads to a drop in oil demand.
EURUSD:
The euro is trying to start a new wave of decline against the dollar.
Euro is in a fundamentally bad condition as Europe has become the center of the coronavirus pandemic, and the strongest economies namely Italy, Germany and France are at their most vulnerable state. Due to this, the economy will suffer serious losses.
From an economic point of view, the euro can fall right down to parity with the dollar.
You can keep sales from 1.1053.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 19, 2020
EUR/USD
Yesterday, trading in the euro took place in a wide range of about 250 points, this morning the price tested the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart and returned to the red indicator line balance, and opening day occurred under this line, which speaks of the intention of the price to decline further, the market came under the control of the bears. The goal of the decline is the low line of the price channel around 1.0640.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...2f57d8bb42.jpg
On the four-hour chart, yesterday's convergence on the Marlin oscillator turned out to be broken, although its effect was reflected in more than 80-point growth in the euro. Currently, Marlin is developing in its own downward channel, the lower boundary of which is very, very low.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...2f58ff2ae1.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 20, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro collapsed by 250 points on Thursday, pausing on the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly turned upwards, which may develop into a short-term price correction, as an option, to the February 20 low at the price of 1.0778. The departure of the quote under the price channel line (1.0644) opens the target at 1.0493 - the February 2017 low. Price taking above 1.0778 will extend the correction to 1.0879 - to the October 1, 2019 low.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...44406589b1.jpg
The Marlin oscillator also reverses upwards on the four-hour chart, remaining within its own descending channel. We are waiting for the correction to be completed as well as for the euro to fall.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...44418e3fe4.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 23, 2020
EUR/USD
The price was marked on the support line of the embedded price channel in the region of 1.0636 on Thursday, Friday, and today. Finally, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards on the daily chart, which creates the prerequisite for corrective growth to the level of 1.0879 - to a low of October 1, 2019. Overcoming the Friday low of 1.0636 opens the target 1.0493 - the low of February 2017.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...82f6d6ec79.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator did not form a strong convergence, the signal line has not yet left the zone of negative indicators. The indicator potential may be enough to work out the price of correctional target of 1.0879.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...82f8037c1a.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 24, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro showed a timid correction growth on Monday, but this growth has become confident today in the Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to gain strength. The first goal of the correction is still the 1.0879 level – the October 1, 2019 low, its overcoming opens the second goal of 1.0967 – the area where the 38.2% Fibonacci level intersects with the embedded line of the price channel and, possibly, also the MACD line, which is approaching this point. The level is created strong, so now we expect the euro to fall from it with a high probability.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...984c37d4c2.jpg
The Marlin oscillator strengthened the growth on the four-hour chart, the signal line was fixed in the zone of positive values – the first goal of 1.0879 is likely to be taken, and the pair's quote will continue to grow towards the second goal.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...984d67b3c8.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for AUD/USD on March 25, 2020
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar grew by 145 points on Tuesday, since it worked the correction level of 38.2% of the movement on March 9-19. There are no strong reversal signs, growth to the second correction target by Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 0.6095 is possible.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ad37fb4d0d.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line (blue indicator), which shows the price's intention to continue rising to the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 0.6095. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator lies in the lateral direction, which indicates the imminent completion of growth, that is, above 50%, the correction will no longer work.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ad393caed6.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro added more than 90 points yesterday and reached the first target level of 1.0879. Today, the euro added another 50 points in the Asian session, clearly slowing down on the resistance of the balance line (red indicator ) of the daily price scale. The next growth target is the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 38.2% with the enclosed line of the price channel in the region of 1.0967. At about the same moment, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator can touch the zero line - the boundary with the growth territory, and turn down.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c2527a498b.jpg
The price touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart, according to Marlin there is no reversal formation, as a result, the price can make a false exit above the MACD line with working out the target on the daily timeframe, after which we wait for the price to turn down with the target at 1.0636.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c253b08fcc.jpg
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 27, 2020
EUR/USD
The euro climbed 150 points on Thursday due to rising risk appetite amid massive infusion of dollar liquidity by the Federal Reserve worth 75 billion dollars a day, the stock market will grow more than 6% (S&P 500 6.24%) and at the same time on the tragic data on applications for unemployment benefits – this past week showed the US economy's opinion in antivirus quarantine, the number of applications reached 3.283 million (!) against the forecast of 1.648 million Before the highest record figure was 669,000 in April 2009. The employment forecast for the next week shows economists' expectations for an increase in unemployment in March from 3.5% to 4.0% and a decrease in non-agricultural employment by 420,000 (in September 2008-422,000). In the euro area, the employment situation is even worse than in the US, but the markets in this situation have traditionally reacted sensitively to the very fact of bad data. Unemployment in Germany for March is expected to rise to 5.1%. We are cautious about the growth of the euro. Also, in the market, investors are taking risks with caution – the trading volume was even less than in the previous days of the week.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d7b62c9381.jpg
The correction was already 50% of the fall on March 9-20. The euro's desire to continue its corrective growth to 61.8% will be fraught with even greater difficulties. The Fibonacci level range of 50.0-61.8% contains multiple technical levels that have accumulated since July 2019. The price is currently above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator has broken into the growth zone, but the market just needs to swing down a little and the indicators will again be in negative values. Consolidating the price above the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.1070) will make it possible to continue growth from the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1170. Moving the price under the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which will also mean breaking through the support of the price channel (1.0970), opening a promising goal of 1.0630 along the lower line of the price channel. The intermediate target level of 1.0879 is the low of October 1, 2019.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d7b75b10f1.jpg
The price is still in a growing position on the four-hour chart, but the leading indicator Marlin is already turning down. We are waiting for the development of events.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forecast for AUD/USD on March 30, 2020
AUD/USD
The Australian pound grew by 122 points on Friday, with the upper shadow marking the enclosed line of the price channel. Today in the Asian session there is an intention of the price to move down from the achieved resistance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also touched the boundary with the growth territory and turns around from it. The purpose of the decline, in the case of a confirmed reversal, becomes the underlying price channel line in the region of 0.5838.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...17ab0111e0.jpg
The price exit above Friday's high could extend the aussie's growth to the upper embedded line of the price channel at the intersection with the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 0.6410. The MACD line also tends to this point.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...17ac35ccc1.jpg
On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, a double divergence has formed, the sign of a reversal has strengthened.
Trading recommendations. It is advisable to open sales directly from current levels with consolidating profit in front of the level of 0.5838, S/L 0.6206. If the price goes above 0.6206, we buy with a target in front of the level of 0.6410, S/L 0.6113.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
