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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 31, 2018
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Prelim Flash GDP q/q, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too such as CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1765.
Strong Resistance:1.1758.
Original Resistance: 1.1757.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1736.
Target Inner Area: 1.1708. Inner
Buy Area: 1.1680.
Original Support: 1.1669.
Strong Support: 1.1658.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1651.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 1, 2018
EUR/NZD tried to break above short-term important resistance at 1.7205 but failed. We think it is just a matter of time before a new attempt to break above this resistance is seen. A firm break above resistance at 1.7205, will confirm that red wave ii has completed and that red wave iii towards 1.7510 and above is developing.
Short-term, support remains seen at 1.7134 and 1.7116. The later should continue to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7205. An unexpected break below 1.7116, will indicate that black wave ii/ still is in motion for a spike lower to 1.7066 before turning higher in black wave iii/.
R3: 1.7268
R2: 1.7207
R1: 1.7185
Pivot: 1.7165
S1: 1.7137
S2: 1.7116
S3: 1.7106
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.7205 and use the same stop at 1.7110.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 6, 2018
EUR/JPY has moved just below the lower boundary at 128.66 (the low has been seen at 158.49). This does fulfill all requirements for our slightly preferred scenario, meaning that a low should be in place for wave ii/ and a new impulsive rally in wave iii/ should be ready to develop. Wave iii/ will ideally make it to 135.74 and possibly even higher.
That said, we need to remember that prices need to prove themselves for a strong rally above 129.62. The possible alternate scenario still remains possible. Under this count, wave ii still is developing as an expanded flat correction. If this count is correct, then we should expect resistance near 129.62 will cap the upside for a final decline towards 126.01 to complete wave ii before wave iii will be ready to take over.
R3: 129.62
R2: 129.18
R1: 129.00
Pivot: 128.77
S1: 128.50
S2: 128.11
S3: 127.69
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 128.50 was hit for a 45 pips loss. We will re-buy EUR here at 128.72 and place our stop at 128.45.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 8, 2018
EUR/NZD is once again testing important resistance at 1.7224, but we need a clear break above here to confirm that the next impulsive rally towards 1.7510 is in motion. As long as resistance at 1.7224 is able to cap the upside as long does the possibility for a final drop into the 1.7033 - 1.7066 area exist, before completing wave ii/.
Longer-term, we remain bullish EUR/NZD for a rally towards 1.8310 and ultimately higher towards 1.98 - 1.99 area.
R3: 1.7305
R2: 1.7251
R1: 1.7224
Pivot: 1.7187
S1: 1.7150
S2: 1.7115
S2: 1.7094
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 10, 2018
After some sideways consolidation between 1.7352 - 1.7448 more upside will be expected towards the next minor upside targets at 1.7924 on the way higher towards 1.8369 and 1.8423.
Support is now seen at 1.7404 and again at 1.7352. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for a clear break above 1.7480 confirming the next part of the uptrend towards 1.7924.
Only a break below support at 1.7301 will question the expected rally higher.
R3: 1.7667
R2: 1.7564
R1: 1.7480
Pivot: 1.7437
S1: 1.7404
S2: 1.7388
S3: 1.7352
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7226 and we will raise our stop to 1.7275.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 13, 2018
When the European market opens, there will be no Economic Data released, but the US will release the Economic Data such as Mortgage Delinquencies, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1451.
Strong Resistance:1.1444.
Original Resistance: 1.1433.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1422.
Target Inner Area: 1.1395.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1368.
Original Support: 1.1357.
Strong Support: 1.1346.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1339.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14, 2018
We are looking for red wave ii to complete in the 1.7196 - 1.7258 target-zone. Once this correction is complete a new impulsive rally to above 1.7487 is expected for a continuation higher to 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next upside important upside targets. Short-term only a break above minor resistance at 1.7356 will indicate that a corrective low has been seen for red wave ii and red wave iii is taking over for a rally to above 1.7487.
R3: 1.7487
R2: 1.7417
R1: 1.7355
Pivot: 1.7322
S1: 1.7258
S2: 1.7226
S3: 1.7196
Trading recommendation:
We will re-buy EUR at 1.7245 or upon a break above 1.7356.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 15, 2018
After a dip to 1.7220 all requirements for the correction in red wave i has been fulfilled. Therefore we are looking for a break above resistance at 1.7355 to confirm that red wave iii is developing for a break above the peak at 1.7484 as EUR/NZD moves higher towards 1.7924 and 1.8369.
Short-term support is seen at 1.7243, this support should ideally be able to protect the downside, for the expected rally higher. If, however, a break below 1.7243 is seen, a final dip closer to 1.7196 should be expected to complete red wave ii.
R3: 1.7487
R2: 1.7417
R1: 1.7355
Pivot: 1.7299
S1: 1.7270
S2: 1.7243
S3: 1.7220
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 16, 2018
A break above resistance at 1.7355 is still needed to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii to above 1.7484 is developing.
Short-term, we see support at 1.7262 and again at 1.7238. The later will ideally be able to protect the downside for the break above 1.7355 towards 1.7484 and above, with the next important targets seen at 1.7924 and 1.8369.
R3: 1.7484
R2: 1.7417
R1: 1.7355
Pivot: 1.7299
S1: 1.7270
S2: 1.7243
S3: 1.7220
Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 20, 2018
Nothing happening here. The range-trading between 1.7220 and 1.7310 continues to dominate the picture. We continue to look for a break above resistance at 1.7310 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7355 that confirms red wave ii has completed and red wave iii has taken over for the next impulsive rally towards 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next larger upside targets.
R3: 1.7484
R2: 1.7417
R1: 1.7355
Pivot: 1.7310
S1: 1.7270
S2: 1.7243
S3: 1.7220
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 22, 2018
EUR/NZD once again failed to break above important short-term resistance at 1.7355 and instead turned around to make a small new low at 1.7211. This is a disappointment and keeps red wave ii alive, but it does not change our larger bullish count calling for more upside pressure above 1.7484 longer-term. To confirm that red wave ii has completed, we still need a break above resistance at 1.7355 and as long as this short-term important resistance remains able to cap the upside, red wave ii could dip closer to 1.7196, but the potential downside should be limited to here for a break above minor resistance at 1.7327 and more importantly a break above 1.7355 confirming red wave iii is developing for a rally above 1.7484.
R3: 1.7355
R2: 1.7327
R1: 1.7275
Pivot: 1.7255
S1: 1.7221
S2: 1.7196
S3: 1.7162
Trading recommendation:
Ous stop was hit for a small loss of 20 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 1.7205 or upon a break above 1.7327 and place our stop at 1.7200.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 23, 2018
EUR/JPY still has not broken important short-term resistance at 128.48, but then it has not started to move strongly lower as we normally should expect at the completion of an expanded flat.
Therefore we are shifting our preferred count in favor of wave C and II having completed with the test of 124.86 and wave III now in its infancy. Under this count EUR/JPY should make a small downward correction towards 127.23 - 127.33 area in red wave iv and then move higher towards the 128.92 - 129.32 area in red wave v.
This will complete black wave i/ and should set the stage for a corrective decline in wave ii/ towards the 125.76 - 126.44 area before the next impulsive rally higher. That said, the possibility of a final dip closer to 124.62 remains possible, but time is running out fast.
R3: 128.92
R2: 128.48
R1: 128.24
Pivot: 127.93
S1: 127.72
S2: 127.50
S3: 127.33
Trading recommendation:
We are 50% long EUR from 126.26 with our stop placed at 126.84. We will take pro
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 24, 2018
EUR/NZD has finally broken above short-term important resistance at 1.7355. This former resistance should now act as support if a re-test is needed.
The break above resistance at 1.7355 should have paved the way for a continuation higher towards 1.7484 on the way towards 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next important upside targets. EUR/NZD is now in a position where it could start accelerate quiet powerfully higher, but we think a clear break above 1.7484 will be needed to see the expected upside acceleration.
R3: 1.7668
R2: 1.7578
R1: 1.7484
Pivot: 1.7366
S1: 1.7355
S2: 1.7325
S3: 1.7281
Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 1.7330 and we have placed our stop at 1.7275.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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GBP/USD. Trading system "Regression channels". The growth of the pound sterling may be temporary
4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
Higher channel of linear regression: direction - down.
The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.
The moving average (20; flattened) is up.
CCI: 159.4805
Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair showed impressive growth, after Michel Barnier, the main negotiator for Brexit from the EU, announced the forthcoming special offer for London. But according to the European Union, he did not mentioned the proposal's essence and how it will be resolved all disagreements with Britain. However, the markets reacted with strong purchases of the British pound. We believe that this market reaction is short-term and impulsive. So far, even the essence of the proposal is unclear. It is likely that Theresa May will not agree with this proposal, but almost nobody doubts that the negotiations will drag on beyond October. Thus, the pound sterling will remain under market pressure, and even Trump's desire to weaken the dollar may not prevent further strengthening of the pound/dollar, while with other currencies paired with the dollar may decline. The data on personal income adjustments and expenditure of the population in the United States will be publish today. Possibly, this data can affect the traders' mood but the most important agenda for today is about global topics, so these reports are unlikely have a significant effect to the trading course. From a technical point of view, a correction is brewing, as there was a very strong growth yesterday, and the last bar is painted in blue today.
Nearest support levels:
S1 = 1.2939
S2 = 1.2817
S3 - 1.2695
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 = 1.3062
R2 = 1.3184
R3 = 1.3306
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair may start to adjust. Correction can be worked out (if a second blue bar is formed in a row), since the descending sentiment of the pair remains. The target for short positions is the moving average line in small lots.
Buy-positions are recommended to resume in case of a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator above or overcoming the 1.3062 level. The next target for the bulls will be the Murray level of 1.3184.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.
The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.
CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.
Murray Levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 3, 2018
EUR/JPY has declined nicely and is now hovering just below our 128.78 - 129.00 target zone. We are looking for a recovery towards 129.85 next and from there it will be decided, whether more corrective downside pressure is needed or not.
In the short-term, a break above resistance at 129.14 will confirm the expected rally towards 129.85 and maybe even a continuation towards 130.87 and beyond.
If support at 128.54 gives away first, then a minor dip to support at 128.30 should be expected before a recovery is seen, but the potential downside should be limited for now.
R3: 129.85
R2: 129.32
R1: 129.14
Pivot: 128.83
S1: 128.54
S2: 128.30
S3: 127.94
Trading recommendation:
We took profit on our short position at 129.10 for a nice little profit of 58 pips and at the same time bought EUR. We have placed our stop at 128.10.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Pound: we only dream of peace
Political risks throw the British pound into the heat, then in the cold. The statement of the chief negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier that Brussels is ready to offer London an unprecedented deal, allowed quotes of the GBP/USD to soar above the psychologically important mark of 1.3. Alas, a few hours later Barnier declared a categorical disagreement with Theresa May's plan. At the same time, former Brexit Secretary David Davis said that he would vote against the Prime Minister's program, which involves significantly worse conditions than there were.
Theresa May will have a daunting task - first to find a compromise within the country, and then to reach an agreement with the EU. The situation is aggravated by the Congress of the Conservative party in September. And if in June the prime minister managed to maintain her leadership, now she will have to undergo a new test. As a result of the aggravation of political risks, the volatility of the sterling may come out of the trading range and go up, which will negatively affect the positions of the bulls on the GBP/USD. Britain has the highest ratio of the negative current account to GDP in the G20 countries, its financing requires an inflow of investments, and it is difficult to lure non-residents to the local market in conditions of increased volatility of the pound.
The dynamics of the volatility of the pound
The pressure on sterling is exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in August was marked by the worst dynamics in the last two years. Export orders fell below the critical level of 50 for the first time since April 2016. As Bloomberg research shows, British companies preferred to save money instead of taking advantage of the devaluation and increase investment. Now, in the face of fears about the slowdown of the world economy, the decline in external demand creates serious problems for them.
It should be recognized that the fall of the GBP/USD contributed to the gradual recovery of the US dollar. Difficulties in negotiations between the United States and Canada lead investors to the idea that the settlement of the dispute between Washington and Beijing may take even longer, and the truce between the US and the EU will end very soon. As a result, the risks of escalation of trade conflicts have increased, which provides support to the US dollar.
News are provided by InstaForex
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Gold wings have been clipped
August turned out to be the fifth consecutive month of gold closing in the red zone. The precious metal lost more than 2% amid the acceleration of the US economy, increasing the chances of four acts of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve in 2018 and tensions over trade wars. And only moderately - "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell in Jackson hole allowed the "bulls" to lick some of its wounds and try to break above $1210 per ounce. Alas, the joy of buyers was short-lived. In early September, the dollar began to recover in the face of problems in the negotiations between the United States and Canada and Donald Trump's intentions to expand the size of import duties against China by $200 billion.
The dynamics of gold
According to Citigroup Global Markets, investors do not need the gold in a world where stocks and bond yields are rising. The precious metal does not bring dividends and interest as equity and debt securities, and its status as a safe-haven asset has been taken away by the US dollar. As a result, speculators are increasing net short positions on the precious metal for the fifth week in a row and brought them to record highs. The stocks of the largest specialized fund SPDR Gold Shares fell to its lowest levels since November. From the levels of April highs, the index has lost 14%.
However, everything in this world is relative. Silver feels much worse than gold, the loss of which is about 16% since the beginning of the year. Due to the high proportion of industrial use in aggregate demand, this metal is more vulnerable to a slowdown in the global economy than the sector leader. As a result, their ratio has soared to the highest levels since the global financial crisis.
Dynamics of the ratio of gold and silver
Further dynamics of the XAU/USD will entirely depend on the US dollar, whose position looks strong. First, the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicts that US GDP in the third quarter will accelerate to 4.6%. Secondly, the futures market estimates the probability of four Federal funds rate increases in 2018 at 75%. A month ago, the figure was only slightly higher than 60%. Third, Trump is about to expand the size of import tariffs against China, which will increase the risks of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and put pressure on the markets of developing countries.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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EUR/JPY Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce
EUR/JPY is approaching its support at 127.94 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where the price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 129.69 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2% where a corresponding bounce is expected.
EUR/JPY is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce.
Buy above 127.94. Stop loss at 127.01. Take profit at 129.69.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 10, 2018
We continue to look for more upside pressure towards the next sub-target at 1.7820. Longer term resistance at 1.7820 only should prove to be a temporary cap as more upside towards strong resistance at 1.8369 remains expected.
Support is now seen at 1.7683 and again at 1.7638 only a break below the later, we confirm more sideways consolidation, and a dip to 1.7605 before the next strong push higher.
R3: 1.7820
R2: 1.7750
R1: 1.7734
Pivot: 1,7701
S1: 1.7683
S2: 1.7638
S3: 1.7605
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 with our stop placed at 1.7565, Upon a break above 1.7734 we will move our stop higher to 1.7595.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 11, 2018
EUR/NZD keeps making headway towards the sub-target at 1.7820. Ideally, this resistance will only make a temporary top for the next swing higher towards the more important resistance at 1.8369.
Support is now seen at 1.7668 and if a break below here is seen, then a corrective decline closer to support at 1.7605 could be seen, but it should be short-lived as the steady uptrend continues higher towards 1.8369. R3: 1.8016
R2: 1.7919
R1: 1.7820
Pivot: 1.7738
S1: 1.7701
S2: 1.7668
S3: 1.7605
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7660.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 12, 2018
The 1.7820 targets have now been tested. The question is whether this was the top of red wave iii and a correction in red wave iv is needed now? We have seen a quite massive negative divergence being build in the run higher to 1.7820, so it should come as no surprise if a minor correction in red wave iv is about to begin. A break below 1.7738 will indicate this is the case.
That said, the rally to 1.7820 only represents the minimum extension target of red wave i. Therefore, we have to be equally ready for this extension to continue towards the next extension targets at 1.7954 (the 200% extension of red wave i) or even higher to the 261.8% extension target of red wave i at 1.8184.
R3: 1.7954
R2: 1.7900
R1: 1.7825 Pivot: 1.7738
S1: 1.7678
S2: 1.7629
S3: 1.7590
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7730.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 13, 2018
The recent bearish movement of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800
The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the depicted downtrend line which comes to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.
This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels where evident bearish rejection should be anticipated.
As long as sings of bearish rejection are demonstrated below 1.3020 (50% Fibo level), the short-term outlook remains bearish towards 1.2840 and 1.2780.
On the other hand, successful bullish breakout above 1.3090 will probably hinder the current bearish movement allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 24, 2018
EUR/NZD should stay above the peak of red wave i at 1.7488 for the next impulsive rally towards 1.8031. If an unexpected break below 1.7488 is seen, the we will have to make a recount of the rally from 1.6534 and count the rally as a series of waves ones and twos. This is not our preferred count, but it remains a possibility as long as re stay below 1.7783. A break above here will confirm that the next impulsive rally is developing higher towards 1.8030 and longer term closer to 1.8369.
R3: 1.7711
R2: 1.7680
R1: 1.7650
Pivot: 1,7620
S1: 1.7586
S2: 1.7539
S3: 1.7488
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7615 with our stop placed at 1.7515. If you are not long EUR yet, the wait and buy a break above 1.7680 and start by using a stop, just below the most recent low.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 28, 2018
The daily trading range is getting smaller and smaller, indicating that energy is building for the next larger move towards the upside. A break above minor resistance at 1.7685 will be the first good indication, that the next impulsive rally towards 1.8030 is developing, while a break above resistance at 1.7732 will confirm this rally is well underway. Support at 1.7580 should continue to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7685 and above.
R3: 1.7823
R2: 1.7783
R1: 1.7732
Pivot: 1.7685
S1: 1.7651
S2: 1.7626
S3: 1.7580
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7615 with our stop placed at 1.7515. Upon a break above 1.7732 we will move our stop higher to 1.7575. We will take profit on half our position at 1.8000.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Trump won an important victory - concluded a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico
At the last moment, one day before the expiration of the NAFTA agreement, the representatives of the USA and Canada managed to reach an agreement. A new trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada was formed - the USMCA agreement (by the names of the participating countries).
Trump managed to get from Canada concessions on access to the Canadian dairy market for US farmers, as well as, for car manufacturers and on the protection of intellectual property.
This is a very important success for Trump - before the by-election to Congress in November, against the backdrop of the extremely tough US-China trade war unleashed by Trump. Just a week ago, the United States introduced duties for 200 billion dollars of goods from China in response to 60 billion dollars of goods from the United States.
Trump is critical that Republicans win in November and retain a majority in the lower house of Congress. Otherwise, Trump will become a "lame duck" two years before the US presidential election and the mood of voters is determined by the economy.
The US-Canada-Mexico market is huge, amounting to $ 1 trillion of Import-exports per year.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 8, 2018
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ba_source!.png
There was no time for a correction and EUR/NZD is moving directly higher towards the next target at 1.8030. Support is now seen at 1.7800 and again at 1.7758, only a break below the later support will indicate a deeper correction towards 1.7643 unfolding, before the next advance towards the 1.8369 target.
R3: 1.8100
R2: 1.8030
R1: 1.7900
Pivot: 1.7800
S1: 1 7758
S2: 1.7692
S3: 1.7642
Trading recommendation:
We are long half a position from 1.7500 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7725.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 11, 2018
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...09_source!.png
The break above resistance at 1.7847 told us that the corrective decline from 1.7929 had completed prematurely and a new impulsive rally towards 1.8030 and 1.8369 should be unfolding.
Despite our expectation of a new impulsive rally towards 1.8030, we should be aware of the possibility of a more complex correction unfolding, but the minimum upside target should be 1.7929 if a larger flat correction is in the making.
R3: 1.8030
R2: 1.7960
R1: 1.7929
Pivot: 1.7882
S1: 1.7835
S2: 1.7800
S3: 1.7774
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7847 and we will place our stop at 1.7780. Upon a break above 1.7882 will will move our stop to break-even at 1.7847.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October, 2018
EUR/JPY has seen a low at 129.12 and we are now looking for a break above minor resistance at 129.80 and more importantly a break above short-term important resistance at 130.51. It will confirm that blue wave (2) has completed and blue wave (3) towards 138.10 is developing.
Support is now seen at 129.34 and then at 129.12.
R3: 130.85
R2: 130.51
R1: 130.05
Pivot: 129.80
S1: 129.34
S2: 129.12
S3: 128.99
Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 129.10 or upon a break above 129.80.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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GBP/USD. October 15th. Results of the day. The fate of the pound may be decided at the summit on October 17-18
4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 105 p-117 p-79 p-66 p-111 p.
Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 96 PT (97 p). The British pound opened today with a large "gap" down, but managed to close it during the day.
In principle, the technical picture of the last two days for EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs is the same. The only difference is that the pound is more volatile. At the moment, the price has consolidated back above the Kijun-sen line, which may mean the completion of a deep correction and the resumption of an uptrend. However, the MACD indicator is still pointing down (!!!), which is due to the formation of a "gap" at the opening of the market. Thus, the indicator readings are simply incorrect now. As for the fundamental component, in addition to the report on retail sales in the US, which slightly increased the demand for the pound during the day, there is nothing to note today. Even no new rumors about Brexit has not been received. Thus, market participants are fully focused on the summit, which will be held on 17-18 October, and which is highly likely to be either signed an agreement or negotiations will fail completely. Of course, everyone, especially traders, now believe that the "deal" will be signed. But we think the odds are about 50/50. If the parties could easily concede on the Northern Ireland border, they would have done so long ago. Nobody wants to give in, and Britain needs the "deal" first. But additional concessions to the European Union will lower Theresa May's political ratings even more. Not everyone is happy with her rule and negotiations in the UK.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair seems to have completed the correction, but the breakdown of the Kijun-sen line may be false, given the nature of the next bar. Thus, now it is recommended to hurry with the opening of new longs, it is better to wait for clarification of the situation.
Sell positions are relevant as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen line. But MACD did not react to the upward correction and now can not signal its completion with a turn down.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
News are provided by InstaForex
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GBP/USD: turned away from the pound
Wednesday's trading day is marked by uncertainty. The dollar is gaining momentum ahead of the publication of the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve, and the pound and defensive instruments are waiting for the outcome of the EU summit. General nervousness plays in favor of the US currency, especially after the recovery of the US stock market. The British currency, in turn, is not only under the pressure of negative rumors about Brexit, but also due to the slowdown of inflation indicators. There was no trace of yesterday's optimism, after which the GBP/USD pair headed towards the 30th figure.
Meanwhile, there are no results of the key summit yet: only a working dinner will be held tonight, while Theresa may is holding bilateral meetings with its participants. Therefore, the main statements will be announced or closer to the night or (most likely) by tomorrow. But the pound is already getting cheaper throughout the market, as negative forecasts regarding the Brussels meeting began to prevail in the information field. For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that Germany has begun preparations for a chaotic Brexit, as the issue of the Irish border remains an insurmountable stumbling block. The head of the European Council Donald Tusk yesterday took a similar position, adding that the probability of "hard" Brexit is high as ever.
Representatives of other countries are less categorical, but most of them are wary of the upcoming negotiations. Increasingly, there are thoughts that the parties need a time gap until November, December or even January. It is difficult to say whether the rhetoric of the Europeans is a "strategic maneuver" on the eve of the main negotiations, but, apparently, the parties do not really expect any breakthrough from the October meeting.
According to a number of experts, there is an elementary "game of nerves": despite the fact that the parties planned to reach a compromise in September, the so-called "red line" is still relatively far away. Therefore, so far it is possible to exhaust each other with threats of chaotic Brexit with all the ensuing consequences. Such behavior is a risk, as after another failure in Brussels under Theresa May could once again stagger the prime minister's chair, not only in opposition to the labour, as there are many representatives of the Conservative Party who oppose her.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 22, 2018
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...16_source!.png
EUR/NZD dipped to 1.7356 (just below our possible downside target at 1.7357). We will now be looking for a break above the resistance-line near 1.7495, and more importantly, a break above the resistance at 1.7557 to confirm that the red wave ii/ has completed and the red wave iii/ towards 1.8345 is developing. Support is now seen at 1.7381 and at 1.7356.
R3: 1.7598
R2: 1.7557
R1: 1.7495
Pivot: 1.7475
S1: 1.7450
S2: 1.7409
S3: 1.7381
Trading recommendation:
We will buy a break above the resistance at 1.7495, while our stop will be placed at 1.7345.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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GBP/USD. Pound stumbled over Brexit again
The pound paired with the dollar after a slight recovery has once again collapsed into the area of the 29th figure, reacting to the negative news background around Brexit.
The immediate reason for the decline in the GBP/USD was the news that the deputies from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) together with the conservatives (or rather – some of them) will vote for the draft law that will make the EU proposals on the Irish border illegal. In this case, negotiations on Brexit are highly complicated, and the probability of a chaotic "divorce" from the EU without a deal will increase.
Let me remind you that Brussels is lobbying for the idea of leaving Northern Ireland within the framework of a single European market and a customs union – temporarily, until the parties come to a compromise on this issue. In Britain, many do not agree with this scenario – according to some conservatives, such a decision would be contrary to the constitutional principles of the country and would de facto violate its territorial integrity. Theresa May and the deputies who support her are also not happy with this idea, but are discussing this option among others. Therefore, representatives of the most "hawkish" wing of the Parliament plan to exclude such a scenario at the legislative level. Previously, only a few dozens of conservatives were discussed, but today it has become known that the Democratic Unionist Party will support this legislative initiative.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis of Gold for October 24, 2018
Gold price broke above the triangle pattern as we expected and reached $1,240. Price is now pulling back down towards the break out area. Holding above it is a bullish sign. Breaking below $1,220 would confirm the end of the upward move and the start of a new down trend.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...018112d8e3.png
Green lines - triangle pattern (broken upwards)
Black rectangle - major support
Gold price is in a bullish short-term trend. Price broke above the triangle pattern and is now trading above the break out level. Gold price could continue its move higher towards $1,250-60 as long as it does not fall below $1,220. Bulls should raise their stops to protect gains.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Gold spreads its wings
The high demand for safe-haven assets allowed gold to break a crucial inverse correlation with the US dollar. For a long time, the precious metal was in the shadow of the US currency, but the favorable geopolitical situation and the breakthrough of the upper limit of the medium-term consolidation range of $1185-1215 per ounce allowed the bulls to resist the USD index, which still feels confident. It should show the weakness of the dollar, gold immediately go up. So it was at the auction on October 23, when Donald Trump took the old and criticized the current chairman of the Federal Reserve. The president believes that Jerome Powell is experiencing bouts of happiness when he raises the Federal funds rate. An unusual approach that made financial markets smile.
Overly inflated net shorts on the precious metal, increased demand for gold as a tool to hedge the volatility of stock indices and moderately negative medium-term prospects of the "greenback" are the key drivers of growth of XAU/USD. As the midterm elections in the U.S. are approaching, the growth of political risk is able to rein in bulls in the USD index. It is likely that the Democrats will celebrate the victory in the house of representatives, which increases the risks of impeachment. This is well understood by Donald Trump, who threw the voters a bone in the form of potential tax cuts for the middle class. I don't think that's gonna be enough to save the Republicans. Uncertainty will contribute to the growth of volatility of the US stock market and will force some speculators to withdraw from the dollar. But it was the strength of the US currency that prevented gold from breathing quietly for most of the year.
Dynamics of gold and the US dollar
For a long time, precious metals turned a blind eye to trade wars, Brexit and the Italian political crisis. All these events are regarded as a positive external background for safe haven assets, which investors suddenly remembered in October. As a result, speculative demand for gold, Japanese yen and Swiss franc increased. At the same time, the inability of the analyzed asset to break the lower limit of the consolidation range of $1185-1215 per ounce was the reason for the closure of net short positions by hedge funds. They got rid of them at the fastest pace since March. However, the indicator is not far from the record highs, and its further reduction can raise the quotes of the XAU/USD higher.
Gold, daily chart
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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GBP/USD Forecast for 29 October 2018
GBP/USD
On Friday, the British pound grew by 13 points. The growth was stopped by the downward embedded line in the price channel. At the moment, the price is still testing this line with the support of the upward convergence on the chart of the lower timeframe. If the price manages to overcome this resistance, then a corrective price growth to the level of 1.2936 is possible - this is the low on October 23, and the Krusenstern line converges to this point both on the four-hour chart and on the daily chart.
The low of yesterday (1.2776) becomes the control level. Its overcoming will lead to a further decline in the price to the lower border of the channel in the area of 1.2618.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Frankly speaking, it is just not possible to succeed without analysing and that accurately. But then it is no walk in the park either, so great effort goes into this and only then it is realistically a possible thing for anyone to succeed on with.
I have my measurements easy through gold and silver price forecast 2018 follow up of experts. One should always try to go with system that’s proven and worthy, it is the way towards achieving greater results and that with ease.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 5, 2018
Since September 13, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout above the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.
On September 21, GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.
Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2970 (50% Fibo level) enhanced a further decline towards 1.2790 where the lower limit of the movement channel and 79.8% Fibonacci Level were located.
On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700. BUY entries were suggested around the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel (1.2690).
For the bullish daily breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.2790 (the depicted channel upper limit) and an early breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) are needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum.
That's why, bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2970-1.3000 (50% Fibonacci zone) is mandatory for a further rise towards 1.3130 and 1.3200.
On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.2970 (50% Fibo level) allows further decline towards 1.2790 and 1.2660.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Nov 06, 2018
In Asia, Japan will release the Household Spending y/y and the US will release some Economic Data such as 10-y Bond Auction, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and JOLTS Job Openings. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 113.88.
Resistance. 2: 113.63.
Resistance. 1: 113.43.
Support. 1: 113.16.
Support. 2: 112.94.
Support. 3: 112.72.
Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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The Fed's November meeting: waiting for hints about the December hike
After the announcement of the first results of the elections to the US Congress, the dollar was under considerable pressure, as the lower and upper houses of the legislature were divided between Democrats and Republicans. The dollar index slipped to 95.55 points, reflecting the weakening of the currency in all dollar pairs. The possible imbalance of the American political system has frightened traders - especially against the background of loud statements of Democrats concerning new investigations concerning the president, as its results could even lead to impeachment.
In other words, on the one hand, he admitted the defeat of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, but on the other hand, hinted that now the Democrats have legislative levers that should be used not for their political purposes ("digging" for the Republican President), but "for the benefit of the American people." The willingness of Trump to dialogue pleased the traders, after which the dollar regained its position - in particular, the EUR/USD pair moved away from daily highs (1,1500) and ended the trading day at 1.1425.
In particular, we are talking about the weak dynamics of consumer spending, as well as the decline in the US housing market: in September, the pace of housing construction in the US significantly decreased, and the corresponding figures fell to three-year lows in the southern states. Activity in the country's manufacturing sector also decreased: the number of new orders fell to 1-a-year lows. Thus, in October, the ISM index fell to 57.7 points, while in September this indicator came out at the level of 59.8. Strong Nonfarm, on the one hand, speak about the strengthening of the labor market, but, on the other hand, there is its own "fly in the ointment". An analysis of the Fed's recently published Beige Book suggests that there is a shortage of labor (especially skilled labor) in many regions of the country. Although this nuance is secondary, it can still be taken into account by Fed members.
Thus, the results of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve should: a) confirm the intention of the members of the regulator to raise the interest rate in December; b) outline the future prospects of monetary policy. And if the first point is indicated more or less clearly in the accompanying statement, then the outlines of the long-term prospects will have to be "deciphered" by the traders themselves on the basis of the general tone of the text.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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Intraday Level For EUR/USD for November 14, 2018
When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, Flash GDP q/q, French Final CPI m/m, and German Prelim GDP q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1361.
Strong Resistance:1.1354.
Original Resistance: 1.1343.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1332.
Target Inner Area: 1.1305.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1278.
Original Support: 1.1267.
Strong Support: 1.1256.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1249.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex