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  1. #1021
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    Brexit: Scenarios of the movement of the British pound. May, Tusk and Juncker exchanged courtesies

    The euro fell in the first half of the day to the area of a minimum amid weak industrial production data, indicating the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth in 2018. A further bearish trend in the EUR/USD pair gets more real.

    Eurozone

    According to the report, industrial production in the eurozone in November last year declined more significantly than expected. As noted in Eurostat, industrial production in the euro area fell by 1.7% in November compared with October. This is the biggest drop since February 2016. Economists had expected a decline in production of 1.3%. Germany, where production fell by 1.9%, and Spain, where the decline was marked by 1.6%, were among the leaders in countries where production was falling the fastest.

    Thus, the decline in industrial production in many European countries only confirms the weakening of the global economy.

    The British pound continues its growth, which, apparently, is still more speculative. Traders positively perceived the information that the Prime Minister of Great Britain today sent a letter to Tusk and Juncker, in which she confirmed her intentions to carry out the decision made during the referendum. However, despite this, May is concerned about the fate of the Brexit deal, which is under threat due to concerns over Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister of Great Britain assured that the EU's concerns about the threat of a rigid border are groundless and negotiations will continue immediately after the vote in the UK. The focus of these negotiations will be on technology that will give up the guarantee of the absence of a rigid border.

    In turn, Juncker and Tusk responded to May in the same style, sending her a letter with assurances regarding the Brexit deal, but adding that they would not agree to anything that changes the agreement or does not correspond to it. Juncker also noted that the EU will quickly work on a trade agreement in order to avoid applying the guarantee of the absence of a rigid border in Ireland.

    All of these suggest that if the deal with the EU in the framework of a vote does not receive the support of parliamentarians tomorrow, the British pound may remain in the side channel until a final decision is reached since there are a lot of future development scenarios. Starting from the postponement of the exit of the UK from the EU, ending with indiscriminate exit without the adoption and approval of the basic laws.

    The prospect of complete abolition of Brexit also has a place to be that will support the British pound when information appears about the next referendum on this matter.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  2. #1022
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    EUR/USD. Spotlight on China and Brexit

    The economic calendar of the foreign exchange market is nearly empty today. Nevertheless, the most important release of the day caused quite a strong resonance among traders. We are talking about the publication of data on the state of China's foreign trade.

    The importance of this indicator is due to the general concern of investors about the slowdown in the world economy. Any facts that somehow confirm this concern have a strong impact on the dynamics of trading – both in the currency and stock market. Today's figures once again reminded the market of the consequences of the trade war, which is still ongoing, despite the intention of the parties to conclude a broad deal.

    The EUR/USD pair also cannot determine the vector of its movement. The dollar index drifted at the base of 95 points, and the European currency is under pressure from the uncertain prospects of Brexit and negative data on the growth of industrial production in the eurozone. The indicator came out much worse than expected: year-on-year at – 3.3% (with a forecast of -2.2%), and month-on-month at –1.7% (with a growth forecast of 0.3%). In France, this figure subsided due to long-term protests of "yellow vests" in Germany – because of problems in the automotive industry, and a general decline in the entire industry was recorded in Italy.

    Conflicting fundamental picture does not allow EURUSD to demonstrate a strong momentum, so traders have to bargain in a flat in anticipation of a strong infopovod. It is obvious that Brexit, or rather today's discussion of this issue in the British Parliament, will become such an occasion.

    At the moment, it is known that the European Union has sent a written appeal to London, which assures the British that the subsequent negotiations in the transition period will avoid the use of the backstop mechanism. In the evening, during Theresa May's speech to the Parliament, we will learn the details of this letter, and so far the market is in limbo – and regarding the prospects of the "divorce process", and regarding the prospects of the US-Chinese trade conflict.

    On the technical side, the EUR/USD bulls need to gain a foothold above 1.1530 to demonstrate their advantage. In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator on the daily chart will form a bullish "Parade of lines" signal , increasing the probability of price growth to the borders of the 16th figure. If the general interest in the risk fades, the pair may already return to the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, that is, to the level of 1.1410. A break of this level will send the pair to the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, that is, to the level of 1.1350.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  3. #1023
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    Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Jan 21, 2019

    Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Resistance. 3: 110.20.
    Resistance. 2: 109.98.
    Resistance. 1: 109.77.
    Support. 1: 109.50.
    Support. 2: 109.29.
    Support. 3: 109.07. (Disclaimer)

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  4. #1024
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    USD/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce

    The USD/JPY pair is approaching its support at 109.16 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 109.66 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
    Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 7.6% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
    USD/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.
    Buy above 109.16. Stop loss at 108.84. Take profit at 109.66.

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  5. #1025
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    NZD/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce

    NZD/USD is approaching its support at 0.6860 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.6936 (horizontal swing high resistance).
    Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 1.65% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
    NZD/USD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.
    Buy above 0.6860. Stop loss at 0.6796. Take profit at 0.6936.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  6. #1026
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 12, 2019

    When the European market opens, no economic data will be released. The US will publish the economic data such as JOLTS Job Openings and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1331.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1325.
    Original Resistance: 1.1314.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1303.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1277.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1251.
    Original Support: 1.1240.
    Strong Support: 1.1229.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1223.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  7. #1027
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    EUR/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce

    EUR/AUD is approaching its support at 1.5888 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1.5972 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

    Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 2.4% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

    EUR/AUD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

    Buy above 1.5888. Stop loss at 1.5845. Take profit at 1.5972.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  8. #1028
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 15, 2019

    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Trade Balance and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also publish the economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, and Empire State Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1340.
    Original Resistance: 1.1329.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1318.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1292.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1266.
    Original Support: 1.1255.
    Strong Support: 1.1244.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1238.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  9. #1029
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 18, 2019

    Today, when the European and the US markets open, no economic data will be released. So amid this condition, the EUR/USD pair will probably move with a low volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1340.
    Original Resistance: 1.1329.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1318.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1292.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1266.
    Original Support: 1.1255.
    Strong Support: 1.1244.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1238.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  10. #1030
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    Trump gave up the slack

    It seems that Donald Trump will not be able to achieve the desired in negotiations with the Chinese on trade. As usual, last weekend, he reported on his Twitter account that the negotiations were "productive" and he decided to extend the truce after March 1.

    In contrast to the American president, the Chinese side does not so vividly reflect the course of the negotiation process, I can even say it generally shows an enviable restraint of the "heavenly". The absence of any complete information from this side clearly indicates that there is no "productivity" in the negotiation process. Most likely, Trump has to back down and announce the continuation of the truce for this very reason, and he has more than enough reason for this.

    Last year, the active actions of the American president led to a "failure" in trade between the United States and China, and not only with the latter. The desire to solve all the problems by stifling pressure on competitors in world trade led to a slowdown in the growth of the economy of the PRC, a large Europe and the USA, which led to a general slowdown in the growth of the global economy.

    Trump, has not managed to solve the trade problem with China as a whole, and the desire to go to the second presidential term will force him to be more accommodating. Therefore, he will have to soften his position on this sensitive issue.

    Taking this into account, one can expect that optimism with a new force will overwhelm the world markets, which will lead to the continuation of local growth in stock markets, while the US dollar will remain under noticeable pressure. The overall demand for risky assets, as well as the expectation that the Fed will not raise interest rates in the current year and even go to stop reducing the balance, will adversely affect the rate of the US currency. In many ways, the positive theme has already been played on the foreign exchange market. That is why in this situation, we also do not expect a noticeable strong growth in the currencies of competitors, since a truce does not solve all problems, but only pushes them away in time and it's hard to say what all this will result in.

    Forecast of the day:

    The EURUSD pair is in a very narrow range of 1.1220-1.1370 in anticipation of resolving the situation around Brexit. It is likely that it will continue until tomorrow's speeches by Theresa May and Jerome Powell. It seems that there is not enough local weakening of the dollar exchange rate for the further growth of the pair. Stronger drivers are needed, which May and Powell can provide.

    The GBPUSD pair is trading in the range of 1.1260-1.1300, also in anticipation of Theresa May and Jerome Powell speeches.We believe that this range may continue until Tuesday.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  11. #1031
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    Trading plan for EUR/USD for February 27, 2019

    Technical outlook:
    The 4H chart presented for EUR/USD indicates that the single currency pair is approaching resistance soon at the 1.1425 levels as depicted here. We can expect another push higher towards the above, before reversing lower again. With the current wave structure, it seems likely that an impulse is in the making from the 1.1233 lows as highlighted on the above chart. Bulls are expected to push through the 1.142030 zone, probably today, in the next 7-8 hours before bears take control back over a corrective drop towards the 1.1310/20 levels. If the prices move according to the above wave structure, EUR/USD should be poised to hit higher highs in the coming several weeks with the potential price targets such as 1.1500, 1.1650, and 1.1800/20. As an alternative, a drop below 1.1233 and subsequently below the 1.1215 levels could see further bearishness into the 1.1180/90 region before the rally resumes.

    Trading plan:
    1. Aggressive: Long now @ 1.1378 stop at 1.1350 target @ 1.1425
    2. Aggressive: Short @ 1.1425, stop 1.1450/60, target @ 1.1310
    3. Conservative: Long on dips towards @ 1.1310/20

    Good luck!

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  12. #1032
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 28, 2019

    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be releasedsuch as Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French PrelimGDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, GermanPrelim CPI m/m, German Import Prices m/m. The US will release theEconomic Data too such as Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI,Unemployment Claims, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Advance GDP q/q, soamid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatilityduring this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1432.
    Strong Resistance:1.1425.
    Original Resistance: 1.1414.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1403.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1376.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1349.
    Original Support: 1.1338.
    Strong Support: 1.1327.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1320.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  13. #1033
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 04, 2019

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as PPI m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence, and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will also publish the economic data such as Construction Spending m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1425.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1418.
    Original Resistance: 1.1407.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1396.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1369.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1342.
    Original Support: 1.1331.
    Strong Support: 1.1320.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1313.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  14. #1034
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 05, 2019

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Home Sales, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1392.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1385.
    Original Resistance: 1.1374.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1363.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1336.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1309.
    Original Support: 1.1298.
    Strong Support: 1.1287.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1280.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  15. #1035
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    Forecast for GBP/USD on March 8, 2019

    Data on the growth of the Australian economy was disappointing. What is alarming is not just the fact that the country's GDP slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year - it is a persistent trend towards a decrease in the key indicator. Thus, if in the first quarter of 2018, Australia's GDP was at the level of 1.1% (quarterly), in the second quarter it decreased to 0.9%, in the third – to 0.3%, and finally in the fourth – to 0.2%. The same dynamics is observed in annual terms of the indicator: I quarter – 3.2%, II – 3.1%, III – 2.7% and IV – 2.3%. Today's release was not only worse than forecasts, but it also marked a certain anti-record. For example, on a quarterly basis, the indicator showed the weakest growth dynamics since the third quarter of 2016.

    On a smaller scale, H4, price convergence with the Marlin oscillator is being formed, which can be realized in a correction from the pound's fall from February 28, visually from the balance line to the daily. We do not expect a high correction, since the signal level of 1.3108 can assume the role of a split, that is, the level at which the price will be wound in a consolidation process.

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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 11, 2019

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Trade Balance and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Business Inventories m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1280.
    Strong Resistance:1.1274.
    Original Resistance: 1.1263.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1252.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1226.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1200.
    Original Support: 1.1189.
    Strong Support: 1.1178.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1172.


    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  17. #1037
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 12, 2019


    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final Private Payrolls q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1313.
    Strong Resistance:1.1307.
    Original Resistance: 1.1296.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1285.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1259.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1233.
    Original Support: 1.1222.
    Strong Support: 1.1211.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1205.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 13, 2019

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, and Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Construction Spending m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1344.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1338.
    Original Resistance: 1.1327.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1316.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1290.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1264.
    Original Support: 1.1253.
    Strong Support: 1.1242.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1236.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 14, 2019

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final CPI m/m and German Final CPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1383.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1376.
    Original Resistance: 1.1365.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1354.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1330.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1300.
    Original Support: 1.1289.
    Strong Support: 1.1278.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1271.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  20. #1040
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    USD/CAD approaching support, potential bounce!

    USD/CAD is approaching our first support at 1.3241 (horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce to our major resistance level at 1.3347 (50% Fibonacci retracement) might occur. Stochastic (89,5,3) is also nearing support where we might see a bounce in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment, so please ensure you fully understand the risks.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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