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  1. #1301
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 15, 2020

    The euro, having felt little resistance, grew by 18 points on Monday, following the momentum of the previous days. Meanwhile, British MPs in the second reading passed a law on the internal market last night, contrary to international law (which is what Prime Minister Boris Johnson meant when he spoke of the superiority of British laws). The law is sent to the authorities, and this cannot but put pressure on both the pound and the euro.

    The price is above the red balance indicator line on the daily chart, above the MACD line (blue), but the Marlin oscillator signal line touches its own trend line near the border of the growth area. The price could reverse from the current levels. If the price moves under the MACD line, below the 1.1800 level, it will cause the euro to fall towards the first target of 1.1650.

    But this has not happened yet, therefore, this plan may not be realized and the price will continue to rise to the upper border of the price channel in the 1.1995 area.

    The price settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the growing trend zone. Breaking through the September 10 high (1.1917) is a signal that the price could rise to 1.1995. But the price did not break far from the MACD line, and the line itself moves horizontally, that is, the prospects for a short-term trend is not very noticeable. The option that the price would move down has a 45% probability. We are waiting for the development of events. Probably, the final choice will take place at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

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  2. #1302
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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 16, 2020

    Technical Market Outlook:
    Another Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on H4 time frame has made the market to reverse at the level of 1.1899 and hit the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.1822 again. The bulls were unable to break through the retracement located at the level of 1.1912 and the rally was reversed. The bulls are still trying to resume the rally, but the level of 1.1912 has not been violated yet. Any intraday breakout below the level of 1.1813 will accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1753 again, so it is worth to keep an eye on the next developments. The weekly trend remains up,

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.2085
    WR2 - 1.1993
    WR1 - 1.1923
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1829
    WS1 - 1.1753
    WS2 - 1.1670
    WS3 - 1.1589

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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    Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 17, 2020

    Technical Market Outlook:
    GBP/JPY remains locked inside the sideways consolidation between 135.41 and 136.59 and we will need a break out of this consolidation-area for the next meaningfull move. We prefer a break above resistance at 136.59, but the longer GBP/JPY stays locked inside this sideways consolidation, the risk for a break below support at 135.41 rises for a final spike towards 133.87.

    A break above 136.59 will confirm that red wave iv/ has completed and red wave v/ to above 142.72 is in motion.
    R3: 137.10
    R2: 136.60
    R1: 136.06
    Pivot: 135.90
    S1: 135.75
    S2: 135.50
    S3: 135.25

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long GBP from 135.55 and we will move our stop to 135.35

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    Forecast for USD/JPY on September 18, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The USD/JPY pair retested the trend line from below and continued to decline on Thursday. The yen lost 21 points, but today there is a correction in the Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is reversing to the upside, which indicates the price's intention to continue doing so until the evening or Monday. After the correction is completed, the price can fall to the previously indicated target of 103.75.

    The price formed a short convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, this is a sign of the upcoming sideways price movement. There will probably be no strong movements in the market until the beginning of next week.

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    Forecast for AUD/USD on September 21, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The dollar index strengthened by 0.10% on Friday, it was enough for the overbought Australian to fall by 22 points (-0.30%). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has sharply turned down and penetrated the zone of negative values, although it is trying to go back up at the moment. We assume this is the effect of price fluctuations. We expect the price to overcome the first target of 0.7249 (September 10 low) and continue to fall to the second target of 0.7110 (August 12 low).

    The price fluctuates around the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. On the technical side, this means waiting for another impulse from the external market. The Marlin oscillator turned into a new wave of decline from the border of the growth area, which is a leading sign of a market reversal.

    We are waiting for the technical signals to be confirmed. This will probably not happen until Tuesday.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 22, 2020

    EUR/USD
    There was a slight panic in the market on Monday. Due to the development of the second wave of coronavirus in Europe and the United States, investors began to fear the widespread closure of economies, as the UK intends to do from today. The maximum restrictions in England are introduced from the 28th. The British stock index FTSE 100 fell 3.38%. The European EuroStoxx 50 index lost 3.74%, while the US S&P 500 was down -1.16%. Investors started buying the dollar as a defensive currency and the euro fell 68 points.

    The price attacked the lower border of the two-month consolidation range at 1.1760, now it is ready to reach the nearest target at 1.1650. Then (after a local correction), we expect it to fall towards 1.1550.

    The decline occurs without reversal signals on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the price to settle under 1.1760 and further progress towards the indicated targets.

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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 23, 2020

    We are still expecting a final dip closer to our ideal target at 122.15 to complete wave 2/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3/ to above the former peak at 127.07. In the short-term, a minor triangle is developing as the penultimate wave and this should ultimate give away for the final dip to 122.15 to complete wave 2/.

    Only a direct break above minor resistance at 123.42 wil indicate that wave 2/ already has completed while a break above resistance at 124.01 will confirm that wave 3/ is in motion.
    R3: 124.40
    R2: 124.01
    R1: 123.66
    Pivot: 123.30
    S1: 122.87
    S2: 122.53
    S3: 122.15

    Trading recommendation:
    We are short EUR from 123.90 and we will buy+revers our short position to a long EUR-position at 123.25 or upon a break above 123.45

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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    Forecast for USD/JPY on September 24, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The Japanese yen broke through the price channel line and reached the intermediate Fibonacci level of 110.0% on Wednesday. The powerful convergence of the price and the Marlin oscillator continues to work, now the yen is aiming for the Fibonacci level of 106.00, or slightly higher, where the MACD line passes. But the main goal of the USD/JPY pair is the upper line of the price channel (also embedded) around the area of the 106.40 level, since overcoming it will guarantee a medium-term price growth (targets 107.35, 108.20 and higher).

    The four-hour chart shows that the price has firmly settled in the area above the balance and MACD indicator lines. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator falls into the horizon, which may be a harbinger of a local price decline in the 105.00/15 range, formed by support of the MACD line (H4) and the price channel line (daily).

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  9. #1309
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    Evening review on September 24, 2020

    The EURUSD pair prospects possible decline.

    The unemployment claims in the US for the long-term practically remain unchanged at 12.6 million. Note that there was a notable decrease of 700,000 just a week earlier.

    Nevertheless, the euro continues to decline.
    You may keep selling from 1.1735 with a stop at 1.1760.

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  10. #1310
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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 28, 2020

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2697 (low was made at 1.2674) and after a short period of consolidation the market is starting to bounce. This corrective bounce higher should be capped very soon, because there is a wide supply zone located between the level of 1.2747 - 1.2869 and only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.2869 would indicate the whole corrective cycle termination. Moreover, the market is bouncing from the oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart and the momentum is slowly accelerating as well. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.3187
    WR2 - 1.3072
    WR1 - 1.2894
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2783
    WS1 - 1.2601
    WS2 - 1.2494
    WS3 - 1.2312

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on September 29, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro slightly increased on Monday amid rising risk appetite in the stock market and ahead of the first debate of presidential candidates Trump and Biden on Wednesday. Technically, the growth was reflected in consolidation at the target level of 1.1650. The observed consolidation is likely to continue today. The price must settle below the 1.1650 level in order for a significant downward movement to appear. The first target is 1.1550 (November 2017 low).

    The price shows an intention to fall from the September 24 and 25 highs. It would be like forming a narrow consolidation, which in turn will act as a technical figure for the trend to continue, that is, a decline. The euro's consolidation growth may continue up to the MACD indicator line at 1.1712. We are waiting for the development of events, the main scenario is decreasing.

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    Forecast for AUD/USD on September 30, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar has created a dual growth situation this morning, which suggests a reversal towards the 0.7190 level without achieving this target. This circumstance is due to the delta in the upper lines of the trading channel of the Marlin oscillator of the daily chart. The signal line of the oscillator can make a reversal from any of them, either from the blue line or from the green line. This shows us how false the growing movement can be if it begins to develop. The price staying above 0.7190 with Marlin entering the zone of positive values will be a sign of price growth. The first target will be the 0.7270 level .

    The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but the Marlin oscillator is marking a reversal, at the moment its signal line is moving horizontally. In a short amount of time, the price may return to the area under this line and settle below it. In this case, and this is the main scenario, the aussie will aim for 0.7065. Consolidating below it opens the second target at 0.6970.

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  13. #1313
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on October 1, 2020

    USD/JPY
    USD/JPY fell by 18 points while investors were temporarily confused on Wednesday, stopping at the 110.0% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. The pair is planning to go up from this level during the Asian session. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the growth zone. We are waiting for the next branch of growth at the target of 106.00 - at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% and the MACD line coinciding with it.

    The price is held by the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the general trend is growing. The Marlin oscillator has been declining for a long time while the price increases, you can look at this as the indicator easing from the overbought zone before it grows further. We are waiting for the price to reach the designated target.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 2, 2020

    EUR/USD The euro rose by 26 points yesterday, a stronger movement was prevented from developing the signal level of 1.1754, created by the lows of August 21 and September 9. The Marlin oscillator is showing the first signs of a reversal. Perhaps with the release of US employment data, this reversal will intensify. The US unemployment rate for September is expected to fall from 8.4% to 8.2%. The first target for the euro is 1.1650, then 1.1550.

    The price formed a divergence with the oscillator on the four-hour chart. In order to confidently decline, The price needs to settle below the MACD line below 1.1688. We are waiting for the development of events.

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    Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 7, 2020

    Crypto Industry News:
    According to a recent SEC disclosure by the Greyscale Ethereum Trust, or ETHE, Ethereum's impending shift to proof-of-stake consensus is a risk that could have a "material adverse effect" on its stock.

    ETHE has recently applied to the regulator to become a SEC reporting company. Such companies are required to discuss risk factors that may adversely affect their results in all quarterly and annual reports.

    In one section, which aims to outline the potential threats to the fund's future, it was noted that upgrading to ETH 2.0 may cause some difficulties for investors:

    "The digital asset network's consensus mechanism is an essential aspect of its source code, and any failure to properly implement such a change could have a significant negative impact on the ETH value."

    The report mentions that the inability to properly implement these changes may result in a temporary or permanent bifurcation which could have a negative impact on ETHE's stock.

    It seems that the upcoming modernization so far does not diminish investors' interest in the fund. On the contrary, the assets of the Trust it manages have grown exponentially over the past year, from $ 67 million to over $ 800 million at the time of publication.

    Technical Market Outlook:
    The ETH/USD pair had failed to break through the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down and suddenly reversed all the previous gains. The local trend line support had been violated as well and the pair made a new local low seen at the level of $332.46. There was some Pin Bar candlestick made at the end of the move down, so a small bounce is possible up to the level of $345.20. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - $403.75
    WR2 - $387.38
    WR1 - $368.10
    Weekly Pivot - $351.05
    WS1 - $333.15
    WS2 - $315.51
    WS3 - $296.13

    Trading Recommendations:
    The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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  16. #1316
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on October 8, 2020

    USD/JPY
    The Japanese yen was able to overcome the resistance of two indicator lines at once - balance and MACD, and today it continues to rise above them. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in the zone of positive values, the nearest target at 106.34 is open, we are waiting for the moment we overcome this resistance - the embedded price channel line, and for the price to rise to the 106.96 level - to the high of August 28.

    The price continues to steadily grow above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is rising in the zone where bulls are in control. We are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to grow further. Today's report on the balance of payments for the month of August, which showed growth from 0.96 trillion yen to 1.65 trillion yen, provides optimism for Japanese investors.

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    Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 9, 2020

    Technical Market Outlook:
    Despite the recent bounce from the upper channel line seen at the level of 1.2848, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017. The bounce indicated some bullish pressure at this level and the upper channel line is being guarded strongly, but after some time we can see the momentum decreased and the Pound is trading horizontally. However, if the price will enter the old main channel zone, then the sell-off might accelerate, so the key technical support is again seen at the level of 1.2848. The next target for bulls after the bounce is seen at the level of 1.2979.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.3265
    WR2 - 1.3116
    WR1 - 1.3034
    Weekly Pivot - 1.2892
    WS1 - 1.2811
    WS2 - 1.2658
    WS3 - 1.2571

    Trading Recommendations:
    On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 12, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The euro pulled away from the 1.1754 level last Friday and went beyond the resistance of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has entered the positive zone, indicating the prospect of price growth. The growth target is the MACD line at the 1.1910 level, which coincides with the high on July 31 (blue mark).

    The price settled above the signal level of 1.1810 on the four-hour chart, and even today's gap could not outwit this support. Marlin rises in the bullish zone. But the price forms a double or even, albeit not quite clear, triple divergence with the oscillator. And here, after slightly struggling above the signal level, a downward reversal is possible.

    Forming the final downward trend in the medium-term trend will progress if the price settles below the target level of 1.1754. It is possible that by the time the price attacks this level, the MACD line will also approach it.

    The euro's growth looks strong on the daily chart, we will determine the probability of rising to 1.1910 at 60%, but the market can easily take advantage of the remaining 40% of the reversal scenario. The first condition for further growth is when the price settles above the Friday high. We are waiting for the development of events.

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  19. #1319
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    AUD/USD forecast for October 13, 2020

    AUD/USD
    The Australian dollar did not close the gap at the opening of the week, so the current decline of 65 points from Friday's close may only be a correction from the growth of the previous days. According to Monday's review, the possible growth will also have the character of a correction from the movement starting September 1 and may end before reaching any of the target levels even at the nearest 0.7270.

    The Marlin oscillator went into a downward trend zone. Formally, this means that the price is moving towards the first target level of 0.7055, but let's look at the situation on a smaller chart.

    On the H4 chart, there is currently no price fixing under the level of 0.7190. The next candle should open under this level to achieve this. Also, the price remains above the Kruzenshtern indicator line at 0.7143 and even above the balance indicator line, i.e. the observed decline occurs within the growing short-term trend. Only the Marlin oscillator reminds the price that it is time to finish with growth but is still weak.

    So, for the development of a downward scenario in the short term up to two weeks, the price should be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line below 0.7143. In the case of a medium-term decline in the AUD/USD currency pair, the impact of the gap (especially insignificant) can be ignored, sometimes they are closed only after a few years.

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    Forecast for EUR/USD on October 14, 2020

    EUR/USD
    The S&P 500 lost 0.63% on Tuesday, on the news that Johnson & Johnson's anti-skin vaccine trial was suspended due to severe side effects, and so the euro fell by 66 points. This, as we see it, stopped the speculative growth over the euro that has been ongoing for the past two weeks. The price moved below the target level of 1.1754, having reversed from the resistance of the balance line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is back in the negative territory. Now we are waiting for the price to drop to the target level of 1.1650, then to 1.1550 (November 2017 low).

    The price settled under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the negative zone. Conditions for a further decline have been formed, we are waiting for the price at the indicated levels.

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