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  1. #1101
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    Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/07/2019:

    Technical Market Overview:
    The GBP/USD pair has broken through the technical support at the levels of 1.2559, 1.2529 and 1.2505 on its way down to the new swing low made at the level of 1.2476. As we can see the price is now out of the descending channel, which is a very bearish sign. There is a Pin Bar made at the new swing low at the level of 1.2476, but so far there is not much bullish pressure on the market and the bears are still in full control of the market. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2559 and it might be tested soon due to the oversold market conditions.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2853
    WR2 - 1.2772
    WR1 - 1.2630
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2551
    WS1 - 1.2402
    WS2 - 1.2319
    WS3 - 1.2180

    Trading Recommendations:
    The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2431 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 22, 2019

    USD / JPY pair
    The technical picture of our last review (July 18) was fully realized. The price worked out the range 107.35 / 87 indicated with a gray rectangle on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the same scale has once again touched the generator line of convergence. This creates a double convergence, after which it returned above the signal level 107.87.

    On the daily chart, the departure of the signal line is under the border with the territory of decline. Also, according to our forecast, it turned out to be false. At the moment, Marlin's daily is already in the growth zone. The price is higher than the indicator line of balance, which indicates a shift in the price balance to the upside over the past 90 days based on the calculations by the indicator. Its immediate goal is the area of the MACD line and the price channel line of 108.70. The price yield above the resistance opens up the prospect of growth to the upper line of the channel at 109.70.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Forecast for AUD / USD pair on July 23, 2019

    AUD / USD pair
    The Australian dollar is falling for the third day. we decided to update the price channels: the dark blue channel of the daily scale chart and the red channel of weekly. The convergence of the daily timeframe proved to be effective and the Marlin oscillator signal line clearly intends to move to the zone of decline. The immediate goal of the "Australian" is 0.6945, which averaged estimate of support for the price channel line and the MACD indicator line.

    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line after convergence is already in the zone of decline. The price went below the balance line and MACD this morning. We are waiting for the price in the area of the specified goal at 0.6945.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  4. #1104
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    Control zones AUDUSD 07.25.19

    Today's trading plan should take into account the approach of the pair to the average value of the weekly move. Sellers need to close a short position and expect a corrective pullback. The test of the average move can allow to obtain favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument in the case of the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern of yesterday's minimum.

    The probability of closing trades within the average move is 70%, so sales near the zone are not profitable. It is necessary to take into account that the descending model remains a priority, as the weekly CZ of 0.6946-0.6933 has not yet been reached. An alternative model will be to go beyond the average weekly turn for the test of the specified zone. This will allow to get favorable prices for the purchase of a tool, since the probability of returning to the middle course is 90%.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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    Control zones for Bitcoin on 07/30/19

    Yesterday, Bitcoin has dropped to $ 9000. This allowed us to re-test the monthly minimum. The response to the test was an increase in demand. This makes it possible to indicate that there are limit buyers within the monthly minimum. While levels from 9000 and above are saturated with buyers, a further decrease remains unlikely. Thus, the likelihood of continued movement within the medium-term flat increases.

    It is also important to note that Bitcoin went beyond the monthly control zone. This makes it possible to search for purchases in the direction of return, since the probability of return is 90%.

    When building a trading plan, it is important to note that throughout the past week, the pair has been trading below the level of balance. Today, the situation is similar, so the movement towards yesterday's high will be decisive. If the price is kept below the balance, the probability of updating the monthly minimum will be more than 50%. To break the downward impulse, it will be necessary to consolidate above the balance mark

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    EUR/USD. Useless Nonfarms: Trump made traders turn away from macroeconomic reports

    Data on the growth of the US labor market could not support the dollar, which rather unexpectedly came under pressure from an external fundamental background. Another escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has mixed all the cards with dollar bulls. After all, at the end of the July Fed meeting, traders had the confidence that the regulator would limit itself to one round of rate cuts, as a precautionary measure. However, after the release of an extremely weak ISM index in the manufacturing sector, as well as after a resonant statement by Donald Trump, concerns about the Fed's next steps returned to the market.

    The market clearly focused on geopolitical events, as it completely ignored one of the key macroeconomic indicators, Nonfarms. Although this release was supposed to support a further rally in the US currency: the US labor market continues to recover, demonstrating the growth of the main components. Thus, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by 164,000 (which fully coincided with the forecast), while the unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.7%. The number of people employed in the manufacturing sector of the economy increased by 16 thousand (a positive trend for the 2nd month in a row). The growth rate of the average hourly wage also pleased investors: in annual terms, the indicator rose to 3.2% (for the first time since April), and in monthly terms, the component rose to 0.3% (at this level, the indicator goes for the third month in a row). Thus, the July data completely offset concerns about the dynamics of growth in the US labor market, although this issue was on the agenda this spring, both among investors and members of the US regulator.

    It is likely that after the release of Friday's data, EUR/USD bears would try to enter the ninth figure area or at least try to test a strong support level of 1.0980 (lower Kumo cloud boundary on the monthly chart) - but an unexpected move by the US president ruined the plans of the dollar bulls. When trading was about to close, the pair approached the first resistance level of 1.1120 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), and if the growth of anti-risk sentiment continues, then the bulls will be able to develop further correction - up to the levels of 1.1190 and 1.1220 (middle line BB and Kijun-sen line on D1).

    Here it is worth noting that on Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has already accused Donald Trump of violating the June agreement with Xi Jinping, promising to use "countermeasures". It is likely that this week we will find out what measures we are talking about. Strengthening the US-China conflict will put pressure on the dollar, since the escalation of trade war is seen by the market through the prism of prospects for further easing of the Fed's monetary policy.

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    Forecast for GBP/USD on August 13, 2019

    GBP/USD
    On Monday, the pound sterling slightly adjusted the top from strong technical support of the range of 1.1986-1.2032, corresponding to the lows of January 2017 and October 2016, and coinciding with the Fibonacci levels of the daily chart of 271.0% and 261.8%.

    Convergence on the Marlin oscillator formed on the daily chart. Whether this pattern turns out to be a sign of a deeper correction, to the Fibonacci levels of 238.2%, at the price of 1.2154 or 223.6% at the price of 1.2230, or will it turn out to be a false signal and the price will consolidate at 1.1986, it will become clear either today after the release of data on employment in the UK or tomorrow, with the release of inflation indicators. According to today's data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, applications for unemployment benefits in July may be slightly less than in the previous month - 32.0 thousand against 38.0 thousand. Inflation forecasts on Wednesday are negative, in particular CPI may drop from 2.0% y/y to 1.9% y/y.

    On the four-hour chart, the price is steadily falling below the blue MACD indicator line, while the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. The current situation is neutral, we are waiting for the development of events.

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    Control zones Bitcoin 08/19/19

    Bitcoin is trading above the balance level for the second day. This became possible after stopping the fall during the test of monthly control zone in August. The middle course zone was also tested at the end of last week. The likelihood of an increase in the value of bitcoin increases. You should not expect a sharp increase in the price, however, while the balance marks are below the course, you should keep the purchases open at the end of last week. Sales can be closed completely, since the probability of falling below the level of $10,000 in August is 30%.

    Favorable price for the purchase of the instrument will be at any level below $10,000. The first growth goal can be considered at the $10,749 mark. When bitcoin reaches this level, a partial consolidation of purchases and the transfer of the rest to breakeven will be required.

    An alternative model has a probability of implementation below 30%, which does not make it possible to enter sales. The instrument is trading near the monthly control zone. This makes a further decline unlikely. If the decline occurs below $10,000, then the probability of a return to this mark in August will be at 70%, and in case of exit and closing of the month's trading below this level, the probability will increase to 90%.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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    Control zones GBPUSD 08/20/19

    Today's plan is to bring purchases previously opened to WCZ 1/2 1.2199-1.2182. When testing the zone, consolidating part of the position will be required, and the rest should be brought to breakeven. The main pattern for entering the position will be the "false breakdown" of yesterday's high after the WCZ 1/2 test. If this happens, you must completely eliminate the purchase and enter a short position. The potential fall can reach a monthly low.

    Work in the upward direction is still a priority. Until WCZ 1/2 has been tested, another entry into purchases is possible in case of a "false breakdown" of yesterday's low. If this happens, there will be an opportunity to enter with a favorable risk to profit ratio.

    An alternative model will be developed if the pair overcomes the WCZ 1/2, and the closure of today's US session occurs above the zone. This will indicate the completion of the downward medium-term cycle and the transition to the phase of the upward impulse.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    GBP/USD. Light at the end of the tunnel: Merkel provoked the growth of the British currency

    The pound paired with the dollar today updated three-week highs, reaching the middle of the 22nd figure. The fundamental picture of today did not portend such price leaps: the European voyage of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was more of a formal nature, and Thursday's economic calendar for the GBP/USD pair is completely empty. Nevertheless, bulls of the pair found a reason for the upward impulse - and this reason was provided to them by none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the pound is now growing more on emotions - traders of the pair have been trading in constant fear and pessimism about the Brexit prospects for too long. Therefore, when among the gloomy news background a ghostly, but still "light at the end of the tunnel" had appeared, the pound's reaction was not long in coming. Moreover, at the beginning of today the head of the German government met her colleague from Britain with rather harsh rhetoric. She stated that "Britain has 30 days to resolve the Brexit issue to find an alternative to backstop." French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, noted that there is no more time for additional negotiations on a new agreement - the parties need to build on the main positions of the agreements already reached. Boris Johnson, in his peculiar manner, "accepted the challenge" of Berlin and said that he would spend 30 days allotted to him to convince the EU that there was a viable alternative to the "back-up" mechanism.

    Obviously, both London and Brussels are well aware of the risks they face. That is why the current (albeit symbolic) step of Merkel allowed the pound to demonstrate a significant correction throughout the market, including paired with the dollar. However, long positions on the GBP/USD pair currently look risky - after all, we must not forget that the parties only promised to "consider various options". And it is far from a fact that the proposed options will ultimately be agreed/approved by Johnson, the European Union and, ultimately, by the deputies of the House of Commons. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the spring of nervousness will continue to contract to a certain limit, putting pressure on the foot. But if the parties still find a compromise and the likelihood of a deal will increase again, this "spring" will fire an impulsive price increase, and marks 1.25-1.27 will not be any limit.

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    The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut

    Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.

    In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, of Powell's reluctance to take and reduce the rate immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later, there was a loud statement that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies having production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America.

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    TForecast for GBP / USD pair on August 28, 2019

    GBP / USD pair
    Yesterday, the growth of the pound negates the fall of Monday. However, on the daily chart, it met insurmountable resistance of the indicator line of the balance line (red), which is currently slightly below the indicator line of the MACD trend line (blue).

    A double divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal signal of the Marlin oscillator has amplified while the market is still "hot". The signal line of the oscillator is still in the growth zone and in fact, the price is higher than all indicator lines. On the daily chart, the price can gather strength and go on the assault to the second target of 1.2350/81. To fix the primary reversal signals, it is necessary to fix the price below the minimum of yesterday, which will also correspond to the price drift under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The MACD line of four-hour scale also tends to be at this level. Probably, a key level is being formed here. In case of a breakout, you should wait before sales.

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    Britain on the verge of a constitutional crisis

    The pound fell sharply by 100 points on the news that Boris Johnson could try to interrupt parliament for a month - from September 11 to October 14 - so that Parliament could not stop Johnson from withdrawing Britain out of the EU without an agreement.

    This is a constitutional crisis. The queen has such a right to suspend the work of the parliament, at the proposal of the prime minister. However, such an action on this occasion is a clear crisis. Given the minimal majority of conservatives in parliament - it is very likely - to have a political crisis and new elections.

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    Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19

    The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.

    The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans. To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex
    ]

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019

    Technical Market Overview:

    The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

    Weekly Pivot Points:

    WR3 - 1.1285
    WR2 - 1.1224
    WR1 - 1.1084
    Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025
    WS1 - 1.0886
    WS2 - 1.0818
    WS3 - 1.0681

    Trading Recommendations:

    The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    Golden cosmos

    Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

    The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.

    On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

    I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

    The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

    Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

    I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

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    Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019

    AUD / USD pair
    In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.

    For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2019

    EUR/USD

    On Friday and this Monday morning, the euro lingered on the resistance of the balance line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the daily scale. The euro is still calm about the price growth of oil and gold this morning due to an attack by drones on oil rigs in Saudi Arabia. Oil has jumped 9.56% since the opening of the session. According to media reports, oil production in this country fell by 50%, which seems unlikely. Nevertheless, an impetus has been set, and with the increase in oil prices, the euro is likely to continue to grow, the target of which will be the area where the line of the price channel, the Fibonacci level is 110.0% and the MACD line at the price of 1.1152.



    On a four-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance line (indicator red), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. In the framework of the main increasing scenario, the euro may drop, but not lower than the support of the MACD line on H4 (1.1023). Leaving below opens an alternative scenario with the prospect of a decline to 1.0926.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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    GBP/USD: the pound still hopes that the fog around Brexit will clear up

    Over the past week, the pound has strengthened against the US dollar by almost 1.2% amid expectations that London and Brussels may soften their position on Brexit.

    On Sunday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, said that he was still focused on concluding a deal with the European Union under the terms of the country's withdrawal from the bloc.

    "If we can make enough progress over the next few days, I intend to go to the EU summit on October 17 and conclude an agreement that will protect the interests of business and citizens both on both sides of the English channel and on both sides of the border in Ireland. I believe that we can do this, and I believe that such an agreement meets the interests of not only the UK, but also our European partners," said B. Johnson.

    At the same time, he continues to insist that he will not ask the EU to provide another delay for Brexit.

    In turn, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that there are no reasons for optimism about Brexit.

    "The UK has not provided any alternative proposals on the Irish border for a month and a half of the functioning of the new government and half a year from the moment when the bill, agreed with the 27 EU members, entered the British Parliament, but was never ratified by it. In the coming weeks, we should see whether the government of B. Johnson is able to make any proposals that have legal force," M. Barnier said.

    Recall that in Britain the law adopted by the country's Parliament came into force, according to which the government is obliged to ask the EU for a new deferral of Brexit if London and Brussels do not agree on a new agreement on withdrawal by October 19.

    B. Johnson intends to ignore the new law and is ready to fight for it in the British courts.

    Today, the British Prime Minister met with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg.

    "The leaders agreed on the need to negotiate more intensively on Brexit and start holding daily meetings of representatives of the parties. An agreement was also reached on political negotiations between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay. The dialogue between president Juncker and Prime Minister Johnson will also continue," the office of the head of the British government said in a statement.

    It is assumed that if the parties manage to reach a compromise, then the GBP/USD pair may well rise to the level of 1.2700.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Oil flies into the stratosphere

    Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?

    An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.


    One-day oil jumps

    According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.

    At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.

    Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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