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  1. #361
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    EUR/USD Wave Analysis. Weekly Survey

    Major economic data is due for release today. German Zew economic sentiment, Zew economic sentiment and final CPI y/y are due today. The German Zew economic sentiment has been disappointing thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. Greek issue remains the main focus of attention in the near term. At yesterday's session, the USD changed the direction and was trading higher against most major pears. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback managed to get away from lows. Technical view:The pair started the new week with losses after five consecutive profitable weeks. We have already said the pair is likely to make the near-term top between 1.1480 and 1.1535. The pair rejected at 1.1467 and fell by 160 pips. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Dema 1.1300. We recommended selling below 1.1390 with a target at 1.1300. The pair made a low exactly at our targets. At today's Asian session, the pair was trading above the support level. Weekly support is found at 1.1130 20Wsma. In case the price closes below 1.1300, bears will aim at 20Wsma and the level of 1.1050 later. The 100Dsma is found at 1.1178. We expect fresh selling below 1.1300 towards 1.1200 and 1.1178 in the least case 1.1130 likely. Today we expect negative data on the euro. Intraday support is found at 1.1300, 1.1210, and 1.1190. Resistance is seen at 1.1326, 1.1360, and 1.1390. Use every rise to sell with sl 1.1390 and safe sell will trigger below 1.1300 with targets at 1.1210 and 1.1190.

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  2. #362
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    AUDNZD long term downtrend could continue

    Looking at the long-term picture based on the daily time frame, AUD/NZD got quite volatile over the last year. While it has been consistently rising since the beginning of 2014, after reaching the top at 1.1298 it felt sharply. The pair lost over 1200 points in 5 months. The uptrend breakout allowed applying Fibonacci in order to find support/resistance and potential targets. The most significant fact is a break below the downside target, S3 (1.0344), which assumes a continuation of a long-term decline. In addition, AUD/NZD is currently rejecting the 50% Fibs, the point of the trend-line breakout, and it looks like a strong resistance has been established around the R1 (1.0820) area. Consider selling AUD/NZD around the current levels. A target is seen at S2 (1.0570), the most appropriate area because it was acting as support as well as resistance previously. A break above 1.0890, which was a high back on May 13, could send the price higher to test the uptrend as resistance this time. Support: 1.0707, 1.0569, 1.0344 Resistance: 1.0820, 1.0933, 1.1289

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  3. #363
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    GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for June 5, 2012

    In April 2015, the index of producer prices for German industrial products fell by 1.5% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March 2015, the annual rate of change was �.7%. The overall index rose by 0.1% in April 2015 (+0.1% in March and February 2015) compared with the preceding month. Given a series of macroeconomic data today is understandably a busy day on the markets. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. The ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due. The French and German flash manufacturing and services PMI are due. The European flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI are due. Today, we expect the eurozone, Germany and French to deliver negative readings. Technical view: The pair fell into the strong support zone. We can call it as make-or-break zone. Ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting, the pair has been trading in a very tight range between 1.1146 and 1.1060. The strong support zone is found at 1.1050. In the four-hour, the RSI is oversold. Ahead of major events, we expect wild moves at the intraday levels not to work out. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1185 and support is found at 1.0930. From May 14, we have been advising that the pair is likely to retest the support between 1.1100 and 1.1050. The pair exactly returned from the given resistance zone 1.1480 and 1.1535, fell by 400 pips. Until the pair closes below 1.1290 rounded to 1.1300, use every rise to sell following the trend.

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  4. #364
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    EUR/NZD long-term trend still down

    Clearly EUR/NZD established a long-term downtrend. Before this, EUR/NZD failed to break above R2 (1.57 area) that would confirm a new higher high. While every new low being lower as well as every new high being lower, bears should be dominating in the mid-term future. With two different downtrend trendlines applied to the chart, a strong resistance area has come into play. This is R1 level (1.54), which is also a round number and a psychological barrier. Early this week, both trendlines have been rejected suggesting that down trend might continue. Now, it seems wise to start looking for sell opportunities on pullbacks as the market could be too low to enter the short trade at this point. Target either S2 (1.4820) or S3 (1.4636) support levels. Support: 1.5039, 1.4819, 1.4636 Resistance: 1.5398, 1.5679

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  5. #365
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    Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for May 26, 2015

    All time intervals favor bears. Bulls' last hope is at 1.3680. The 50Msma is found at 1.3688, 200Wsma is seen at 1.3684. April's low is made at 1.3685. The euro is depressed by the ECB's QE and Greek saga. In the monthly and weekly charts, lower high formation is taking place. We can observe multi lows between 1.3735 and 1.3685 in the daily chart. Lower lows formation has been extending in the daily chart as well. The pair closes below near and medium-term moving averages. Early at today's Asian session, the cross has rejected at 50Dsma. The nearest support is found at 1.4000. Ideal selling is available below 1.4000 with targets at 1.3980, 1.3950, and 1.3920 initially. Risky traders can use sl 1.4045 and sell at the current level of 1.4029. Safe selling is available below 1.3980. Until the cross closes below 1.4205, bears will aim at 1.3920, 1.3810, and 1.3750.

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  6. #366
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 27, 2015

    Today is understandably a quiet day for the euro because of lack of macroeconomic data. Traders shifted the focus to the US. The US housing data added extra power to the USD bulls. USD traded higher against majors. New homes purchases in the US expanded in April. The Federal Reserve's rate hike decision depends on data release. The CB consumer confidence increased moderately in May. The Index stands at 95.4 now, up from 94.3 in April. Yesterday's positive US data raised hopes on Fed's interest rate hike. The pair has been falling for 3 days. After the liquidly returns, the pair posts a big drop at yesterday's session. In seven trading session, the pair posted 4 falling days. This shows the immense selling pressure on the euro takes place. The euro bulls lost the last hope at 1.0950 when the price closed below that. We initially advised selling with sl 1.1535, 1.1130 later, and again below 1.0940, low was made at 1.0863. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading higher against USD. Ahead of Germany Gfk consumer climate data, the euro is trading higher. We expect negative readings. Use rises to sell again for the targets at 1.0820 and 1.0800 initially. On May 25, we advised selling with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0550 later. Trade: Selling below 1.0850.

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  7. #367
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    Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 28, 201

    Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading lower around the levels of 1.4550/60 for now as expected. The pair might still want to test the level of 1.4650, the upper boundary of recent trading range, before reversing lower. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further positions on higher levels. Immediate support is seen at rhe level of 1.4550 followed by 1.4400/1.4350, 1.4150, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4650 (range) followed by 1.4700, 1.4850/1.4900, and higher respectively. Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop at 1.4760, a target is open.

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  8. #368
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    Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 29, 2015

    According to the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has been trading between 0.9556 and 0.9374. The level of 0.9556 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point is coinciding with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. In consequence, sell below 0.9556 in the short term with the first target at 0.9374 in order to test support 1. If the trend is able to break the support 1 at 0.7374; then it might resume to 0.9287 with a view to form the double bottom. Hence, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 0.9556 and continue towards the last bearish wave at 0.9287. However, the best location for placing your stop loss should be set at 0.9575 because the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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  9. #369
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    Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 02, 2015

    The pound hit a fresh four-week low against USD after the US manufacturing data release. The US dollar dominated against major pairs at yesterday's session. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS PMI ticked higher to 52.0 in May, up from a revised reading of 51.8 in April (previously reported as 51.9). The UK manufacturing sector showed further modest expansions of both output and new orders in May. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the 29th consecutive month. The overall economy grew for the 72nd consecutive month. Upcoming event: Today, traders eye construction PMI. The UK construction sector has been struggling for a while, led by housing market. Technical analysis: The cable held the 20Wsma and was trading above. The weekly support was found at 1.5150 and 1.5089. At yesterday's session, the cable touched the 100Dsma and 50Dsma junction placed at 1.5165. We expect a technical bounce with a target at 1.5300 in a day or two, later 1.5525 in the extreme case. We advised to buy between 1.5150 and 1.5100 with sl 1.5089. The same theme we still recommend this week as well. In the H1 chart, lower lows and lower highs are expanding. The price has been consolidating at 1.5200 for 8-hours. As we explained earlier, technical bounce likely. For today's session risky buying is available with sl 1.5160 and targets at 1.5240, 1.5260, and 1.5300 CMP 1.5200. Safe buying will trigger above 1.5220. Intraday support is found at 1.5160 and 1.5130. Positional buying is advised with small quantity. Bulls are likely to regain strength above 1.5300 with targets at 1.5340, 1.5380, and 1.5420. In case dip takes place buyers available between 1.5130 and 1.5100.

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  10. #370
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    Daily analysis of USDX for June 03, 2015

    The US Dollat Index is testing the support level of 95.74 now. If it does a breakout in that zone, the USDX will fall to the level of 94.66. Anyway, we think this corrective move is a short-term bearish bias, because the USDX aims at the upside and the immediate resistance is seen around the level of 96.97.

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 24, 2015

    When the European market opens, economic data on Belgian NBB Business Climate is due.The US will release data on Crude Oil Inventories, Final GDP Price Index q/q, anf Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1227.
    Strong Resistance:1.1221.
    Original Resistance: 1.1210.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1199.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1173.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1148.
    Original Support: 1.1136.
    Strong Support: 1.1126.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1120.

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  12. #372
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    Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 25, 2015

    GBP/USD was moving in a bearish trend during yesterday's session as we can see on daily chart. Now it's looking for an opportunity to fall to the 200 SMA. Anyway, if that happens, GBP/USD will remain bullish in our mid-term outlook as long as it stays above that moving average. However, if the pair does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5775, it will reach the level of 1.5898.

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  13. #373
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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 25, 2015


    USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.5% to 13.26, S&P 500 closed 0.74% lower at 2,108.58 overnight) on renewed worries over Greece's debt crisis. After a list of economic measures, Greece said it was willing to undertake in exchange for financial aid, was rejected. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.7 bps to 2.372% Wednesday) and Japan's exports. But USD sentiment is soothed as the US Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from previous estimate of -0.7%. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

    Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is rising from oversold levels but the MACD is bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Wednesday.

    Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 125. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.95. The pivot point is at 124.15.

    Resistance levels: 124.60 125 125.45
    Support levels: 122.30 122.95 122.55

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 29, 2015

    When the European market opens, economic data on the Spanish Flash CPI y/y and German Prelim CPI m/m is due. The US will release economic data on the Pending Home Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1028.
    Strong Resistance:1.1022.
    Original Resistance: 1.1011.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1000.
    Target Inner Area: 1.0975.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.0950.
    Original Support: 1.0939.
    Strong Support: 1.0928.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.0922.

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  15. #375
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    Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 30, 2015

    GBP/USD closed the bearish gap. On the daily chart, we still can observe a test at the resistance level of 1.5755 and if the pair does a breakout over there, it would be expected to test the next key high around the level of 1.5898. Also, bulls are getting stronger, but bear in mind the current situation in Greece. At the H1 chart, GBP/USD has been trading sideways, but remains above the 200 SMA. The current situation in Greece makes us think about the possibility to take long positions at this stage. GBP/USD is expected to rally towards new highs, as 200 SMA provides dynamic support, but be cautious anyway.

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    Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 30, 2015

    GBP/USD closed the bearish gap. On the daily chart, we still can observe a test at the resistance level of 1.5755 and if the pair does a breakout over there, it would be expected to test the next key high around the level of 1.5898. Also, bulls are getting stronger, but bear in mind the current situation in Greece. At the H1 chart, GBP/USD has been trading sideways, but remains above the 200 SMA. The current situation in Greece makes us think about the possibility to take long positions at this stage. GBP/USD is expected to rally towards new highs, as 200 SMA provides dynamic support, but be cautious anyway.

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    EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

    In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index. The US is expected to unveil data on Total Vehicle Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with a medium volatility during the US session.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Resistance. 3: 123.17.
    Resistance. 2: 122.93.
    Resistance. 1: 122.69.
    Support. 1: 122.40.
    Support. 2: 122.16.
    Support. 3: 121.92.

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  18. #378
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    EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

    In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index. The US is expected to unveil data on Total Vehicle Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with a medium volatility during the US session.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Resistance. 3: 123.17.
    Resistance. 2: 122.93.
    Resistance. 1: 122.69.
    Support. 1: 122.40.
    Support. 2: 122.16.
    Support. 3: 121.92.

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    Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 02, 2015

    Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4770 after testing resistance at 1.4800 levels yesterday. Please note that the pair has produced a bearish evening star candlestick pattern indicating a potential pullback lower. It seems that the first leg of a rally from the level of 1.4150 havebeen finished and a corrective drop towards 1.4400 should take place soon. It is recommended to remain short with risk at 1.4830. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500/50 followed by 1.4400 and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4800 and higher respectively.

    Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4830, a target is 1.4400.

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    Daily analysis of major pairs for July 6, 2015

    EUR/USD: The market is berish now and the price is expected to continue going further downwards. It should be able to test at least the support level of 1.1000 and 1.0950 this week. Only a movement above the resistance line at 1.1400 could render this expectation invalid.

    USD/CHF: Following the severe bearish plunge that happened on June 29, the USD/CHF pair has vividly rallied. The price has gone upwards by 250 pips from the support level at 0.9250, testing the resistance level at 0.9500. There is currently a shallow bearish retracement in the market but the resistance level of 0.9500 could be tested again, and eventually breached to the upside. When the price goes below the support of 0.9250, the existing bullish outlook would be useless.

    GBP/USD: As forecasted, the GBP/USD pair broke below the distribution territory of 1.5650 testing the recalcitrant accumulation territory around 1.5600. The recent equilibrium phase is over, and it has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. There is a possibility that this is the beginning of a protracted downtrend.

    USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair provides short-term traders and scalpers with an opportunuty to thrive. There have been short-term swings in the market as the oscillates between the supply level of 124.00 and the demand level of 122.00. The market calls for a break above the aforementioned supply level or demand level before there could be strong directional movement.

    EUR/JPY: We expext significant strengthening in the euro to cause the instrument to skyrocket this week; whereas, any serious weakness in the euro would cause it to plummet.

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