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  1. #1401
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    Japan Manufacturing PMI Sinks Into Contraction - Nikkei

    The manufacturing sector in Japan fell into contraction in May, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Thursday in its preliminary report - posting a manufacturing PMI score of 49.6.

    That's down from 50.2 in April and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line if 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    Individually, output and new orders fell for the fifth straight month, while the business outlook reflected pessimism for the first time more than six years.

    New export orders, backlogs, stocks and quantities of purchases also were in contraction.

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    China Industrial Profits Decline In April

    China's industrial profits decreased in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.

    In April, profits of large industrial firms declined 3.7 percent on year in contrast to an increase of 13.9 percent growth in March.

    Industrial profits fell 3.4 percent in the first four months of 2019 from the same period of last year compared to a decrease of 3.3 percent in three months to March.

    Zhu Hong of the statistics bureau said the decline in profits in April was driven by the timing of Value Added Tax cut.

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    UK Shop Price Inflation Accelerates In May

    UK shop price inflation increased notably in May on non-food prices, the British Retail Consortium reported Wednesday. Shop prices inflation doubled to 0.8 percent in May from 0.4 percent in April.

    Food prices climbed 1.8 percent annually and non-food prices gained 0.2 percent. Food inflation continued to slow but it remained above the 12-month average. At the same time, non-food categories such as furniture and health and beauty follow years of deep discounting.

    Shop price growth in May was the second highest inflation rate seen in the last six years, though it remains well below headline inflation, Helen Dickinson, chief executive at BRC said.

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  4. #1404
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    China Manufacturing PMI Falls Into Contraction

    The manufacturing sector in China turned to contraction in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.4.

    That was shy of expectations for 49.9 and down from 50.1 in April. It also fell below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3 - unchanged from the previous month and in line with expectations.

    The composite index had a score of 53.3, down fractionally from 53.4 a month earlier.

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    Myanmar Manufacturing Sector Accelerates In May - Nikkei

    The manufacturing sector in Myanmar continued to contract in May, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 54.2.

    That's up from 53.7 in April, and it moves farther above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    Individually, operating conditions improved at a solid rate, while there was faster growth in output and new orders. Employment expansion was the quickest in series history.

    At the same time, input costs increased further in May, with the rate of inflation picking up to a six-month high

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    South Korea Inflation Rises 0.2% In May

    Consumer prices in South Korea were up 0.2 percent on month in May, Statistics Korea said on Tuesday - following the 0.2 percent decline in April.

    On a yearly basis, inflation advanced 0.7 percent - accelerating from 0.4 percent in the previous month.

    Core CPI - which excludes volatile food prices - sank 0.2 percent on month and added0.6 percent on year.

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    New Zealand Q1 Volume Of Building Soars 6.2%

    The overall volume of building in New Zealand climbed a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

    That beat forecasts for an increase of 1.1 percent and was up sharply from the upwardly revised 3.4 percent gain in the three months prior (originally 2.7 percent).

    Non-residential building volume rose a seasonally adjusted 9.0 percent, the bureau said, while residential building volume rose a seasonally adjusted 4.3 percent.

    The actual value of total building work was NZ$6.1 billion in the March 2019 quarter - up 16 percent from the March 2018 quarter.

    By region, the actual value of total building work in the March 2019 quarter (compared with the March 2018 quarter) was: NZ$2.5 billion in Auckland - up 26 percent; NZ$595 million in Waikato - up 30 percent; NZ$474 million in Wellington - up 1.5 percent; NZ$950 million in rest of North Island - up 13 percent; NZ$931 million in Canterbury - down 1.0 percent; and NZ$618 million in rest of South Island - up 12 percent. In the year ended March 2019, the national value of residential building work rose NZ$1.1 billion (7.9 percent) when compared with the previous March year - driven by an NZ$861 million (16 percent) increase in Auckland.

    In the year ended March 2019, the national value of non-residential building work rose NZ$923 million (12 percent) when compared with the previous year - driven by a NZ$672 million (25 percent) increase in Auckland.

    The non-residential building types with most growth in the year ended March 2019 (compared with the March 2018 year) were: shops, restaurants, and bars (shops) - up NZ$337 million (41 percent) nationally; hotels, motels, boarding houses, and prisons (accommodation) - up NZ$248 million (40 percent) nationally; and storage buildings - up NZ$199 million (26 percent) nationally.

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    Australia Jobless Rate Steady At 5.2% In May

    The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged from the April reading but missing forecasts for 5.1 percent.

    The Australian economy added 42,300 jobs last month - blowing past expectations for an increase of 16,000 following the increase of 28,400 in the previous month.

    The participation rate was 66.0 percent, surpassing forecasts for 65.8 percent and up from the upwardly 65.9 percent a month earlier (originally 65.8 percent).

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    New Zealand Manufacturing Growth Near Stagnation

    New Zealand manufacturing sector was close to stagnation in May, the latest BNZ survey showed Friday.

    The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 2.5 points to 50.2 in May. This was the lowest score since December 2012.

    The production sub-index declined to 46.4 in May from 50.1 a month ago. This was the lowest since April 2012. A score below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

    As a growth risk indicator it may not be flashing bright red just yet, but it is moving in that direction in taking on a darker shade of amber, Doug Steel, a senior economist at BNZ Research said.

    The PMI sends a warning signal for near term growth via its mix of falling production, near flat new orders, and rising inventory, Steel added. Next week's first quarter GDP should be reasonable, but beyond this downside risks are accumulating.

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    BCC Trims UK Growth Outlook

    The British Chambers of Commerce downgraded its growth outlook for next year as unwinding of historically-high inventory levels amid weak business investment weigh on economic activity.

    In the latest economic forecast, released Monday, the growth projection for 2020 was lowered to 1 percent from 1.3 percent and that for 2021 to 1.2 percent from 1.4 percent.

    However, the growth outlook for 2019 was lifted marginally to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent, citing the exceptionally rapid stock-building ahead of the original Brexit deadline in March.

    Gross domestic product was forecast to remain flat in the second quarter of 2019 after expanding 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

    Over the near-term, the lobby expect that the ongoing Brexit impasse, together with the high upfront cost of doing business in the UK and the running down of excess stock to suffocate investment activity.

    Business investment was expected to decline 1.3 percent this year versus prior forecast of 1 percent drop. Further, the lobby projected 0.4 percent growth next year, before improving to 1.1 percent in 2021.

    Further, trade was set to make a negative contribution as exchange rate volatility, Brexit uncertainty and a subdued global economy, weaken trading conditions for British exporters.

    Export growth was seen at 1.6 percent this year and next and 1.7 percent in 2021, compared to import growth of 4.3 percent in 2019, 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2.2 percent in 2021.

    Nonetheless, consumer spending was forecast to remain resilient on low unemployment and earnings growth to stay above inflation. Household consumption growth outlook was lifted to 1.4 percent for 2019 and to 1.4 percent in 2020.

    The forecast was based on the assumption that the UK avoids a messy and disorderly Brexit.

    "Businesses are putting resources into contingency plans, such as stockpiling, rather than investing in ventures that would positively contribute to long-term economic growth," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said. "This is simply not sustainable."

    Business communities expect the next Prime Minister to quickly find a sensible and pragmatic way forward to avoid a messy and disorderly Brexit, Marshall added.


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    New Zealand Consumer Confidence Drops In Q

    New Zealand's consumer sentiment weakened slightly in the second quarter as households remained downbeat about the economic backdrop, survey data from Westpac showed Tuesday.

    The Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index dropped 0.3 points to 103.5 in June.

    Among sub-components, the indicator for present situation fell to 106.6 from 107.6 a quarter ago. Meanwhile, the expected conditions index rose marginally to 101.4 from 101.3.

    The index measuring current financial situation improved to -4.7 in the second quarter from -8.3. Likewise, the expected financial situation indicator climbed to -3.2 from -6.5.

    The 1-year ahead economic outlook rose slightly to -4.6 from -5.1. At the same time, the 5-year economic outlook dropped to 11.9 from 15.4 in the previous quarter.

    The 'good time to buy' index declined to 17.9 in the second quarter from 23.4 in the preceding period.

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    Japan May Trade Deficit Y967.1 Billion

    Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 967.1 billion yen in May, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday - up 67.5 percent on year.

    That exceeded expectations for a shortfall of 1,207.0 billion yen following the 110.9 billion yen deficit in April.

    Exports were down 7.8 percent on year to 5.835 trillion yen, also beating forecasts for a drop of 8.4 percent following the 2.4 percent decline in the previous month.

    Exports to Asia were down 12.1 percent on year to 3.120 trillion yen, while exports to China alone fell 9.7 percent to 1.148 trillion yen.

    Exports to the United States rose an annual 3.3 percent, while exports to the European Union sank 7.1 percent to 647.475 billion yen.

    Imports sank an annual 1.5 percent to 6.802 trillion yen versus expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent after soaring 6.5 percent a month earlier.

    Imports from Asia fell 3.3 percent on year to 3.100 trillion yen, while imports from China alone eased 0.9 percent to 1.540 trillion yen.

    Imports from the United States dipped an annual 1.6 percent to 792.795 billion yen, while imports from the European Union climbed 8.7 percent to 898.979 billion yen.

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    New Zealand GDP Expands 0.6% On Quarter In Q1

    New Zealand's gross domestic product grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - matching forecasts and unchanged from the previous quarter.

    On an annualized yearly basis, GDP was up 2.5 percent - exceeding forecasts for an increase of 2.3 percent, which would have been unchanged.

    Activity in the goods-producing industries rose 2.0 percent in the March 2019 quarter. The growth was mainly driven by increased activity in the construction industry (up 3.7 percent), its largest increase since the September 2017 quarter. The rise in construction was reflected in investment in non-residential building (up 9.9 percent) and residential buildings (up 2.7 percent).

    Manufacturing activity rose 1.4 percent in the March 2019 quarter, after a 0.4 percent decline in the December 2018 quarter. Increased food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing contributed strongly to the rise this quarter. There were also increases in metal product manufacturing; non-metallic mineral manufacturing; and petroleum, chemical, polymer, and rubber product manufacturing.

    Activity in the service industries rose 0.2 percent in the March 2019 quarter, the slowest growth rate since the September 2012 quarter. Of the 11 service industries, seven recorded growth.

    The main drivers of this quarter's growth were health care and social assistance (up 1.7 percent) and transport, postal, and warehousing (up 1.2 percent). Retail, accommodation, and restaurants fell 0.5 percent. Lower activity in accommodation and restaurants reflected a dip in visitor arrivals to New Zealand in February and March.

    Agriculture, forestry, and fishing production fell 2.3 percent in the March 2019 quarter, after a 0.3 percent fall in the December 2018 quarter. The fall in the latest quarter was due to unfavorable weather conditions. Agriculture (down 2.3 percent), forestry and logging (down 1.2 percent), and fishing (down 0.4 percent) all declined. This was offset by a rise in mining (up 9.6 percent), due to higher exploration activity along with an increase in oil and gas extraction.

    Household spending grew 0.5 percent in the March 2019 quarter, after a 1.0 percent rise in the December 2018 quarter. Growth was subdued this quarter due to lower spending on services (up 0.3 percent). This was the weakest growth in services expenditure since the December 2014 quarter. Spending on durable and non-durable goods increased 1.4 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

    Investment in fixed assets was up 2.4 percent in the March 2019 quarter. Higher construction activity was reflected in higher construction-related investment expenditure. Business investment (all investment less residential buildings) rose 1.9 percent.

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    European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash PMI Data Due

    Flash Purchasing Managers' survey from euro area and public sector finance from the UK are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

    At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit releases France's flash composite PMI data. Economists forecast the index to rise marginally to 51.3 in June from 51.2 in May. At 3.30 am ET, Germany's composite PMI data is due. The composite index is seen at 52.5 in June versus 52.6 a month ago.

    At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is slated to release PMI survey results for euro area. The composite PMI is forecast to rise to 52.0 in June from 51.8 in May.

    In the meantime, industrial output and producer price reports are due from Poland. Industrial production is seen rising 7.5 percent annually in May, following a 9.2 percent rise in April. Producer price inflation is expected to ease to 1.6 percent in May from 2.6 percent a month ago.

    At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK public sector finance data. The budget deficit is expected to narrow to GBP 4.1 billion in May from GBP 5.8 billion in April.

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    China's Private Sector Expands Marginally In June

    China's private sector expanded marginally in June despite contraction in manufacturing, survey data from IHS Markit showed Wednesday.

    The Caixin composite output index fell to 50.6 in June from 51.5 in May. However, a score above 50 indicates expansion. The reading signaled the weakest growth since last October.

    The services Purchasing Managers' Index dropped more-than-expected to 52.0 in June from 52.7 in the previous month. The expected reading was 52.6.

    "The conflict between China and the U.S. impacted business confidence rather heavily," Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group said. "Although its impact on exports hasn't been fully reflected in the short-run, the longerterm situation doesn't look optimistic. Future government policies to stabilize economic growth are likely to focus on new types of infrastructure, consumption and high-quality manufacturing."

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    Philippines Inflation Lowest Since 2017



    Philippines inflation reached its lowest level in nearly two years in June, the Philippine Statistics Authority showed Friday.

    Consumer price inflation eased to 2.7 percent from 3.2 percent in May. In the same period last year, the rate was 5.2 percent. Inflation was forecast to slow moderately to 2.8 percent.

    The June inflation was the weakest since September 2017.

    Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation came in at 3.3 percent in June versus 3.5 percent a month ago.

    Food prices advanced at a slower pace of 2.6 percent annually and education cost declined 4.5 percent. Meanwhile, higher rate were registered in the indices of health, recreation and culture, by 3.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

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    CBI Urges Next UK PM To Act Fast To Get Economy Back On Track



    The next UK Prime Minister should restore confidence and take action to bring the economy back on track, the Confederation of British Industry said in its Business Manifesto published Monday. Carolyn Fairbairn, the CBI's Director General called for a clear direction for the UK and to build a long-term vision that drives in investment and back business as a foundation of a growing, inclusive economy.

    Brexit has stalled progress on the UK economy for three years. A Brexit deal remains a top priority for business, but a broader vision is needed, the lobby noted.

    "Early signals matter. The UK is a fantastic place to do business but we must be honest - the reputation of our country has taken a dent in recent times," Fairbairn said.

    "Our new Prime Minister has a real chance to inject a new lease of life into the UK economy and show the world we are open for investment."

    The manifesto also called for fast action to show world that the UK remains a trusted place to do business and to build a compelling economic vision for the UK of the future.

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    JPMorgan predicts the decline of the dollar era

    The position of the greenback in the foreseeable future may falter, and it even runs the risk of losing the status of the main global reserve currency, analysts at JPMorgan Chase warn.

    "The dollar has been the main global reserve currency for almost 100 years. During this time, many investors, including those outside the United States, have become accustomed to the fact that dollar assets occupy a "higher than market" share in their portfolios. However, we believe that the US currency may lose its unique status due to structural and cyclical reasons, which will lead to a decline in its rate," representatives of the financial institute said.

    "After the end of World War II, the United States became the largest global economy, accounting for a quarter of global GDP. If we add the countries of Western Europe, then this value will increase to 40%. Since then, fast-growing Asia, in the heart of which China is located, has consistently won back the share of the world market from the West, "they added.

    According to experts, as the Asian region develops, the share of transactions in currencies other than the dollar will inevitably grow.

    "In addition, the current US administration has questioned agreements with all major US trading partners - from Mexico and Canada to China and the EU, and also left the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Such unfriendly actions on the part of Washington can induce these states to reduce the share of the dollar in trade calculations," noted JPMorgan experts.

    They believe that the permanent fiscal and trade deficits of the United States can trigger a decline in the dollar against a basket of currencies and gold, and advise investors to diversify their portfolios so that they prefer other currencies in developed markets and in Asia, as well as precious metals.

    However, according to analysts, selling the dollar immediately is also not worth it, because shifts in preferences in financial markets take a very long time, so those who are counting on a quick weakening of the US currency should have extraordinary patience.

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    Japan Industrial Production Slides 3.6% In June



    Industrial output in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 3.6 percent on month in June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tuesday's preliminary reading.

    That missed forecasts for a decline of 1.8 percent following the 2.0 percent gain in May.

    On a yearly basis, industrial production sank 4.1 percent - again missing expectations for a drop of 2.0 percent after sliding 2.1 percent in the previous month.

    Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production, saying that it continues to fluctuate indecisively.

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    Philippines Manufacturing Sector Picks Up Steam In July - Market



    The manufacturing sector in the Philippines continued to expand in July, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Markit Economics revealed on Thursday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.1.

    That's up from 51.3 in June, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    Individually, new order growth was at its strongest in six months, while employment rose for the first time since February.

    Output price inflation was at a two-year low.

    With output and sales growth remaining strong, businesses remained optimistic regarding future activity.

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