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  1. #861
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    Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 01, 2017

    The pair remains following a bullish structure above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and looks forward to testing the 1.3541 level, amid USD weakness against the Pound. Corrective moves might happen in the short-term, with the nearest target placed around the 200 SMA and the 1.3303 level. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, favoring to the downside.

    H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3440 / 1.3541
    H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3244

    Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3440, take profit is at 1.3541 and stop loss is at 1.3337.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  2. #862
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    Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 6, 2017

    AUD/USD has been quite corrective recently after a strong bearish pressure pushing the price off the 0.8150 price area. AUD had been quite mixed with the economic reports where negatives are more in quantity than positive reports for which the currency is currently struggling to gain over USD despite the current weak status of USD. Recently AUD Current Account report was published with negative figure of -9.1B from the previous figure of -9.7B though it is less than the previous figure but could not meet the expectation of much less deficit at -8.8B, Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3% and in the Rate Statement the Cash Rate of Australia was unchanged as expected at 1.50% which did not quite helped with the gains of AUD but was able to stop the impulsive bearish pressure in the pair. Today, AUD GDP report was published with a worse value of 0.6% decrease from the previous value of 0.9% which was expected to be at 0.7%. The worse economic report did affect the currency quite well which lead to impulsive bearish pressure today. On the USD side today, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 189k from the previous figure of 235k, Revised Non-Farm Productivity is expected to increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.2M from the previous figure of -3.4M. The forecasts are quite mixed in nature where any better than expected economic report is expected to add to the gains of USD against AUD in the coming days. To sum up, AUD has been quite weak in comparison as it could not dominate USD in its weakest period which is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days if USD publishes better economic report results in the future.

    Now let us look at the technical view, the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and it has worked very well as a resistance to keep the price lower. As the price is currently quite near to the support area of 0.7500-50 the bears are expected to push the price towards the support level in the coming days and any bounce or breaks off the area will lead to further directional movement in this pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7650 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.


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  3. #863
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    BTC/USD reacting off our selling entry perfectly, remain bearish

    Bitcoin has reached our selling area and is reacting off it nicely. We remain bearish looking to sell below 17459 resistance (Fibonacci extension, bearish price action, bearish divergence) for a drop towards at least 14739 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

    Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 98% and also displays bearish divergence vs price, signaling that a reversal is impending.

    Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

    Bitcoin January futures (which are contracts that let investors buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) price are about $17,800 which is rather close to where we forecast major resistance. This is in line with the immediate resistance we're seeing on the technical side so it would be safe to start looking to short Bitcoin for a correction.

    Sell below 17459. Stop loss is at 18770. Take profit is at 14739.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  4. #864
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 18, 2017

    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Buba Monthly Report, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as NAHB Housing Market Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1805.
    Strong Resistance:1.1798.
    Original Resistance: 1.1787.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1776.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1748.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1720.
    Original Support: 1.1709.
    Strong Support: 1.1698.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1691.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  5. #865
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 19, 2017

    Wave summary:
    EUR/JPY is back testing the broken minor support-line, which now acts as resistance. This former support, now resistance, is expected to cap the upside for more downside pressure towards the pivot point at 131.14, which needs to be broken to confirm that wave (D) completed at 134.50 and wave (E) now is developing towards the ideal target seen at 123.43.

    Short-term a break below minor support at 132.10 confirms more downside pressure towards 131.14.

    R3: 133.89
    R2: 133.76
    R1: 133.00
    Pivot: 132.10
    S1: 131.70
    S2: 131.14
    S3: 130.56

    Trading recommendation:
    We are short EUR from 133.40 with stop placed at 133.80.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  6. #866
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    AUD/JPY reversing nicely below major resistance

    The price has started to form a really nice reversal pattern with bearish divergence being formed. We look to sell below major resistance at 86.67 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 84.69 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

    Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 98% where we expect a corresponding drop from. We're also seeing bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

    Sell below 86.67. Stop loss is at 87.34 Take profit is at 84.69.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  7. #867
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 21, 2017



    Wave summary:
    The break above resistance at 134.50 told us that wave (D) still is developing and more upside towards the "old" 137.37 target should be expected to complete wave (D) and set the stage for the final decline within the huge triangle consolidation, that has been developing since July 2008. Support is now seen at 134.40 and again at 133.84. The later should be able to protect the downside for more upside closer to 137.37.

    R3: 136.05
    R2: 135.75
    R1: 134.90
    Pivot: 134.40
    S1: 133.84
    S2: 133.57
    S3: 133.24

    Trading recommendation:
    We will buy EUR at 134.10 and place our stop at 133.40.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  8. #868
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    The US dollar returns to the game

    Data in the first half of the Thursday exerted pressure on the European currency, not allowing it to get beyond its weekly highs against the US dollar. According to the report of a statistics agency, the level of confidence in the manufacturing sector in France in December of this year declined. Thus, the index of sentiment of companies in the manufacturing sector was at 112 points against the November value of 113 points. Despite this, a high level of confidence supports the economic growth of France. Restrained demand for the euro is also associated with early parliamentary elections, which took place in Catalonia. It is expected that the majority of seats in parliament can go to parties that advocate integrity, and which are against the independence of Catalonia. Coupled with another result, the pressure on the European currency may rise again. Weak data on the annual growth of US GDP in the 3rd quarter of this year did not allow the US dollar to further strengthen its positions against the European currency in the afternoon at the beginning of the US session. According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the US economy in the third quarter of this year expanded by 3.2% compared with the same period in 2016, which is lower than the previous estimate. According to the previous estimate, the annual growth of US GDP in the third quarter was 3.3%. Economists forecast that GDP will remain unchanged at the level of 3.3%.

    The main reason for the decline in the indicator was consumer spending, which dropped further during the reporting period than previously thought. Growth was noted in company investments and exports.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, an unsuccessful attempt to get beyond the resistance level of 1.1885 led to the expected downward correction in the trading instrument, which will likely be limited to support levels around 1.1830 and 1.1805.

    The British pound rose after data on reduced borrowing of the UK public sector. According to the report, in November of this year, the net borrowing of the UK public sector decreased and amounted to 8.7 billion pounds compared to the same period of last year. As noted in the report, borrowing declined due to increased tax revenue.

    As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, it is likely that the pressure on the pound will continue and that will lead to a decline in the trading instrument towards the lower border of the channel to the area of 1.3330 and 1.3300, from which it was possible twice to see the return to the market of large buyers of the British pound.

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  9. #869
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    Wave analysis of the EUR / USD currency pair for December 28, 2017

    Analysis of wave counting:
    In a thin inter-holiday market, the EUR/USD pair was able to add about 60 pp in price and re-tested to the level of the 19th figure in the second half of yesterday. It can be assumed that the currency pair has reached the final stage of the formation of the wave c, in b, in c, in a, in (C). If this is the case, the pair can resume reduction quotes and mark the beginning of a future wave in a, and in (C) after virtually reaching the highest level achieved yesterday or after the growth to the level 1.1920-1.1930.

    Objectives for building a downward wave:
    1.1736 - 38.2% by Fibonacci
    1.1666 - 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
    Goals for building an upward wave:
    1.1900
    1.1918 - 11.4% Fibonacci retracement

    General conclusions and trading recommendations:
    The construction of the downward trend section continues, as well as the construction of the assumed wave b, in c, in a, in (C). If this assumption is correct, the quote will resume its increase with targets around 19 figures and the mark of 1.1918. Hereinafter, a decline in quotations may resume with the targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1736 and 1.1666, corresponding to 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci, and lower.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  10. #870
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    Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair. Weekly review

    Analysis of wave counting:
    At the end of last week, the pair USD / JPY still began to decline, losing about 90 pp and was able to work out the mark of 112.50 in the middle of the Friday session. Thus, it seems that the currency pair has attempted to confirm the transition to the stage of formation taking a rather complex form of the waves c, b, a, (C). If this is the case, then in the process of the development of the wave structure of this wave c, b, a, (C), the currency pair can continue the already identified downward movement in the direction of the levels of the 111th or even 110th figure.

    Targets for the downward wave option:
    111.01 - 50.0% of Fibonacci
    110.14 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

    Targets for the upward wave option:
    115.43 - 61.8% of Fibonacci
    116.32 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

    General conclusions and trading recommendations:
    The pair USD / JPY continues to build the upward wave (C). Thus, the increase in quotations may continue within the wave c, a, (C) with targets located near the estimated levels of 115.43 and 116.32, which corresponds to 61.8% and 76.4% of Fibonacci (these goals will be reviewed). The assumed wave b, a, (C) can resume its construction, complicating its internal wave structure.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  11. #871
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    NZD/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

    The price is testing major resistance at 0.7188 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) and a strong reaction could occur at this level to push the price down to at least 0.7041 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). However, we are also in a bullish ascending channel and only a break of this channel would confirm further downside move.

    Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 94% and also displays bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

    Sell below 0.7188. Stop loss is at 0.7280. Take profit is at 0.7041.

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  12. #872
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    European Economics Preview: Eurozone Economic Confidence Data Due

    Economic confidence and retail trade from euro area and factory orders from Germany are due on Monday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

    At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's factory orders data. Economists forecast orders to fall 0.2 percent on month in November, reversing a 0.5 percent rise in October.

    In the meantime, industrial production data from Norway is due.

    At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office releases industrial and construction output and foreign trade figures. Also, Hungary's industrial output and retail sales reports are due.

    At 3.15 am ET, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office publishes inflation data.

    At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data is due. The indicator is forecast to rise slightly to 31.2 in January from 31.1 in December.

    At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission publishes Eurozone economic sentiment survey results. The index is seen at 114.7 in December versus 114.6 in November.

    In the meantime, Eurostat releases retail sales data. Economists forecast euro area retail sales to grow 1.2 percent on month in November in contrast to a 1.1 percent fall in October.

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  13. #873
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 9, 2018

    Wave summary:
    EUR/NZD has declined nice and is now close to the first support near 1.6571. This support is expected to protect the downside for at least a corrective rally closer to 1.6800 and maybe even turn prices higher trough important resistance at 1.7025 for the next impulsive rally towards 1.7777.

    R3: 1,6890
    R2: 1.6800
    R1: 1.6701
    Pivot: 1.6630
    S1: 1.6571
    S2: 1.6447
    S3: 1.6298

    Trading recommendation:
    We are short EUR from 1.6795. We will book half profit here at 1.6675 for a nice profit of 120 pips and we will move our stop lower from 1.7085 to 1.6835 on the rest of the position.

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  14. #874
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2018

    Wave summary:
    The corrective rally from 133.09 spikes just above our upper target at 135.25 and should now be ready to turn lower again for a decline towards 131.11 before another corrective rally is expected towards 134.10.

    Short-term a break below minor support at 134.79 will be a strong indicator that the corrective rally from 133.09 has completed and the expected decline to 131.11 has begun.

    R3: 136.64
    R2: 136.05
    R1: 135.66
    Pivot: 134.79
    S1: 134.25
    S2: 133.65
    S3: 133.09

    Trading recommendation:
    We sold EUR at 134.74. We will place our stop at 136.75, but expect to move it lower soon. Upon a break below 134.79, we will move the stop lower to 135.75.

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  15. #875
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 16, 2018



    Wave summary:
    We continue to regard the rally from 133.01 as corrective and is looking for a break below minor support at 135.36 and more importantly a break below support at 135.00 as confirmation that this correction has completed and a new decline 131.11 is developing.

    At no point should a break above 136.64 be seen under this count.
    R3: 137.37
    R2: 136.64
    R1: 136.32
    Pivot: 135.36
    S1: 135.00
    S2: 134.80
    S3: 134.35

    Trading recommendation:
    We are short EUR from 134.75 with our stop placed at 136.75. Upon a break below 135.00 we will lower our stop to 136.15.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  16. #876
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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 17, 2018

    In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Resistance. 3: 110.97.
    Resistance. 2: 110.76.
    Resistance. 1: 110.54.
    Support. 1: 110.27.
    Support. 2: 110.06.
    Support. 3: 109.84.

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  17. #877
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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 19, 2018

    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.2420.
    Strong Resistance:1.2404.
    Original Resistance: 1.2377.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.2350.
    Target Inner Area: 1.2286.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.2222.
    Original Support: 1.2195.
    Strong Support: 1.2168.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.2152.

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  18. #878
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    The trading plan for the US session is EUR/USD and GBP/USD

    EUR/USD
    To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:
    Buyers are trying to get ahold of the level of 1.2252, and while the trade is higher, a chance remains for continued growth of the euro with an update of 1.2294 and the main purpose of a test at 1.2342, where I recommend locking in profits. In the event of a decline below the level of 1.2252 in the afternoon, consider new purchases of the euro after a test at the level of 1.2215, or immediately towards a rebound from 1.2169.
    To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:
    A return to the level of 1.2252 would be a good signal to increase short positions on the euro for the purpose of a breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.2215, which opens a direct road to the area of 1.2169, where I recommend locking in profits. In case the euro further grows, it is possible to look for short positions after the formation of a false breakout at 1.2294 or on a rebound from 1.2342.

    GBP/USD
    To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required: Buyers are trying to work out a scenario in the morning in order to consolidate above 1.3886, and while the trade is at this level, you can count on continuing an upward trend with an exit towards a resistance of 1.3940. The main target remains in the area of 1.4018. In the event of a return below the level of 1.3886, I recommend that you pay attention to long positions on the pound only after a test at 1.3839.
    To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:
    The return at 1.3886 will signal an opening of short positions for the pound, which will lead to the renewal of daily lows in the area of 1.3839 and will likely reach a new support level of 1.3797, where I recommend locking in the profit. In case of continued growth in the pound during the afternoon, short positions can be considered for a rebound from 1.3940.

    Indicator description
    Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
    Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
    MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA Bollinger Bands 20

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

  19. #879
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    USD/CHF right on major support, prepare for a bounce

    The price is now testing major support at 0.9569 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) and we expect a bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 0.9699 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

    Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.7% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
    Buy above 0.9569. Stop loss at 0.9501.
    Take profit at 0.9699.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  20. #880
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    Pound updates annual highs on the background of the report on the labor market

    The euro managed to strengthen against the US dollar in the morning against the backdrop of data indicating the likely retention of the euro zone's economic growth rates earlier this year. However, a serious breakthrough in important levels of resistance has not occurred, indicating a restrained demand for risky assets.

    According to the IHS Markit report, Germany's economy continues to show good results in early 2018 due to the growth of activity in the services sector. So, the index of supply managers for the German services sector in January 2018 increased to 57.0 points against 55.8 points in December. Economists, on the contrary, expected a decline in the index. The index for the manufacturing sector in January fell slightly, to 61.2 points.

    In the eurozone, there are also signs of stable growth, as evidenced by the data.

    According to the IHS Markit report, the preliminary composite index of supply managers of the eurozone in January 2018 increased to 58.6 points against 58.1 points in December. It should be noted that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. This growth in the index corresponds to a quarterly growth of the economy by 1%.

    In France, the preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in January this year dropped to 58.1 points against the December value of 58.8 points. But the preliminary index of supply managers for the services sector, on the contrary, increased in January to 59.3 points against 59.1 points in December. Economists had expected that the service sector index would drop to a level of 58.9 points.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, there have been no significant changes. The main objective of euro buyers today will be to keep above the 1.2300 area, which will make it possible to count on continuing the upward trend, with the update of the new significant highs of 1.2390 and 1.2430.

    The British pound continued its growth against the US dollar, after it became known that the employment rate in the UK from September to November 2017 reached a record high. Meanwhile, wages in the UK declined, which indicates a worsening of the financial situation of consumers after the referendum on Brexit.

    According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, the employment rate in the UK was 4.3%, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. The average earnings in the UK for the period increased by 2.4%, while real wages fell by 0.5%.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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