Forex News from InstaForex

Nzd/usd Skips Higher Past 0.7500 to 0.7521, in Line With Aud

0.7534 50% Fibonacci of Jan/Feb decline coupled with 0.7535 overnight top as close resistance


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Fx Vol Collapses: Rbc Capital

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The collapse of FX vol that is underway with Yellen and Greece behind us, according to RBC Capital Research. The ECB's Global Hazard Index, at 9.95, is down more than 3 vols from Friday's close and at its lowest level since early-November. With vol and spreads in other asset classes already low, this has caused our overall Risk Aversion Thermometer to fall to almost one standard deviation risk seeking (-7.3) and its lowest level since last May. This is a positive background for riskier and higher-yielding currencies

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New Zealand Jan Money Supply Rises At Slower Rate

New Zealand's money supply growth slowed in January, figures from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Friday. M3 money supply rose 6.2 percent year-on-year to NZ$283.745 billion in January. This follows a 6.3 percent rise in December. In the same month of the previous year, money supply had risen 6.5 percent. On a monthly basis, money supply growth eased to 0.2 percent in January from 1 percent in December.

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Australia Company Operating Profit Dips 0.2% In Q4

Gross operating profits for companies in Australia eased a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. That was well shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent, which would have been steady from the previous three months. On a yearly basis, profits tumbled 5.9 percent. Wages and salaries added 0.3 percent on quarter and 0.8 percent on year, the bureau said, while inventories dipped 0.8 percent on quarter and 0.5 percent on year.

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Japan Monetary Base Surges 36.7% In February

The monetary base in Japan spiked 36.7 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, coming in at 275.261 trillion yen. That follows the 37.4 percent annual surge in January. Banknotes in circulation added 3.7 percent on year, while coins in circulation added 0.8 percent. Current account balances climbed 63.6 percent, including a 64.6 percent spike in reserve balances. The adjusted monetary base climbed 43.2 percent on year to 285.688 trillion yen.

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Ecb Will Likely Revise Growth up and Inflation Down

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After the announcement of the expanded asset purchase programme (quantitative easing - 'QE') in January, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to refrain from further new measures in the near term. Thursday's post-meeting press conference will likely focus on the updated ECB staff forecasts for the euro-area economy; Standard Chartered research notes: We expect growth to be revised upwards for 2015 and 2016, and inflation to be revised downwards in 2015. In addition, President Draghi will likely further clarify the QE programme, and may be questioned over how the ECB intends to deal with negative yields and a potential shortfall in sellers; e.g., of German Bunds. He is also likely to comment on Greek banks' access to ECB liquidity operations.

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Eur/jpy on Back Foot in Large Way Overnight, down from 133.89 to 132.41, Await Ecb

Some stops sub-132.50, 132.00, key downside support 130.16 1/26 spike low

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Contraction Accelerates For Australia Construction Sector

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The construction sector in Australia contracted at a faster pace in February, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed on Friday, with a Performance of Construction Index score of 43.9. That's down significantly from 45.9 in January, and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust reading of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Overall, it's the fourth straight month of decline. Among the individual components of the survey, new orders, activity, employment and deliveries from suppliers all continued to contract. By industry, the heaviest declines came in mining and commercial building - although apartment building swung higher to expansion.

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Japan Has Y61.4 Billion Current Account In January

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Japan had a current account surplus of 61.4 billion yen in January, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday. That missed forecasts for a surplus of 270.4 billion yen following the 187.2 billion yen surplus in December. The trade balance showed a deficit of 864.2 billion yen - which beat expectations for a shortfall of 936.0 billion yen following the 395.6 billion yen deficit in the previous month. Exports climbed 15.3 percent on year to 6.332 trillion yen, the data showed, while imports shed 8.9 percent to 7.196 trillion yen. The adjusted current account surplus was 1,058.1 billion yen - below expectations for 1,179.6 billion yen following the 852.8 billion yen surplus a month earlier.

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Japan Core Machine Orders Dip 1.7% In January

Core machine orders in Japan contracted 1.7 percent on month in January, the Cabinet Office said on Wednesday - worth 838.9 billion yen. The headline figure beat expectations for a decline of 4.0 percent following the 8.3 percent surge in December. On a yearly basis, core machine orders added 1.9 percent - also topping forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 11.4 percent spike in the previous month. The total number of machinery orders, including those volatile ones for ships and from electric power companies, gained 14.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year. Manufacturing orders shed 11.3 percent on month but gained 7.3 percent on year to 351.8 billion yen in January, while non-manufacturing orders added 3.7 percent on month but lost 1.9 percent on year to 494.5 billion yen. Government orders gained 25.8 percent on month and 37.4 percent on year to 346.7 billion yen. Orders from overseas climbed 24.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year to 990.6 billion yen. Orders from agencies tumbled 13.9 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year to 99.3 billion yen. For the first quarter of 2015, core machine orders are forecast to have risen 1.5 percent on quarter but lost 0.9 percent on year to 2,455.2 billion yen. Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said that its index measuring producer prices was unchanged on month in February, the Bank of Japan said, standing at 103.3. That was in line with expectations following the 1.3 percent contraction in January. On a yearly basis, prices added 0.5 percent - beating forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent following the 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. Export prices lost 0.8 percent on month and 5.2 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices tumbled 4.9 percent on month and 17.9 percent on year.

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Usd/jpy Bounce Back After Spike down to 120.65 After US Retail Sales Miss

USD/JPY spikes down to 120.65 after large US retail sales miss Pair bounce back to 121.42 in New York, range again in Asia

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Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales Rise 2.9% In February

The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 95,737. That follows the downwardly revised 1.9 percent decline in January (originally -1.5 percent). On a yearly basis, new motor vehicle sales advanced 4.1 percent - accelerating from 0.2 percent in the previous month. By category, sales of passenger vehicles dipped 0.9 percent on month, while other vehicles eased 0.3 percent and sport utility vehicles surged 10.5 percent. By region, the Northern Territory saw the largest percentage increase (22.4 percent) followed by South Australia (8.8 percent) and the Australian Capital Territory (5.9 percent).

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Aud/usd Move Lower from 0.7638 to 0.7611 on Dovish Rba Minutes

RBA considered rate cut at March meet but decided to pause for more data AUD/USD back to 0.7626 last and down 0.15% on the day

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Fed Likely to Remove ‘patient’ Guidance

Markets eagerly await Wednesday's FOMC decision (post-meeting statement and updated projections: 14:00 ET, Chair Yellen's press conference: 14:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes: We think the Fed will remove the "patient" guidance from the statement as it seeks to move towards a more flexible, data-dependent framework. We do not think the softer recent data (e.g., housing, manufacturing production, Michigan consumer survey) changes this picture as the Fed is likely to blame recent weaker data on the harsh weather and emphasize strong payroll growth data. Payroll additions have averaged a solid 293,000/month in the past six months. We do not think the removal of 'patient' automatically means a June rate hike, which Chair Yellen is likely to underscore in her press conference. We think the Fed is likely to wait until September, after core PCE inflation troughs and with more signs that wage growth is on a sustainable uptrend. The Fed may also see more evidence of improving growth in Q2 to support its view that soft Q1 data was weather-related. The shape of the tightening cycle will be an important topic: we expect Yellen to say it is likely to be very gradual, and remain data-dependent. We do not think Yellen will 'talk down' the US dollar's recent strength as, although a headwind, she may emphasise it may be offset by the boost to consumption from lower oil prices and the ongoing underlying improvement in domestic demand.

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Usd/jpy to 119.29 Post fED Taking Out Longs, Bounce to 120.1 Since

Some large 120.00 option expiries too, USD447 million

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New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index Ticks Higher In March - ANZ

Consumer confidence in New Zealand inched slightly higher in March, the latest survey from ANZ Bank showed on Friday - gaining 0.5 percent on month to a score of 124.6. That follows the 3.8 percent tumble in February to a reading of 120.0. "(The result is) a positive sign for a sustainable trend in retail spending," ANZ said in a statement accompanying the data. "The underlying message remains one of optimism."

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Crude Oil Ends Sharply Higher As Dollar Weakens; Gains 4% For Week

U.S. crude oil ended sharply higher on Friday, as the dollar tumbled against a basket of major currencies, under pressure from the Fed's statement regarding rate hikes. Investors largely ignored the supply glut situation, despite indications that global stockpiles will continue to rise. Oil futures recorded a weekly gain of about 4 percent, for the first time in five weeks. With the Federal Reserve providing a somewhat muddled outlook on interest rate hikes two days ago, most commodities and currencies took off on a roller-coaster ride. The Fed withdrew its promise to be patient on interest rate hikes, but then downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and signaled tightening would not occur until the second half of the year. Fed Chief Janet Yellen took a dovish stand with some lower outlook for inflation and GDP growth, signaling that interest rate is likely to rise at a slower pace than expected earlier. Crude oil initially rallied on the Fed's statement indicating rate hikes will be pushed out until at least July, but prices then moved back toward recent 6-year lows.

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Usd pressured by Commodities Gains, Lower Yields

Gold soars Friday, other commodities up. US yields also steady at lower levels seen post-Fed, US Tsy 10s at 1.931%.

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Australian Dollar Falls After China Manufacturing PMI

The Australian dollar weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday, after data showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March. Data from HSBC Bank showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March, with a PMI score of 49.2. That was well shy of forecasts for 50.5, and it was down sharply from 50.7 in February. Now at an 11-month low, the index also dipped below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The Australian dollar fell to 93.83 against the yen, 1.3930 against the euro and 1.0260 against the NZ dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 94.32, 1.3889 and 1.0293, respectively. Against the Canada and U.S. dollars, the aussie dropped to 0.9814 and 0.7836 from an early near 2-month high of 0.9880 and nearly a 4-week high of 0.7901, respectively. At yesterday's close, the aussie was trading at 0.9863 against the loonie and 0.7878 against the greenback. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 91.50 against the yen, 1.36 against the euro, 1.01 against the kiwi, 0.96 against the loonie and 0.75 against the greenback.

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Saudi Arabia Starts Bombing Targets in Yemen, Bullish for Oil Price

Saudi envoy to US says has launched a military operation in Yemen to defend government of president Saudi envoy says military operation in Yemen involves 10 countries including gulf Arab countries Saudi envoy says Yemen Houthi militia forces are in control ballistic weapons Saudi envoy says Hadi and other members of his cabinet are continuing to run the government from Aden Saudi envoy says trying to save Yemen from radical group, have decided to assist Yemen government as requested Saudi envoy says objective of operation is protecting and defending legitimate government of Yemen Saudi envoy says consulted about the military operation with the United States Ssaudi envoy says military operation in Yemen involves air strikes Saudi envoy says declines to give current location of hadi, refers questions to Yemeni officials Saudi envoy says military operation is based on UN and Arab league charters that justify support for Hadi's government Saudi envoy says Houthi militia has control of Yemeni air force Saudi envoy says has air assets from various countries in Saudi Arabia and other military assets on the way to the kingdom Saudi envoy says military operation is not limited to one particular city or region of Yemen Saudi envoy says "having yemen fail is not an option for us" Saudi envoy says military operation Yemen started at 7 p.m. EST and the US is not participating in the operation

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Japanese Investors are Bullish on Japan

Ever since Prime Minister Abe's plans for economic and financial reform - 'Abenomics'- were put in place, there has been increased optimism towards financial assets. Monetary and fiscal stimulus have supported rallies in the Nikkei and USD-JPY since November 2012 of 125% and 50%, respectively. The sense of optimism is different this time. This is more than financial assets being supported by quantitative easing. Standard Chartered (SC) research notes that there is a strong belief among local investors that things are changing in corporate Japan. Corporates are drawing down cash from their balance sheets and using it to fund overseas M&A. There is also an increased focus by corporate leaders on improving return on equity (ROE). If the objective of Abenomics is to change the mindset of consumers and corporates, it seems that the corporates are listening and ready to act. If local investor optimism was focused on USD-JPY in December, investors are currently focusing all of their domestic interests on local equities. The shift in investor positioning is reflected in the change in correlation between USD-JPY and the Nikkei. As recently as February, the 30-day rolling correlation between the two markets was as high as 0.60, but has fallen to marginally negative levels. In addition to increased optimism about corporate behaviour, there is increased confidence in corporate profitability. SC adds that investors highlighted improvements in earnings as well as profit margins.

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Usd/myr Uptrend Intact Above 3.70, Could Test at 3.7280 Ytd High

Higher DXY, fiscal woes, foreign outflows underpin 1 month traded 3.7255-3.7300 range overnight, closed 3.7245-85 in NY

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Gbp Focus Remains on the Election

In a similar vein to last week where the final reading of UK Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised higher, UK activity data this week should be consistent with robust economic activity. However, continued political uncertainty is likely to keep downward pressure on GBP. Barclays says they and consensus forecast the services PMI (Tuesday) to increase slightly to 57.0 in March from 56.7 in February while industrial and manufacturing output (Friday) should both increase 0.4% m/m in February (consensus: 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively). The Bank of England rate decision (Thursday) is widely expected to result in no change of policy and therefore no statement will be issued. Indeed, central bank guidance is likely to be lacking over the next five weeks. With the dissolution of parliament on 30 March, the BoE is now bound by "purdah" rules which prevent central bank communication until the final election results are known. The 7 May general election remains the least predictable in a generation and growing political risk premium ahead of the event is likely to support high levels of GBP volatility and weigh on GBP. "we forecast further GBP/USD depreciation to 1.42 in Q2 2015 and modest EURGBP appreciation towards 0.74 over the next one to two months as political risk premium increases", Said Barclays in a report on Monday

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Europe Manufacturing Activity on a Slow Pace

Markets will focus their attention this week on Greece. A late payment of the IMF loan repayment of €460m on 9 April cannot be ruled out. Greece sent a list of reforms last week in the hope that it will allow the (partial) disbursement of the €7.2bn instalment under the remaining troika tranche. However, it is not sure that there is sufficient agreement for the Eurogroup to meet and decide before the next scheduled meeting (24 April). On the data front, the final estimate of the PMI should slightly disappoint from the flash, yet remaining at levels consistent with solid GDP growth in H1 15. German industrial output and export figures should point to a slow pace of recovery in the manufacturing sector in February although factory orders might suggest some improvement. French Industrial output for February and BoF business sentiment for March should also support the slightly firmer picture of the French economy. "we expect the Swiss headline inflation rate to rise slightly to -0.7% yoy in March, driven by higher oil prices over the past two months", Says Societe Generale.

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Rbi Maintains Status Quo on Policy Rates, Further Rate Cuts are Still Likely

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It did not come as a surprise that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained status quo on rates in its policy meeting today. The repo rate was kept on hold at 7.50%. This does not indicate an end to monetary policy easing, however; the RBI emphasised in its policy statement that its stance remains accommodative. Also, while the RBI has made the amount and timing of further rate cuts contingent upon four pre-conditions the governor said that "some progress" on these could trigger rate action. The RBI will watch for developments on (1) The transmission of a 50bps reduction YTD in the repo rate, (2) CPI inflation prints, especially after the recent unseasonal rainfall, (3) policy efforts to unclog supply bottlenecks and reduce the pipeline of stalled projects, and (4) the impact of the US Fed's expected interest rate normalisation on financial markets. Standard Chartered says they expect another 50bps reduction in the repo rate to 7.0% in FY16, equally split between the June and August policy meetings. The RBI will, by then, have fresh information on most of its pre-conditions, especially on transmission channels and the impact of weather on the CPI inflation trajectory. Remaining fairly confident that the first 25bps of policy rate reduction will occur by June, the subsequent 25bps reduction may be delayed if the RBI becomes concerned about the impact of the first Fed rate hike. "We see a risk that the last 25bps reduction may not occur if the RBI decides to keep real policy rates at the mid-point of its desired 150-200bps range, instead of at the lower end as we currently assume. We expect CPI inflation to average 5.4% y/y in FY16", Said Standard Chartered in a report on Wednesday

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Japan's February Mor Likely Shrank

Japan will release February machinery orders (MoR) and March PPI inflation on 13 April. The MoR is expected to have declined by 2.0% m/m in February after dropping 1.7% m/m in January. "Exports and industrial production contracted m/m in February partly due to sluggish external demand; we think the MoR will follow a similar trend as it is an indicator of business capex. PPI inflation likely continued slowing in March, to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in February", says Standard Chartered Excluding the sales tax effect, PPI inflation likely dropped by 2.5ppt y/y in March. Prices in the energy sector contracted significantly in the first two months of 2015. The trend is likely to continue in March and put downward pressure on domestic PPI inflation.

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Rbi Continues to Display a Clear Dovish Bias

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy interest rates unchanged earlier this week, but continues to display a clear dovish bias, as indicated by its comment, that "going forward, the accommodative stance of monetary policy will be maintained, but monetary policy actions will be conditioned by incoming data." The RBI also appears confident in achieving its retail (CPI) inflation target of 6% by early 2016. The bank highlighted that potential upside risks to inflation (ie, weather aberrations, administered price hikes, geo-political factors) are counter-balanced by global deflationary/disinflationary trends, the still soft outlook for global commodity prices and the slack in the domestic economy. "We continue to forecast a 25bp cut in the repo rate in June. We would also not rule out the risk of further easing, but this will depend on greater clarity on 2016 inflation and the impact of a potential Fed rate hike in H2 2015." - Barclays Capital said in a report on Friday

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Swedish Inflation Data in Focus

Swedish inflation (Tuesday) is likely to dominate the agenda for the SEK in the coming week. In line with the projections and recent Riksbank rhetoric, market participants are looking for a further bounce in CPIF inflation to 0.3% m/m (1.1% y/y) from 0.8% m/m (0.9% y/y). Indeed, inflation has recently been surprising to the upside, with Riksbank officials acknowledging that currently easy monetary policy is having an effect. A further increase in inflation is likely to support the SEK against other European currencies such as the EUR and the NOK. "we remain cautious about a sustained SEK rally at this juncture given the Riksbank's recent emphasis on a strong SEK posing downside risks to the inflation outlook. Further ahead, we remain constructive on the SEK owing to positive fundamentals, an improved economic outlook and our expectations for further stabilization in inflation", Says Barclays

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Us Consumers Likely returned to Shops in March

After dismal private consumption in January and February, partly due to the harsh weather, a rebound is likely in March: retail sales likely to be seen up 0.9% m/m (consensus: 1.0%), boosted by solid car sales, after -0.6% in February. Standard Chartered notes: We see core sales ex autos and gas up 0.4% from -0.2% in February. This should fuel hopes that GDP will rebound in Q2 after hitting a speed bump in Q1. We see the gas-pump savings starting to boost US consumption gradually, many consumers having opted to pay down debt rather than spend on other items so far. We see growth of 1.0% q/q SAAR in Q1, accelerating to 3.0% in Q2.

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Bank of Canada may Stay Put at Its April Meeting

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The Bank of Canada releases its policy decision at 10:00 ET on Wednesday, alongside its quarterly monetary policy report. "We think the overnight lending rate will be kept at 0.75%, as all analysts polled by Bloomberg also forecast. We do not entirely dismiss a rate cut - the memory of the 'surprise' January rate cut remains vivid", Says Standard Chartered Governor Poloz is not afraid of surprise moves - but the probability is relatively low. The tone as being dovish, and expect Governor Poloz to emphasise that the BoC remains open to cutting rates further later, depending on the data. A likely modest cut to the 2015 growth forecast (currently 2.1%) should add to the dovish slant.

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Poland Will Probably Exit Deflation This Year[/B]

Although a stronger PLN may extend the period of deflation, a turning point has been reached in the deflationary cycle that began in August 2014. The CPI bottomed out in February, and after increasing in March, and it will likely gradually increase in the forthcoming months, turning positive again by the end of Q4 15. The central bank expects deflation to come in at -0.5% yoy at the end of 2015. The Ministry of Finance expects the country to exit deflation sooner than the central bank is forecasting. It is possible, however, that a stronger PLN and volatile oil prices create uncertainty around the ministry's expectation. "In its recent World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast Poland's CPI to accelerate to 0.4% yoy at the end of this year. In our opinion, it will instead be in the range of 0.1-0.3%", said Societe Generale in a report on Thursday

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Canada: Cpi and Retail Sales Two Top Tier Data Releases Tonight[/B]

Tonight we get two top tier data releases in Canada: CPI and retail sales. A still-firm, but on-consensus CPI report is expected (RBC: core 2.1%y/y, cons: 2.1%), and considering the BoC seems to be more focused on activity indicators at the moment, that means the retail sales figure is more relevant and likely to get an FX reaction. The expectations are decently above consensus for retail sales (RBC: ex-auto 1.3%m/m, cons: 0.7%). That implies a CAD positive reaction, but that may only be a small influence compared to the direction of oil prices which have been the most important driver for CAD this week. RBC Capital Market Says "Our technical strategy team highlights 60.99 and 63.50 as the key levels above for WTI now that the long-held range has broken. For USD/CAD, they point out 1.2114 and 1.2066 as the key levels below, and see resistance located at 1.2253 and 1.2326"

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Treasuries Recover From Early Weakness Amid Sell-Off On Wall Street

After moving modestly lower in early trading Friday, treasuries showed a notable turnaround over the course of the trading day. Bond prices climbed well off their early lows to end the day firmly in positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 2.8 basis points to 1.85 percent. With the drop on the day, the ten-year yield extended a recent downward trend, ending the session at its lowest closing level in well over two months. The rebound by treasuries was partly due to a sell-off on Wall Street, with the Dow tumbling by more than 300 points at its worst levels. Concerns about developments overseas contributed to the pullback by stocks, leading some traders to move their money into the relatively safe haven of bonds. The early weakness among treasuries came following the release of the Labor Department's report on consumer price inflation in the month of March. The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in March, matching the increase seen in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent for the third consecutive month. The uptick in core prices matched economist estimates. While the headline index was down by 0.1 percent compared to a year-ago, the annual rate of core price growth ticked up to 1.8 percent in March from 1.7 percent in February. The core price growth is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, said, "Given recent activity data weakness, which has seemed to all but rule out a June rate hike, this data adds an additional, but unhelpfully contradictory inflation element to the rate hike timing debate." "That said, it will need corroboration by activity data soon if it is not to be too late for a June hike, and that point of no return may have already been passed," he added. Following the slew of economic data released over the past week, the economic calendar for next week is relatively quiet. Nonetheless, traders are likely to keep an eye on reports on weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and new and existing home sales.

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Japan Tertiary Industry Index +0.3% In February

An index measuring tertiary industry activity in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in February, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday, standing at 100.5. That topped forecasts for a decline of 0.7 percent following the 1.4 percent gain in January. Among the industries moving higher were real estate, transport and postal activities, finance and learning support. Industries moving lower included retail, medical, utilities, personal services and compound services.

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Singapore Inflation Likely decreased Further in March

Singapore releases March inflation numbers on 23 April. On a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, inflation likely decreased to -0.1%. Singapore's current path of disinflation is temporary. Housing inflation likely continued to drag down headline inflation, as decreases in housing prices weighed on the rental market. Private road transport inflation was also likely dragged down by a sharper correction in ownership premiums on motor vehicles. In contrast, petrol duties implemented in February likely continued to support core inflation. A deflationary pressures is seen dissipating as the year progresses. "We expect inflation to have declined further to -0.5% y/y, versus the higher -0.3% recorded in February", says Standard Chartered.

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Taiwan Ip Data Likely to have slowed due to Base Effects

Taiwan is scheduled to release March industrial production (IP) data on 23 April. Weak export sales data during February-March and softer global oil prices likely impacted production output negatively in March. Residential and real estate construction activity is expected to have been dampened by the government's efforts to curb speculation in the residential property market. On the positive side, activity in the local retail trade and services sector likely remained robust, partly due to rising tourist arrivals, which supported IP activity. "We expect IP to have expanded by 2.0% y/y, the slowest annual gain since late 2013, partly due to base effects", says Standard Chartered.

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Germany Ifo Business Climate Likely continued to Improve

The index has been on a clear uptrend since its trough in October 2014. The combination of a lower oil price, and European Central Bank easing policies that led to euro (EUR) depreciation and lower borrowing rates is helping German businesses. Exporters are likely to be particularly positively affected by EUR depreciation. In the last survey, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers all showed an improved outlook. The construction-sector outlook deteriorated, but remains strong. Germany is expected to maintain this positive momentum in Q2, unless geopolitical events raise uncertainty or the situation in Greece becomes more dramatic. "We expect the German IFO business climate index to have increased to 108.7 in April from 107.9 in March, an eight-month high", said Standard Chartered in a report on Thursday.

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Japan Producer Prices Rise 3.2% In March

An index measuring producer prices in Japan were up 3.2 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Friday - standing at 103.0. That was just shy of forecasts for 3.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the February reading. Among the individual components, prices were down for hotels, real estate, communications and transportation. For the first quarter of 2015, producer prices were up 3.3 percent on year, slowing from 3.5 percent in the previous three months. They were also down 0.1 percent on quarter after adding 0.2 percent in the three months prior.

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Americas Roundup: Cad Rapidly Depreciating Vs. Usd on Friday, Poloz Speech Weighs - 27 April, 2015

Market Roundup United States Durable Goods Mar 4%, forecast 0.6%, previous -1.4% United States Non-def Ex-Air Mar -0.5%, forecast 0.3%, previous -2.2%, def spending skews headline number Mexico Retail Sales YY Feb 5.6%, forecast 4.2%, previous 4.7%, rates on hold unless inflation rises United States Mar building permits revised number mm increase to 1.042 mln vs previous 1.039 mln United States Mar building permits revised chg mm increase to -5.4 % vs previous -5.7 % Argentina Feb economic activity yy increase to +1.4 % (forecast 0.5 %) vs previous 0.0 % Argentina Mar industrial output nsa increase to -1.6 % (forecast -1.5 %) vs previous -2.2 % Colombia's central bank holds key lending rate at 4.5 pct, as expected Greece's Varoufakis agreement with lenders will be difficult but will happen, there is no other choice; Greece needs a deal & is ready to compromise Germany'S Merkel says we will do everything to ensure that Greece stays in the Euro zone European governments have largely failed to reform (EU document) Bank of Canada's Poloz Oil price shock soon to be positive overall for Canada Reuters Poll Brazil's CB to hike rates 50bps next week to 13.25% (42/48 economists) Economic Data Ahead No Significant Data Key Events Ahead Sat Apr 25 (1130 ET/ 1530 GMT) German Bundesbank Pres Weidmann & German FinMin Schaeuble to participate in a press conference FX Recap USD/CAD: Canadian dollar is now rapidly depreciating vs. its American counterpart on Friday, lifting USD/CAD to session highs near 1.2180. Canadian dollar shed further ground following Poloz speech. USD dynamics and the crude oil performance will remain the main drivers for the CAD into the next week. GDP figures for the month of February, due on Thursday will also be watched. Currently the pair is up 0.21% at 1.2170. Immediate resistance is at 1.2208 (low Apr 22) followed by 1.2250 (high Apr 23) and then 1.2328 (high Apr 16). Supports on the downside are at 1.2135 (low Apr 23), 1.2100 (psychological level) and finally 1.2088 (low Apr 17). Option expiries Monday 27th: 1.20 (700M),1.2035-50 (700M), 1.2165 (804M), 1.22 (807M) USD/JPY: Greenback is losing face in to the closing hours of the week's session. USD/JPY bears in charge ahead of BoJ next week. The pair has lost the 119 handle in a bearish market, and is currently trading at the day's low of 118.84 after having made a high of 119.67. Supports is seen at 118.30 (March 26 low), while resistances are at 120.14 and 120.44.

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Uk Consumption to Drive Growth, Investment Under Pressur

UK GDP is expected to have expanded 0.7% q/q (2.8% y/y) in Q1, slightly higher than the 0.6% q/q rise in Q4-2014. Household consumption likely remained the key contributor to GDP growth, as it has been since the beginning of the UK recovery. Net trade is also likely to have made a marginally positive contribution, leading to a smaller trade deficit. Business investment may have remained under pressure due to election uncertainty; it fell 0.9% q/q in Q4. Whether we see a rebound in investment in Q2 will depend on how quickly the uncertainty fades after the election. Regarding GDP's sectoral breakdown, the average services PMI for Q1 was higher than in Q4-2014, a signal that the recovery remains very much driven by the services sector. Industrial production is more subdued recently, especially the oil-extraction sector.

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