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  1. #321
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    Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 26, 2015




    Overview: The USD/CHF pair is calling for the bullish market from the levels of 0.9089, 0.9300, and 0.9405 since last week. Nowadays, the level of 0.9405 is representing support 1. Moreover, it should be noticed that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the first support and first resistance which are setting at the 0.9405 and 0.9595 prices respectively. As it is known, the chronicle will probably repeat itself at these levels again. Therefore, as the upward trend is still strong on H4 chart, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.9405 with the first target of 0.9522 (minor resistance on the same chart). It will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.9595 in coming days. Also, we should bear in mind that the strong resistance (0.9595) is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, a stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the stop loss should be placed below the support of 0.9405 at the price of 0.9372.

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  2. #322
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    Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 27, 2015

    Overview: The market of the USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break level of 1.2402. Besides, resistance of the USD/CAD pair broke and turned to support a month ago (26th of January 2015). It should be noted that the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.2402. Hence, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2400/1.2390 with a first target at 1.2533 and continues towards 1.2594 which represents strong resistance on February 27, 2015. However, according to previous events, the price has still traded between 1.2402 and 1.2594. Thereupon, if the trend can break this level and close below the price of 1.2390, then we expect the market to gain a convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. For that reason, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.2594. As the price is below 1.2594, look for further downside with a target of 1.2420.

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  3. #323
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 02, 2015

    When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Besides, the US will release a number of economic reports such as the ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1221.
    Strong Resistance:1.1215.
    Original Resistance: 1.1204.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1193.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1167.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1141.
    Original Support: 1.1130.
    Strong Support: 1.1119.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1113.


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  4. #324
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    Daily analysis of major pairs for March 3, 2015


    EUR/USD: This pair is still bearish in outlook, and is not yet able to go upwards significantly, following a strong bearish run that happened at the end of last week. As long as this pair is weak, the USD/CHF (which normally gets negatively correlated to the EUR/USD) would not be able to go downwards. The price is currently between the support line at 1.1150 and the resistance line at 1.1200. The support line is likely to be breached to the downside but the price may be unable to close below it, because the outlook on the EUR is upbeat.

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  5. #325
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 04, 2015

    When the European market opens, economic data on retail sales m/m, the final services PMI, the Italian services PMI, and the Spanish services PMI will be released.The US is expected to release economic data on the Beige Book, crude oil inventories, the ISM mon-manufacturing PMI, the final services PMI, and the ADP non-farm employment change. So, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day amid the reports.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1234.
    Strong Resistance:1.1228.
    Original Resistance: 1.1217.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1206.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1180.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1154.
    Original Support: 1.1143.
    Strong Support: 1.1132.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1126.

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  6. #326
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 05, 2015

    When the European market opens, economic data on the ECB press conference, minimum bid rate, the French 10-y bond auction, the retail PMI, and the German factory orders m/m are expected to be released. The US will announce the infotmation about natural gas storage, factory orders m/m, revised unit labor costs q/q, the revised nonfarm productivity q/q, unemployment claims, and Challenger job cuts y/y. So, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day amid reports.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1133.
    Strong Resistance:1.1127.
    Original Resistance: 1.1116.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1105.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1079
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1053.
    Original Support: 1.1042.
    Strong Support: 1.1031.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1025.

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  7. #327
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 9 - 2015


    Technical summary: The decline towards an ideal downside target for wave (v) of C continues to unfold as expected. In the short term, we are looking for moving lower towards 129.64 and perhaps even lower towards 128.69 in blue wave iii. As we have seen a series of waves one and two, a series of waves three and four should unfold accordingly. Ideally, a minor resistance at 131.88 is likely to protect the upside from the expected decline towards 129.64

    Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 133.90 and will lower our stop to 132.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell EUR near 131.88 with the same stop at 132.45.

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  8. #328
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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 11, 2015

    In Asia, Japan will release the PPI y/y and core machinery orders m/m. The US is expected to release some economic data about bank stress test results, the Federal budget balance, and results of 10-year bond auction. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 121.90. Resistance. 2: 121.66. Resistance. 1: 121.42. Support. 1: 121.13. Support. 2: 120.89. Support. 3: 120.65.


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  9. #329
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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 17, 2015


    In Asia, Japan will release the results of the BOJ press conference and monetary policy statement. The US is expected to publish economic data about housing starts and building permits. So, there is a big probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 122.07. Resistance. 2: 121.83. Resistance. 1: 121.60. Support. 1: 121.31. Support. 2: 121.07. Support. 3: 120.83.


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  10. #330
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    Technical analysis and trading recommendation of GBP/YEN for March 18, 2015

    After release of the BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes, the yen was trading higher against the pound. The cross erased its Monday's gains. It has been consolidating near the fate/fortune level. It's a big day for the US and UK. At the today's Asian session, the pound is trading higher against USD and JPY ahead of crucial big data. The cross is trading in the support zone around 177.95 and 177.80, 200Dema, and 200Dsma respectively. Monthly support is found at 176.70 50Wsma. Weekly resistance is seen at 181.50 and 181.65. The panic will be triggered in case the price closes below 177.80. The cross closes below 50Dsma, so the near and short-term outlooks remain bearish. On a weekly basis, the cross closes below 20Wsma and is trading below it. Until the price closes below 180.50, the bearish view remains in play. Intraday resistance is seen at 179.50. Intraday support is found at 179.60 and 179.10. Trade: selling below 179.60 with targets at 179.10,178.90 and 178.70. Panic below 177.80. Levels to watch- 177.95 177.80 last hope at 177.60. These are valid for this week.


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  11. #331
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 23, 2015

    Technical summary: The decline from 1.4631 (the top of wave iv) has already broken below a low of wave iii at 1.4289 confirming that wave v lower to 1.4079 is unfolding. In the short term, the minor resistance at 1.4340 should protect the upside for a decline towards 1.4079. A break above 1.4340 is going to confuse the picture, but only a break above resistance at 1.4425 is likely to indicate that the bottom is in place.

    Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 1.4545 and will move our stop lower to 1.4345. We are late in the decline, but it should be possible to sell near 1.4300 with a stop place at 1.4345 for a decline to 1.4079.

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  12. #332
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    Daily analysis of major pairs for March 24, 2015

    EUR/USD: This pair moved upwards by 150 pips on Monday, hitting the resistance line at 1.0950 before a shallow pullback. The resistance line would be overcome soon as the market targets another resistance line at 1.1000, which may also be breached easily as the market continues to be strong.

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  13. #333
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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2015

    In Asia, Japan is not going to release any economic data. However, the US is expected to publish data on Natural Gas Storage, the flash services PMI, and the number of unemployment claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

    TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
    Resistance. 3: 119.96.
    Resistance. 2: 119.73.
    Resistance. 1: 119.49.
    Support. 1: 119.20.
    Support. 2: 118.97.
    Support. 3: 118.73.

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  14. #334
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    Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2015

    Overview: The NZD/USD pair is likely to continue straight from 0.7515. Support at 0.7515 coincides with ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 chart. Additionally, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same level. Therefore, the kiwi shows signs of strength following the break through the highest levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550. So, it is going to be a good sign to buy above the support levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550 with the first target at 0.7603 in order to retest a weekly pivot point and further 0.9636 (it will act as strong resistance, it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that the level to take profit will coincide at 88.2% of Fibonacci at the same time frame). It should be noted that another resistance is set at the level of 0.7696, which represents the double bottom. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level at 0.7550, the market will be led to further decline to 0.7466 in order to indicate the bearish market on March 27, 2015.

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  15. #335
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    Euro Area Is Gaining Momentum

    Recent euro-area data releases have consistently surprised to the upside, adding to evidence that the region's recovery is gaining momentum, according to Standard Chartered research notes. Consumption and net exports are likely to be driving growth in Q1, when GDP growth could reach as high as 0.5% q/q, and the conditions are in place for a sustained investment improvement after a prolonged downturn. The euro-area PMI composite has risen to 54.1 in March, the highest since May 2011. France and Italy remain the weakest major economies, but there are bright spots in both countries, with GDP growth likely to pick up from a dismal Q4-2014 in both cases. Meanwhile, Germany is off to a strong start and is likely to pull along some of its smaller neighbours. German companies are benefitting from a more competitive euro, and across the euro area growth of new orders for goods exports has hit an eight-month high, according to Markit. Consumption is also strengthening. Euro-area retail sales were up 3.7% y/y in January, the strongest annual increase since 2005. Consumer confidence is at the highest level since 2007 on the back of higher real disposable incomes, due to stronger earnings growth, the lower oil price and generally low inflation. Meanwhile Germany's labour market is strong, and immigration and a higher minimum wage should boost consumer spending. Across the euro area unemployment is falling, albeit from high levels in some countries. Bank lending data also point to a more supportive growth environment. The downtrend of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for sales and securitisation) eased further, reaching -0.4% y/y in February. Standard Chartered research forecasts that "this trend will continue and we will very soon see positive y/y growth in loans to corporations. Loans to households, which usually recover earlier than loans to corporations, were up 1% y/y in February, continuing the uptrend that begun around the middle of 2014. Moreover, the third targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) take-up was strong at EUR 97bn, a signal that banks expect demand for loans to pick up. TLTRO loans are particularly helpful for banks in the periphery." Greece, which was one of the best performers in 2014, has deteriorated very fast due to political uncertainty. The key risk for the euro area's recovery remains a sentiment deterioration, either over Greece or eastern Ukraine. Ongoing reform discussions with Greece are reaching a critical stage, with Athens due to run out of money over the next month unless bailout funds are released. In Ukraine, tensions have deescalated since the truce, but the situation remains sensitive

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  16. #336
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 30 - 2015

    Technical summary We are still looking for a close above the resistance line on the 4-hourly chart to confirm that a series of wave three is developing for a rally towards at least 1.4595. In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.4397 is going to be the first indication that resistance at 1.4495 is likely to be challenged again and a break above here should bring an acceleration higher than we are looking for. Only an unexpected break below support at 1.4287 will confuse the overall bullish picture.

    Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.4335 and will place our stop at 1.4275


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  17. #337
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    Daily analysis of USDX for April 06, 2015

    The daily chart continues to show us a corrective phase of the USDX, as the index continues to move in favor of the bearish side but a corrective one as we mentioned above. The next floor or support zone is located at the level of 96.60, where we could expect a rebound to the resistance zone around 98.01. By the way, the bullish outlook is still alive. The USDX started this week with a deep bearish gap, which is now looking for support at the level of 96.54, more than 100 pips of empty zone. Now, the nearest resistance level is located around 97.08, where the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern in order to reach the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. But the Index is still with the downside risk in the short term.

    Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12
    Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.19
    H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.08 / 97.30
    H1 chart's support levels: 96.54 / 96.25

    Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.08, take profit is at 97.30, and stop loss is at 96.85.

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  18. #338
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    Technical analysis of Silver for April 07, 2015

    Technical outlook and chart setups:
    Silver has dropped below the level of $17.00 as we discussed and expected earlier. The metal could still be unfolding its counter trend correction and push lower towards $16.00 before resuming rally. It is recommended to remain short with risk at the levels $17.50/60. A drop below $16.60 from here is likely to confirm the same. Immediate support is seen at $16.50/60 followed by $15.80 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $17.80/85 and higher respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control untill prices stay below $17.40/50.

    Trading recommendations:
    Remain short, stop at $17.50/60, target $16.00.


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  19. #339
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    Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 08, 2015

    Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be supported well around the level of 130.00 for now. The pair is seen to initiate/resume rally higher, and a break above 131.50 is likely to encourage bulls to go forward. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% positions now with risk at 128.50. Immediate support is seen at 128.50 followed by 128.00, 127.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 131.50 followed by 133.00 and higher respectively. Bulls shall look to remain in control untill prices stay above 128.50.

    Trading recommendations: Initiate 50% long positions, stop at 128.50, target is open.


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  20. #340
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    Technical analysis and trading recommendation for Gold for April 10, 2015

    The yellow metal has been extending its losses for three consecutive days. The US dollar rebounded from the lower levels, which dampened the momentum of the metal. After the FOMC minutes, the metal broke the 50Dsma and closed below that. At the FOMC meeting, several participants judged that economic data and outlook were likely to warrant normalization. However, others anticipated that the effects of lower energy prices and the depressed dollar would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions are unlikely to be appropriate for rates hike until later in the year. A couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook would not call for any increase until 2016. Eventually, the interest rate hike is imminent, but the matter is when it comes true. The interest rate hike has a negative influence on the metal. Today, the metal successfully held the previous day's low at the Asian session. Prices are consolidating at $1,192.00 for a day. Below this, 20Dsma is likely to appear at $1,187.00. The trend-change decider level is found at $1,178.00. In case of a daily close below $1,178.00, the current upswing will be cancelled. Intraday support is found at $1,192.00. We recommend selling below $1,192.00 with immediate target at $1,188.00, below $1,187.00 we can expect $1,180.00 and $1,178.00. The panic is going to be triggered below $1,178.00. In the H4 chart, the price fell below the ascending trend line and closed below that. In the hourly chart, we can observe lower highs and lower lows formation. Until the price closes below $1,206.00, the near term favors bears. Trade: Selling below $1,192.00 targets $1,188.00, $1,180.00 and $1,179.00


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