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EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential drop!
Price is approaching our first resistance level.
Entry : 0.8858 Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, channel's resistance
Stop Loss : 0.8956 Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit : 0.8773
Why it's good :23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!
Price is approaching our first resistance level.
Entry : 1.1227
Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, descending resistance line, 61.8% Fibonacci extension
Stop Loss : 1.1266 Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance
Take Profit : 1.1180
Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 28.05.2019
Crypto Industry News:
One of the largest peer-to-peer cryptocurrencies, LocalBitcoins.com, has banned users living in Iran, according to information published on the company's website.
The source previously informed the financial media in an e-mail that the impulse to limit Iranian transactions was to comply with financial regulations in Finland, where the headquarters of LocalBitcoins.com is located. In addition, the stock exchanges allegedly cut off users from Iran because of sanctions previously imposed on other exchanges by the United States.
Coinbase and Binance cryptocurrency exchanges do not currently support users residing in Iran as well.
Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair might have completed wave (4) and now the market is unfolding the wave (5) to the upside, but the momentum behind the move up is still low. The target for this wave is seen at the level of $304. For now, the market is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow range between the levels of $278.14 - $263.42 as the market participants wait for the breakout.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $321.20
WR2 - $292.77
WR1 - $283.99
Weekly Pivot - $254.33
WS1 - $241.65
WS2 - $213.82
WS3 - $203.55
Trading Recommendations:
The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to buy the local pull-back as wave 4 is in progress in anticipation of the wave 5 to the upside. Please pay attention to the technical resistance at the level of $278.14 as any breakout above this level is bullish. On the other hand, any violation of the level of $226.17 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support at the level of $212.12.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential drop!
EURGBP approaching resistance, potential drop!
Description :
Price is approaching our first resistance level.
Entry : 0.8852
Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss : 0.8907
Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension
Take Profit : 0.8773
Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
GBP/JPY approaching support, big potential bounce coming!!
Price is approaching our first support level.
Entry : 137.65
Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension
Stop Loss : 136.29
Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension
Take Profit : 139.61
Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Another failed attempt of the Dollar index capture the 98 price level.
The Dollar index ended last week on a mixed to bearish note as price recaptured the critical resistance at the 98 price level only to lose it with a big decline on the last trading day of the week.
Red rectangle - major resistance
Green rectangle - major support
The Dollar index made new highs on May 23rd but price reversed and did not close above 98. On May 29th and 30th we saw new higher highs but on a closing basis above the major resistance area depicted with a red rectangle. However on the last trading day we saw another reversal. The inability to break above 98 and stay above it, is a worrying sign for bulls. However as long as price is trading above the green rectangle, bulls remain in control of the trend. The many failed attempts point to a bigger reversal in trend, taking into consideration how much time has the index around 98 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from 103.75 to 88.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 04.06.2019
Crypto Industry News:
The Japan House of Representatives officially approved a new bill to amend national laws regulating the cryptographic industry.
The draft law - prepared by the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and approved by the House in mid-March this year - was adopted by a majority of votes at the plenary session of the Chamber of Councilors, in accordance with the current update of the FSA on the official website.
The project is aimed at introducing changes to two national laws regarding cryptographic assets - the act on the settlement of funds and the law on financial instruments and exchange. Now that the bill has been adopted, the amended acts are expected to enter into force in April 2020.
The proposed changes to Japanese financial instruments and payment services will ostentatiously tighten the regulation of cryptocurrencies to promote user protection, more stringent regulation of trading in cryptographic instruments, mitigate industry risks, such as stock market busts, and the broad establishment of a more transparent legal framework for new asset classes.
According to earlier reports, the bill also introduces a legal change in the name of cryptocurrencies as "cryptographic assets", previously marked in the country as "virtual currencies". The draft also provides for stricter rules regarding trading in margins, limiting the leverage to double and four times the initial deposit.
Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made another wave to the downside as anticipated. This wave is a part of the wave 4 correction and so far reached the level of $7,739 after all the technical supports were violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,484. This corrective cycle might evolve into an ABCDE Triangle pattern as well, so please keep an eye on the further developments.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,284
WR2 - $9,622
WR1 - $9,121
Weekly Pivot - $8.545
WS1 - $8,037
WS2 - $7,438
WS3 - $6,960
Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still up. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
USD/JPY to test resistance, a drop is possible!
USDJPY to test key resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible
Entry: 109.012
Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance
Stop Loss : 109.914
Why it's good :50% Fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing high resistance
Take Profit : 107.854
Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
GBP/USD near support, a bounce is possible!
GBPUSD is near support, a bounce to 1st resistance is possible
Entry: 1.2844
Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support
Stop Loss : 1.1256
Why it's good :38.2% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support
Take Profit : 1.1342
Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/06/2019:
Technical Market Overview:
After two Pin Bar like candlestick formation around the upper consolidation boundary, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading close to the support zone located between the levels of 1.2652 - 1.2668. The momentum is barely holding the neutral fifty level and it looks like is about to go lower as well. The stochastic is in the middle of the range now, so all sum up there is no direct signal regarding the future price move now, but the support zone is tempting to be violated. In this scenario, the next target for bears is seen at level 1.2605.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2954
WR2 - 1.2856
WR1 - 1.2800
Weekly Pivot Point: 1.2708
WS1 - 1.2658
WS2 - 1.2549
WS3 - 1.1502
Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
USD/CAD approaching resistance, potential reversal!
Price is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.
Entry : 1.3437
Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance
Stop Loss : 1.3499
Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit : 1.3364
Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
News are provided by InstaForex
EUR/GBP near resistance, a drop is possible!
EURGBP is near resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible
Entry: 0.8982
Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance
Stop Loss : 0.9063
Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance
Take Profit : 0.8791
Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
GBP/USD near resistance, a drop is possible!
GBPUSD is near resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible
Entry: 1.2564
Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance
Stop Loss : 1.2660
Why it's good :horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension
Take Profit : 1.2462
Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
USD/JPY approaching support, possible bounce!
Price is approaching its support where it could potentially bounce up to its resistance at 108.161
Entry : 107.492
Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension
Take Profit : 108.161
Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 25, 2019
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...1a94393ae0.png
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the pound solved the main task for the possibility of further growth - it consolidated above the line of the price channel on the daily chart. The balance line was on top of a strong resistance. The daily Marlin oscillator signal line lies at the horizon, which makes it possible for the pound to continue its slow growth below the balance line and reach the MACD line (1.2832), presumably at the point where both indicator lines coincide. From this point, a reversal or correction is likely.
There is a weak convergence on the four-hour chart on the Marlin oscillator, but nevertheless it is closer in form to consolidation in the growth zone, which may soon continue to increase the indicator and price.
A signal for a reversal will be the departure of the price below the price channel line on the daily chart and below the MACD line (1.2690) at the four-hour price.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential drop!
EURGBP is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price. Entry: 0.8981
Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss : 0.9055
Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Technical analysis of Gold for June 27
Gold price has pulled back towards $1,400 as expected and noted in our previous posts. The risk reward ratio did not favor bulls and as the RSI was giving bearish divergence signs, we said that we prefer to take profits and stay neutral when price was above $1,430.
Blue lines - bearish divergence
Green line - support trend line
Gold price has pulled back from $1,439 towards $1,400. The bearish divergence warnings by the RSI have been fulfilled. Price has made the minimum required pull back. Price could continue lower towards $1,380-90 area before resuming its up trend. Short-term support is found at $1,410 and resistance at $1.425. Medium-term trend remains bullish. Gold bears will need to break below $1,270-$1,300 area in order to cancel the importance of this bullish breakout.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 03/07/2019:
Technical Overview:
The GBP/USD pair has broken below the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2611 and is heading lower. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2559 and 1.2529. The key support is seen at the level of 1.2505 and if this level is violated the downtrend will accelerate. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2605.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2870
WR2 - 1.2829
WR1 - 1.2757
Weekly Pivot - 1.2708
WS1 - 1.2629
WS2 - 1.2585
WS1 - 1.2508
Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.2505 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down and the recent rally up is the first sign the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
AUD/USD: commodity market growth and the "hangover" of dollar bulls
The Australian dollar continues to gain momentum: the AUD/USD pair confidently overcame the key mark of 0.7000 and consolidated in the middle of the 70th figure. For two days, the pair shows a nearly recoilless growth, returning lost positions. It is noteworthy that the aussie turned 180 degrees after the July meeting of the RBA, at which the regulator lowered the interest rate and allowed a further easing of monetary policy. Such an abnormal market reaction is primarily associated with the general weakening of the US currency. In addition, the aussie continues to receive support from domestic data and the commodity market - in particular, the cost of iron ore continues to stay above $100 per ton.
In general, the initial optimism of traders was replaced by concern and uncertainty that another attempt to find a compromise will be crowned with success. Similar doubts from investors have background pressure on the US dollar. To one degree or another, this also affects the US currency's postions in dollar pairs. Weak macroeconomic reports in the US only exacerbate the position of the greenback. The slowdown is demonstrated by both key and secondary economic indicators.
Experts have previously warned that the service sector will begin to slow down after the manufacturing sector, and now, apparently, these predictions are beginning to materialize. By the way, the indicator of production orders published today came out at the lowest values since the summer of 2016. The indicator is actively decreasing for the second consecutive month, and the May indicator was revised downward (-1.2% instead of the previous -0.8%). This fundamental picture does not allow the dollar to develop to feel comfortable, even with continued demand. And together with the Australian dollar, the greenback is losing its position at the expense of the aussie's "independent" growth.
Thus, despite the RBA's dovish position, AUD/USD buyers use the market's current situation to their advantage. Uncertain positions of the US currency against the background of a substantial growth in the commodity market makes it possible for the aussie to open new price horizons. The first resistance level is the mark 0.7060 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. When it is overcome, the Ichimoku trend indicator will form a bullish "Parade of lines" signal, which will open the way for AUD/USD bulls to the next resistance level of 0.7180 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator is already on the weekly chart). Support is the aussie's key for a 0.7000 mark.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
EUR/USD. 5th of July. Results of the day. NonFarm Payrolls - the killer of European currencies
4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 42p - 90p - 47p - 44p - 22p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 49p (51p).
The last trading day of the current week has passed with the US currency having full advantage. There was only one reason for this - the publication of the NonFarm Payrolls report for June. Analysts' forecasts predicted 162,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector, but in reality there were 224,000. Such a strong excess of the real value over the forecast naturally provoked strong purchases of the US dollar and so the US currency rose by 60 points against the euro. Against the background of strong NonFarms, traders ignored unemployment in the United States, which rose to 3.7%, as well as weaker wage growth than originally estimated. However, the key question for the entire currency market now is: do strong NonFarm mean the end of a period of failed macroeconomic statistics in the US or is it just an accident? As we all see, the US dollar has almost completely offset all losses against the European currency, which suffered during the month when reports from the United States could not please even the most ardent optimists. Only 120 points are left to reach the year lows and such a resurrection of the US dollar occurred, by and large, without particularly strong support from the foundation. Now a new question arises: if the macroeconomic statistics ceases to disappoint, the Fed may not soften the monetary policy in 2019, respectively, the main advantage of the euro, which bulls of the euro/dollar pair could plummet into oblivion. What should the euro count on in this case? There is no answer to this question yet, but we state the fact: the US dollar is very close to "returning to the game" and in the near future it will be possible to state the resumption of a downward trend.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now again recommended to sell the euro with the target of 1.1177. At the beginning of the new trading week, new levels of support and resistance will be formed.
It is recommended that you buy the euro/dollar pair not earlier than when prices have consolidated above the Kijun-sen line. However, this will require a strong fundamental basis for the bulls.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator: Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines. MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/07/2019:
Technical Market Overview:
The GBP/USD pair has broken through the technical support at the levels of 1.2559, 1.2529 and 1.2505 on its way down to the new swing low made at the level of 1.2476. As we can see the price is now out of the descending channel, which is a very bearish sign. There is a Pin Bar made at the new swing low at the level of 1.2476, but so far there is not much bullish pressure on the market and the bears are still in full control of the market. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2559 and it might be tested soon due to the oversold market conditions.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2853
WR2 - 1.2772
WR1 - 1.2630
Weekly Pivot - 1.2551
WS1 - 1.2402
WS2 - 1.2319
WS3 - 1.2180
Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2431 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 22, 2019
USD / JPY pair
The technical picture of our last review (July 18) was fully realized. The price worked out the range 107.35 / 87 indicated with a gray rectangle on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the same scale has once again touched the generator line of convergence. This creates a double convergence, after which it returned above the signal level 107.87.
On the daily chart, the departure of the signal line is under the border with the territory of decline. Also, according to our forecast, it turned out to be false. At the moment, Marlin's daily is already in the growth zone. The price is higher than the indicator line of balance, which indicates a shift in the price balance to the upside over the past 90 days based on the calculations by the indicator. Its immediate goal is the area of the MACD line and the price channel line of 108.70. The price yield above the resistance opens up the prospect of growth to the upper line of the channel at 109.70.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Forecast for AUD / USD pair on July 23, 2019
AUD / USD pair
The Australian dollar is falling for the third day. we decided to update the price channels: the dark blue channel of the daily scale chart and the red channel of weekly. The convergence of the daily timeframe proved to be effective and the Marlin oscillator signal line clearly intends to move to the zone of decline. The immediate goal of the "Australian" is 0.6945, which averaged estimate of support for the price channel line and the MACD indicator line.
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line after convergence is already in the zone of decline. The price went below the balance line and MACD this morning. We are waiting for the price in the area of the specified goal at 0.6945.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Control zones AUDUSD 07.25.19
Today's trading plan should take into account the approach of the pair to the average value of the weekly move. Sellers need to close a short position and expect a corrective pullback. The test of the average move can allow to obtain favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument in the case of the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern of yesterday's minimum.
The probability of closing trades within the average move is 70%, so sales near the zone are not profitable. It is necessary to take into account that the descending model remains a priority, as the weekly CZ of 0.6946-0.6933 has not yet been reached. An alternative model will be to go beyond the average weekly turn for the test of the specified zone. This will allow to get favorable prices for the purchase of a tool, since the probability of returning to the middle course is 90%.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Control zones for Bitcoin on 07/30/19
Yesterday, Bitcoin has dropped to $ 9000. This allowed us to re-test the monthly minimum. The response to the test was an increase in demand. This makes it possible to indicate that there are limit buyers within the monthly minimum. While levels from 9000 and above are saturated with buyers, a further decrease remains unlikely. Thus, the likelihood of continued movement within the medium-term flat increases.
It is also important to note that Bitcoin went beyond the monthly control zone. This makes it possible to search for purchases in the direction of return, since the probability of return is 90%.
When building a trading plan, it is important to note that throughout the past week, the pair has been trading below the level of balance. Today, the situation is similar, so the movement towards yesterday's high will be decisive. If the price is kept below the balance, the probability of updating the monthly minimum will be more than 50%. To break the downward impulse, it will be necessary to consolidate above the balance mark
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
EUR/USD. Useless Nonfarms: Trump made traders turn away from macroeconomic reports
Data on the growth of the US labor market could not support the dollar, which rather unexpectedly came under pressure from an external fundamental background. Another escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has mixed all the cards with dollar bulls. After all, at the end of the July Fed meeting, traders had the confidence that the regulator would limit itself to one round of rate cuts, as a precautionary measure. However, after the release of an extremely weak ISM index in the manufacturing sector, as well as after a resonant statement by Donald Trump, concerns about the Fed's next steps returned to the market.
The market clearly focused on geopolitical events, as it completely ignored one of the key macroeconomic indicators, Nonfarms. Although this release was supposed to support a further rally in the US currency: the US labor market continues to recover, demonstrating the growth of the main components. Thus, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by 164,000 (which fully coincided with the forecast), while the unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.7%. The number of people employed in the manufacturing sector of the economy increased by 16 thousand (a positive trend for the 2nd month in a row). The growth rate of the average hourly wage also pleased investors: in annual terms, the indicator rose to 3.2% (for the first time since April), and in monthly terms, the component rose to 0.3% (at this level, the indicator goes for the third month in a row). Thus, the July data completely offset concerns about the dynamics of growth in the US labor market, although this issue was on the agenda this spring, both among investors and members of the US regulator.
It is likely that after the release of Friday's data, EUR/USD bears would try to enter the ninth figure area or at least try to test a strong support level of 1.0980 (lower Kumo cloud boundary on the monthly chart) - but an unexpected move by the US president ruined the plans of the dollar bulls. When trading was about to close, the pair approached the first resistance level of 1.1120 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), and if the growth of anti-risk sentiment continues, then the bulls will be able to develop further correction - up to the levels of 1.1190 and 1.1220 (middle line BB and Kijun-sen line on D1).
Here it is worth noting that on Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has already accused Donald Trump of violating the June agreement with Xi Jinping, promising to use "countermeasures". It is likely that this week we will find out what measures we are talking about. Strengthening the US-China conflict will put pressure on the dollar, since the escalation of trade war is seen by the market through the prism of prospects for further easing of the Fed's monetary policy.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Forecast for GBP/USD on August 13, 2019
GBP/USD
On Monday, the pound sterling slightly adjusted the top from strong technical support of the range of 1.1986-1.2032, corresponding to the lows of January 2017 and October 2016, and coinciding with the Fibonacci levels of the daily chart of 271.0% and 261.8%.
Convergence on the Marlin oscillator formed on the daily chart. Whether this pattern turns out to be a sign of a deeper correction, to the Fibonacci levels of 238.2%, at the price of 1.2154 or 223.6% at the price of 1.2230, or will it turn out to be a false signal and the price will consolidate at 1.1986, it will become clear either today after the release of data on employment in the UK or tomorrow, with the release of inflation indicators. According to today's data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, applications for unemployment benefits in July may be slightly less than in the previous month - 32.0 thousand against 38.0 thousand. Inflation forecasts on Wednesday are negative, in particular CPI may drop from 2.0% y/y to 1.9% y/y.
On the four-hour chart, the price is steadily falling below the blue MACD indicator line, while the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. The current situation is neutral, we are waiting for the development of events.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Control zones Bitcoin 08/19/19
Bitcoin is trading above the balance level for the second day. This became possible after stopping the fall during the test of monthly control zone in August. The middle course zone was also tested at the end of last week. The likelihood of an increase in the value of bitcoin increases. You should not expect a sharp increase in the price, however, while the balance marks are below the course, you should keep the purchases open at the end of last week. Sales can be closed completely, since the probability of falling below the level of $10,000 in August is 30%.
Favorable price for the purchase of the instrument will be at any level below $10,000. The first growth goal can be considered at the $10,749 mark. When bitcoin reaches this level, a partial consolidation of purchases and the transfer of the rest to breakeven will be required.
An alternative model has a probability of implementation below 30%, which does not make it possible to enter sales. The instrument is trading near the monthly control zone. This makes a further decline unlikely. If the decline occurs below $10,000, then the probability of a return to this mark in August will be at 70%, and in case of exit and closing of the month's trading below this level, the probability will increase to 90%.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Control zones GBPUSD 08/20/19
Today's plan is to bring purchases previously opened to WCZ 1/2 1.2199-1.2182. When testing the zone, consolidating part of the position will be required, and the rest should be brought to breakeven. The main pattern for entering the position will be the "false breakdown" of yesterday's high after the WCZ 1/2 test. If this happens, you must completely eliminate the purchase and enter a short position. The potential fall can reach a monthly low.
Work in the upward direction is still a priority. Until WCZ 1/2 has been tested, another entry into purchases is possible in case of a "false breakdown" of yesterday's low. If this happens, there will be an opportunity to enter with a favorable risk to profit ratio.
An alternative model will be developed if the pair overcomes the WCZ 1/2, and the closure of today's US session occurs above the zone. This will indicate the completion of the downward medium-term cycle and the transition to the phase of the upward impulse.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
GBP/USD. Light at the end of the tunnel: Merkel provoked the growth of the British currency
The pound paired with the dollar today updated three-week highs, reaching the middle of the 22nd figure. The fundamental picture of today did not portend such price leaps: the European voyage of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was more of a formal nature, and Thursday's economic calendar for the GBP/USD pair is completely empty. Nevertheless, bulls of the pair found a reason for the upward impulse - and this reason was provided to them by none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the pound is now growing more on emotions - traders of the pair have been trading in constant fear and pessimism about the Brexit prospects for too long. Therefore, when among the gloomy news background a ghostly, but still "light at the end of the tunnel" had appeared, the pound's reaction was not long in coming. Moreover, at the beginning of today the head of the German government met her colleague from Britain with rather harsh rhetoric. She stated that "Britain has 30 days to resolve the Brexit issue to find an alternative to backstop." French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, noted that there is no more time for additional negotiations on a new agreement - the parties need to build on the main positions of the agreements already reached. Boris Johnson, in his peculiar manner, "accepted the challenge" of Berlin and said that he would spend 30 days allotted to him to convince the EU that there was a viable alternative to the "back-up" mechanism.
Obviously, both London and Brussels are well aware of the risks they face. That is why the current (albeit symbolic) step of Merkel allowed the pound to demonstrate a significant correction throughout the market, including paired with the dollar. However, long positions on the GBP/USD pair currently look risky - after all, we must not forget that the parties only promised to "consider various options". And it is far from a fact that the proposed options will ultimately be agreed/approved by Johnson, the European Union and, ultimately, by the deputies of the House of Commons. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the spring of nervousness will continue to contract to a certain limit, putting pressure on the foot. But if the parties still find a compromise and the likelihood of a deal will increase again, this "spring" will fire an impulsive price increase, and marks 1.25-1.27 will not be any limit.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut
Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.
In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, of Powell's reluctance to take and reduce the rate immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later, there was a loud statement that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies having production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
TForecast for GBP / USD pair on August 28, 2019
GBP / USD pair
Yesterday, the growth of the pound negates the fall of Monday. However, on the daily chart, it met insurmountable resistance of the indicator line of the balance line (red), which is currently slightly below the indicator line of the MACD trend line (blue).
A double divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal signal of the Marlin oscillator has amplified while the market is still "hot". The signal line of the oscillator is still in the growth zone and in fact, the price is higher than all indicator lines. On the daily chart, the price can gather strength and go on the assault to the second target of 1.2350/81. To fix the primary reversal signals, it is necessary to fix the price below the minimum of yesterday, which will also correspond to the price drift under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The MACD line of four-hour scale also tends to be at this level. Probably, a key level is being formed here. In case of a breakout, you should wait before sales.
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Britain on the verge of a constitutional crisis
The pound fell sharply by 100 points on the news that Boris Johnson could try to interrupt parliament for a month - from September 11 to October 14 - so that Parliament could not stop Johnson from withdrawing Britain out of the EU without an agreement.
This is a constitutional crisis. The queen has such a right to suspend the work of the parliament, at the proposal of the prime minister. However, such an action on this occasion is a clear crisis. Given the minimal majority of conservatives in parliament - it is very likely - to have a political crisis and new elections.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19
The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.
The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans. To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019
Technical Market Overview:
The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1285
WR2 - 1.1224
WR1 - 1.1084
Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025
WS1 - 1.0886
WS2 - 1.0818
WS3 - 1.0681
Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Golden cosmos
Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.
The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.
On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.
I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.
The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.
Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.
I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!
News are provided by InstaForex
Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019
AUD / USD pair
In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.
For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2019
EUR/USD
On Friday and this Monday morning, the euro lingered on the resistance of the balance line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the daily scale. The euro is still calm about the price growth of oil and gold this morning due to an attack by drones on oil rigs in Saudi Arabia. Oil has jumped 9.56% since the opening of the session. According to media reports, oil production in this country fell by 50%, which seems unlikely. Nevertheless, an impetus has been set, and with the increase in oil prices, the euro is likely to continue to grow, the target of which will be the area where the line of the price channel, the Fibonacci level is 110.0% and the MACD line at the price of 1.1152.
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On a four-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance line (indicator red), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. In the framework of the main increasing scenario, the euro may drop, but not lower than the support of the MACD line on H4 (1.1023). Leaving below opens an alternative scenario with the prospect of a decline to 1.0926.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
GBP/USD: the pound still hopes that the fog around Brexit will clear up
Over the past week, the pound has strengthened against the US dollar by almost 1.2% amid expectations that London and Brussels may soften their position on Brexit.
On Sunday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, said that he was still focused on concluding a deal with the European Union under the terms of the country's withdrawal from the bloc.
"If we can make enough progress over the next few days, I intend to go to the EU summit on October 17 and conclude an agreement that will protect the interests of business and citizens both on both sides of the English channel and on both sides of the border in Ireland. I believe that we can do this, and I believe that such an agreement meets the interests of not only the UK, but also our European partners," said B. Johnson.
At the same time, he continues to insist that he will not ask the EU to provide another delay for Brexit.
In turn, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that there are no reasons for optimism about Brexit.
"The UK has not provided any alternative proposals on the Irish border for a month and a half of the functioning of the new government and half a year from the moment when the bill, agreed with the 27 EU members, entered the British Parliament, but was never ratified by it. In the coming weeks, we should see whether the government of B. Johnson is able to make any proposals that have legal force," M. Barnier said.
Recall that in Britain the law adopted by the country's Parliament came into force, according to which the government is obliged to ask the EU for a new deferral of Brexit if London and Brussels do not agree on a new agreement on withdrawal by October 19.
B. Johnson intends to ignore the new law and is ready to fight for it in the British courts.
Today, the British Prime Minister met with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg.
"The leaders agreed on the need to negotiate more intensively on Brexit and start holding daily meetings of representatives of the parties. An agreement was also reached on political negotiations between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay. The dialogue between president Juncker and Prime Minister Johnson will also continue," the office of the head of the British government said in a statement.
It is assumed that if the parties manage to reach a compromise, then the GBP/USD pair may well rise to the level of 1.2700.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
Oil flies into the stratosphere
Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?
An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.
One-day oil jumps
According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.
At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.
Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex