Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 20 2013
Ben Bernanke; "Fed remains committed to maintaining highly accommodative polices for as long as they are needed"
Any belief that the USA Fed will taper soon appear to have been dashed by the Fed's chairman Ben Bernanke late Wednesday evening; he stated that the US economy still weak, may be some time before Fed policy normalizes. Agrees with Yellen that a path to more normal monetary policy is to dependent on promoting robust recovery. Fed expects the labor market to continue to improve, inflation to move toward 2% goal over medium term. Asset purchases are not on a pre-set course, the pace of buying contingent on Fed’s economic outlook. Wednesday sees the publication of Germany's PPI, expected in at 0.1% up for the month and the BoE MPC publishes its voting over the current quantitative easing programme and rate setting, expected to have been unanimous. Inflation details for the USA are published, with the CPI expected in up 0.1% on the month, RPI up 0.1% with CPI flat. USA existing home sales are expected in at 5.21 million per annum, a slight fall expected due to seasonal activity slowing down moderately. The FOMC recent meeting minutes are published, prior to that FOMC member Bullard speaks. The governor of Canada's central bank Poloz speaks, China's HSBC flash manufacturing index is published, expected in at 50.9, whilst Japan's monetary policy statement is published as the BOJ conducts a press conference.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-20 09:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes
2013-11-20 09:30 GMT | UK. BOE MPC Vote Cut
2013-11-20 13:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-11-20 19:00 GMT | USA. FOMC Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-20 05:29 GMT | AUD/USD breaks below 0.94, bearish development intraday
2013-11-20 04:28 GMT | USD sellers capitalize on Bernanke's dovish speech
2013-11-20 02:08 GMT | GBP/USD… is 1.61 in jeopardy?
2013-11-20 00:43 GMT | GBP/JPY manifests double-tops pattern on 161.65 limits
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EURUSD
HIGH 1.35774 LOW 1.3533 BID 1.35474 ASK 1.35478 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 16:49
https://support.fxcc.com/email/techn...013/EURUSD.png
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bullish oriented. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.3563 (R1) would enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.3597 (R2) and 1.3631 (R3). Downwards scenario: We still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.3501 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.3472 (S2) and 1.3446 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3563, 1.3597, 1.3631
Support Levels: 1.3501, 1.3472, 1.3446
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61431 LOW 1.61063 BID 1.61066 ASK 1.61074 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 16:50
https://support.fxcc.com/email/techn...013/GBPUSD.png
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.6136 (R1). Break here would open road towards to our interim aim at 1.6155 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive measure at 1.6172 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 1.6090 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 1.6064 (S2) and 1.6039 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6136, 1.6155, 1.6172
Support Levels: 1.6090, 1.6064, 1.6039
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USDJPY :
HIGH 100.223 LOW 99.938 BID 100.084 ASK 100.086 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 16:51
https://support.fxcc.com/email/techn...013/USDJPY.png
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 100.22 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 100.53 (R2) and then mark at 100.85 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 99.84 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 99.57 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 99.29 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.53, 100.85
Support Levels: 99.84, 99.57, 99.29
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 21 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 21 2013
European manufacturing PMIs published Thursday could indicate the ECB's next move on interest rates
Thursday sees the publication of Germany's and France's flash manufacturing and service PMIs together with Europe's which is expected to print at 51.6 for manufacturing and 51.9 for services. The RBA governor of Australia holds court on Thursday, whilst the UK's public net sector borrowing is published expected slightly up in at ?10.1 bn. USA PPI is expected in at -0.1% whilst unemployment numbers are expected in at 333K, slightly up from the previous week. Flash manufacturing data is expected to print at 52.6. Europe's consumer confidence is expected in at -14.1 with the Philly manufacturing index for the USA expected in at 15.1, down from 19.8 the previous month. Perhaps the most illuminating comment in the latest FOMC meeting minutes, published late Wednesday evening, was the commitment that; "the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends". The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback against 10 major peers, increased for the first time in four days, adding 0.4 percent to 1,019.10 yen late in New York. The euro declined 0.9 percent to 134.34 yen after earlier touching 135.95, the strongest level since October 2009. The shared currency fell 0.8 percent to $1.3435. The dollar slid 0.1 percent to 99.99 yen. The dollar rose versus most major peers as Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases ?in coming months? as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show.
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-21 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
2013-11-21 09:05 GMT | RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
2013-11-21 10:05 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-11-21 13:30 GMT | US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-21 06:15 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 100.60, new 6-month high
2013-11-21 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD maintains bearish pressure, 1.3390 is critical support Thursday
2013-11-21 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD bearish march pauses at 0.93 ahead of RBA Stevens
2013-11-21 03:24 GMT | BoJ keeps policy unchanged, retains 60T-70T easing plan
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3442 LOW 1.34136 BID 1.34286 ASK 1.34289 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 37:15
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.3462 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Fresh low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3412 (S1) on a downside. A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3380 (S2) and 1.3348 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3462, 1.3492, 1.3525
Support Levels: 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3348
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61082 LOW 1.60721 BID 1.60860 ASK 1.60869 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 37:16
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 1.6177 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 1.6220 (R2) and 1.6260 (R3). Downwards scenario: However, if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.6057 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 1.6018 (S2) and 1.5978 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6177, 1.6220, 1.6260
Support Levels: 1.6057, 1.6018, 1.5978
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USDJPY :
HIGH 100.812 LOW 100.006 BID 100.690 ASK 100.694 CHANGE 0.66% TIME 08 : 37:17
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market gained momentum on the upside recently and turned short-term tendency to the positive side. Further appreciation above the resistance at 100.88 (R1) might push the price towards to our targets at 101.12 (R2) and 101.36 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 100.44 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and push the price towards to our intraday targets at 100.19 (S2) and 99.95 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.88, 101.12, 101.36
Support Levels: 100.44, 100.19, 99.95
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 22 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 22 2013
DJIA closes above 16,000 for the first time as dollar yen rises above 101
Today we receive the data concerning Germany's final GDP figure expected in at 0.3% up, with the German IFO index expected in at 107.9. Friday also sees a raft of info. regarding Canada; core CPI data is published expected in flat, with CPI up 0.2%. Retail sales is predicted in up 0.5% for the month. Jolts job openings are published in the USA, it measures the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry. The DJIA rose more than 100 points and finally closed above 16,000 for the first time in history on Thursday. The index crossed that psychological milestone earlier this week, but then sold off for three days as the index closed in the red. The S&P 500 also closed up, while the Nasdaq rose more than 1%. The yen fell 1.1 percent to 101.16 per dollar late in New York time Thursday, the weakest level seen since July 10th. Japan?s currency slid 1.4 percent to 136.37 per euro after declining to 136.40, the lowest since October 2009. The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3482. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency versus 10 major counterparts, rose 0.2 percent to 1,020.97 after advancing 0.4 percent Wednesday. The dollar gauge breached its 100- and 200-day moving averages as it approached a two-month high.
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-22 07:00 GMT | DE Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)
2013-11-22 09:30 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-11-22 13:30 GMT | CA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-11-22 13:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-22 06:47 GMT | EUR/USD tests highs ahead of German data
2013-11-22 06:34 GMT | GBP/USD nearing upper edge of two-month trading range
2013-11-22 05:39 GMT | USD/JPY retests 101.00 bids, 101.30+ double topside failure
2013-11-22 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD bearish party goes on, 0.92 gives up
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34895 LOW 1.34624 BID 1.34837 ASK 1.34840 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08 : 57:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Further upwards penetration might face next challenge at 1.3495 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.3513 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3530 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 1.3462 (S1) limits possible downtrend expansion. Break here is required to enable lower target at 1.3444 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3426 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3495, 1.3513, 1.3530
Support Levels: 1.3462, 1.3444, 1.3426
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.62046 LOW 1.61764 BID 1.61945 ASK 1.61952 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 57:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 1.6213 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 1.6242 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 1.6271 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support barrier at 1.6178 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 1.6150 (S2) and 1.6122 (S3) in potential
Resistance Levels: 1.6213, 1.6242, 1.6271
Support Levels: 1.6178, 1.6150, 1.6122
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USDJPY :
HIGH 101.353 LOW 100.956 BID 100.997 ASK 100.999 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 57:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 101.36 (R1) would suggest next targets at 101.58 (R2) and 101.81 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, a dip below the initial support level at 100.84 (S1) is liable to trigger bearish pressure and drive market price towards to supportive means at 100.62 (S2) and 100.39 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 101.36, 101.58, 101.81
Support Levels: 100.84, 100.62, 100.39
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 19 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 19 2013
After the USA FOMC taper tantrum focus now shifts back to key fundamentals such as the USA claimant count
Thursday we receive data on Europe's balance of payments which is predicted to print at ?14.2 billion positive. Retail sales in the UK are predicted to come in at 0.3% up on the month. USA unemployment claims are predicted in at 336K, down from 368K, existing home sales are predicted in at 5.04 million annual rate, a slight seasonal fall from the previous month. The Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to come in at 10.3, significantly up from 6.5 the previous month. Natural gas storage data is printed for the USA. Last week was down -81bn. Late evening Japan publishes its monetary policy statement and the Bank of Japan holds a press conference. The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback versus its 10 major counterparts, gained 0.5 percent to 1.021.53 late in New York Wednesday. The greenback added 1.4 percent to 104.12 yen, the highest level since Oct. 6, 2008. The U.S. currency advanced 0.6 percent to $1.3685 versus Europe?s 17-nation euro. The dollar rose to a five-year high versus the yen after the Federal Reserve officials voted to reduce monthly asset purchases that are seen as debasing the U.S. currency amidst signs that economic growth is strengthening. The DJIA closed up 1.84% on Wednesday, a new record high at 16167, the SPX closed up 1.66% and the NASDAQ up 1.15%. In Europe STOXX closed up 1.13%, CAC up 1.00%, DAX up 1.06% and the FTSE up 0.09%. Looking towards Thursday the equity index future for the DJIA is up 1.89%, SPX up 1.79%, NASDAQ future up 1.38%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 0.88%, DAX up 0.88%, CAC up 0.97%, FTSE up 0.02%. NYMEX WTI oil closed the day up 0.60% at $97.80 per barrel, NASDAQ nat gas down 0.30% at $4.27 per therm, COMEX gold up 0.40% at $1235.00 per ounce with silver on COMEX down 0.66% at $19.71 per ounce.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-19 09:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-19 13:30 GMT | US. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)
2013-12-19 14:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q3)
2013-12-19 15:00 GMT | US. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Nov)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-19 05:34 GMT | GBP/AUD remains at multi-year highs just above 1.8500; next long-term target is 1.9670
2013-12-19 05:17 GMT | EUR/USD extends bearish bias, 1.3615 support eyed
2013-12-19 04:47 GMT | EUR/JPY pulling back early Thursday after big up day Wednesday; next upside target 145.76
2013-12-19 03:11 GMT | GBP/USD may have completed 5th wave higher Wednesday at 1.6483; 1st pullback target 1.6089
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36939 LOW 1.36493 BID 1.36744 ASK 1.36747 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24
https://support.fxcc.com/email/techn...013/EURUSD.png
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative short-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.3697 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.3715 (R2) and 1.3731 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3656 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3634 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3615 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3697, 1.3715, 1.3731
Support Levels: 1.3656, 1.3634, 1.3615
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63972 LOW 1.63656 BID 1.63763 ASK 1.63768 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:24
https://support.fxcc.com/email/techn...013/GBPUSD.png
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.6391 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.6408 (R2) and 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.6353 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 1.6337 (S2) and 1.6324 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424
Support Levels: 1.6353, 1.6337, 1.6324
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USDJPY :
HIGH 104.363 LOW 103.782 BID 104.006 ASK 104.009 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24
https://support.fxcc.com/email/techn...013/USDJPY.png
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 104.36 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 104.60 (R2) and 104.83 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 103.83 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 103.54 (S2) and 103.24 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 104.36, 104.60, 104.83
Support Levels: 103.83, 103.54, 103.24
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Broker | ECN Forex Trading Platform | Foreign Currency Exchange | Best Currency Online Trading | FXCC )
