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  1. #1241
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    Forecast for AUD/USD on June 8, 2020

    AUD/USD The Australian dollar is moving sideways at a target level of 0.6975 since Friday last week as well this morning. The sideways movement increased the technical divergence on the Marlin oscillator. We are waiting for the movement to the first support of 0.6830.

    The Marlin divergence has also developed on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator is attacking the border of the downward trend territory. If the price consolidates below 0.6830, the price will also go under the MACD indicator line, respectively, the fall will likely continue towards the lower target of 0.6680.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro closed at the opening level on Monday, supported by the target level of 1.1265. The Marlin oscillator has strengthened the decline on a daily basis. On the first attempt, the price failed to overcome the immediate support, today we are waiting for a more successful attempt. Target at 1.1200.



    Price taking above support at 1.1265 is visible on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is on the territory of the declining trend - in the lower half of negative values. We are waiting for the price to try overcoming the nearest support and decrease to 1.1200 and further to 1.1125 - to the price channel line on the daily.



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  3. #1243
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2020

    EUR/USD
    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its forecasts for the economy: GDP at 6.5% for 2020, and 5.0% for 2021, inflation forecast for this year was 0.8%, and 1.6% for the future. The regulator expects an unemployment rate of 9.3% this year and 6.5% in the year 2021. The dollar index lost 0.32%, while the euro grew by 33 points. The only forecast of the Fed which raises a clear doubt, is the forecast for inflation. The release of huge money supply into the open market in the framework of combating the epidemic and supporting the unemployed population cannot but cause much stronger inflation. Very soon, the Fed will be forced to raise rates even contrary to an earlier promise not to do so before the end of the year. However, for the remaining six months, you can still manipulate statistics so that this is not very obvious, and shift the focus from developing inflation to employment problems. As a result, the euro is unlikely to continue to strengthen on yesterday's data from the Fed, investors understand the unreliability of these forecasts.

    The euro is staying in the range of target levels 1.1322-1.1416. According to the Marlin oscillator, a small divergence forms on the daily chart, but this can become a reversal signal.

    Divergence is more pronounced on the four-hour chart. Consolidating the price under 1.1322, which will also correspond to the price falling below the MACD line (it is going up), opens the underlying consecutive goals: 1.1265, 1.1200, 1.1125.

    Consolidating the price over 1.1416 may extend the current branch to 1.1495.

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    Control zones for USD/CAD on June 12, 2020

    The bullish movement of the quotes yesterday was 300 pips, which indicates the strength of the buyers. Any fall of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to enter buy positions, since the probability of updating the weekly high is 75%, which makes long positions profitable.

    The most favorable levels for buy positions are within the limits of the WCZ 1/2 1.3524-1.3509, a test of which will be decisive for the bullish impulse.

    Today, the pair is trading within the average weekly move, which increases the likelihood of a downward correction. The fall will occur against yesterday's strong movement, so entering sell positions is quite risky. Instead, use the drop as an opportunity to find a favorable level for buy positions in the trading instrument.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro fell by 42 points last Friday. It did not reach the target level of 1.1200 by 13 points, we are waiting for its development in the near future and only after that a local correction in the range of 1.1200/65. A small divergence on the Marlin oscillator continues to remain in force. Overcoming the price level of 1.2000 will allow the price to fall even deeper, to the price channel line in the region of 1.1120.

    The price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, the price is kept below the level of 1.1265. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, from the lower border of which it has turned up, which indicates that the price will likely fall only in the evening.

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    Forecast for AUD/USD on June 16, 2020

    AUD/USD
    Yesterday evening, the aggressive growth of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's statement about the intention to buy corporate bonds from the secondary market pushed the Australian currency up, it ended the day above a strong technical level of 0.6900. The Marlin oscillator is growing; formally, the target 0.7080 is open before the price.

    Considering the situation on a smaller four-hour chart indicates the presence of an alternative scenario that has a high probability of implementation - a price reversal from current levels, from the notched MACD line (indicator blue). The Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values. Price taking above yesterday's high will still launch the first scenario with an increase to 0.7080. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2020:

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD price moved towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2674, but bulls was not strong enough to break through it and the price reversed. The market conditions are now bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might risk another wave up from the current levels towards the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2747. Nevertheless, they have to violate the level of 1.2674 first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2645.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.3034
    WR2 - 1.2910
    WR1 - 1.2681
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2581
    WS1 - 1.2343
    WS2 - 1.2226
    WS3 - 1.2014

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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    Forecast for USD/JPY on June 18, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The yen strengthened by 30 points on Wednesday due to lower stock indices, which looks like a decrease in the USD/JPY pair on the chart. Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 0.36%, while the Nikkei 225 is losing 1.22% today. The price went below the MACD line on the daily chart, while Marlin is declining. The target at 105.90 as support for the embedded line of the price channel is open. In case we overcome support, we expect the price at the second target of 105.40.

    The price has consolidated under the red balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, and the Marlin oscillator line has entered the declining trend zone this morning. We are waiting for prices at the first target of 105.90.

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    USD/CHF price movement, June 19, 2020

    On the 4 hour chart now, we can see that USD/CHF is now moving in a narrow range. Overall, this pair has already formed a Triangle Pattern. It means that the USD/CHF pair will soon decline especially if this pair breaks out and closes bellow the red rectangle/ It will break through 0.9480 and 0.9375. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not rise and close above 0.9553.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 22, 2020

    EUR/USD
    Last Friday, buyers of the dollar managed to restrain the onslaught of the euro bulls and keep the single currency in a downward local trend of the last ten days. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has penetrated the territory of the bears, now it is easier for the market trend to reach the target along the embedded line of the price channel of 1.1115. Overcoming this support opens the second target of 1.1010.

    The four-hour chart shows that the euro's growth in the first half of the day was restrained by the balance indicator line, that is, the growth occurred in the framework of the general decreasing trend, which strengthens this trend itself. Now in the struggle of the local trend with convergence, the Marlin oscillator has a higher chance of winning the trend. We are waiting for the price at 1.1115.

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  11. #1251
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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 23, 2020:

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The EUR/USD pair has tested the lower level of the support range located at 1.1185 and bounced towards the short-term trend line resistance located around the level of 1.1265. The oversold market conditions might help the bulls to test the nearest technical resistance, but they must break through the short-term trend line resistance in order to regain the control over the market. Any violation of the level of 1.1148 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support seen at 1.0009. So, it is important for bulls to defend this level, but only a sustained violation of the short-term trend line resistance would put them back into control (around the level of 1.1300).

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.1456
    WR2 - 1.1397
    WR1 - 1.1266
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1215
    WS1 - 1.1074
    WS2 - 1.1031
    WS3 - 1.0903

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on June 24, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro grew by 48 points on Tuesday, almost consolidating itself above the target level of 1.1265 after a reversal of the Marlin oscillator signal line from the zero border line dividing the decline zone from the oscillator growth zone, indicating the prospect of a market trend. The next target of 1.1385 is formally open, but it may not be achieved, which can be seen when considering the situation on a smaller timeframe.

    Marlin's signal line went beyond the upper boundary of its own channel on the H4, but soon returned to it. This is already a sign of the falsity of the past price spike. And here two scenarios are possible: a slower growth of the euro in the range of 1.1353/85 with a divergence forming according to Marlin, and a reversal of the euro down without reaching 1.1353 (the June 16 high), practically from current levels. The first signal for this is the price drift under the MACD line (1.1295).

    Thus, it is late and unreliable to buy the euro, and early to sell. We are waiting for the resolution of the situation.

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  13. #1253
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 25, 2020

    EUR/JPY is in a minor correction from 121.10 preparing for a new impulsive rally higher towards the key-resistance at 122.12. A break above here will confirm that wave 2 has been completed. It is likely to test 119.41 and wave 3 is in motion for an ultimate break above the peak at 124.43.

    In the short-term, we are looking for a break above minor resistance at 120.75 to confirm this minor correction is completed and the rally to 122.12 is unfolding.

    R3: 122.12
    R2: 121.58
    R1: 121.23
    Pivot: 120.75
    S1: 120.19
    S2: 119.88
    S3: 119.60

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR from 119.95 and we have our stop placed at 119.35.

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  14. #1254
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    Control zones for USD/CAD on June 26, 2020

    The main direction of the USD / CAD pair is upward, so buy positions are currently the most profitable in the medium term. The nearest resistance is the monthly control zone in June, the lower border of which is located at the highs of last week. This increases the likelihood of a stunt in the coming days.

    The next target area is the WCZ 1/2 1.3783-1.3767, so part of the positions may be left in the hopes of its test. However, a fall and continued formation of the accumulation zone will occur, if an "absorption" pattern forms today in the daily chart. The closing of weekly trades will be the new starting point for both upward and downward patterns.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 30, 2020:

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has made another local low at the level of 1.2251 after all the bounces were too shallow to trigger a strong rally. The price is back inside the descending channel and despite the oversold market conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative as the RSI indicator hovers below its fifty level. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2361 and 1.2406. The larger time frame trend remains bullish.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2667
    WR2 - 1.2600
    WR1 - 1.2441
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2377
    WS1 - 1.2213
    WS2 - 1.2143
    WS3 - 1.1969

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 2, 2020:

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The EUR/USD pair has made series of Pin Bar candlesticks just above the key short-term support located at the level of 1.1185 and bounced significantly. The bulls are heading north, so any violation of the level of 1.1287 makes the rally towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1347 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the positive market conditions and strong momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.1484
    WR2 - 1.1410
    WR1 - 1.1289
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1235
    WS1 - 1.1124
    WS2 - 1.1056
    WS3 - 1.0936

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 3, 2020:

    Technical Market Outlook:
    After the EUR/USD pair has made series of Pin Bar candlesticks just above the key short-term support located at the level of 1.1185 some serious bounce has been expected, but it turned out the bulls have a fuel only to rally to the level of 1.1302. Then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick was made and the really reversed. The bulls might still be heading north, so any violation of the level of 1.1302 makes the rally towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1347 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the positive market conditions and strong momentum support the short-term bullish outlook. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.1484 WR2 - 1.1410 WR1 - 1.1289

    Weekly Pivot - 1.1235
    WS1 - 1.1124
    WS2 - 1.1056
    WS3 - 1.0936

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 6, 2020:

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has been hovering around the level of 1.2438 for most part of the weekend, but during the early Monday trading hours the bullish activity has increased. It looks like the bulls might want to test the 50% Fibonacci retracement once again, so in the case of a successful breakout, the next target for them is 61% retracement located at the level of 1.2597. Please notice, there is an important intraday technical resistance located just above 50% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.2542. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2406 and 1.2362.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2879
    WR2 - 1.2698
    WR1 - 1.2610
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2423
    WS1 - 1.2323
    WS2 - 1.2148
    WS3 - 1.2056

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on July 7, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro broke the resistance of the target level of 1.1265 on Monday, showing a growth of 61 points. The price peaked on June 23. After overcoming the intermediate level of 1.1353, we expect the growth to continue to 1.1420, the second goal is 1.1465. Reaching any of these levels with the Marlin oscillator will form a technical divergence, which will become a reversal signal. Perhaps a medium-term downward trend.

    The price is firmly held above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart – the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the euro to grow to the designated goal of 1.1420.

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    Japan Has Y1,176.8 Billion Current Account Surplus


    Japan posted a current account surplus of 1,176.8 billion yen in May, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

    That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 1,088.2 billion yen and was up from 262.7 billion yen in April.

    The trade balance showed a deficit of 556.8 billion yen, down 18.1 percent on year. Exports tumbled 28.9 percent on year to 4.197 trillion yen, while imports sank an annual 27.7 percent to 4.754 trillion yen.

    The capital account showed a deficit of 3.7 billion yen, while the financial account saw a deficit of 187.3 billion yen.

    News are provided by InstaForex

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