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  1. #1421
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    China's Industrial Output, Retail Sales Growth Slows

    China's industrial production and retail sales grew at weaker pace in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.

    Industrial output growth eased to 4.8 percent in July from 6.3 percent in June. Output was forecast to expand 6 percent.

    Likewise, growth in retail sales slowed to 7.6 percent from 9.8 percent a month ago. This was the weakest growth in three months. The expected pace of growth was 8.6 percent.

    During January to July period, fixed asset investment logged an annual growth of 5.7 percent compared to 5.8 percent increase in January to June. The rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 5.8 percent.

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  2. #1422
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    Australia Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 5.2% In July

    The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5,2 percent in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged from the previous month and in line with expectations.

    The Australian economy added 41,100 jobs last month, far surpassing expectations for a gain of 14,000 jobs following the increase of 500 jobs in June.

    The participation rate was 66.1 percent, exceeding estimates for 66.0 - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

    Unemployment increased 800 to 712,900 persons.

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  3. #1423
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    Japan Has Y249.6 Billion Trade Deficit In July

    Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 249.6 billion yen in July, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

    That missed expectations for a shortfall of 194.5 billion yen following the 589.5 billion yen deficit in June.

    Exports were down 1.6 percent on year, topping forecasts for a decline of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 6.6 percent drop in the previous month (originally -6.7 percent).

    Imports dipped an annual 1.2 percent versus forecasts for a decline of 2.3 percent following the 5.2 percent fall a month earlier.

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  4. #1424
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    European Economics Preview: Eurozone Final PMI Data Due

    Final Purchasing Managers' survey data from euro area is due on Monday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

    At 3.00 am ET, Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Norway, Poland and Turkey. Poland's factory PMI is forecast to rise to 47.7 in August from 47.4 in July.

    In the meantime, Turkey's GDP data is due. The economy is forecast to contract 2 percent on year in the second quarter, following a 2.6 percent fall in the first quarter.

    At 3.45 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to issue Italy's manufacturing PMI data. The PMI is expected to rise slightly to 48.6 in August from 48.5 in July.

    Thereafter, final PMI figures are due from France and Germany at 3.50 am and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

    At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is set to release euro area factory PMI data. The final reading is forecast to match the flash estimate of 47.0 in August.

    Half an hour later, UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI figures are due. The PMI is seen at 48.8 in August versus 48.0 in July.

    At 5.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases July retail sales data. Sales had increased 1.9 percent on month in June.

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  5. #1425
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    EUR/USD: if there is a rebound, it will be short-lived, the decline will continue

    After a slight rebound, the EUR/USD pair may resume falling, as the trend is still in a downward direction. Resistance is expected at a psychologically significant level of 1.1000, followed by 1.1027, then 1.050, at which EUR/USD held in mid-August. A potential rebound, if any, will be temporary. Although the situation in the German political arena encourages the euro's growth, Italy has not yet formed a government, and in Germany, the key parties have agreed only on fundamental principles and still need to agree on many details. Moreover, the economic situation in the eurozone remains alarming. Markit purchasing managers' final indices for the manufacturing sector show that prospects remain bleak.

    How low can the euro go? This question after the Friday crash worries many traders. Most likely, the market will see a temporary recovery. The chancellor of the ruling CDU party, Angela Merkel, won the local elections in Saxony. In other regions, fears of the victory of extremists from the Alternative German State (AfD) also did not materialize. These results will help stabilize the shaky coalition and strengthen the role of Merkel as a guarantor of stability on the continent. There is another reason for the rebound. US President Donald Trump, although he introduced new duties, recalled that high-level talks should be held at the end of this month in Washington. Until recently, the relative lull in the trade war stimulated the growth of the dollar, now the dollar will experience downward pressure. In addition, the escalation of the trade war means better prospects for German manufacturers, which depend on exports to China.

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  6. #1426
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    Ireland Services Activity Growth Weakest Since January



    Ireland's services activity grew at the slowest pace since January on weak new orders and employment, survey results from IHS Markit showed Wednesday.

    The AIB services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 54.6 in August from 55.0 in July. The score signaled the slowest rise since January. However, a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

    Inflows of overall new business expanded at the slowest pace in four months, amid reports from some firms of Brexit uncertainty negatively affecting orders from the UK.

    Irish service providers recorded the weakest payroll expansion since May 2013. On the price front, data showed that while the rate of input cost inflation eased, companies increased their output charges at a faster pace in August.

    Meanwhile, sentiment towards activity over the coming year dropped to the lowest since December 2011 as Brexit weighed on optimism.

    The composite output index held steady at 51.8 in August despite the manufacturing sector continued to contract.

  7. #1427
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    Golden cosmos

    Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

    The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.

    On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

    I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

    The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

    Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

    I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

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  8. #1428
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    Japan Core Machine Orders Sink 6.6% In July

    Core machine orders in Japan were down a seasonally adjusted 6.6 percent on month in July, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 896.9 billion yen.

    That beat expectations for a fall of 8.1 percent following the 13.9 percent surge in June.

    On a yearly basis, core machine orders rose 0.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for a fall of 4.3 percent following the 12.5 percent gain in the previous month.

    The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 0.1 percent in July.

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  9. #1429
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    Denmark Producer Prices Fall In August



    Denmark's producer prices declined further in August, figures from Statistics Denmark showed on Monday.

    The producer prices fell 3.1 percent year-on-year in August, following a 2.2 percent decline in July.

    Domestic market prices decreased 4.4 percent annually in July and foreign market prices declined 1.4 percent.

    Import prices fell 1.0 percent annually in August and decreased 0.3 percent from the previous month.

    On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.3 percent in August, after a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.

  10. #1430
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    Australia House Prices Sink 0.7% In Q2

    House prices in Australia were down 0.7 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

    That exceeded expectations for a decline of 1.1 percent following the 3.0 percent drop in the three months prior.

    On a yearly basis, house prices fell 7.4 percent - unchanged from Q1 but again beating forecasts for a fall of 7.7 percent.

    The total value of residential dwellings in Australia fell A$17,611.6m to A$6,610,590.1m this quarter. The mean price of residential dwellings fell A$4,400 to A$638,900. The number of residential dwellings rose by 43,100 to 10,347,200.

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  11. #1431
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    Japan Has Y136.3 Billion Deficit In August

    Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 136.329 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

    That beat forecasts for a shortfall of 365.4 billion yen following the 250.7 billion yen deficit in July.

    Exports were down 8.2 percent on year to 6.140 trillion yen, also topping expectations for a decline of 10.9 percent following the 1.5 percent annual drop in the previous month.

    Imports sank an annual 12.0 percent versus forecasts for a decline of 11.0 percent after easing 1.2 percent a month earlier.

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  12. #1432
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    European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash PMI Data Due

    Flash Purchasing Managers' survey data from euro area is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

    At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit is slated to issue France flash PMI data for September. The composite output index is forecast to drop to 52.5 from 52.9 in August.

    At 3.30 am ET, Germany's flash PMI data is due. Economists forecast the composite PMI to rise to 52.0 in September from 51.7 in August.

    At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to publish euro area final PMI results. The composite PMI is seen at 52.0 in September versus 51.9 in August. At 4.30 am ET, UK household finance data is due from IHS Markit.

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  13. #1433
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    Pound at a loss, but does not lose optimism

    Hopes of the British pound to rise gradually fade, but the probability of growth still remains, analysts say. The currency of the United Kingdom slightly grew on the positive news last week, but this effect was short-lived.

    Recall, last Friday, analysts marked a rally of the pound, which has risen in price on the wave of new optimism regarding a possible deal on Brexit. This rise was triggered by the comments of Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, who stated the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU with an agreement. However, the official did not disclose the details of this decision, in connection with which experts considered the position of the pound to be rather unstable.

    The experts were right in many respects: on Monday, September 23, the British currency tried to break through strong option levels on the news about alternative solutions to the problem of the Irish border, proposed by the government of Boris Johnson. Some of them even won the approval of Brexit's main opponents without a deal, the Northern Ireland Democratic Union Party (DUP). Many representatives of the EU leadership, including Juncker, softened the general rhetoric, but the signal that the EU was ready to amend the agreement and approve the deal turned out to be false. As a result, the last chance to retain Britain as part of the EU was lost.

    The unstable political situation shook the British currency. It still clings to its former optimism, but it is fading before our eyes. At the same time, the GBP/USD currency pair is traded in the structure of the first impulse of decline. The goal is the level of 1.2444, and then a correction to 1.2515 is expected. In the future, analysts do not rule out a fall to the level of 1.2444 and lower, to 1.2360.

    On Friday, it became clear that no real breakthrough regarding Brexit is expected. Boris Johnson is quite happy with the country's exit from the EU without a deal, and an attempt to organize new negotiations is unlikely to drastically change the current state of affairs.

    In this situation, not only the pound and the entire British economy will suffer, but also the eurozone economy, analysts at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are certain. They confirmed the negative scenario in the event of a "hard" Brexit, which would hit the eurozone GDP, reducing it by 0.5 percentage points (pp), while UK GDP would fall by 2 pp.

    In the short term, the British currency can test the range of 1.2700-1.2720, analysts said. However, the market still hopes for growth, although the priority in terms of volume remains with deferred sales. Moreover, even a slight negative signal against the GBP/USD pair will throw it into a strong resistance zone to the level of 1.2250, analysts said.

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  14. #1434
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    UK Car Production Rises For First Time In 15 Months

    UK car production increased for the first time in 15 months in August, data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed on Thursday.

    Car production grew 3.3 percent on a yearly basis in August as factories kept production lines rolling throughout the month after they brought forward planned summer shutdowns to April in preparation for the original Brexit deadline.

    The increase in August couldn't offset the substantial losses posted in April. Only 2,903 more cars were produced in August 2019 than in the same month last year, the agency noted.

    Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said, "While growth is always welcome, today's figures mask the underlying downward trend and strengthening global headwinds facing the sector, including international trade tensions, massive technological upheaval and, in the UK, political and economic uncertainty."

    Production for the domestic market advanced 15.2 percent in August. Meanwhile, output for exports grew marginally by 0.6 percent.

    This disguised ongoing weakness in major global markets with production for China down 43.8 percent, exports to the US falling 9.1 percent and those to the EU dropped 13.7 percent in the first eight months.

    The year-to-date production plunged 17 percent. Output failed to reach one million units by August for the first time in five years, the lobby noted.

    The SMMT repeatedly called for Brexit deal to maintain competitiveness and safeguard jobs.

    SMMT Chief Executive Hawes said the mere threat of no deal has undermined investment and the potential imposition of tariffs, border delays and additional administrative burdens would damage competitiveness.

    "We now need parliament and government to redouble efforts to get a deal that maintains free and frictionless trade," said Hawes.

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  15. #1435
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    UK Consumer Confidence Improves In September

    UK consumer confidence improved in September, survey results from the market research group GfK showed Friday.

    The consumer confidence index rose to -12 in September from -14 in August. "Since the Brexit referendum we have witnessed a long succession of negative Overall Index scores with the overall trend downwards," Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said. "This month, British consumers appear to be treading water during this wait-and-see run-up to October 31st."

    The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months climbed three points to +2. Likewise, the forecast for personal finances over the coming year gained two points to +4.

    The measure for the general economic situation over the last year also increased two points, to -32. At the same time, expectations for the general economic situation rose three points to -35.

    Further, the major purchase index improved two points to +3. The savings index also rose two points to +23.

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  16. #1436
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    China Manufacturing Sector Expands Most Since Early 2018



    China's manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace since early 2018 in September despite ongoing trade disputes with the United States, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday.

    The Caixin factory Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.4 in September from 50.4 in August. Any score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. This was the highest score since February 2018.

    The official data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the factory sector continued to contract in September. However, the manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 from 49.5 a month ago.

    New orders increased at the fastest rate since March 2018, while new export orders decreased slightly in September, IHS Markit reported. Companies said that the ongoing China-US trade dispute had continued to dampen foreign sales.

    Employment level remained unchanged for the second month in September. Outstanding business increased amid stagnant payrolls and rise in orders.

    Higher volumes of total new work led firms to expand production again in September. The rate of growth was the fastest seen since August 2018.

    Input buying rose for the third month in a row and stocks of purchased items expanded slightly.

    Input costs increased at the end of the third quarter and the output cost remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous month.

    Nonetheless, goods producers continued to express a relatively subdued level of confidence towards future output, as worries persisted over the outcome of the ongoing China-US trade negotiations.

    "Growth in manufacturing demand was mainly driven by the domestic market as China-U.S. trade conflicts still restrained overseas demand," Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, said.

  17. #1437
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    UK Economic Conditions Deteriorate On Weak Manufacturing Activity: BCC

    The UK economic conditions weakened in the third quarter reflecting a marked deterioration in manufacturing sector activity, survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce showed Friday.

    According to Quarterly?Economic?Survey, manufacturing firms reporting increased domestic sales fell to zero. The domestic order balance entered negative territory for the first time in seven years, to -7 in the third quarter. Both are at their weakest since the fourth quarter of 2011.

    The balance of manufacturing firms reporting increased export sales dropped to +3, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2015 and the balance for export orders went negative and came in at its weakest level since the third quarter of 2009.

    The dominant services sector reported a decrease in the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales and orders, and export orders, the survey showed. The domestic sales balance of service providers slid to 15 and the balance for domestic orders dropped marginally to 9 in the third quarter.

    Manufacturers' cashflow position - a key indicator of the financial health of a business, deteriorated. In the services sector, cashflow held steady at a low level.

    "A stuttering services sector coupled with a worrying downturn in manufacturing activity indicates that any bounce back in UK GDP growth from the contraction in the second quarter is likely to be underwhelming at best," Suren?Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said.

    "This is a reality check, not scaremongering or politicking. These are some of the worst figures we've seen in a decade - and jobs, businesses, and the future success of our communities are on the line," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said.

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    Australia Home Loans Climb 3.2% In August

    The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 33,468.

    That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 4.3 percent increase in July (originally 4.2 percent).

    Personal finance commitments fell 2.2 percent in August following a 3.8 percent fall in July and was down 12.9 percent on August 2018.

    The value of new lending commitments for owner occupier dwellings rose 1.9 per cent nationally in August, with rises in all states and territories apart from the Northern Territory.

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    New Zealand Services Sector Slows In September - BusinessNZ

    The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from BusinessNZ showed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 54.4.

    That's down from 54.6 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    Among the individual components of the survey, sales (54.4), supplier deliveries (50.5), stocks (51.8), employment (52.7) and new orders (59.3) all continued to expand last month.

    "The fact that new orders/business (59.3) improved to its highest result since January should assist with general business activity going forward. However, looking more broadly the gap in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors persists. With other key economic data showing a general trend decline, the question becomes to what degree will the services sector be affected by slowing influences elsewhere in the months ahead," BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said.

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    China Consumer Prices Climb 3.0% On Year In September

    Consumer prices in China were up 3.0 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

    That exceeded expectations for 2.9 percent and was up from 2.8 percent in August.

    On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.9 percent - accelerating from 0.7 percent in the previous month.

    The bureau also said that producer prices contracted 1.2 percent on year, matching expectations following the 0.8 percent decline a month earlier.

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