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  1. #1361
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    China's growth will slow in 2019 and threatens the financial world

    China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.

    According to forecasts, China's economic growth will slow to 6.3 percent this year and will be the weakest in 29 years. A significant slowdown in growth in China has already been observed. The resumption of negotiations between the United States and China has increased optimism that Washington may agree to suspend the planned tariff increase, which was originally scheduled to take effect this month. However, a comprehensive agreement to end the dispute seems unlikely, given the number of highly controversial and politically sensitive issues. Even if both sides can conclude a long-term trade deal, it will provide only minor relief to the Chinese economy if Beijing cannot increase domestic investment and demand.

    Sources said that China plans to lower its target for economic growth between 6 to 6.5 percent this year. Weak industrial growth and lower consumer spending reduce company profits. Moreover, it also discourages new investment and increases the risk of high job losses. Since earlier growth measures had little impact, we expect Beijing to deploy more incentives in the coming months to prevent a sharp slowdown. More large-scale tax cuts are expected, along with measures to increase consumer demand for products such as household appliances and cars. Both fiscal and monetary policies eased over the past few months and this should begin to spread to the real economy by the second half of this year.

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  2. #1362
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    IMF lowers global growth forecasts, what to expect financial markets

    The International Monetary Fund has reduced its forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 due to weakness in Europe and in some emerging markets, and said that trade tensions could destabilize the world economy even more. This is the second decline in three months. The lender also called a more serious than expected slowdown in the Chinese economy and the possible "problem" Brexit risks that could cause turbulence in financial markets. The IMF expects the growth of the world economy in 2019 to be 3.5 percent, and in 2020, 3.6 percent, which is lower by 0.2 and 0.1 percent, respectively, from forecasts in October last year.

    "The trend of global growth is shifting downward. Escalating trade tensions beyond that already included in the forecast remains a key source of risk. Trade policy uncertainties and concerns about escalation and retaliation will lead to a decrease in industrial investment, disruption of supply chains and a slowdown in productivity growth. As a result, worsening corporate profitability prospects may affect financial market sentiment and further weaken economic growth," the IMF said in a statement.

    The IMF said that growth in the eurozone will be moderate, falling from 1.8 percent in 2018 to 1.6 percent in 2019, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than predicted three months ago. The IMF also lowered its growth forecast in 2019 for developing countries to 4.5 percent, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast and 4.7 percent in 2018. But it kept its growth forecasts for the USA, 2.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2020, indicating continued growth in domestic demand.

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  3. #1363
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    ECB press conference: Highlights of Draghi's comments

    The ECB has left its policy unchanged. We give the main comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi at a press conference.

    Evaluation but not a policy discussion

    "We didn't have to discuss the consequences of the risk balance. Today's meeting was mainly devoted to an assessment: where are we and why are we here, how long will the slowdown take place, will the slowdown worsen or will a lower level wait for us These are the questions that have been asked ".

    Muffled inflation:
    "General inflation is likely to continue to decline in the coming months. Core inflation remains generally subdued, but pressure on labor costs continues to increase and expand amid a high level of capacity utilization and toughening labor markets."

    Mid-term inflation:
    "Looking into the future, we expect core inflation to grow in the medium term, with the support of our monetary policy measures, continued economic growth, and rising wage growth."

    The economic growth:
    "The short-term growth momentum is likely to be weaker than previously thought. In the future, growth in the eurozone economy will continue to be supported by favorable financial conditions, further growth in employment and wages, lower energy prices and continued, albeit somewhat slower, expansion of global activity."

    Stimulation:
    "Significant monetary policy incentives remain necessary to support further increases in domestic price pressure and overall inflation in the medium term. The Board of Governors is ready to use all of its tools, depending on the situation, in order to ensure a constant movement of inflation towards the goal. "

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  4. #1364
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    S & P: The US economy has lost at least $ 6 billion due to the shutter

    Analysts at rating agency Standard & Poor's estimate that the US economy lost at least $ 6 billion during the suspension of government work.

    S & P Global Rating experts believe that as a result of the shutdown, the US budget lost $ 1.2 billion a week since the suspension of government departments led to a decrease in productivity and a low level of business economic activity.

    The shutdown was caused by the reluctance of the US Congress to allocate $ 5.7 billion for primary funding for the construction of a wall between Mexico and the US, while negative consequences, according to S & P experts, have already exceeded the amount requested by President Donald Trump.

    Analysts also noted that, despite the resumption of government agencies, the negative effect of the shutdown is likely to affect financial markets and business confidence in the future of the country's economy.

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  5. #1365
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    China's manufacturing sector alarms currency markets

    China's manufacturing sector activity in January was likely to shrink for the second month in a row, heightening concerns about the risks associated with a slowdown in China and a threat to the global economy.

    Industrial leader Caterpillar has become another major international company that warned of declining demand in China, followed by chip makers and Apple. According to the average forecast of 33 economists, the official index of purchasing managers in China (PMI) in January will drop to 49.3 points from 49.4 points in December. January figures may be the weakest since February 2016. In addition, in front of the big New Year holidays and many businesses just close. Some are closing even earlier than usual, because the protracted trade war with the United States has a negative effect on orders. If Washington and Beijing do not reach a compromise that will ease the pressure on tariffs, many businesses are likely to close down forever.

    In any case, weak PMI data increases the likelihood that Beijing can accelerate and intensify policy mitigation and stimulation efforts this year. Nevertheless, there remains a high probability that in the coming months business conditions in China may deteriorate, growth may fall below 6 percent in the first half of the year from 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and stabilize only at the end of the year. This is confirmed by sources in the government, who report that the authorities are planning to reduce the growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from 6.5 percent in 2018.

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  6. #1366
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    The pound will continue to try to gain a foothold, and the dollar is waiting for the Fed report

    The pound will continue to attempt to strengthen its position after fears of the "problematic" Brexit have declined, and the dollar will weaken on the eve of the Fed meeting.

    Last week, the pound reached $ 1.3218, the highest since mid-October, in the hope that London will be able to make a deal with the EU. The deadline set for Brexit, March 29, is likely to be extended, and the main question for the pound is when and how the renewal decision will be made. As for the dollar, the focus is now shifting back to key events that threaten the dollar with more serious consequences, such as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, US-China trade negotiations, and the US jobs report. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

    Markets are waiting for signals about the future of the Fed's policy after recent official comments made it clear that rates of rate hikes this year will be reduced amid growing uncertainty about the state of the US economy, the global economy and fragile financial markets. Experts estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in 2019 as very low, although some still expect two approaches in the second and fourth quarters. The dollar may face pressure if the Fed decides to highlight the negative effects of the closure of the US government in its report.

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  7. #1367
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    Oil trades in different directions on conflicting factors

    The price of Brent crude is showing mixed trends at the beginning of a new trading week. Quotes of the asset vary over a wide range of $61.30-62.30 per barrel. Market participants regain data on the growth in the number of drilling rigs in the United States and follow the news on trade negotiations between the United States and China.

    Markets are awaiting the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the next round of which is scheduled for February 14-15. Doubts that trade disputes will finally be resolved put pressure on the course of oil. An additional negative came from the report of oil and gas service company Baker Hughes, which reflected an increase in the number of active drilling rigs by 7 to 854 units.

    At the same time, oil received some support following the words of OPEC President and the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Suhail Al-Mazrui that the oil market will be balanced in the first quarter of this year.

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  8. #1368
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    Euro Rises Following German GDP Data

    Destatis has published German preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and wholesale price index for January at 2:00 am ET Thursday.

    After these data, the euro rose against its major rivals.

    The euro was trading at 125.39 against the yen, 1.1381 against the franc, 1.1294 against the greenback and 0.8768 against the pound around 2:01 am ET.

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  9. #1369
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    China CPI Slows To 1.7% On Year In January

    Consumer prices in China were up 1.7 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

    That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.9 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

    On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.5 percent following the flat reading in December.

    Producer prices were up 0.1 percent on year, shy of expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and down from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

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  10. #1370
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    U.S. Dollar Falls On Trade Talk Hopes

    The U.S. dollar depreciated against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday, as investors awaited trade talks between the U.S. and China beginning this week, after making some progress in talks held last week.

    A statement from the White House said high level U.S.-China trade talks this week led to "progress between the two parties", but noted "much work remains."

    Trump said that the meetings were very productive and he is ready to extend the March 1 deadline and hold off a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods.

    Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due on Wednesday, with investors awaiting more clues on its rate hike path for this year.

    The greenback declined to a 5-day low of 1.2920 against the pound, down from a 5-day high of 1.2899 hit at 5:45 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 1.32 level.

    The greenback slipped to a weekly low of 1.0029 against the franc, following a high of 1.0055 seen at 5:15 pm ET. The next likely support for the greenback is seen around the 0.99 level.

    Pulling away from an early high of 1.1289 against the euro, the greenback fell to a 5-day low of 1.1325. On the downside, 1.15 is possibly seen as the next support level for the greenback.

    The greenback dropped to a 5-day low of 1.3225 against the loonie, near 2-week lows of 0.6893 against the kiwi and 0.7159 against the aussie, from its early highs of 1.3255, 0.6855 and 0.7133, respectively. The greenback is poised to challenge support around 1.29 against the loonie, 0.70 against the kiwi and 0.74 against the aussie.

    On the flip side, the greenback held steady against the yen, after having advanced to 110.58 at 6:55 pm ET. The pair was valued at 110.46 at Friday's close.

    Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan core machine orders fell 0.1 percent on month in December - beating expectations for a decline of 1.0 percent following the flat reading in November.

    On a yearly basis, core machine orders were up 0.9 percent - shy of forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent following the 0.8 percent increase in the previous month.

    The U.S. markets remain closed for Presidents Day holiday.


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  11. #1371
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    EUR/USD: real weakness of the greenback or vain hopes for progress in the negotiations?

    In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the United States, and then positive news about the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then forced it to switch to defense mode against most of the currencies from the G10.

    Against the background of improving global risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the level of 1.1250, recovered above the level of 1.1300 and today is trying to gain a foothold above this mark.

    Last week, the dollar received the main blow from the internal statistics, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast values. In particular, in December, retail sales in the United States declined at the fastest rate in almost a decade, which has led to renewed talk about preparing for a slowdown in the US economy and the best times for the greenback are over.

    It is assumed that this week a weak report on retail sales will continue to put pressure on the dollar, especially since the minutes of the Fed's January meeting, which will be published this Wednesday, are likely to confirm the regulator's intention to maintain a wait-and-see position in March.

    At the same time, the main negative factor for the single European currency is the fact that the ECB and the European Commission have recently revised downward forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the region, which in turn postpones the ECB interest rate hike to a later date. In addition, there is still tension on the political scene: the UK's uncontrolled exit from the EU is still on the agenda. Investors are not optimistic about the possibility of introducing trade duties on European cars from the United States.

    Currently, positive market expectations regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China are the main factor supporting the euro.

    Last Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced significant progress in this direction.

    It should be noted that previously something similar could already be observed. One can only hope that the White House's comments on the "good pace" of the talks (which, by the way, only two weeks are left) are a sign of a real breakthrough, not false promises.

    Thus, to some extent, the further growth of the EUR/USD pair will depend on whether the parties enter into a trade agreement or the United States will extend the deadline for signing it.

    However, according to experts, the "bulls" on the euro are not particularly counting on anything, since only a breakthrough above the mark of 1.15 will be a sign of upward dynamics.

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  12. #1372
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    Australia Wage Prices Gain 0.5% On Quarter In Q4

    Wage prices in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

    That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged.

    On a yearly basis, wage prices advanced 2.3 percent - unchanged and matching forecasts.

    Private sector wages were up 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.3 percent on year, while public sector wages rose 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year.

    The highest index rise at an industry level was in financial and insurance services (0.9 percent) and the lowest in accommodation and food services (0.1 percent).

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  13. #1373
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    Australia Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 5.0% In January

    The jobless rate in Australia was a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged and in line with expectations.

    The Australian economy added 31,900 jobs last month - blowing away forecasts for an increase of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 16,900 jobs in December.

    Full-time employed persons increased 65,400 to 8,743,100 and part-time employed persons decreased 26,300 to 4,008,700.

    Unemployed persons increased 6,600 to 673,500.

    The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate fell 0.2 pts to 8.1 percent, while the monthly underutilization rate fell 0.1 pts to 13.2 percent.

    The participation rate was 65.7 percent, exceeding expectations for 65.6 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

    Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.6 million hours to 1766.4 million hours.

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    Euro Mixed Ahead Of German GDP Data

    At 2:00 am ET Friday, Destatis will release German final GDP data for the fourth quarter. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro rose against the greenback and the yen, it held steady against the franc and the pound.

    The euro was worth 125.64 against the yen, 1.1351 against the franc, 0.8698 against the pound and 1.1341 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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