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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 22, 2024


Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.0860 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) to 1.0836, the historical support level (blue dotted line).

In the case of testing this level, an upward movement is possible, with a target of 1.0864, the 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.0860 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price may move downward to 1.0836, the historical support level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued downward movement is possible with a target of 1.0804, the 61.8% pullback level (blue dotted line).


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On Monday, the information background in Japan and the USA will be very weak. The impact of the information background on market sentiment for the rest of the day may be absent. Forecast for USD/JPY and trading recommendations: Selling the yen today may be considered upon rebound from 151.95 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 150.90 or upon closing below the ascending trend corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 149.86. Purchases were possible upon closing above 148.55 on the hourly chart and above 148.79 on the 4-hour chart, with targets at 149.66, 150.89, and 151.95. The first two targets have been reached, and waiting for the third target to be reached makes no sense.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on March 26



EUR/USD

Higher Timeframes At the opening of the new trading week, bullish players took the initiative. Yesterday, they slightly recovered their positions and executed a retest of the weekly levels (1.0829-39). Now, it is crucial what the outcome of the impending ascent will be. Perhaps the retest will conclude, and bears who took a pause will return to the market, or another scenario may prevail, wherein the bulls continue the ascent and test the accumulation zone of the next resistances at 1.0862 - 1.0876.

GBP/USD

Higher timeframes Bears failed to maintain their momentum; yesterday, the opponents seized the initiative. As a result, the pair returned to the daily cloud (1.2629-62). If bulls prevail in the current confrontation, plans for the liquidation of the death cross of the daily Ichimoku cloud will become relevant again; the levels of the cross can now be marked at the boundaries of 1.2698 - 1.2733 - 1.2771. Currently, the strengthening is represented by the weekly short-term trend (1.2705). If bears regain their momentum in the market, they will have to start with a new attempt to test the support zone at 1.2589 - 1.2566 - 1.2582, which combines monthly and weekly levels.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 27th. The ECB is fully prepared for easing in June

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly with low volatility. During the day, the moving average line was tested, but the downward trend remains intact. Even if there is a confident breakthrough of the moving average, it will not signify the beginning of a new upward trend.

It's worth noting that on the 24-hour TF, the technical picture allows no room for double interpretation. Initially, we saw a strong correction against the new downward trend, followed by a weak correction within the framework of this same downward trend. Thus, the decline of the pair should resume almost in any case. Of course, phrases like "should resume" or "in any case" are unsuitable for the currency market. The point is that market makers dominate the market, often making trading decisions regardless of their fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds.

However, we pay attention to news and reports, as many market participants do. With the same success, one could say that market makers pay no attention to technical analysis, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be used now. Therefore, with careful analysis, it becomes clear that, according to common sense and logic, the European currency should continue to decline.

However, only some can command major players to sell euros and buy dollars. Hence, any forecast carries only a certain probability of execution. As long as the price remains below the 4-hour TF moving average and below the Ichimoku indicator lines on the 24-hour TF, it's evident that a resumption of the decline is more likely. Regarding the fundamental background, several ECB representatives spoke during the first two days of the week.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday March 28 2024.

Although on the 4 hour chart of Nasdaq 100 index is moving sideways and ranging, but with the price movement breaking down WMA 20 Shift 2 followed by the appearance of the Bearish 123 pattern followed by several Bearish Ross Hooks (RH) gives an indication that in the near future #NDX has the potential to weaken down to level 18161.1 if this level is successful If it is broken below, #NDX has the potential to continue its decline to the level of 17996.8 as the main target and if the momentum and volatility are supportive then the next level to be aimed at is 17816.8, but if on its way to the target levels mentioned suddenly there will be a correction strengthening, especially if the strengthening correction succeeds in breaking above level 18398.3, then all the downside scenarios that have been described earlier will become invalid and cancel automatically.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 29, 2024


EUR/USD Yesterday was a good day for the dollar: the final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter was revised upwards from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y, while the UK GDP contracted by 0.3%, and retail sales in Germany decreased by 1.9%. Today, markets in Europe, the US, and Canada are closed for a holiday, which will contribute to the lackluster price action. From a technical perspective, this allows the price to consolidate below the level of 1.0796 on the daily chart, even if the pair ends the day with gains, it wouldn't even exceed 7 pips. In fact, the target of 1.0724 is already open. The second target is 1.0632.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has already consolidated below the level of 1.0796. The Marlin oscillator is declining in the downtrend territory. The price still hasn't managed to rise above the balance indicator line. The downtrend remains intact. Despite the holiday, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak about monetary policy in San Francisco.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on April 1, 2024

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.2622 (closing of Friday's daily candle) to the 23.6% pullback level at 1.2649 (red dotted line). If this level is reached, a continued upward movement is likely possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.2733 (red dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2622 (closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may move upward to the 61.8% pullback level at 1.2661 (yellow dotted line). If this level is reached, a downward movement is possible to the 23.6% pullback level at 1.2649 (red dotted line).


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 2nd. The British pound continues to ignore the fundamental background

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade in a flat over the 24-hour timeframe. We still expect movements to the south, now with targets at 1.2512 and 1.2489, and the market still extremely reluctantly buys the dollar and sells the pound, often ignoring the fundamental and macroeconomic background. Thus, first, the flat needs to end, and then analyze the technical picture for trading signals. Monday should not mislead traders into believing in the pound's decline. Explanations for illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or overbought zone (above +250) indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 3

Higher Timeframes At the close of the previous session, the attraction of the weekly support (1.2577) managed to halt the decline and return the market to its influence zone. Therefore, if bearish players want to continue the decline, the targets of which were detailed in yesterday's review, they first need to overcome the attraction and influence of the weekly support at 1.2577. However, if bullish players continue restoring their positions now, the market will first encounter resistance from the daily short-term trend (1.2606), and then the daily cloud may come into play (1.2637 - 1.2671).

H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the pair continues to work within a correction zone. Currently, the central pivot point of the day (1.2563) is being used as support. The next supports during intraday decline will be the classic pivot points S1 (1.2548) - S2 (1.2524) - S3 (1.2509). A change in intraday priorities may occur upon the breakthrough and reversal of the weekly long-term trend (1.2601). To further strengthen bullish sentiments, the resistance levels of classic pivot points located above the trend will be crucial, with today's R3 (1.2626) being the reference point.

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The EUR/USD pair surged above the 1.0840 mark, against the logic of fundamental analysis. From a technical perspective, the volume of long positions could have increased after the price upwardly breached the 1.0800 level. On the 30M, 1H and 4H charts, the RSI technical indicator shows signs of the euro's overbought conditions. On the 4-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards. It changed direction when the price suddenly jumped.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on April 5 (US session)

Analysis of transactions and trading tips on USD/JPY Further growth became limited as the test of 151.40 coincided with the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. Dollar bulls took advantage of the morning dip, but everything could change upon the release of US data. Weak figures on the growth of new jobs will lead to a decline in USD/JPY, which could end with a retest of weekly lows. Strong statistics, on the other hand, will quickly push the pair back towards the yearly high, although that may be unlikely. FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman will also speak today.

For long positions: Buy when the price hits 151.52 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 152.14. Growth will occur after strong reports from the US and hawkish statements from Fed representatives. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 151.28, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 151.52 and 152.14. For short positions: Sell when the price reaches 151.28 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 150.63. Pressure will return in the case of poor labor market data. When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 151.52, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 151.28 and 150.63.

What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. April 8th. Preparations for the ECB meeting are in full swing



The EUR/USD pair dropped to the support zone of 1.0785–1.0801 on Friday, rebounded from it, and resumed the upward process towards the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%–1.0866. A new rebound from this level will again benefit the US dollar, as will a return to the zone of 1.0785–1.0801. Consolidation of the pair's rate below this zone will increase the probability of further decline towards the Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.0696. In my opinion, the option with a decline remains the most consistent.

The wave situation remains quite clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from March 19th), and the new upward wave has not yet approached the last peak (from March 21st). Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the current upward wave must break the current last peak (from March 21st). If the new downward wave fails to break the low from April 2nd, this will also be a sign of the end of the "bearish" trend. The news background on Friday was very strong and extensive. It all started with the report on retail trade in the European Union. Volumes decreased by 0.5% m/m and by 0.7% y/y. Thus, from the very morning on, bears had reasons to counterattack. Next, in the United States, three reports on the labor market, unemployment, and wages were released, which also supported the bears, but the zone of 1.0785–1.0801 proved to be an insurmountable obstacle for them. This week will see the ECB's third meeting this year. I expect that interest rates will not be changed, but Christine Lagarde's statements will indicate that the regulator will be ready to lower rates at the next meeting. It's difficult to say whether the strengthening of the ECB's "dovish" sentiment will help the bears, as the market has long understood that the first easing of monetary policy awaits it in June. But once again, the news background will be on the side of sellers.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on April 9, 2024

USD/JPY


The USD/JPY pair covered the entire range of target levels 150.80-151.95 in two days. On Friday, the price turned upwards from the balance line (red moving average) and from the level of 150.80. This morning, the upper boundary of the range and the embedded line of the global price channel (blue) have been tested.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is directed upwards in the positive territory. Consolidating above 151.95 will pave the way for the price to hit the target level of 154.25. A downward movement is possible after the price breaks through 150.80. The pair has a good potential to rise.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance indicator line, testing resistance at 151.95. The Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend territory. Consolidating above 151.95 opens the nearest target along the MACD line at 152.45. Surpassing yesterday's low at 151.58 will relieve the bullish pressure and shift the focus to 150.80.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD on April 10. USD does not rely on traders' support

Hi, dear traders! On the 1-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rose to the resistance zone of 1.2705–1.2715 and rebounded from it on Tuesday. The instrument made a reversal in favor of the US dollar. This allows us to expect some decline in the direction of the support zon

The situation with waves recently has not raised any questions. The last completed bearish wave easily broke the last low (from March 19), and the new bullish wave is not yet strong enough to break through the last high from March 21. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair is bearish, and there are no signs of its end. The first sign of the bulls going on the offensive could be a breakout of the high from March 21. But to reach the 1.2788-1.2801 zone, the bulls need to cover a distance of about 140 pips, which is unlikely to happen in the coming days. If a new downward wave does not break the low of April 1, this will also be a sign of a change in the trend to bullish, but this wave has not even begun yet. There was no important news for the pound sterling and the US dollar on Tuesday. However, today a crucial report on inflation will be released in the US, which is already causing conflicting sentiment. On the one hand, inflation may accelerate again, which will arouse another wave of hawkish comments from FOMC policymakers. Any increase in hawkish expectations provides support to the US dollar, which has been going through hard times in recent months. On the other hand, the greenback did not grow in response to the US nonfarm payrolls released last week. Besides, the US dollar ignores the fact that the number of potential rate cuts in 2024 has been steadily declining. Last but not least, the US currency do

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the British pound after forming a bullish divergence at the RSI indicator and consolidation above the level of 1.2620. However, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator enables us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some fall in the instrument. In my opinion, it will be short-lived. The bearish trend remains on the 1-hour chart, but on the 4-hour chart, the horizontal movement is going on.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair on April 11, 2024

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade in a flat on the 24-hour timeframe, which is the most important thing. We still expect movement to the south, but below the level of 1.2500, the pair has not been able to break out for 4 months already. Therefore, the flat must be completed first, and only then should the technical picture be analyzed for trading signals to form a new trend. And yesterday's decline in quotes by 200 points fundamentally changes nothing yet. Purchases of the pair are possible if the price fails to overcome the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Then the target will again be the level of 1.2800. But we believe that the time to end the flat has come. Illustration notes: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on April 12 (US session)

Analysis of transactions and trading tips on EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0702 occurred during the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero. CPI data in France and Germany coincided with forecasts, indicating that everything proceeds according to the plan of the ECB. In fact, it said it intends to lower interest rates in June. In the afternoon, consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations will come out, but regardless of the data released, euro will have a chance for an upward correction, so be cautious with selling at current lows.

For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0678 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0725. Growth will occur after very poor statistics from the US. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0646, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0678 and 1.0595. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0646 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0595. Pressure will return in the case of strong data from the US. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0678, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0646 and 1.0595.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 15

EUR/USD

Higher Timeframes Last week had a pronounced bearish character due to the significant downward momentum. Bears approached the influence zone of the monthly support at 1.0611, so the results of testing and interaction may determine further priorities and opportunities. The levels passed today act as supports, but due to the remote location (1.0755), they are unlikely to be relevant in the near future.

H4 - H1 The main advantage on the lower timeframes currently belongs to the bearish players. However, the pair is trading within an upward correction zone, now testing the central pivot point (1.0665). The next resistance in the development of the correction today can be noted at 1.0706 (R1), but the meeting with the weekly long-term trend (1.0771), which governs the current balance of power, will be of greater significance. A breakout and reversal of the trend could change the market's preferences. If the current correction is completed and the pair returns to the downward trend's development, the bears' focus will be on passing through the supports of classic pivot points (1.0599 - 1.0558 - 1.0492).

GBP/USD

Higher Timeframes Last week, bearish players managed to assert themselves by closing the week below the current supports (1.2464 - 1.2481 - 1.2503). The main task now is to maintain the achieved level. The next bearish target on the higher timeframes is the final level of the golden cross of the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.2383). For bullish players to re-enter the market under current conditions, they need to form a rebound from the encountered support zone (1.2464 - 1.2481 - 1.2503)



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 16. Simple tips for beginners

Take note that a significant event occurred last week – the pair left the 4-month sideways channel and may now begin forming a strong downtrend. There were concerns that the new week would start with another illogical rise from the pound, but so far they have not been justified.

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